Election in Pakistan

Twisted irony:

Now that the MMA won in Baluch/NWFP, is it conceivable that many Pakistanis who cannot stand the harsh social policies of MMA combine would cross over to Afghanisthan and become sort of refugees; It used to be the other way around a while back.

Reply dost-mittar #29

``That`s because the leader of the moderates is a Kumbhkarn in his sleep-in phase!``

Kaun?????? Not hamara Atalji, surely...

The main organisation suspected without proof in the Bali bombing is an Islamist party which openly states that it aims to establish a panIslamic state in all of SE Asia. The establishment of an ideal Islamic state is the repeatedly stated baseline aim of many Islamist parties.

I doubt such a fundamental charter will be moderated, it may perhaps be toned down temporarily in the interest of policy but as an ultimate aim, it will only strengthened by the taste of power. Why doesnot someone ask Messrs Qazi Hussain or Munir Hassan directly about this and see what they say? And I am curious will their reply be any different from the normal religious belief of laymen Pakistanis?

That is nothing unusual statement from Qazi Hussein Ahmed. Within MMA, Jamaat-e-Islami has urban look and urban support and their statements are usually nore tuned to urban masses. Moreover, Qazi sSaheb is well-known collaborator of ISI in foreign policy issues. During Vajpai`s Lahore yatra, Qazi was acting upon the advice of his handlers because it was against Musharraf`s wishes, mainly to create rift between NS and military leading to Kargil and overthrow.
The military-mulah nexus is well in-tact on the basis of Kashmir and internal Pakistani politics. Military will be able to use MMA strength in Pakistan more readily now than before against any group deviating from military inspired internal and external policies.

``ll MMA accept Zubaida Jalal as PM? she seems to be front runner now alongwith Zafar Jamali .coz for MMA, woman as head of state not acceptable..... if she beocms PM , do we see this an effort to damage Benazir`s charm as one & only big woman leader.........

dost-mittar: The chance of modration for religious parties under current socio-political situation is minimal. Their voting block is also mainly on the basis of Islam first, Islam the solution, Islam the ideology and anti-west posture. The moderation in foreign policy is possible if the situation in Afghanistan, Kashmir, Palestine and Chechniya changes to their delight which does not have much chance in near future. At home front, more poverty, more frustration with economy or unemployment and the proliferation of western culture in small segment of society provides ammunition to religious right and translates into vote. Once a sizable vote block does not have bank accounts and no stake in riba-free banking, voting in favor of parties wanting Islamic banking is no problem for moderate Muslims as well. In democracy, they will have to stick to their agenda to win whatever percent of vote they can get. If their position in power structure is made permanent, like military is trying for themselves through NSC, or a khilafat/ religious kingdom type permanent mullah role such as in Saudi Arabia, taking the pressure off from winning popular support could turn many to moderation. I quote one of Musharraf statement and just change military to mullah:
[You need to bring military in (constitutional role through NSC), to keep military out (overthrowing elected governments)]
For Fazloo and his ilk, Musharraf has set an example. They could possibly ask an Iranian type guarantee:
[You need to bring mullah in (constitutional role through National Religion Council), to keep mullah out ]
Then you might try to keep feudals out by bringing them in some sort of National Agriculture Council.
And then to keep India out of interfering in Pakistani affairs..............oooooooooops!!!
Many of the mullahs have their children well-educated in the west and even having semi-western lifestyle. This is more common with Jamaat-e-Islami mullahs than other deobandi groups since the founder of JI, Maulana Maudoodi`s children got the best education available in USA. Qazi Saheb now can not be criticized from within JI for copying Maudoodi`s example. For outside public, it is not a major issue to decide their vote for or against anybody. Even BB and her family with all that liberal image have not opened a single additional school on their lands for girls or boys. Their tenants/ serfs are no better off in any way than others in that area. This personal hypocrisy does not effect PPP voting block much also because she does believe and practice educating women through government/ official chanel.

Reply Dost-mittar #25

``The experience in most countries is that extremists moderate when they come to power.``

Dost-mittarji - true of most of the factions, but even a few remaining hard line is enough to make a lot of trouble - look at Iran`s stalled progress, or even hamare haaN ki kahani. I get the feeling that Vajpayee, Swaraj etc. would have been delighted to make the beej the equivalent of the Christian Democrats (incrementally and by stealth), but that wasn`t what EVERYBODY wanted, and all it took was a few to derail that. Regards

Reply Stuka #8

“Why just Lallu Yadav? I was called Khaki Knicker behind my back by certain ``nose in the air`` friends who just happened to be related to Congresswallahs.”

