Great Empire or Grand Illusion?

political side of the ledger is not looking too good either as norman mailer points out in this critique. and strangely enough he also blames one particular ethnic group:

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/16470

``And there were other factors for using our military skills, minor but significant: these reasons return us to the ongoing malaise of the white American male. He had been taking a daily drubbing over the last thirty years.``

all is not lost however. yesterday, a federal judge ordered the release of four people who were arrested last week for having ties to kashmiri terrorist groups. and this is what makes america great. that it has enough people in position of authority who are willing to act on their conscience even if it means going against popular opinion and against official state sponsored ideology. compare this with what goes on in pak. the most powerful man in pak, i.e. president musharraf does not have the balls to speak against blasphemy law even though he knows that law is morally wrong. and he is not the only one. our idiot judges are busy hauling cricketers into court for appearing in indian commercials rather than righting numerous evil acts committed by state machinery on a daily basis.

coming back to the u.s. i dont think future is rosy by any means given the cowardliness displayed by royal opposition and the media. determining future direction of the country is going to be a good old fashioned gunfight..

The Chowk Staff has implimented a `new and improved` InterAct window that somehow DOES NOT allow messages longer than a certain length. My combined message for all was over the size so it does not show. I`ll try to post it in smaller chunks now...

Nope...still can`t do it...

#25 Maharana [“… (are) the nations in business with US … getting appropriate values for their goods/service? Who decides those values? Is it just the market?

Why … puppet regimes are installed …? Is it not for exploiting their natural resources…? “]

No, there is no such thing as universally acceptable “fair value” when it comes to trade under the International Dollar Standard system.

The global currency exchange rate system is an absolute scam. (I know the bankers in this forum will be after my hide teaching me the basics of finance, but it has to be pointed out.) What it does is to assign different weight to different populations (pools of labor) that live within certain restricted national boundaries that are completely unnatural. The absurdness, artificiality and injustice of this system of global imbalance can be illustrated by taking two twin brothers from a developing country, say, Sri Lanka. Both go to the same university (medical or engineering, or law etc) and both graduate with the same qualification. One of them moves to America the other stays in Columbo. Now, does it sound reasonable that the services of the one are worth five times the other in terms of internal purchasing power?

Capital today moves at the speed of light. At night when you are asleep in the US your money is in Japan, and so on.

Similarly, “goods and services” also move about the world relatively free of barriers and they move at the speed of an airplane or a ship and in some cases even at the speed of light.

The rules change, however, when it comes to the other ingredient of the production process: labor. Labor is very distinctly divided up and kept within separate jurisdictions and it’s movement strictly controlled by laws and police enforcement.

The implications of this stratification are far reaching. This system disproportionately benefits the multi-national mega-corporations. It does not even so much work to the advantage of the average US or European worker except in the short run.

This situation is only made much worse by the monetary system we have in place today where the country that has the universally accepted currency can essentially get a free ride at the expense of the others. This is what I tried to point out in the article: “For three decades now they have been willing to trade their materials, their sweat equity, and their living standards in exchange for paper that America prints at essentially no cost. How long will they keep playing this game is anybody’s guess?”

This is a very pivotal issue that most people don’t ever even think of. This is major corner stone of today’s global economic imbalance.


ALSO #31 Maharana

[ …``As long as America remains true to the American Constitution… Jeffersonian spirit …``

Ah, the famous Jefersonian spirit. So many of us have been taken in by that.

… the meaning of equality, liberty, justice of mankind … applicable only to the WHITE RACE.

But such is the power of propaganda and garbled history by ideologues, that it took me a while to digest the uncomfortable truth.

