The Nuclear Noose Around Pakistan’s Neck

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#144 malik99
Really, who made Mushy the head honcho! Wasn`t he elected as president? Weren`t there crowds cheering him on when he overthrew Nawaz? The whole world recognizes him as the legitimate ruler of pakistan.

rsridhar #153 While I share your optimism of a more peaceful and progressive relationship between india and pakistan in the future, and agree also that the US sees it in its interest to promote this relationship. I do not believe that China represents a threat to india or to the world, for the following reasons:

1. Historically, China has not been an aggressive nation. They have been satisfied to live within the ``Middle Kingdom`` as they called themselves. The first two decades after communist takeover (when the Chinese took over Tibet, and aggressively sought to resolve border disputes with India and with Russia) stand out as exception in a history going back 3,000 years. The Chinese have seen themselves as being surrounded by barbarians, and their major effort has been to keep the barbarians out - witness the Great Wall of China built expressly for this purpose. The Chinese armed forces today, although possessing the largest standing army in the world, are nevertheless strategically designed for defense - their navy remains a coastal defense force, with no attempt being made to develop a deep sea capability.

2. Culturally, Chinese seek fulfillment through social harmony and economic prosperity, not through territorial conquest. Witness the virtually single-minded emphasis on economic growth, and the rapidly emerging entrepreneurial class in China. Entrepreneurs seek social stability, not chaos. Despite grave injustices done to expatriate chinese in south-east asian countries, particularly indonesia (not reported much in the press), the chinese there have maintained a positive and progressive stance.

3. Politically, the Communist regime is becoming increasingly irrelevant in China - and it is a question of time before a democratic structure emerges. You cannot have a pluralistic society (which is what China is becoming) and retain one-party rule for very long.

So, I for one am very hopeful that not only will we see peace and prosperity within south asia, it will (in the profound words of Lincoln) be ``with malice towards none`` - not China, not EU and not the US. Humanity is simply moving away from competition to cooperation. Since (like Japan and Germany learnt the hard way) the rewards of cooperation are far greater than those of competition. It will of course take time for many people - whose minds are molded by the past - to recognize these realities. There remains of course the possibility of an unexpected catastrophic event - unleashing of nukes that litter the globe, unexpected and catastrophic damage to the environment resulting from genetically engineered life forms - and that is what we have to pray for never happens.

Thus, the points i was discussing earlier on this board - nukes as pakistan`s best defense ; and the indian purchase of the russian aircraft carrier - represent I think a temporary situation for the next few years until peace is well entrenched in south asia, and until both india and pakistan go the route the europeans have taken by forming the EU.

The above is a best case scenario - but i think not too unrealistic.

AQ Khan is just a scapegoat - Pak military`s perfect Qurbani for Eid.

It was never a believable proposition that the Khan Research Laboratories could have peddled anything without the concurrence of the military. The KRL was always the military`s baby. Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto wasn`t given the clearance by the military even to visit the top secret Lab!!

The deal with North Korea was essentially a ``missile for bomb`` barter. Why, on earth, would scientists like AQ Khan and Farooq want missiles in payment for personal
aggrandizement? And how could they have possibly authorized flights by the Pak military`s US-supplied C-130 transport planes for bringing home the missiles?

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TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 03, 2004 06:57:11 PM ]

Khan indicts Musharraf, Beg, Karamat

WASHINGTON: Pakistan’s disgraced nuclear scientist A.Q.Khan has implicated the country’s military ruler Pervez Musharraf and three of his predecessor army chiefs in the nuclear transgressions he has been accused of.

Khan has reportedly told investigators that Musharraf, and his predecessors Jehangir Karamat, Abdul Waheed Kakkar and Mirza Aslam Beg were among those who knew and approved of his dealings with North Korea and Iran.

No “debriefings” can be complete unless all of them were brought in and questioned together, Khan has told investigators, according to accounts from Pakistan.

Khan’s charge appears to be his counter-gambit against the country’s military establishment, which has sought to pin the proliferation charge solely on rogue scientists while absolving itself.

