The obstacle in social mobility in Pakistan

Zakk #various: I would tend to agree with your views. As for rigging, I really don’t know which ones are rigged and which ones aren’t. From what I have read, the IJI ones were rigged.

A part I disagree with is about any party in Pakistan having universal appeal. I don’t think any such party exists. A united PML is the closest thing to such a party. If it is not united then PPP and PML(Q) are the the closest thing. However, no party in Pakistan has ever had appeal across every province. Even in 70, Bhutto did not win in East Pakistan at all, and have little popularity in NWFP and Baluchistan.

Also, one needs to keep the fact in mind that 60-70% of the seats go to feudals. Hence any party that dominates that vote, cannot necessarily be considered universal. They just own the most amount of land. To see true popularity, one has to go to the urban vote. Feudals can switch parties, and still win easily. They are in fact, bigger than the vision of their party.

Currently, Pakistani politics is divided as follows, assuming all parties are united, with their core vote:

PPP (rural Sind, part of Punjab)
MQM (urban Sind)
Baluchi natinoal parties (Baluchistan – which is all rural/tribal)
MMA (rural and urban NWFP, Baluchistan)
PML(united) (rural and urban Punjab, non-Pushtu part of NWFP)

Any party that dominates Punjab will dominate Pakistan, since the population of Punjab is greater than the combined population of the remaining provinces. And Punjab is now completely a united PML province. Had the PML not been split, PPP would not have even gotten the 34 seats it got.

PPP should be the leader of opposition party. However, it has lost the initiative to MMA, because it is remote-controlled by Benazir. She is sacrificing her party’s interests to hide her own corruption. Due to this, PPP has moved towards the MMA agenda, rather than getting the MMA agenda to move towards the PPP agenda.

In fact, PPP could have been in power. I believe Amin Fahim was offered the PM position in a coalition with PML(Q). Once again, that did not suit Benazir. It is not in the interest of Benazir to have a strong PPP leader emerge in her absence. That leader could then take over the party. This is why PPP never holds internal elections, and Benazir is its lifetime President. PPP is thus an autocratic family dictatorship, i.e. Benazir and her feudal wazirs.

This is why PPP will never be able to realize its vision. Even though, it has a good vision. Its vision goes against the personal interests of its leadership. MMA has a completely screwed up vision, but it has been able to recognize it. Because, its leaders have implemented their vision, and their parties are generally internally democratic.

The best thing that could happen to PPP (and to Pakistan) is for it to be free of the clutches of the Bhutto family and the feudal upperclass. It needs a middle class urban leadership. Even an upper class urban leadership will be fine. This is why, PPP cannot get the taxiwallah on the streets against the Army govt. Because the taxiwallahs have more in common with the middle class Army (their sons maybe in it), than they have with the super-upper class feudal leadership of PPP. This is also why the MMA (and MQM) can get people on the street, against the military govt., whenever they want to. Because its leaders belong to the same social group as its followers, i.e. lower class to middle class.

An urban led PPP, with its vision, is the best thing that could happen to Pakistan. A feudal led elitist PPP is going to take Pakistan down the drain.

re: YLH

Since you are thinking about joining a political party, PPP, as you seek a platform to usher Pakistan towards democracy.

I know your committments towards democracy and I do not doubt your idealism. I have a few simple questions, if you care to answer them. A lack of answer would be just as welcomed.

Do you agree or not, that before joining a party, it would be nice to see if that party represents the views one holds and if one, as yourself, is keenly devoted to the cause of democracy, how do you reconcile the fact that PPP has a chairperson for life; its leaders are appointed and not elected, like any other party in Pakistan? Will you sacrifice your idealism on the alter of party interests? When you join a party, will consider that ends justify the means or that the means justify the ends? In the end, and please think of it; are you prepared to pay the ferryman?

You are welcome to join the PPP or any other alphabetic combination, and I hope you discover, what you are searching. I hope that you have reasoned your choice and not rationalized your choice on the basis for what happened vis-a-vis the arrest of Javed Hashmi.

