Musharraf : Self Styled Saviour Stuck in a Rut

I do not know how the end game will unfold - removal, exile, sky-explosion, you name it. For military leaders, it is easier to get on the throne but the end is usually an unexpected tragic surprise. Like the previous dictators, he is also under his own spell - indispensable, know-all, need of the hour.

PML (Q), the politicians, are equally to be blamed for keeping him there.

What a waste of years!

Nazar and others..

I fear the Government may fall in a few days, and Musharraf may become even stronger.

-Manto

You are right Khalid. Musharraf will go and someone else will come in and do the same. This pattern has been going on for a long time and it has sickened the people. I do prefer Musharraf over our other so called democratic PM’s that were in power. Look at the present Parliament, what a bunch of losers. They have been in power for nearly a year and what have they done so far? Nothing except acting like kids and fighting over things. The people (awam) elected them so that they could take care of their problems. What do they get in return? Boycotts, narabazi!!. How do politicians sleep at night? Do they not feel obligated to their constitutes?

Let`s look at MQM (A political party based in Karachi) for example. The had a huge voters base in Karachi but their shenanigans and their badmashi has made people either not vote anymore or they have started to support Imran Khan`s political party. (A number of people have told me this). Has this created a panic among the MQM brass? I hope so. (Have they Khalid?) This can only happen in those cities that have a higher literacy rate but then what will happen to those people in the rural areas?

Personally speaking i don`t think Pakistan is read for democracy, then may not be read for another 50 years.

He is a quisling.

He represents all that is vulgar and unislamic but pro-western in Pakistan. He will not be led to the slaughter-house. He will have no choice but to run amok all blind alleys and then take the one leading to the slaughter-house.

Unless Pakistan gets the leadership with the spine of an Iran , Cuba, or North Korea--the anglo-culture in Pakistan which believes in the `pragmatism` of 100 years of jackal-life.

``Enjoyment & material success at any price--honor and dignity, no offers refused``--the rant of the `educated-delites`(sic) or educated-dalits of Pakistan. Never ever use the word elites for them.
Elites & the elevated ones dress & talk in earthy tones.

What is Mushy really trying to accomplish with the referendrum and sham elections ? I see a lot of brazen tactical moves but with no strategic end-game.

Very nice article Khalid!
Musharraf`s name reminds me of the talk going on in international media that after UN approves the US request for an international force, Pakistan will be willing to send its troops to Iraq.
Well, i will be damned if Musharraf takes that step. He will be loathed by me for the rest of his life and after. He is secure for now because of the so called support by US(obeying orders!). No personal grudges.......he may even be better than our politicians....but... Is he willing to let his troops butchered like that? His troops.....our own people? How far can he go to save his position?
Any comments?

The end game will be a counter coup followed by free elections.

Musharraf came to power with the agenda of clean government, accountability, economic recovery, genuine democracy and expulsion of corrupt politicians from politics.

From Oct `99 till May `02, he stuck to this agenda. During this period, the Army brass was also happy with him because they also didn`t want to drag the military into politics without rhyme and reason.

Since May`02 however, Musharraf has taken an almost U-turn from the avowed agenda of Oct`99. Horse-trading, alliances with corrupt politicians, bogus referendums and corruption scandals about some Cabinet ministers have dented the integrity of the new system. Even the King`s Party is not prepared to support Musharraf inside the Parliament.

The other Army generals are beginning to lose faith in Musharraf. They also don`t want a life-long Army Chief to block their promotions.

For this reason, many generals are sending secret messages to the politicians.. asking them not to compromise on the uniform issue. They want Musharraf to remove his uniform and let other generals advance professionally within the Pakistan Army.

Apart from Musharraf and a few Major Generals, the other Army officers are also ready to strike a deal with Shahbaz Sharif and Benazir. They would prefer to pull the strings from behind the scenes (like 1988-99), than tarnish the Army`s image through constant interference in politics.

Hence Musharraf has only one option: strike a deal with the Opposition, take off his uniform and stay on as civilian President for another 5 years. Otherwise, he will end up uniting both the Army and politicians under one umbrella, against himself.

echoooobooom #4

``He is a quisling.``

for whom ??

`` Unless Pakistan gets the leadership with the spine of an Iran , Cuba, or North Korea--the anglo-culture in Pakistan which believes in the `pragmatism` of 100 years of jackal-life. ``

poor comparison !!!

I have no problem paying for your one way ticket to North Korea if you agree to live there.
Iran has oil. Cuba is a basketcase. Plus Iran and Cuba are not locked in a military confrontation with a powerful neighbor.

bbabu:

Iran had oil even before it acquired the spine.
North Korea lives more honourably, albeit with less `benefits`, than South Korea.
Cuba is a beacon of hope for many, despite it being a `basket-case`.

Saudi Arabia and the sattelite arab states all have oil. Iraq has oil. All sycophant asslickers of the west. Even their 10million donations are spurned. Some honour , some dignity.

Even pimps & prostitutes have more sense of honour & dignity--they at least work towards it.

