The Beginning of the End of the Kashmir Problem

For Pakistani and Indian chowksters alike:

On a continuous Indian blaming Pakistan of cross- border terrorism (like for instance by Veeresh at # 11), let me give chowksters a Pakhtoon analogy. I hope its simple enough to be understood by all.

In a Jirga, a tribal household of commoners complained that the powerful family of the Maliks living upstream of canal does not let the water flow downstream and as a result their crops were dying and they did not have enough water to drink and use for various household chores. The jirga summoned the Malik family. The following are the proceedings of the Jirga:

The Malik family rep immediately blamed the accuser that their 10 year old son threw a rock at their Landcruiser that scratched the glass.

The commoner said, ``he was sorry that the son got upset and did that and I have rebuked him for that, how about opening the water for downstream users?``

The Malik stated, ``but whenever his family is going out in the Landcruiser, the accuser`s children are making faces at them.``

The commoner said, ``OK boss I am sorry for this and will reprimand the kids for that, but how about opening the water.?``

At this, the powerful Malik said, ``your goats are dirty and drop the droppings everywhere on the road``.

As the poor commoner looked at the Jirga elders in protest, the Malik continued, ``In fact your crimes are so many that I ask the Jirga that you be sent into exile out of our tribal lands``.

;)

Despite the recent moves by both countries, peace is likely to remain as elusive as it has ever been. It is highly unlikely that either India or Pakistan will accept anything less than their stated positions, which is why the dispute prolonged for 55 years in the first place. And although India can sell the LoC-as-international-border idea to its masses, the MMA and assorted Jihadis will make it impossible for Mushy to sell the same idea in Pakistan. There are too many vested interests (amongst which that Paki Army is the biggest) around who`d like to keep the pot boiling in Kashmir. Anyone expecting the contrary is simply living in a fool`s paradise.

The way things are going, it`s going to be difficult for India to resist the urge to attack Pakistan and settle the vexed issue of cross-border terrorism once and for all. If India manages to hit Pakistan decisively, it could force Pakistan to negotiate permanent peace with it on it`s own terms, which in turn would effectively defang the separatist movement in Kashmir. India could then negotiate greater autonomy for Kashmir within the ambit of the Indian Union. As for Pakistan`s nuclear threat, given the American stranglehold on its policies, it would be extremely difficult for Pakistan to use nukes. Also, Pakistan`s nuclear threat remains potent only as long as it manages to hold India off. Once India crosses the red line, that myth would effectively stand demolished. As regards the international ramifications of such a course, a strong economy can take care of that, and given the fact that western interests (primarily the US) are significantly larger and firmly entrenched in India, the US would best like to keep the applecart intact.

Given the past history of India-Pakistan relations, this scenario is a real possibility. I foresee this happening sometime in the next 2-5 years, or worse, immediately following the next major terrorist attack on India.

Ahmadzai: A series of Bomb blasts take place in the financial capital of India. The perpetrators are helped by ISI as per Pakistani reports and currently live in Pakistan. Hundreds of people died, and the President of Pakistan gives Dawood Ibrahim citizenship of Pakistan.

I don`t know about Pakhtoons, but the life of our people is not that cheap that we compare the deaths of hundreds to goat droppings. Tterrorism in India is a real problem. Our leaders are eunuchs. That is definitely our misfortune. But the common people seem to have more of sense of honor than the Hijra duo of Advani and Vajpayee.

Dost-Mittarji, thought provoking.

Reply harish #18

``Given the past history of India-Pakistan relations, this scenario is a real possibility. I foresee this happening sometime in the next 2-5 years, or worse, immediately following the next major terrorist attack on India. ``

I think you are a bit sanguine about the nukes, but even then...

The scenario you set out means that one of the best ways his rivals and enemies have of getting rid of Musharraf is to organise a terrorist attack on India. And who are these rivals and enemies? The same people who have issued fatwas against Pervy, that is to say, your favourite extremists and mine. Zara sochiye.

Stuka at # 21:

An FIR against Advani is lying registered in a police station in Sindh, Pakistan. If Pakistan asks India to hand him over to it, would India allow that under current level of hostility or even otherwise under peace even under an agreement of extradition?

dost-mittarji
``The leaders of the religious parties, contrary to the opinion in India and elsewhere, are not insane men but politicians who are capable of being flexible and making compromises; the leader of the MMA has already lent his support for holding talks with India. ``

The JI chief Qazi Hussein explained that the reason is that US is the larger enemy and Pakistan cannot fight both the US and India - so to be able to fight the US, he favors cooling things down with India. No recognition of common interests here or of potential of mutual benefit - its a mere `tactical` position. JI is closely linked with Hizb Mujahiddeen and JI chief Qazi Hussein was asked by Hizb to help settle intra-Huzb squabbles. Ideologically people like him cannot give up armed jihad.