YLH, I hope you will over look this slight if I offer you some words. Politics is like the picture of Dorian Grey and when you join a cause, please decide wisely. Decide whether the choice is worth the internal decay that must be forebeared in order to maintain the outward apprearances. Some times the price is too costly and if you make this Faustian bargin, you will have to pay the price. Again, ask yourself if you are prepared to pay the ferryman and remember that old line in the Bible: what does it profit a man to gain the whole world but lose his soul in the process? You will have to answer this question my friend

Ciao

Mantolive said:The seats as you might recall are divided in such a way that every Pakistani has equal representation and that is why NWFP has so few seats compared to say Punjab in the NA... Zakk`s claim that they are smaller is almost as big a lie as his/her other lie about the Afghan refugees

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Not exactly true, Karachi represents 10% of the population but I believe has fewer seats, Pakistans seats are not evenly distributed on the basis of population, if that was true why does Maulana Fazlur Rehman (aka Diesal) poll over 100,000 from his ancestral seat in DI Khan and the winner in my home town poll 15,000 seats? (with the approx same turnout?)

My ``lie`` as you so colourfully say about the afghan refugees is again interesting, have you been to Peshawar? I used to live there and still have relatives there, in some sub urban areas you would be lucky to hear anything other than Dari. I don`t deny the afghan refugee vote, but let`s not blow it out of proportion.

Also the MMA has achieved National Status, it won seats in every province, noticeably it has done well in places like Islamabad and Rawalpindi as well. While the PML(N) has ceased to exist as a National party and is essentially an ethnic Punjabi party now (with a smattering of Pashtuns and Baluchis)

None of this detracts from the fact that the PPP is essentially the only opposition Party that has true broad based appeal, and by right should be the offical opposition...but when discussing impartially facts one mustn`t rule out the unique success of the MMA.

Lastly, Omair: Pervaiz Musharraf himself stated on National television that the 1990 and 1997 elections were rigged. Sadly whenever the Pakistan establishment rigs elections they overdo it..the result was the IJI and the heavy mandate.

Lest anyone forget...

IRREGULARITIES IN THE 2002 ELECTIONS
(From South Asian Voice)

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excerpt

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Whereas domestic observers pointed to numerous irregularities in the electoral process, the US was quick to give the elections a clean chit. Writing for the Dawn newspaper, Masood Haider (Oct 12) reported: ``The United States said on Friday it accepted the election results in Pakistan as being a credible representation of the full range of opinion in the country``. That voter turnout was estimated to be as low as 12 to 15 per cent by Pakistan`s Tehrik-i-Insaaf (or around 20% by the PML-N) obviously did not appear to concern US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher. Neither did it seem to worry him how a wide range of election participants and observers had criticized the conduct of the polls and the entire electoral process.

For instance, a Dawn story (Oct 12) spoke of how the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) ``regretted that not content with its pre-poll manipulation of the electoral process, the administration seemed to have continued to tamper with it during the polling and afterwards``.

The HRCP had fielded over 1,300 field observers, who attempted to monitor the polling in 116 National Assembly constituencies, and closely watched the proceedings at over 500 polling stations. In their reports, they noted that grave irregularities had marred the elections.

For instance, in some districts, (such as in Sanghar) police officers seized polling stations, threw out candidates` polling agents and stamped the ballots themselves. Complaints made to the Election Commission were ignored. At several polling stations in Sindh and Punjab supporters of the military-backed candidates took control of proceedings, threatened the HRCP`s observers with violence and prevented their entry into polling booths, as they tampered with the ballots. Ballots were stolen, fake ID cards were in circulation, and many postal ballots were found in unauthorized hands

At some polling stations in Punjab, indelible ink was missing, allowing some voters to cast more than one vote. At other locations, polling stations were changed at the last minute, or valid electoral lists were missing thus preventing legitimate voters from casting their votes. Many voters complained that their names had been omitted from the electoral lists even though they had voted in the previous elections and had not changed residence. Others complained that when they arrived at polling stations they were told that their votes had already been cast. In Kasur district no responsible authority knew where a particular polling station was.