… sometimes it is good to follow the written word without paying attention to the spirit it was written in. …”]

Don’t be too hard on poor old Massa Tom. He was a product of his time after all. Let me add to your list further. Thomas Jefferson, the author of the Bill of Rights, was also the first one ever, as president, to suspend the habius corpus in the case of his personal political rival whom he had arrested by the army and then charged with high treason. I am, of course, referring to the case of Colonel Aaron Burr, a hero of the Revolutionary War who contested against Jefferson for the presidency and lost by ONE VOTE on the THIRD TALLY (after two ties) in Congress (The Congress then, was the Electoral College). Jefferson was also pompous and arrogant. He owned several slaves and even had at least one daughter from a slave girl. He was the first president to attack a Middle Eastern country when in 1801 he sent the US Navy to go and bomb the hell out of Tripoli harbor, 183 years before Ronal Reagan bombed Qaddaffi, and so on and so forth. But in spite of all that I hold Jefferson in high esteem because of what he has left behind.

In this particular instance I would entirely agree with your concluding statement: “…sometimes it is good to follow the written word without paying attention to the spirit it was written in…”


#27 tahmed [“…real estate is overvalued worldwide, but far more … in UK and Europe than in the …Given the great leverage one gets … I would think real estate should be the place to invest…”]

The best thing one can say about real estate is that even if its price goes to hell, you can at least live in a house, where as with stocks or bonds gone worthless you cannot even wipe your poop off – they are printed on glazed paper. It is sobering to note that real estate price in Tokyo, for instance, have gone down for nine years in a row and are presently about 70% below where they were at the peak of the bubble in 1989-90. So if you bought something for a hundred then, it would fetch thirty on the market today. The poor bastard who borrowed 90 of the original 100 is now holding something that is worth 30 and the remaining balance on his loan is probably still 80. So, there is no such thing as a “risk-free return” never mind what the bankers tell you about US Treasuries.

#28 Romair

(a) Do you think US invasions and targets are specifically based on the use of Euro by the Iraqis and Iranis?

(b) the defining line for an economic superpower is its ability to invade other countries… The moment a country has lost this ability, it has ceased to be an economic superpower…

(c) If the British still controlled India, and their other territories, they would still be an economic superpower to rival the USA.

The British left India when they knew they did not have the power any longer to invade India successfully and quelch forcefully any kind of independence movement. That is when they ceased to be a superpower

(d) The quickest way to make money, increase production etc. is to take it from others thru force. I think the USA still has the power to do that. And it has been doing that, openly, since WWII.

The US needs to do the above to maintain its superpower status. As long as it can successfully do so, it will be able to compensate for any internal economic shortcomings…”]

(a) Saving the dollar based system, in my view, has to be a factor in that whole calculus. It will probably buy an extra decade. But that’s a lot. Hadrian built a wall in northern England to keep the barbarians of Scotland at bay and that extended Roman rule of Brittania for another century. So, it is sometimes useful to take measure that you know will lead to trouble in the long run because short term advantages are immediate and substantial.

(b) I beg to differ. What you are saying is that the basic power to possess is the military power and that yields political power which in turn yield economic power. That is a view held by many, but I so not subscribe to that view. To my way of thinking, economic power is the foundation stone. It’s the back bone. Only an economically powerful entity can project political and military power. Military might, of course, being nothing more than “politics through other means,” as Karl von Clausewitz would say.

(c) Again, I would prefer to re-phrase the statement and instead say: “if the British were still an economic superpower, they would then have the means to still control their colonies.”

There are those who believe as you do. It may be a chicken and egg kind of an issue, but that is not how I see it. By the way, Winston Churchill also believed as you do. He opposed the Atlee government’s move to quit India on exactly these grounds that it will reduce Britain to the status of a second rate power. Frankly, I don’t think he understood economics at all.

(d) The US is able to do what it does not because of the Seventh Fleet, but because of the BLIND FAITH that fools around the world have in the (intrinsically worthless) ALMIGHTY DOLLAR.

…SR

SR: Thanks for the replies, again.

I must admit this has been a most enlightening thread. You have provided a lot of interesting information on how economics relates to international affairs and politics. Would you happen to have the background of doing an analysis of Pakistan`s economy, without any political/democratic biases, its present and future, in comparison to where it was three years ago (not in comparison to the rest of the world). Most analysts I have read, seem to have too much of political baggage to do an objective analysis. The anti-Martial Law brigade never sees anything right. While the pro sees everything right.

