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India and Pakistan: The Stark Reality

Godot October 14, 2003

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#315 Posted by hari on October 19, 2003 8:30:32 pm
India`s present economy:

A robust article in NYT today, 10/20/03. I did not know China has a trade deficit with India to the tune of $500 Million.

*****************************************************
October 20, 2003
Sizzling Economy Revitalizes India
By AMY WALDMAN


URGAON, India ? Tarun Narula, a 25-year-old computer instructor, celebrated Mohandas K. Gandhi`s birthday on Oct. 2 by going to the Metropolitan Mall. So did so many thousands of others that the parking lot was full, as were those of the other two malls across and down the street. Indian-made sport utility vehicles, cars and motorcycles fought for space, choking the roads of this satellite city south of Delhi.

Inside the malls, young people sipped coffee at Barista Coffee, the Starbucks of India. They wandered through Indian department stores, Marks and Spencer, Lacoste and Reebok. Families took children to McDonald`s, or the Subway sandwich shop. Moviegoers chose between ``Boom,`` a Bollywood film with a decidedly Western touch of vulgarity, and ``2 Fast 2 Furious.``

This is no longer the India of Gandhi, among history`s most famous ascetics.

The change in values, habits and options in India ? not just from his day, but from a mere decade ago ? is undeniable, and so is the sense of optimism about India`s economic prospects.

Much of India is still mired in poverty, but just over a decade after the Indian economy began shaking off its statist shackles and opening to the outside world, it is booming. The surge is based on strong industry and agriculture, rising Indian and foreign investment and American-style consumer spending by a growing middle class, including the people under age 25 who now make up half the country`s population.

After growing just 4.3 percent last year, India`s economy, the second fastest growing in the world, after China, is widely expected to grow close to 7 percent this year.

The growth of the past decade has put more money in the pockets of an expanding middle class, 250 million to 300 million strong, and more choices in front of them. Their appetites are helping to fuel demand-led growth for the first time in decades.

India is now the world`s fastest growing telecom market, with more than one million new mobile phone subscriptions sold each month. Indians are buying about 10,000 motorcycles a day. Banks are now making $15 billion a year in home loans, with the lowest interest rates in decades helping to spur the spending, building and borrowing. Credit and debit cards are slowly gaining.

The potential for even more market growth is enormous, a fact recognized by multinationals and Indian companies alike. In 2001, according to census figures, only 31.6 percent of India`s 192 million households had a television, and only 2.5 percent a car, jeep or van.

Foreign institutional investors have poured nearly $5 billion into the Indian market this year, already more than six times last year`s total. The Bombay Stock Exchange`s benchmark Sensitive Index has risen by more than 50 percent since April, hitting a three-year high. Foreign exchange reserves are at a record $90 billion.

After huffing and puffing in place for eight or nine years, ``the train has left the station,`` C. K. Prahalad, a professor at the University of Michigan Business School, said of the Indian economy.

More than a decade after India began opening its economy by reducing protectionism and red tape, slowly lifting restrictions on foreign investment and reforming its financial sector, the changes are starting to show substantial results.

Companies that stumbled in the face of recession and new competitive pressures in the 1990`s have increased productivity and are showing record profits. India is slowly making a name not just for software exports and service outsourcing, but also as an exporter of autos, auto parts and motorcycles.

Nature has played a part as well. The seasonal monsoon that ended recently was the best this agriculture-dependent economy has seen in at least five years, with normal or excess rainfall in 33 of 36 of the country`s sub-regions. That, in turn, is putting income and credit in rural pockets, spurring a run on consumer goods that will only strengthen when the harvest comes in later this year.

In some places, the economic transformation is startling. Look at islands of prosperity like Gurgaon, or Bangalore, and you see an India that many Americans ? not to speak of Indians ? would not recognize.

It is a place where a young fashion designer like Swati Bhargava, 27, who works for a company that exports clothes to American and French chains, can buy stylish Indian clothes, eat at Pizza Hut, drink at Barista and contemplate the country mutating around her.

``The culture is changing,`` she said. ``People are becoming more broad-minded.``

One sign of change is the proliferation of malls. India`s first opened only in 1999, and its second in 2000, according to Harminder Sahni, a principal in KSA Technopak, a management consulting firm in New Delhi. By the end of next year, it will have almost 150.

Of course, truisms about what holds India back have not disappeared. The shortfalls in infrastructure, particularly power and education, are staggering. Twenty-six percent of Indians still live in poverty, and data suggest inequality is widening even as the poverty rate falls. Overall employment is essentially stagnating.

The heavy dependence on agriculture, which still accounts for 25 percent of gross domestic product and 70 percent of employment, means that a bad monsoon, like the one last year, can hobble the economy.