Whenever someone suggests that one should move to the countries one cites, it is a clear giveaway that the argument is lost. Did you ever abandon someone simply because he/she said that someone else is better than you or him/her. Did you ever move into a family who were doing better than yours. Do you go & live in the vacation paradise 365 days or return where you have roots & relations. No need to give sloppy and lame excuses.

Unless the leader in Pakistan looks, walks, and talks like the majority Pakistanis and not like the illiterate & uneducated anglicised, alien-accented nincompoops, there is no hope. The country is in a coma on drip and on life-support. Musharraf is planning an english-style funeral at any cost. People should make sure the right ones are led to the cemeteries.

How about musharaff keeping the uniform as well as the presidency but becoming a completely ceremonial president with not much say in the executive functions. This could be supplemented by setting up a National security council which would internalize the externality being imposed by the army on pakistani politics. As long as the national security council is properly represented and set up...i guess this system would have a very good chance of succeeding. In my view the problem is not about musharraf`s uniform or being the president but the fact how much interference takes place by him and his core commanders in matters of politics and government.

raza

poor guy. islamo-facists think he is in the pocket of secularists (read paki chowk-types). and secularists think he is in the pocket of islamo-facists (read mma types). and i think anyone who causes so much grief to people in either of the two camps along with causing heartburn to ill-bred hindus is not doing too bad of a job. and more importantly, people who matter, i.e. the markets dont seem to have a problem either. and my advice should you hear news of mush`s demise is to short kse. and i, unlike the dude who writes fomc columns for chowk, will stand by my recommendation.

http://www.dawn.com/2003/08/20/ebr10.htm

``_ _ _I fear a big showdown between the government and the opposition as both have taken rigid positions on the LFO and the president`s uniform and could cause ripples in the political atmosphere,`` says a leading broker.

All eyes were, therefore, focused on tomorrow`s National Assembly session and how the opposition behaves will set the future direction of the market, he adds.``

Politics is an interesting game. No winners, but an endless cycle.

Musharraf should have retired after three years. Within those three years, he should have de-feudalised Pakistan, and held open elections, with all individuals with even an iota of corruption on their records, banned from politics. This would have been the best exit strategy, since he was quite popular, till his referendum.

Currently, his situation is like the Americans in Iraq. The second worst thing is for them to stay there. But the worse thing is for them to leave completely, and allow a vaccuum. In Pakistan, the worst thing would be the return of BB and NS and so on, to fill this vaccum. These two will sell off Pakistan again, and we will be back to square one.

Unfortunately, too many Pakistanis are obsessed with secularism and religionism, and are dividing Pakistan along these lines, with PPP on one side and MMA on the other. When their main criteria should be corruption and good governance, under which both the PPP and MMA fail. Niether is concerned about Musharraf`s uniform, in principle. The secularatics have no issue with Martial Law, as long as it is based on Ata-Turk. While the religionatics have no issue with it, as long as it is based on Mullah Omar.

At the moment, the best thing for this govt. would be an alliance of the current govt. with the PPP. Since, the honest parties, like PTI, cannot get votes, and have no seats. The religionist would hate such a union. The PPP and the govt. are ready and willing. However, BB will not allow it, until all the corruption cases are dropped against her (which should never be done). After that, she will agree to anything, including a President in uniform. Amin Fahim could have been the Prime Minister of Pakistan, had BB not wanted to hang onto the PPP leadership at all costs.

The other option is to unite with the MMA. The secularatics will hate this union. This is not occuring because Musharraf is unwilling to take-off his uniform.

The third is, of course, to dissolve the assemblies. Which will not be a good choice.

Interestingly, in all of this, MMA is the only party that is pushing the Constitution. This is why they are going the strongest.

I think in the end, there will be some deal with the MMA, and they will jointly form the govt. with PML(Q). The only reason they are pushing the Constitution, is because they want to get the best possible deal. They had no problem in supporting Zia in power.

Interstingly, the current head of PML(N), Javed Hashmi, was a minister in the Zia cabinet. Some of the leaders of MMA were ministers in Zia`s cabinet. Nawaz Sharif was a Chief Minister in Zia`s govt. Benazir`s father was a minister in Ayub Khan`s cabinet. And Altaf Hussain was a product of Zia`s govt. All these guys have no problem with the military, when it suits them and their causes. This is why they have no credibility. Unfortunately, credible politicians like Imran Khan, who refused a cabinet position in Zia`s govt. refused a major alliance with PML(N) when it won, and refused an offer of PMship by Musharraf, cannot get elected. At least not yet.

Anyways, I have made more money in the Pakistani stock market than in the US stock market, in the past two years. Much more money. And as long as the economic indicators are pointing upwards in Pakistan, which they are, then any govt. is fine.

HE:

You have pointed out the most likely scenario.

stuka:

largest state in the indian union is about to fall into the hands of socialists. what do you have to say about that?

echoooobooom #10

`` Iran had oil even before it acquired the spine. ``

The oil has allowed Iranians to live decently even though the govt ruined the country.

`` North Korea lives more honourably, albeit with less `benefits`, than South Korea. ``

If North Korea is your version of honour may god save you.

`` Cuba is a beacon of hope for many, despite it being a `basket-case`.``

Cuba may be standing up to USA. But it is no example for anyone to follow.