Main kahna nahin chahtha thha, but now that you mention….(did they call you ChuddaaaaN? I bet they diiiiiid…)

But the rise of these parties is a clear indication that the Nehruvian parties (I include Basu’s bhadra lok CPI mob in this) failed in India – and perhaps they failed because they didn’t address the people’s concerns, in fact they had little respect for the people’s opinions when compared with their own enlightened ones.

For eg, how many Indians on chowk actually care all that much whether there is mandir or a masjid in Ayodhya? (I couldn’t give a rat’s ar$e, dunno about you.) I find it hard to believe that anybody would get aggro about it, yet the fact is, it IS a major issue for many people – and they voted for a party which said that it would address it seriously. (Vaisai beej is not living up to promise, but that is another issue…how long since anybody accused Kaangress of secularism, after all...)

I dunno about Pakistan (would be interested in hearing from you folks by the way) – does the higher profile of the MMA etc mean that some issues which ordinary people think should be on the agenda are now going to be discussed in a meaningful way? (This doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll happen – discussion really takes the shine off some ideas, IMO…) If so, WHAT issues?

the mullahs are back...aaah!

#23 by sameerJB

sameer: ``Dozakh ka azab and Janat ki Hawa`` are ultimate thing which we believe going to happen and its totally diffrent to this discussion! i didnt mean to disagree with u in totality, although perhaps not as much u have but we also have interaction with JI at various level and there are ppl at top level who understand moderation factor of Islam and they also understand if like Mr Zia ul Haq they just keep shouting Islam, Islam and do nothing to solve ppl problems, they are going to end up same as some of the other parties. However, nominating Maulana Fazrul Rahman for PM is not a wise move.

Dr Atta# i have no doubt about uor much familirity with him but still theory dont make much sense that he is minister because of JI. will he continue as minister if JI is part of colation?

Zakkk: Thanks for clarifying abput ANP and BNM but PML (N) being right of center and interest in seeing the governemnt failing will habe no interest in challenging JI workers or madrassah students. At least 5 MMA members owe their victories to PML (N) backing.
Nawaid: I know JI up close and personally. Pakistan will be more like an Islami Jamiaat-e-Tuliba running student union of a college or a university, if JI is part of the ruling coalition.
I don`t think it is logical not to talk about that has not happened yet, like you seem to be suggesting. What about, ``Musalmano dozakh ke azab se daro`` when that has not happened yet either?
I am much more familiar with Dr. Ata, including personally, than you think.

Sameer the BNM (H), ANP and to a lesser extent PML(N) in Punjab are also worker parties.

#5 by Urstruly:

thanks for the link…think the columnist has let his optimism get in the way of reason…

personally what mr haqqani says in this and in the previous column may be ...just maybe …closer to the reality as it emerges in the coming months

http://www.jang.net/editorial/index1.cfm?ed_fullpath=http://www.jang.com.pk/jang/oct2002-daily/15-10-2002/editorial/index.html&top_fullpath=http://www.jang.com.pk/jang/oct2002-daily/15-10-2002/top.htm&cont_fullpath=http://www.jang.com.pk/jang/oct2002-daily/15-10-2002/cont.htm

over the long term...the occupation of the army has to go once and for all...otherwise...new faces playing same old tricks on the poor awaam yet again!

#18 by sameerJB

i m surprised that Govt not formed yet and u are more worried about New Year eve celebrations... and whats the harm having some respect of holy month.......MMA workers! I dont recall seeing any party`s worker giving importance to Law of land, PPP and MQM, we had seen both party`s worker doing the same thing in past , who knows MMA workers might turnout little better as we never gave them chance....Islamic Revolution, i dont see it coming in near future , It would be very stupid from MMA to form Taliabn style Govt in Pak, are they stupid enough to do that.....i dont think so......Revoluiton involves thousand of factors and i dont think MMA is going to disturb the basic structure we have now and not necessary if they want to they can do that easily.......however, we might see few changes which might direct more towards Islamic fundamentals, and i dont see any reason to get frightend by those basic Islamic steps.

# Dr Attau Rahman...i think Dr Atta was very famous in his field long before coming into ministry and he proved with his performance that he was not a wrong choice........theory that Dr Atta was selected in October 1999 because of his assosiation with JI not making much sense as it was very early for the military Govt to associate itself to any party.