Pakistani officials on Sunday told journalists that Khan had signed a 12-page confession but the scientist himself is being held incommunicado.

Khan’s implication of Musharraf – revealed through his friends – is also potentially embarrassing for Washington, which on Monday indicated that it is ready to forgive and forget Pakistan’s nuclear transgressions and place its faith in General Musharraf.

Despite widespread belief in the non-proliferation community that the entire Pakistani establishment, especially the military, was in cahoots with Khan’s activities, the Bush administration was backing Islamabad in its post-haste clean up. .....

re:#137 by tahmed32
Tahmed Sahib,
I agree with your optimism that India`s growth in future would spiral growth in Pakistan too. This would happen as the 2 economies start interacting more and more in future.
US had been pushing the 2 countries for rapproachment for quite sometime. The only country to gain by Indo-Pak rivialry is China, which is trying to gain influence in the Indian Ocean region (thr` Burma and thr` the new naval base that it is building in Pak). US interest is not served if India and Pak are constantly at each other`s throat.
Finally, the 2 countries seem to be on a journey of peace and prosperity. India`s naval build up will not threaten Pak as it is part of strategic plan to limit China`s influence. India has been having strategic dialogue with US and of late both have agreed to co-operate in Nuclear and space research. M.J Akbar wrote an article recently where he claimed that India, Pak along with Russia are being considered for membership of NATO! It all falls into place. In this new paradigm, India and Pak will be partners and not rivals. China is the country US fears the most.
Sridhar

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lets face it people - pakistan has mismanaged its nuclear assets - bumbs,bums, scientists, etal the whole.

The day that scientists were found hobnobbing with the taliban, the day the americans found notes from these guys in taliban hideouts, the day the pakistanis used their nuclear blackmail the writing was the wall and all right thinking people should have voiced their opinions then - myopic.

The world was waiting for an oppurtunity to roll back the nuke program - fed up with the persistent nuclear blackmail - pakistan is the only country to keep talking of a nuclear war threat -they west and twh world gets its chance now and it is surely defanging this nuke teeth.

Pakistan has shown that it is not capable of keeping its assets intact, and it is currently a pretty lawless country (mush-e-ruff is currently being gaurded by the yanks (according to reports these parts (and there was a link to a WP story posted by arjun on this bb)) in such a situation it is but natural that the world gets anxious.

Today, on 3rd february 2004, with God as my witness, I accuse Musharraf of conspiring with west to hand the proud Pakistani people into slavery with nary a debate allowed. With buckled knees, hands extended in a gesture of begging, this man bows in front of his Western gods, asking them for their favors. Behind him stands a wretched nation who was starved for three decades by promises of ``impenetrable`` nuclear defense. Then with one bow of this General, the people who worked day and night to create a deterrent were turned into criminals.

Who gave this one un-elected man the right to determine the course of a nation of 140 million people? Who gave this man the right to make overnight decisions without even hinting on a national debate? What made this disgraced general of a proud and brave army to become more accountable to West than to his own people? What god given right this man has to turn over our people to foreign agencies?

I accuse General Musharraf of treason. I accuse him for allowing foreign agencies to roam free in our own land. I accuse him for complicity in murder of innocent people in frontier province. I accuse this man of having the audacity to impose his own brand of democracy on 140 million people.

Hey hey. ho ho. This whore of west is got to go. hey hey. ho ho.

The writer though presenting a different view of Dr. A.Q. Khan from an average Pakistani person, fails to answer so many question that spring up from the debate.

1) Dr. A. Q Khan was able to buy his bomb from a ``Dutch`` company. Also he was reportedly able to get support from the French and English. Why on earth, nuclear proliferation charges not levelled against these source?

2) Why is transfer of technology to states like North Korea and Iran is irresponsible but when US transfer it to South Africa and Israel, no one seam to cares?


On the whole, I pity Pakistani government for not been able to handle the situation and their most precious assett and the Pakistani people for being so ignorant to let them do so!

#114 by rsridhar
//...Does Pakistan still have the nuclear deterrant ....//

Well - even if it does - not for too long. Like somebody said here - this is begining of end for paki nukes.