On the issue of military or economics deciding superpower status, I think I need to clarify furthur. I agree with you that economics is a primary factor in being a superpower. However, I don`t think it is the only factor. There seems to be a cycle that true superpowers follow:

- They get internally successful and grow strong economically. The standard of living of their population increases, and soon their internal resources become too limited to compensate for the growing standard of living demands of their citizens.

- They realize that they have to gain control of resources outside their borders, at cheap rates, to continue their growth. In the old days the superpowers would just invade other nations, outright, and colonize them directly (or kill them and take their land). However, now in the times of kindler gentler superpowers, they do so through support of autocratic rulers in other countries, who sell their nation`s resources at cheap rates to benefit themselves.

- However, every now and then, even now, the superpowers need to invade to ensure they don`t lose control of the international resources. Or at least they have to be able to threaten and invasion. To do this, they need gigantic militaries (specifically navies and now Air Forces also). This is a huge investment. However, the paybacks are much higher, due to control of resources. So they build giant miltiaries, way beyond what they need to their own defence.

- Their economies are strong enough to support these militaries, and it turns into a cycle, where their citizens` needs keep growing and they have to control more and more resources, and thus their militaries keep getting bigger.

Based on this, regardless of what happens internally (upto a certain limit), as long as they can invade successfully, then can compensate, to a great deal, for the shortcomings you mentioned. The moment they lose the ability to invade, regardless of how strong their economies are (Britain, Germany, France, etc.are good examples), they cease to be superpowers, because then they are forced to follow the normal rules of economics that everyone is living by, i.e. they cannot just forcefully take someone else`s stuff and have to build it themselves and compete.

USSR is an example of a country that tried to become a superpower, without first developing an strong internal economy. It had a huge military, but it was a fake superpower. And thus could not sustain its superpower-ness. The USA is a genuine superpower (economics + military). In fact, even with a large military, the Russian navy was never large and powerful enough to carry out the types of invasions, half way around the world, the USA can carry out. So USSR wasn`t even a true military superpower.

I think once a country has reached the combined economic + military superpower status, it enters into an unstoppable cycle, i.e more military invasions needed to meet internal demands, specially if the internal economic situation is getting weaker. The USA is caught in this circle now. I think it will continue to invade, more and more, and will continue to increase the size of its military. And I think for the near future, it can get away with it due to the terroist propoganda, as long as it doesn`t do it as bluntly as it did in Iraq.

This combined with the reasons you mentioend, is probably why Bush and Co. are out to invade eveyone and their grandmother.

Romair #38 The US also has started cracking down on illegal immigrants and send them packing. They dont even spare ex-pakistan armymen, who are exempt from the indignity of following laws and rules like - imagine! - ordinary people. And you had to learn this the hard way...very bad. very very bad, this lack of respect for army officers.

SR # 37,

My own observation of the in international trading practices and ``free trade`` are in line with what you have written. But without a person with financial background or knowledge substantiating it, I would not have taken them seriously enough. Thanks!

``… sometimes it is good to follow the written word without paying attention to the spirit it was written in.``

Further in the same vein...

``But life shows her irony, through islamists doing the same, with contrary results``.

I`d deliberately refrained from writing this additional statement for fear of dragging this thread to a Hindu-Muslim mudslinging.
But I hope you`ll try to understand this from a different perspective now.