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Urstruly:

I`m not sure exactly what side you`re on: peace loving or your version of Islam peace or no peace. If its the latter IMO you`re a part of the problem.

Another thing, why does everyone have to agree on everything ? As corny as it sounds why can`t the different Muslim sects and everyone in general learn to live with their differences and diversity. If the Qazi doesn`t like women without their heads covered on TV, why doesn`t he switch to the Koran channel :)

Keeping people away from information and external influences is next to impossible in this day and age and why would you want to keep your people isolated and un-creative ?

This is the fundamental question. Why is the Qazi insecure ? How long does he think he can keep the people secluded and following his interpretatioon of Islam... Look at Iran, even though the Mullahs have had power for so long, people are still secretly doing what they want to and the younger generation desperately wants the control of the Mullahs to stop. And its going to happen sooner or later.

As far as the ideological differences go, the people are more easy going than the religous leaders. Its the religous leaders who have always fueled hatred and now they`re joining arms- the differences just don`t go away for the experts, especially since they haven`t gone away in 1400 years.

If the shias wanted shia rule the would move to Iran. they like other minorities don`t mind living in a plural society (even if ruled by a non-syed, shudder) as long as they can do what they want, beat themselves up every Muharram, do their niyaaz`s and majalis etc.

Were u a PPPia in college ?

i believe Abida Husian should come into NA by using women allocated seats..after all she work very hard to get 33% marks to pass her BA exam from university in Multan,,,,its more difficult to get some educational degree in this age if u were unable to get one in uor earlier years studing in UK. Some ppl think she couldnt get the BA degree earlier because she was more busy as incharge of various ministries inlcuding most important of information and serving embassdor to country like USA.

macgupta #10:
[Does the significance of the losses described here outweigh the significance of those who happened to win ? ]
No. Actually in my opinion, the significance of winners, particularly of MMA outweigh significance of the losers. Here is my take on it.
The biggest winner, PML (Q) or King`s party is made up of local leaders, with practically no organization, no district wise offices and most importantly no workers. The only parties who have workers are PPP (P), MQM and MMA (Particularly the Jamaat-e-ISlami component in addition to easy access to tap into madrassah students who run in hundred of thousands). What difference it make?
It makes hell lot more difference for committed, determined and self-righteous workers of MMA moving from a status of protest and anti-establishment to become the workers of ruling party and establishment. Only party in a position to challenge the unruly stret power of MMA alligned workers is PPP (P) except in Karachi and Hyderabad where MQM can easily match and exceed the street power of MMA. Basically, given the weak law enforcing agencies, the MMA alligned workers will have free hand all across Pakistan, except Karachi and Hyderabad, once MMA is sharing power. What does street power for MMA alligned workers means?
First of all, the law of the land has never been important to them even when they were anti-establishment. The efforts to impose dogmatic social and moral values according to their own and varied interpretations is a sacred duty - god`s will, and therefore requires every worker to play his/(usually not her) part to this end. Any restriction on this duty is considered anti-religion and disregarded.
Since PPP (P) workers and stymied from activities, the field is free for MMA workers to rule, now with power on their back. Ist test will be coming shortly during upcoming Ramzan (fasting) month. How far will they go to impose the ``respect`` for ramzan is not difficult to guess? The word new year celebrations will be almost deleted from lingua franca because of the much greater risk of consequences.
This is just a sample of coming of Islamic street revolution in Pakistan and how it will effect Pakistanis. The strength of MMA in assemblies is now meaningless. They have broken the barrier or crossed the threshold to the corridors of power in Pakistan. Before this, they had to rely exclusively on military establishment and strongmen like Zia.
I guess, there is no need to explain the significance of winners on foreign policy, India-Pakistan relations and economy.
Regards,
Sameer

Karakoram

Yes I think that another attack on another Imam Bargah or a mosque is just about to happen. CIA, RAW, and pak establsishment all have stakes in it. But my gutt feeling tells me that this time neither fiqah jaafria nor sunnis will let go of each other so easy even if such a horrendous act occurs. I think mullahs know very well that there are no second chances in life.

In my opinion, as far as I have understood political Islam, the doctrinal (fiqhai) differences are not so great - at this level Shias have a problem with the vilayat (rule) of a non-syyed but in this case I think they will be pragmatic - traditionally they have supported PPP, a non-syyed and worst a woman ugghhh...

Urstruly:
I read the link you posted for temporal. Lets see what the Qazi does and who he thinks the Zaalim are.