The HRCP also noted that in Sindh, non-Muslim voters were forcibly prevented from casting votes. At some polling stations in Punjab non-Muslim voters` names were missing from the lists. Ahmadis boycotted the polls because they had been unjustifiably put on a separate list. In the north-western tribal areas poll-watchers said not a single woman had cast ballots as of mid-morning, after vows from tribesmen and Islamic party candidates to prevent women from voting.

Manto,

You are considering joining PPP? Congratulations. It has easily the best people in all of Pakistani politics and military. It`s not perfect, and the militarists will deliberately paint Benazir into a she-devil, but PPP is better than anything else on the horizon, even better than most of what we have in India.

Man, you are really maturing. And it is heartening to see you take on these old forces arrayed bitterly against you. Keep it up and tell your wife-to-be that at least one Indian is very happy for her.

if this were a hockey game everyone would be beating up on romair, including his own team mates !............. the man is relentless!.............. imagine sitting in canada (via amreeka) and lecturing our man ylh, who is right in the middle of things in lahore, on pakistani politics............. how know-it-all fauji!............

ylh zindabad!
romair murdabad!

chowk staff - please ban romair for a few weeks ............please

re Romair 149
``As for elections being rigged. I really don`t know which ones are and which ones aren`t.``

That`s easy. A rigged election is in which PPP comes out successful, otherwise they are very fair, balanced, well done etc etc :) And all that rumor about ISI`s money bags buying seats for IJI, ah pure dirty inventions by the Zionist-RAW lobby. Simple military logic.

Romair is busy analyzing through his arse as usual.

His hatred and bias against the PPP is so clearly showing... for example he doesn`t know that some of these `PML QA` winners were either in the PPP or other parties previously. Case in point Ishaq Khan Khakwani from Vehari...

PML QA is a winners club with the Biradari vote. It is not indicative of the `United PML`s` vote bank. Also I believe it to be an insult to Pakistan and Our History to call these factions `Muslim League`. Most of these `Leaguers` have historically been anti- League. Name one family in PML QA which has historically been in the original AIML? PML N has a few but not PML QA... whereas PPP had many of its stalwarts who had earlier formed the Rank and file of those following Jinnah... i.e. Meraj Khalid, Rao Rasheed, Mian Sali`s family etc

PPP`s vote bank is from the masses... the so called `PML`s` vote bank is from the `biradari`.


-YLH

PM, Zakkk,

1 Million votes are not popularity... It simply means that other voters have not been mobilized. 1 million votes for 68 seats which are supposed to represent close to 35 million people of Pakistan? The seats as you might recall are divided in such a way that every Pakistani has equal representation and that is why NWFP has so few seats compared to say Punjab in the NA... Zakk`s claim that they are smaller is almost as big a lie as his/her other lie about the Afghan refugees.

As for Afghan refugees... the `farsi` speaking refugees are a few and far between and they stick out ... so please don`t put up such blatant lies... Afghan refugees are those who are ethnically and linguistically the same as NWFP`s pushtoons and thus have gone around pretending to be Pakistani.

-YLH

PM #147/148: Typo on my part (as well as yours). The elections were in Feb 97. They were not in 95.

As for elections being rigged. I really don`t know which ones are and which ones aren`t. Just what one reads in the newspapers. I think the 97 elections, had international observors, and were considered generally alright - or as good as any other one.

re. Romair ``By the 95 elections, it had lost everything in Punjab, and had become basically in a rural Sind party, with a few odd seats in other provinces and one odd seat (Lyari?) in urban Sind.``

You do realize you`re referring here to the most rigged elections ever in Pakistan, right?

correction: It was the `93 elections that are widely helf to have been massively rigged in PML (then IJI`s) favour.

Chowkstaff: Please do not publish my last post.

The party that actually lost the most, due to the govt.’s interference in the last election was the PML. Not the PPP. In fact, one can make a good argument that the PPP actually gained from the govt. intervention, in certain areas, at the expense of PML.

In the election before this one, the united PML had a, “ahvey mundit” (heavy mandate). The biggest feature of this mundit was that it completely swept the PPP out of Punjab. And that it won seats everywhere, Punjab, rural Sind, urban Sind, NWFP, Baluchistan (not sure).