Adios

re: America`s affluence
Sometimes ignorance is bliss. So we hear someone in Chowk say:
``The quickest way to make money, increase production etc. is to take it from others thru force. I think the USA still has the power to do that. And it has been doing that, openly, since WWII.``
Living in USA, i find the above statement very offensive. Let the idiot who wrote the above statement give us proof.
Of course, history has been kind to US. But much of America`s prosperity has to do with unleashing private enterprise. It is just not easy for many governments and people (especially those used to dictators ruling their nations) to imagine that a faceless single individual could be so important in creating wealth. While World War 1 brought sudden increase in productivity, industrial growth etc for the nation, US linked its fate to free market even during the most difficult times as during the Great Depression. It is hard to imagine but true that during that period, some 100,000 Americans for the first (and perhaps the last) time migrated to Soviet Union for work. Soviet Union at the time was being touted as a successful model and the eg was even more glaring during the Depression. But USA did ride out of that bad phase and continued with ``free market``. Advent of motor car (with Ford being a household name) unleashed another era of prosperity coupled with increasing mobility. Of course all was not hunky dory. With increasing mobility came disruption in family life, change in moral values and so on. But we are talking about material wealth here.
While one can keep debating on the nature economic policies that lead to gradual prosperity of USA, one thing cannot be debated: the important role of immigrant population towards economic prosperity. What started as a slave labor for plantation workers in 18th century USA soon gave rise to first wave of immigrants from much of Europe. There were millions of them and yet they did not create any large scale social upheavel. Here again, the concept of free will and freedom of movement of labor helped. People migrated to areas with jobs and created prosperity. In the words of an economist:
``Immigrants supplied the labor that a growing economy urgently demanded. What is more, economic growth allowed the accommodation of newcomers without forcing thorny questions of redistribution -- always the occasion for social contest and upheaval. Here, as so often in American history, especially during the period of heavy immigration before the First World War, economic growth worked as a pre-emptive solution to potential social conflict.``
The INS amendment of 1965 opened the doors to Asian countries. Much of immigration in the last several decades has happened from Asia (Phillipines, China, India etc). But most of the recent immigrants are skilled except perhaps the large wave of semi-skilled and unskilled labor force pouring in from Mexico. All of these have contributed to USA`s economy. America still needs a large number of immigrant population for economic growth.

USA is today not only the sole superpower but also an economic power. http://www.dallasfed.org/htm/pubs/annual/arpt01c.html

``Americans make up just 5 percent of the world’s population, but our $10 trillion economy accounts for a quarter of global output. We own, consume and make more of nearly everything—from cars and houses to movies and sports events. We’re among the world’s leaders in just about every cutting-edge technology. We’re the world’s greatest trading nation—the biggest importer and the top exporter.

U.S. industrial production is six times larger than in 1950. Total output has expanded more than fivefold. So has the capital stock—a measure of the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services``

Some people in this forum have been suggesting that US would somehow start to disintegrate after Iraq war. This is stupid.
``Annual defense spending per capita during World War II was an inflation-adjusted $3,381—or 29 percent of the nation’s total production. Today, each American’s share of the defense budget comes to $1,050, just 3 percent of our total output.``

``Throughout history, world powers have fallen because their economy couldn’t support their military. The latest, of course, was the Soviet Union, whose inefficient socialist economy couldn’t keep pace with the Cold War spending of the United States.``
(same url as above)

So, USA will continue to lead the way. There is much to celebrate about USA. But 2 things that comes instantly to mind are the freedom one enjoys here and the unbridled prosperity that an average American enjoys. If you do not believe me, read Dilip D`Souza`s column on What is good about America and you will understand why this is still the most favorite destination for new immigrants.
Sridhar

Does our Colony Building Imperial President -- besides being a delinquent dyslexic dimwit --suffer from – Adult Attention Deficit Disorder -- also called AADD/ADHD/ADD/ADS --

a condition that is considered to be a major cause of Juvenile Delinquency and Adult’s CHEATIN n LYIN Misbehavior.

According to our inimitable Maureen Down of New York Times he does….