As far as the ittehad of the religous parties go.... lets see how long that lasts- This was a marriage of convenience, there are serious ideological differences between the sects of Islam. Any move to make religous edicts compulsory and enforced by the sate, like namaaz, banning of naswaar etc. will not go down with all groups.

Also the article talks big about Shias and Sunnis getting along from now on. Thats fine... as long as the Sunni Militant groups who were responsible for Shia killings do not rear their ugly heads again- otherwise watch the shias leave MMA fast. IMO the Shia leaders are playing it safe, by joining the MMA the Shias are trying to protect their community by having the other Sunni groups control their anti- Shia extremists. Shias are also pressuring the govt. to catch extremist sunnis who are killing Shias, even though some of those extremists belong to other groups within the MMA, because they realistically know that each one of these groups (including themselves) believes that their interpretation is correct. And some of these groups even believe in violence to spread their interpretation.

If the MMA can get the different Islamic sects to agree on a common interpretation of Islam and the steps to take to reach there that will be nothing short of a miracle. I seriously doubt that will happen.

Also this article talked nothing about the common man`s problems just about how cable tv, indian channels, frustration, behayee etc. will be solved- What about economics, khana peena, overpopulation, real world issues.

This is just my opinion.
Wait and see- the Qazi has no vision.

BTW, I don`t think Temporal will agree to that article, but thats for him to answer.

so its seems after getting rid of Sharif Brothers now we have to stuck with Choudhary Brothers , Shajoo will b PM and Pervez CM....i always thought better to have Umer Sharif and Babra Sharif rather then Abba ji & bhiya ji,,,but what subsitute we have for Choudhary brothers.......Nighat Choudhary(the classical dancer) &..............

On a second note! as mentioned by Ali Choudhary of Urdupoint that in earlier yrs we use to heard that ``Zalimo, Qazi Araha hai`` and we always thought how can Qazi can come in the presence of so many Zalims....but guss what `` Zalimo, Qazi agaya hai``.

Yeah, I did mean Makhdoom Khaliquzzaman. The family is old time Muslim League. They are with PML (Q) now?

#8:

Do you Mean Makhdoom Khaliquzzaman?
If you do his brother (or is it cousin) might become the next PM of pakistan!

Anybody read Pakistan:Eye of the storm yet?
Oh yeah if you want real detailed election info, I recommend http://www.heraldelections.com
or the Jang site

Any party having 5 or more candidates for the top slot is not really a party in parliamentary system. It is a union of pragmatists, opportunists and hypocrites. PML (Q) is one such winning party which is more than ready to suppoer an outsider, Faroq Leghari, even before trying to win the top slot for one of their own. PML (Q) is most loaded with old timers. Interestingly PML (N) with only 14-15 seats and MMA with 46 seats have higher percent of first timers than PML (Q) or PPP (P).
Raja Zafar-Ul-Haque was never a potential PM candidate as the aouthor suggests. Farooq Leghari was aleways front runner for PM even with the noise Mian Azhar was making.
ZafarA: Within MMA, it is nostly JUI, a pro-Taliban deobandi party that has won most seats from NWFP and Balochistan. Jamaat-e-Islami, another mostly deobandi urban group is second but owes its victories in Punjab, I guess 4 seats, to support from PML (N). Third in line is barelvi party of Shah Ahmed Noorani winning one or two Karachi seats. In addition to MMA, two more religious groups have won one seat each, those of Tahir Ul Qadri from Lahore and Azam Tariq of Spah-e-Suhaba from Jhang.
jamaat-e-Islami`s chief has long standing relations with ISI including support for Gulbuddin Hekmatyar faction in Afghanistan, to Harkat ul Ansar, to Al-badar to the defeat fo NS in 1995 when he refused to join hands with NS, at the behest of ISI despite most jamaati high command wanting to join NS against PPP. The induction of a Jamaati sympathizer, Prof. Ata Ur Rehman, a retired chemistry professor, being picked as minister of science and technology from nowhere did shed some light on Musharraf-military-JI connection.
PML (Q) fought elections strictly on biradri basis and candidates were selected primarily on that basis. Because Mian Azhar and Ch. Shujaat come from two competing baradris, both used their influence to award party tickets to their own baradris in which Ch. Shujaat had much upper hand. The whole reason for Mian Azhar`s hoopla and on the top of PML (Q) was to oppose NS support in Lahore, in which he failed.

Does the significance of the losses described here outweigh the significance of those who happened to win ?

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Anyone familiar with Sindh politics??? What happened to the Khaliquzzamans? They have always been big players but I soo no sign of them this time.