--

Similarly I disagree with a number of other premises here but donot want to rain on any parade. Peace process chalta hai tho chalne do.

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SOme confirmation of my scepticism from in-the-loop think tank.
BTW, does not mean that Vajpayee was wrong to reach out to Indian kashmiris and indicate that people-to-people contacts + trade may be OK. Just that optimism about J&K solution is misplaced:

http://www.stratfor.com/corporate/index.neo?page=premium&storyId=217256

Armitage Visit Chills U.S.-Indian Relations
May 13, 2003


During his recent tour of South Asia, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage signaled that the United States is strengthening its bonds with Islamabad -- a key ally in the war against al Qaeda -- rather than with New Delhi. As a result, India likely will seek to forge new alliances and reinforce old ones with countries like China, Russia and France.

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Ahmadzai:

When was the FIR registered? And for what? When did Pakistan bring it up? Are you comparing an FIR registered in 1950 to the orchestrater of Bomb blasts?

Look, you think we are idiots? Why doesn`t Pakistan ask interpol for a red corner notice for Advani? You will laughed right out of their offices. Interpol accepted a Rred Corner notice for Dawood.

The problem you people have is that you lie to yourselves so often that you end up believing your own lies.

Reading the comments on cross border terrorism by Stuka and harysh-hyd, I would say that the Goebblish approach of the Indian Government and its media has successfully shifted the attention of the world away from the plight of Kashmiris (murder and rape) at the hands of Indians under Indian occupation to a much smaller issue of terrorism, where no evidence has yet been provided by India on it.

This reminds me of a real life unfortunate event on what propaganda can do to people.

When the German 6th Army was getting annihiliated in Russia by the Russians and the harsh winters, back in Germany, Goebbles and his propaganda machine had painted a picture of its total success. So when the German army sought the help of German Luftwaffe and supplies, the same were gathered late. Also when the supplies were dropped (after Luftwaffe suffered severe casualties at the hands of Russian anti-aircraft fire waiting for it) they contained not food, arms, ammunitions and such like, but condoms.

Zafar:

``The scenario you set out means that one of the best ways his rivals and enemies have of getting rid of Musharraf is to organise a terrorist attack on India. And who are these rivals and enemies? The same people who have issued fatwas against Pervy, that is to say, your favourite extremists and mine.``

Agreed. The problem is that Mush and MMA fighting each other is basically two extremists fighting each other. How does it matter to us which extremist ends up ruling Pakistan?

#27 ahmadzai

So let me get this straight: an indian criminal commits violent crimes against indian citizens and takes shelter in Pakistan and is conferred Pakistani citizenship. According to you, he cannot be extradited to India, because there may be some FIR lying in some police station about some crime involving Advani from 50 years ago.

I assume you are not trying to be funny or intentionally obtuse. But thats what the overall effect is.

Either this FIR is very important and your goverment should proceed further with it (Why doesn`t it? Why sit on it for 50 years? Is the FIR getting more and more interesting?). Or you should not waste our time with these silly diversions.

Stuka at # 29:

A crime committed in 1950 or 1850 remains same as that of a crime committed in 1990s. If the person is alive, and can be proved criminal in the court of law, he has to be sentenced.

My question again, would you hand over Advani to us or not if we asked for him given the present situation?

Also, in Kashmir, why is your para-military killing all the ones it accuses of terrorism in encounters? This holds true for those who attacked your parliament. If you see the video footage, you will notice that 5 of them were running here and there without any plan. All of them were shot. Why could not one of them be shot on leg or some thing for hard evidence.

Similarly, recently, those accused of terror attacks and taking refuge in mosque were killed after heavy fire on the mosque. Why could not your para-military wait and let the ``terrorists`` starve themselves out in the open in order to provide yourself a hard evidence?

Finally, even if a negligible number of Islamic idiots are terrorising the poor Kashmiris, why should Kashmir freedom fighters and Pakistan earn the bad reputation?

Isn`t it just because an Indo-Jewish propaganda machine has won the war?

Isn`t it because the tribal Malik has banished the poor tribesman into exile just because his goats were dirty and the Jirga forgot that he had stopped the water for people located downstream?

Isn`t it bacause you people have become innocent Germans at the hands of Goebbles? If Pakistan is involved in cross-border terrorism in Kashmir, do you believe that it is also involved in Nagaland, Tripura, Bodoland, Punjab, Gujrat, and in Dalits taking their petition to Durban conference on discrimination, etc? Are you not falling into the same trap and instead of holding the real culprits accountable, handing them over condoms?

Please ponder for your own good, as Pakistanis are also questioning themselves these days.