MAUREEN DOWD

````Let`s apply the A.A.D.D. quiz to our fidgety president and his foreign policy team:

1) -- ``I find my mind wandering from tasks that are uninteresting or difficult.``

(Like nation building, which we said we`d never do but are muddling through now, with no coherent strategy, in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Middle East, and soon in Liberia.)

2) -- ``I say things without thinking and later regret having said them.``

(Such as declaring we have ``prevailed`` in Iraq two months before the commander there admits, ``We`re still at war.``

Or bubbling about the statue of Saddam falling and then months later posting a $25 million bounty on the real Saddam`s head.

Or saying Saddam had W.M.D.`s that posed an imminent threat to us and then failing to find a single warhead.

Or saying we`d already found the weapons when all we`d found was some trashed trailer.

Or saying we`d get Osama ``dead or alive`` and Al Qaeda was ``on the run.``)

3) -- ``I make quick decisions without thinking enough about their possible bad results.``

(Such as how our troops will be targets in hostile, dangerous territory, stuck there for years sorting out tribal and sectarian warfare.)

4) -- ``I have a quick temper, a short fuse.``

(Like the president, taunting the Iraqi militants, saying, ``Bring `em on.`` Shouldn`t that sort of trash talking be reserved for football and Schwarzenegger sequels?

5) -- ``I have trouble planning in what order to do a series of tasks or activities.``

(Such as threatening to rumble with North Korea and Iran while we`re still prone to stumble in Afghanistan and Iraq.)

6) -- ``In group activities it is hard for me to wait my turn.``

(Why wait for the pansy allies, even if you`ll need their help after?)

7) -- ``I usually work on more than one project at a time, and fail to finish many of them.``

(Yes. Al Qaeda is recrudescing. In Afghanistan, the Taliban is coming back, warlords rule and the vice and virtue police are at it again.

Iran and North Korea are defying us.

Saddam is still lurking, even as we struggle in Iraq to get the lights on, the oil industry up and the violence down.

We say everything is O.K. while the senators who went to Iraq last week say we`re stretched thin in the face of more and more attacks by Saddam loyalists.

Yep. These guys definitely have E.A.D.D. — Empire Attention Deficit Disorder.
(NYT)

Besides Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria North Korea Cuba -- yesterday it was Turkey`s Turn -- and today we are going to Liberia --

what this Trashy Tongue Twit from Tree Hopping Tarzana Texas is up to -- hopping from tree to tree around the world -- picking street fights with everybody --

who the hell he thinks will pay for all this -- his dad?

Folks this MORON has to go in Nov 2004 -- moral bankruptcy we can live with -- but financial bankruptcy? -- no way --

the stupido has to go –

so folks -- in 2004 PLEASE don’t forget to VOTE -- don`t forget to get this monkey off our back -- AND -- our wallet

sridhar -- this is the greatest country in the world -- ruled by the Biggest Bumbling Buffoon of the United States Presidency -- Born-Again-To-Kill

the worst President in the 200 hundred years old Presidential line of the United States.

elected/selected by the 5 Supreme Court Judges – NOT by the voters

look at this -- in JUST THREE years where we were and where we are now:

from the most respected country in the world -- to the MOST HATED country in the entire world --

from the most prosperous with a half a trillion dollar surplus budget -- to a more than trillion dollars deficit budget in just three years --

from no war with any country THREE years ago -- to war and with threats of war against half of the world --

from no American kids dying in a godforsaken foreign lands ONLY THREE ago -- to scores of our American sons killed and maimed -- every day – almost everywhere.

from the peacemakers of the world three years ago -- to the despicable colonial invaders and occupiers of sovereign foreign lands.

and yes this is the greatest country of the world --

because this LAWLESS president will be made one term migrant, transient worker -- will be PUNISHED for his illegal misdeeds and misbehavior -- of his cheating and LYING --

because WE the US voters will kick this aberration -- this dangerously demented war monger out from his accidental chair -- that he does not deserve to occupy --

we the voters of the United States will give the boot to this son-of-bush -- in Novemmber 2004 -- just the same way WE booted out his hyperthyroid father -- 11 years ago

and why?

because this IS the greatest country of the entire world -- a country that WILL live by the RULE OF LAW internationally -- as it WILL live by the RULE OF LAW -- nationally.

after November 2004 -- our boys ARE coming home -- not killing people in foreign lands -- and not getting killed and maimed by others -- in foreign lands.