The country remains politically dependent on subsidies that have helped swell fiscal deficits that limit growth and investment in education and health. A recent Supreme Court ruling suspending the sale of shares in significant state-owned industries prompted concerns about the slowing of economic reforms, as do continuing red tape and corruption.

Moreover, not everyone embraces change. Many bemoan the aping of Western culture at the expense of a much older and richer Indian one.

Still, an acceleration of the transformation seems inevitable, in part because the booming consumer culture is being driven by the young. The youth of India`s population is a demographic trend of such economic and cultural significance that even the country`s aging leadership recognizes its importance.

Yogesh Samat, the chief executive of Barista, which was founded four years ago and now has 125 coffee bars across the country, said that before economic liberalization began in 1991, ``there was a great deal of guilt associated with spending of any kind; saving was the done thing.`` But today`s youth ? those born in the 1980`s ? never experienced either the shortages or the psychological constraints of the country`s socialist, Soviet-oriented past, he said.

``Consumerism as a term is no longer seen as a bad word,`` Mr. Samat observed, ``and the acquisition of material things is no longer seen as going against Indian traits.``

The young people at the Gurgaon malls would agree. Most of those interviewed here work, a change itself from the past, when jobs for college-age students were few.

Most of them have jobs in service industries, like hotels or marketing, that now constitute about half the economy. They tend to live at home with their parents, following Indian tradition, meaning that almost all of their income is disposable.

Mr. Narula, the computer instructor, for example, earns $2,173 a year, more than four times India`s per capita income of about $480. He lives at home, and has spent his money on a Nokia phone, a Maruti car and clothes. On Gandhi`s birthday, he spent about five hours with his friends at the mall, eating at McDonald`s and watching ``Boom.``

The lifestyle changes for this cohort have come at warp speed. Mr. Sahni of KSA Technopak is only 35, but marvels at the variety open to young Indians today. ``When I was a young person, nothing was happening ? every day, life was the same,`` he said.

No longer. A year ago, India was in a national funk over China having surged ahead economically. Now, there is a cautious sense that over time, India could prove the turtle to China`s hare, thanks to its entrepreneurial spirit, its strong higher education system and its democracy.

``There`s a lot of confidence in India today, even in respect to China,`` said Jairam Ramesh, the senior economic adviser to the opposition Congress Party.

India now has a $500 million trade surplus with China, and Indian companies increasingly see China less as a threat than an opportunity. A delegation of Indian industrialists is now in China to market everything from steel to pharmaceuticals.

Indian companies say the advantages of the country`s high-skilled, low-cost work force are outweighing the disadvantages imposed by its infrastructure and bureaucracy, and even there they see improvement.

Ratul Puri, the executive director of Moser Baer India, which has become the world`s third largest producer of recordable media like DVD`s and CD`s, said his company had recently built the world`s largest production site for such devices ? 1.5 million square feet ? in Noida, another Delhi satellite city, in just six and a half months.

``Pre-1991, it would have been impossible,`` Mr. Puri said. ``We would have spent six and a half months trying to get the license for construction.``

Copyright 2003 The New York Times Company | Home | Privacy Policy | Search | Corrections | Help | Back to Top
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#314 Posted by veeresh on October 19, 2003 8:00:54 pm
Stark real truthful reality is this: Pakistan needs SOUTH Indians to help it function better. Consider, of the countries in the neighbourhood, including the much admired Arab and Persian Gulf enclaves, the ASEAN and Pacific Rim countries, Australasia, everybody`s favourite Singapore . . . these are countries which have large South Indian contributions to simple issues like accounting, teaching, office admin work, healthcare, infotech etcetc.

Then you have countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma, Kampuchea . . . these are countries where you do not have too many South Indians.

See?

I think one solution would be for EVERY Pakistani with martial tendencies to join the Pakistani Army. This Army could then keep the economy ticking over by going to Iraq, Ireland, NATO, Korea, Ethiopia, and doing all the fighting for the Americans. Interim, Pakistan would import South Indians to keep the books and cook the food (not the other way around, sorry) in Pakistan.

(For those worried about idli-dosa-sambar, your attention is drawn to Poonuswamy`s Velu Military Hotuls in Madras area, saar. Especially the venison.)


Thank you. (Takes a bow)
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#313 Posted by arjun_m on October 19, 2003 4:40:56 pm
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#312 Posted by arjun_m on October 19, 2003 4:40:56 pm
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#311 Posted by anil on October 19, 2003 4:40:56 pm
Dear Dost-Mitter (#284)

Such projects need support of like minded people, one person alone cannot do it. Especially something which would need several ``champions`` on the both side of the border and in all organizations - Army, and Ministeries, Central and State to obtain their approvals. Then we would need historians to make archives of stories and memorabilia, documentaries, interviews......