Zafar: lol..Very accurate... Why just Lallu Yadav? I was called Khaki Knicker behind my back by certain ``nose in the air`` friends who just happened to be related to Congresswallahs.

To add to this Ayaz Amir who was leading throughout the day of counting, suddenly lost the next morning by 2 thousand votes. Arbab Jehangir the undefeated lota of NWFP Politics, his son was defeated by the MMA, so was a ANP candidate from Bannu Baz Khan, again undefeated since 1990 or 88, if I remember right. Arbab Ayub Jan a National Alliance candidate who has won every election since 1985 lost both National and provincial. Pir Sabir Shah PML(N) NWFP Chief and former Chief Minister who was contetsing for both provincial and National seats, and was undefeated since 1985 AND had the support of the MMA lost both seats and has since resigned as PML(N) NWFP Chief.

In case of Abbas Sarfaraz my friends tell me his supporters were providing everything from free transport to free sewing machines as a ``incentive`` for people to vote for him! On a sad note the defeat of the late Umer Asghar Khans party was a sad event, polling only 4 thousand votes in Abbotabad his brother was way down the list and didn`t even come close to winning.

In Lahore it seems Lahoris said a big no to money politics and lotas, despite massively outspending his opponent Akram Zaki, Humayun Akhtar narrowly kept his Lahore seat, the same could not be said for most PML(Q) people like the Party Leader Mian Azhar.

Although Farooq Leghari performed well in his hom constituency, his party won few seats outside Dera Ghazi Khan. That to despite formidable opposition from a coalition of PML(N) and PPP as well as opponents from within his own family.

Interesting article.

Just a word of caution to the wise. Do not be so sure that the losers of this election have learned their lessons, because if the gravevine is to be believed, then there is a serious disquiet in the land. Knowing one of the candidates, who lost and was considered a favorite to be Prime Minister, for nearly forthy years and considering him as a family friend and a family elder, it is safe to say that the leopard hardly changes its spots!

It is safe to suggest that the gentleman, who lost will be back when this parliament is dissolved and he might just be elected. He had lost once before, from the same seat, and since that seat is considered as ``family seat`` he will contest elections from there again. This is even more interesting, because his ``family seat`` is not really a family seat as the family hails from a different part of the province and the seat actually belgongs to his nephew, whose family really comes from that particular district ! How that transpired is another interesting story, but is not to be recounted here.

Elections in Pakistan are interwoven with Byzantine subtexts and their meaning is only lucid if seen in the proper perspective through the correct prism, otherwise everything is opaque. There are reasons and then there are rationales, why certain people lost the elections and if one is well versed in the rhymes of the Pakistani electoral history, it becomes clear that nothing happens in Pakistan without an explantion. Everything becomes more transparent if the right questions are asked, which end up unraveling the mysteries that have traditionally cloaked Pakistani elections, but in order to do so, a person needs to know what those ``right questions`` are and more importantly, how to ask them, while knowing the answers in the first place!

For somewhere, between the fiction of the moment and the reality of the present lies truth and to find the truth, one has to seduce the lies, which surround and guard her and the discovery of the truth, in Pakistani politics, is like the art of seduction and rewards of this seducation, like any other seduction, goes to those, who are patient and know what they want!

Ciao

temporal

I think you will agree to this:


http://akhbar.urdupoint.com/columns/ali_chaudhry/14-10-02.shtml

Any comments on the greater profile of the religious parties this time round?

I get the feeling (correct me if I`m wrong) that this is something similar to Indian politics throwing up Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mayawati - povs and agendas that the elite definitely doesn`t like (probably with good reason), but an inconveniently accurate expression of the people`s will. So perhaps difficult in the short term, but at least something real to work from.

Interesting!
I did not know so many of these guys lost. As far as getting into the parliament is concerned I think it should be easy for Abida Hussein because women`s seats get assigned according to the party victory ratio. Others will probably make it in through by-elections on seats that would be vacated by people winning from more than one locations. I think the composition of this parliament will end up being similar if not exactly the same.

Finally an article that concentrates on the results, and not on conspiracy theories.

The removal of as many bigwigs as possible, in the long term, is a good sign. Democracy means getting rid of people who have not delivered. Whether they are secular, religious, urban, rural etc. should not give them any advantage or disadvantage. The only thing that should count is whether they were honest, and whether they delivered.

The next time these gusy compete in elections, they will now know, that it is not their birthright to be elected.