George Bush is an Aberration and an Anomaly -- a transient phenomenon -- that WILL disappear as a blip from the rader of the American politics -- in keeping with the ideals aspirations and the history of this great land.

re: SR

Another interesting article on a less known, but important theme in international relations. I really found this to be instructive.

Ciao

re:#43 by nasah
Presidents come and go. This one will go too. Eventually.
But this president`s popularity increased with the perception of threat to national security following 9/11. I do not even remember what his agenda was prior to that. I think he was big on tax cuts but what else? 9/11 changed all that. In one stroke, Bush gained the kind of popularity that one can only dream about.
A superpower, when challenged, reacted in the only way a superpower would react. In the process, some excesses have been committed but they are inevitable. We can go on debating if attacking Iraq was right or wrong. But i am surprised at the reaction of the muslim world. What has saddam Hussein done for them anyway? Did he not attack a muslim country many years ago? Did he not use chemical weapons on his own populaton? If USA perceived him to be a security risk, then it thought it fit to eliminate that risk. Of course, there are deeper plots and the truth will never be known. Iraq`s oil fields have been secured for future. If saudi arabia becomes a great threat, US would do the same to the House of Sauds that it did to Iraq. Attacking Iraq was easy but convincing Americans about the necessity of this attack has not been so easy. Having secured its interests in Iraq, it needs to get the hell out of Iraq and let a coalition of forces do the governing. Ultimately, Iraqi people need to be involved in governance. I do not know when that will happen.

I disagree when you say that America is the most hated country in the world. It is not hated in India. I doubt if Chinese hate America though they may envy the American value system and prosperity. So, already much of the world does not hate america. It is only the rabid mullah types in the Islamic world who hate america. They have always hated America. Now they have more reason to do so (after Iraq invasion).
All this still does not change the fact that USA is still the greatest country in the world. An immigrant like me with a funny sounding name (funny to most Americans i am sure) still can make a decent living because of talent and education AND not because of where i am born or my caste or if i have the right connections. It is this system that is worth preserving and fighting for.
Sridhar

#32 tahmed [“…the american revolution represented the first time that the globally accepted institution of kingship was challenged and overthrown. …”]

There you go again, Ahmed sahib, making sweeping statements that border of hyperbole.

Unquestionably, the American Revolution represents a great triumph of political institution building and a “great step forward” for human society, but please don’t go so far as to claim that it was the first time. A republic as opposed to a monarchy may have been relatively new to the Anglo-Saxon, but others have know republics since time immemorial. It can be argued, with some justification, that the Indian subcontinent has the world’s oldest tradition of democracy and/or republicanism. (Let us not credit the British for giving “democracy” to India.) India had its indigenous democracies even before the ancient Greek republics of the sixth century BC. Early Rome was also a republic and down through the late Middle Ages many societies through Scandinavia, the Lower Countries, and Germanic states had various forms of republics with varying degrees of political power sharing arrangements among several leaders of the community. Likewise there were non-monarchial systems of governance in parts of Asia, Africa and among Native American people.


#33 faisaluno [“…(a) political side of the ledger is not looking too good either

(b)… what makes america great… (is)… that it has enough people in position of authority who are willing to act on their conscience even if it means going against popular opinion and against official state sponsored ideology.

(c)…compare this with what goes on in pak. …”]

(a)…Political system cannot be immune to economic pressures and as the economy goes further out of whack there will be, inevitably, greater political disaffection.

(b)…Yes, this has traditionally been the greatness of America, or indeed of any other society that had such political tolerance. But I wonder if this great quality is not receding to some degree as the American society becomes increasingly paranoid and closed minded.

(c)…Please!! There is NO comparison. America would have to get ten times more fascistic and militant while Pakistan would have to improve ten fold (both unlikely occurrences) before one could even begin to draw any parallels.



#38 Romair [“…Would you happen to have the background of doing an analysis of Pakistan`s economy, without any political/democratic biases, its present and future, in comparison to where it was three years ago..”]