Please contact me at: anilkapuria@yahoo.com

Thank you.
ANIL KAPURIA
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#310 Posted by arjun_m on October 19, 2003 4:40:56 pm
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#309 Posted by arjun_m on October 19, 2003 4:40:56 pm
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#308 Posted by stuka on October 19, 2003 1:08:55 pm
Manto:

``Was he critical of partition? I don`t know... he did write `Toba Tek Singh`... but he also wrote `Mera Sahib` which is one of the best tributes to the life of Mohammed Ali Jinnah in the Urdu language. ``

LOL!! You of all people should know that one can admire Jinnah without subscribing to Parition. Count Gokhale as a famous Indian, me as an example of common man type..

Not that I am saying that Manto was against partition. I don`t know...one can safely assume though that Manto was not happy with the way Partition actually turned out in implementation..ie. the massacres etc.
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#307 Posted by stuka on October 19, 2003 1:05:15 pm
Farzana:

``No one seems remotely interested that I agreed with ahmedmadani that India has no designs over Pakistan.``

Well, India is a status quo power. Pakistan is not. Therefore, it is common knowledge, at least to Indians, that we have no designs on Pakistan. But that is not enough because the Pakistanis percieve that the existence of Kashmir in India itself constitutes a design against them. (I mean the Pakistani official narrative here)
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#306 Posted by concerned1 on October 19, 2003 12:55:53 pm
farzana,

[...it is revealing that I have to take a stand against a `Muslim` issue to prove that I am Indian...]

did i ask for proof of being indian? as a journalist, however, it is expected that you would not take a stand against ONLY `non-muslim` issues when exposing `blackmail of democracy` or indeed any other political issue. you are of course free to do so.

do share with us when you find something relevant to this in your files.
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#305 Posted by stuka on October 19, 2003 12:49:15 pm
Farzana:

``So, where is the quarrel? I am the common Indian after all... ``

I think where we differ is ``a`` versus ``the`` common Indian.

``Whose opinion have I held in contempt? That of a party that butchers its citizens?``

Sure. And that is fine. The rest of your post...well, like I said we both have our individual opinions and that is fine.

As I mentioned, i only took exception where I percieved that you were giving more validity to your opinions over others. Maybe I misunderstood what you were saying, but that specifically was what I was pointing out.

Also, yes, Mumbai may be closer to Mahattan but RSaxena who is an Indian citizen has the same rights as you. ...I assume you were talking about him since he lives there..I live in DC ;0)

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#304 Posted by FarzanaVersey on October 19, 2003 11:53:46 am
stuka (#291):
I have already stated that one person`s opinion need not be the opinion of all, but it can be of some or even many...likewise, what politicians deem fit need not be the opinion of the common Indian. I said I was that common Indian because you said I was not a part of the mainstream...having heard it several times in another context, i am a bit tired of every second person deciding what is the mainstream. And yet you say, ``You are an informed and an educated cityizen and hence an asset. Constitutionally though, your vote is only as an uneducated daily wage laborer. There is, and can be no difference.`` So, where is the quarrel? I am the common Indian after all...

[Onion prices affect the common Indian on a day to day basis. Kargil did not. And yet the people, overwhelmingly, chose to grant political power on the basis of an event that had no affect on daily lives.]

No political party tried to sell itself on the basis of better living conditions. Mrs. IG`s ``Garibi hatao`` slogan was seen as garibon ko hatao...therefore, a party coming to power has little to do with what the people believe in. Rajiv Gandhi won because of the sympathy wave. Besides, it is easier to whip up emotions against an enemy or a negative aspect of history than to do so for the reality around us. Politics works on the principle of escapist cinema. You can get people from all over the country to wear saffron bandanas and go to Ayodhya for a mandir they might never visit if it is built...but will they do so if there is an epidemic there? Or for droughts?

[``As for the people not demanding that we give away Kashmir, I think is a part of a huff-puff patriotism, not genuine nationalistic pride. We will nto even agree to give up Dharavi, the largest slum in Asia...does that mean anything? ``

All this is your personal opinion and you are entitled to it. What you are not entitled to do is make it representative of all Indians. That`s all. At this point, the majority of Indians do believe it a matter of national pride to mantain the integrity of their country. In holding that opinion, they are backed by the Constitution of India. You have the freedom to hold that opinion in contempt, but you cannot disregard it.]

Whose opinion have I held in contempt? That of a party that butchers its citizens? Have I stated that Kashmir has to be handed over to Pakistan anywhere??? Most Indians do not get the benefits of the Constitution of India. You have contemporary history to corroborate that. Are these people interested in the integrity of India? And is the integrity of India only about Kashmir? Should the common people you seem to know so well not be concerned about other dissenting movements that could prove to be dangerous to our integrity?