Contrary to popular belief, PPP, in its starting days was actually more popular in Punjab than in Sind. In the 70 election there was only province that the PPP had an outright majority. And that was Punjab. It had no votes in East Pakistan. It had a few in NWFP. And it had the most of any party in Sind, but not an outright majority.

By the 95 elections, it had lost everything in Punjab, and had become basically in a rural Sind party, with a few odd seats in other provinces and one odd seat (Lyari?) in urban Sind.

In the last election, it made a comeback in Punjab, and a bit in Karachi. Of the total 147 seats in Punjab, PML(Q) won 63, PML(N) won 12, PML(J) won 3, PML(Z) won 1, and PPP won 34.

Prior to this, PPP had won this many seats in 93, when it won 32 seats from Punjab. So PPP made a big comeback this time, and the PML lost ground. However, this is because the PML was split into two major factions. One faction got around 27% of the total vote, and the other got 10% of the total vote. So their combined vote was much greater than the PPP’s. However, specifically in Punjab, these factions of PML were competing against each other, and hence the vote was divided. This allowed some PPP candidates to win.

If one combines the votes of the PML candidates, it is obvious that as a combined party, they would have defeated PPP in Punjab again. In that sense the united PML really lost out in the last election. This is evident from the seats, as well. PPP gained seats and PML lost seats.

Interestingly in 93, of the 32 seats, PPP won only 1 seat in urban Punjab. And this time around, of the 34 seats in Punjab, the PPP won only 3 seat from Lahore and that too because it ran with the combined support of PML(N) on two of those seats. And 3 from Rawalpindi.

All of this information is available at, http://www.newsline.com.pk/NewsNov2002/cover7nov2002.htm

Hopefully, this should be enough to convince everyone that the PPP in bad days is rural Sind feudal party. And in good days, is a rural Sind feudal, plus a Southern Punjab feudal party. It didn’t start out this way, but that is where it has ended up now. In urban Pakistan, it can barely win. At best, it can win a couple of seats in urban Sind. And a few of the seats in Urban Punjab (that two if the PML vote is split).

Perhaps, this is because the supporters of PPP do not spend too much time introspecting on why PPP has lost ground in urban areas, where it used to be so popular. Perhaps they should understand that 29% vote is actually mostly a vote from the feudal areas, where the voters have very little choice.

Fuzair:

``I didn`t think you had that many, certainly not in the senior ranks, as you yourself indicated.``


Well, I do not have numbers. Numerically they may be more than PA because of the size of the organization but as a percentage I do not know.


``I think the Pakistan Army probably has more lenient age relaxation than does the Indian one. We get a lot of our officers from the enlisted ranks of the PAF, which has a much higher technical competence requirement than does the Army. ``

Hmm, interesting. The retirement age up to Lt Col was 52, Colonel and Brigadier was 55, Major General was 56, Lt Gen was 58 and General was 60 or three years in post whateverr came first. The BJP gov`t increased the retirement age by 2 years. What are the ages in the PA? Are age barriers relaxed in general or specific to individual officers?

Actually 68 seats does make sense, seats are smaller in NWFP and Baluchistan and voter tunrout is lower, in the First Past the post system, results like the MMA are not totally surprising consider the PPP won West Pakistan with only 39% of the vote. I don`t deny certain elements in the government did promote the MMA but the electoral wave was not something anyone predicted.

I am not to sure about the Afghani refugee population you mentioned as well. A significant number of the Afghani population in Pakistan that have NID cards are at least in Peshawar area, Farsi speaking and not exactly pro MMA.

Manto,

I wish you`d cool it a bit. Stating the fact that the MMA has gained in popularity-- even accounting for factors of rigging-- is not the same as advocating the MMA. The fact is that the bigger parties, even the `national` ones, have failed in the eyes of many a common man, and that opens the door to more religiously slanted ones.

Your time would better spent asking inquiring what needs to be done to correct this perception of the PPP as an opportunist, feudalistic, dynastic, outfit and make it a truly democratic--in every sense!-- one.

Good luck. And I`m with you on this one, btw. I have a couple of future PPP MNAs/MPAs in my pocket and intend to use the influence to it`s maximum good.