First, please let me make no bones about it. I am not an economist, accountant or financial professional. I am merely a layman albeit a keen observer and a devoted student of the markets and the economy. For full clarification please go to Chowk FOMC column page and click on confession, history, structure, bias and philosophy to read about my lack of formal credentials.

I have very little reliable objective information on Pakistan and what little I do know is anecdotal, and therefore insufficient to draw meaningful conclusions about the current economic situation there compared to three years ago. Furthermore, there are several “confounding factors” that have come into play over the last three years that substantially change the background against which one could judge any improvement or deterioration.

Regardless of who runs that country, over time, the macroeconomic picture is substantially effected by global forces that are at work in the background. It is quite possible that anything going on in Karachi or Islamabad would amount to little more than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Bankers, industrialists, bureaucrats, politicians, merchants, foreign consultants and investors will each have their own perspective on “the economy,” but they are like the six blind men describing an elephant while each fumbles over a different body part –trunk, ears, leg, tusk, body, tail-- of the beast.

To me, however, the important yard-stick for a country like Pakistan is the standard of living and quality of life of the average person. If that, in the aggregate, is not getting better then all the super highways, bridges and buildings or all the balances of payment, IMF loan re-scheduling and central bank reserves or stock market gains or factory outputs or new airport terminals or Aid packages are hollow and meaningless.

There is no question that more people have more available to them than before, but by the same token there are more people in the country now than there were before, so has anything changed? I certainly don’t know. But on my visits there I make an effort to make some observations and meet with as diverse a sample of people as possible.

Having traveled to some off the beaten track places it is my distinct impression that the average poor person’s life is getting harder year after year, and that is a continuous process, irrespective of who masquerades as the nation’s messiah in Islamabad and regardless of what the six blind men tell us about the economy’s health.

Not only that, there is another ugly reality. All else aside, Pakistan has two monumental problems which are potentially catastrophic within the next three decades, and they seem to have no visible solution. If my some magic or miracle all existing ethnic, religious, political, educational and Pak-Bharat dushmani problems were solved today, even then the future is bleak and the outcome catastrophic because of those two primary problems. They are (1) demographics, and (2) fresh water shortage. This is a long subject and one which I cannot go over in this space-time.


#40 Maharana [“… sometimes it is good to follow the written word without paying attention to the spirit it was written in.”

Further in the same vein...

``But life shows her irony, through islamists doing the same, with contrary results``.

I`d deliberately refrained from writing this additional statement for fear of dragging this thread to a Hindu-Muslim mudslinging. …”]

I greately appreciate your wisdom of avoiding the risk of starting a Hindu-Muslim fasaad in this space. I was also going to give an anecdote that may have provoked an angry response from some quarters, so I restrained myself. When I was defending Jefferson despite the fact that he’d been less than a perfect angel in his personal conduct it occurred to me to give the example of a great religious leader whom many of the devoted hold in the utmost high reverence. I consider him a great man and a successful leader. But I do not hold some of his obvious personal weaknesses against him which his harsh critics scream and yell about. And thus they get in mudslinging matches with his faithful followers.


#41 nasah [“… a delinquent dyslexic dimwit …who the hell he thinks will pay for all this -- his dad?

… this MORON has to go in Nov 2004 -- moral bankruptcy we can live with -- but financial bankruptcy?
... get this monkey off our back -- AND -- our wallet …”]

From your mouth to the ears of God. Amen.



#42 rsridhar [“… (a) much of America`s prosperity has to do with unleashing private enterprise…

(b) the important role of immigrant population towards economic prosperity …America still needs a large number of immigrant population for economic growth.

(c) USA is today not only the sole superpower but also an economic power.

(d) U.S. industrial production is six times larger than in 1950…”]