Anyhow, Mumbai is closer to India than Manhatten is...

nb (#288):
In the Hindi heartland people want Kashmir? I wonder then why with such a large population, and its roughnecks, they cannot infiltrate the Valley in large numbers.

#292:
[...please, someone clamoring for any pakistani on chowk to sponsor her resident visa to pakistan shouldn`t be concerned about `indian-ness`...]

I want evidence before such rash statements are made. Sick...

concerned1 (#297):
[still no references to where you may have exposed the `blackmail of democracy` in the shahbano case, i see...]

I do not have any url...only some of my articles are archived. When I find something from my yellowing files, I shall share it with you or anyone else who is interested.

BUT...it is revealing that I have to take a stand against a `Muslim` issue to prove that I am Indian. Check out what a lot of non-Muslims had to say during that period.

No one seems remotely interested that I agreed with ahmedmadani that India has no designs over Pakistan.

ahmedmadanisaab (#290):
Wonder why your response has not been published. It would have been enlightening for me and for others as well. Good luck to you on your article.
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#303 Posted by MantoLives on October 19, 2003 11:16:42 am
Dear alephnull,

Your defence of Sadna is short sighted ... it is sad that you have forgotten what her role on creating the gulf between Pakistanis and Indians was on this site. As for facts, I personally have called out many of her lies in the past and then she has conveniently hidden behind `I am a woman mantra`... She is a pathological liar who knows how to mix fact with fiction. And I am rather saddened that you of all people have sought to create an ad hominem fallacy about me. I am more than happy to embrace any Indian who can point out our faults for our benefit.

Someone like Arjun M is most welcome... I have never attacked him, because he has never lied... his facts are always 100% true... and I personally see him as a mirror for us Pakistanis. Same is generally true of you... but Sadna is not like both of you... I say this from personal experience...


Akhilesh,

While I second His excellency`s info... Manto`s best work is Ganjay farishtay which forms a part of `Manto Rama` I think... Manto was largely apolitical and was more so a social commentator... he migrated to Pakistan because he felt that he would find better opportunities there, but in Pakistan he failed even more miserably... that is as a screen play writer...

Was he critical of partition? I don`t know... he did write `Toba Tek Singh`... but he also wrote `Mera Sahib` which is one of the best tributes to the life of Mohammed Ali Jinnah in the Urdu language.

You can find both the stories on chowk.. translated by Godot.

-YLH


-YLH
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#302 Posted by mumbaikar on October 19, 2003 10:36:00 am
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#301 Posted by sadna on October 19, 2003 10:35:59 am
dost-mittar #290
There is an essential difference here, which you are doing no service to ordinary Pakistanis by fudging.

When Indians are deprived, their leaders blame other Indians. When certain other people are deprived, their leaders blame nonMuslims in other countries.

Musharraf has been declaring repeatedly and clearly on many international forums that if the world doesnot tackle poverty and lack of education in Muslim countries, the world must expect to suffer terrorist attacks as a consequence of Muslim discontent.

The US bought his argument and this year, gave him USAID donation of $100 million for education reform. If the reforms are not effective, any guesses about who will be blamed and at whom punishment will be directed?
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#300 Posted by ahmedmadani on October 19, 2003 10:35:59 am
I wrote a note to Ms. F.V s response.
The editors decided not to Publish.
First time I have written a article about music appreciation. Let us see what happens if its worthy of publication.
Good luck for every body.
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    #42 arjun_m
    #41 arjun_m
    #40 HisExcellency
    #39 cosmic_citizen
    #38 Ahmadzai
    #37 arjun_m
    #36 Romair
    #35 Ahmadzai
    #34 dost_mittar
    #33 Ahmadzai
    #32 Romair
    #31 arjun_m
    #30 kaurasach
    #29 HisExcellency
    #28 SameerJB
    #27 arjun_m
    #26 MantoLives
    #25 dost_mittar
    #24 cosmic_citizen
    #23 samankhan
    #22 InYourFace
    #21 InYourFace
    #20 InYourFace
    #19 arjun_m
    #18 arjun_m
    #17 cosmic_citizen
    #16 Urstruly
    #15 veeresh
    #14 afrasiyab
    #13 HisExcellency
    #12 RationalFaith
    #11 Fitaa
    #10 nazarhayatkhan
    #9 Azure
    #8 harimau
    #7 faizahussain
    #6 nazarhayatkhan
    #5 FarzanaVersey
    #4 mohammedamjed
    #3 veeresh
    #2 Ras
    #1 RationalFaith

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