(a)…Agreed with your statement fully.

But the tragedy is that today the burden of government interference and cronyism on the economy has become so great that at this rate a day will come when this will start resembling the Soviet Union more than the glorious America of yore.

(b)…Again agreed, but that too is changing as xenophobia and paranoia is beginning to set in, immigration laws are being tightened and this trend is actually being encouraged by the likes of Herr Johannas Ashcroft, Herr Adolf Juliani and Herr Rumsfeld.

(c)… The future of the US economic power is at a high risk because of the criminal deeds of the political mafia in Washington DC that has spared no effort in manipulating and distorting the world’s most robust and efficient economy for their own narrow and short-sighted interests.

(d)… I hope you don’t believe everything the pimps of The Creature From Jackall Island (the Fed) write and say. If you think Enron & WorldCom pulled wool over America’s eyes, wait till you find out how much lie the Fed and the Treasury & the White House feed the gullible and trusting citizens of the country.

Half truths can be worse than outright lies. This six fold increase in Industrial production since 1950 is just such a half truth which has obviously smart and educated people like you convinced.

What metric is being used here? How does it translate? Are they measuring “production” in terms of widgets or dollars? How about as a percentage of GDP? How about a percentage of worldwide output compared to the 1950s? We all know that today even a poor clerk is richer than a king in the Middle Ages. So absolute numbers cannot be a relevant measure when comparing two points in time centuries or even decades apart. How about production in terms of percentage of total demand for those widgets compared to 1950? Are they using a hedonic factor in their measurement?

Yes, that’s a good one: HEDONIC FACTOR. Let’s talk about this for a minute. This is one of the many, many ways the government lies to the people without anyone realizing it. I’ll explain:

We’ve all heard the Fed chief pimp, Alan Greenslime, extol the virtues of “enhanced productivity” in the US. I’ll tell you how they get those huge productivity gains that absurdly magnify the (much smaller) real productivity gain by creative use of statistical wizardry. I had once thought these things only happened in Pakistan. Mr. Bhutto, for example, increased the country’s literacy rate substantially by the simple trick of redefining the term “literacy.” What genius.

There is a joke about the misuse of statistics. A rich businessman hired a statistician and asked him to calculate his odds of being in a plane with a bomb on board. The statistician calculated the odds but the businessman thought they were too high. So he asked the statistician if there was anything he could do to improve his odds since he was a frequent flyer and wished to reduce risk of being on a plane with a bomb.

The statistician advised him to carry a bomb in his brief case at all times because that way his probability of being in a plane with TWO bombs would be far, far smaller.

Similarly, in the US during the early 1990s the government statisticians were faced with a puzzling question regarding productivity measurement.

Computer power was increasing at an astonishing rate. The politicians wanted to somehow quantify and capture the qualitative improvements in the technological products. So the statisticians came up with a two pronged approach.

First, they increased the weighing of technology products in the GDP calculations so that an enhancement in technology would have a proportionately greater impact on the GDP numbers.

Second, they invented the “hedonic factor.” To explain what the hedonic factor is let me give an illustration.

Suppose we have a worker who is paid $10 per hour. In one hour he produces one microchip. This is a 40 Mega Hertz microchip. Now let us fast forward one year and go back to the same worker. We see that he is now getting paid $12 per hour and he is still making one microchip during that one hour. The difference is that because of improvements in technology this new microchip is a 400 Mega Hertz chip. Now therefore, we do some jantar-mantar-choo-mantar and calculate an algebraic equivalent of his salary so that we account for the technological advance. By equalizing the 40 MH chip with the new 400 MH chip we back calculate that our worker is actually making only $1.20 per hour. Thus compared to $10 an hour last year we’ve seen a huge increase in productivity. Never mind the fact that the actual dollars he is taking home to buy groceries with are $12 per hour. This is the magic of hedonics. I prefer to call it a WHITE LIE.

The government LIES and LIES and LIES. And those who don’t believe it should go out tomorrow and invest all their life’s savings in government bonds.

#44 ferozk

Thank you for breaking your code of silence (has it been two weeks?) and leaving a good word.

...SR