But you would hear a lot high-pitch protest here (especially from army-brats) - a desperate last minute squeal before pakistan goes on the block for a much-deserved nuclear-ca$tration.

``Analysts`` are already in action - explaining why Pakis need the nukes. Hindu extremist bogie is being raised ad nauseam .... how hindus are going to eat pakis alive if they don`t have nukes .... And How nukes prevented wars in Kargil and elsewhere. How hindus are aggressively building miliatrily... buying aircraft carriers ... building blue water navy (which they canot maintain anyway, as per the paki ``analysts``)... and how all these are very bad for pakistan and hence pakistan needs nuke deterrent for at least next 20 years ... or until the hindu extremists come to their senses, whichever is latest.

But I don`t think this is going to work. Not anymore.

In a way - this beginning of end of pakistan as we know it. Without the nukes - there would be no mis-adventures aginst neighbors. Hopefully this will give birth to a very new pakistan - devoid of mindless bravado ... at peace at itself and others.

Pakis nukes would have to go. Time has come!

#142 by sadna

Despite what happened in past - I think this time it is different. This far and no further. With Musharraf himself being implicated in this saga - there are no more fig leaves to hide behind. No more playing nuclear footsie.

But despite all this Musharraf will stay -because he would be the clean-up guy. The janitor who would clean-up the mess created by him and his predecessors.

Soysauce #133

I gather that centrifuges for uranium enrichment are typically long cyclinders some 6 inches in diameter, spinning in evacuated chambers. They are big enough for the rpm they run at that material strength issues become a concern. For instance, high-strength steels are preferred to aluminium – the first mention I recall of any Pak bomb was an article in a now defunct weekly magazine around the end of the 70’s mentioning Pakistani attempts to procure maraging steel (which of course they can’t manufacture on their own) and the inferences about a nascent weapons program. I am making educated guesses about the other technical hurdles – the highly corrosive nature of uranium hexafluoride, the need for very accurate manufacture for rotational mass balance, the issues with bearings (unless the centrifuges are magnetically levitated), etc. The centrifuges have to be set up in a cascade for continuous operation. Getting the whole thing to work on an industrial scale would not be trivial. Technically sophisticated industrial nations like Japan, South Korea, Germany might be expected to master the process in due course. A low tech nation which, for instance, lacks a major machine tool industry, might be expected to have more trouble getting the process to run on an industrial scale. Of course I am indulging in calculated speculation – perhaps I err on the side of skepticism with regard to Pakistani capabilities.

As to other methods of enriching uranium, the first ever used was some sort of mass spectrometry (don’t know if this is the right term) or electromagnetic isotope separation (the calutron method). I suppose it would be extremely expensive for producing kilogram amounts but still enough for a bomb or two. It was used for the Hiroshima bomb; more recently Iraq was using the method at its Tarmiya facility. The first (and still popular) industrial method was the gaseous membrane diffusion method. The vapour laser isotope method you mentioned is called AVLIS.

#142 sadna
What caught the CIA off guard was the indian tests. With pakistan of course there were the well-publicized entrities from Clinton trying to stop them from carrying out tit-for-tat explosions.
Re: pak vis-a-vis other countries, until the mid-nineties, the common perception (AFAIK) was that pak was still working on the bomb. All pak leaders starting with ZA Bhutto have spoken of the islamic bomb. Therefore all the courtship that went on amongst the ummah is not surprising. What is surprising to me (& apparently also to the largely ineffective CIA) is that there was actual collaboration at the risk of worldwide condemnation.

#140
Are you saying BARC succeeded in separating the isotopes of U with laser? Any cites?

By coincidence (or not) Dr Hoodhboy was on NPRs The World today. Couldn`t find a link to the audio archive (assuming that one is available). A few salient points
1. Naturally, he is doubtful that the transactions could have occurred without some official connivance. Who disagrees?
2. However, he points out that the tarnsactions occurred in the 80s therefore are very unlikely to have involved Musharraf. He also points out that Musharraf and AQ have poor interpersonal relationships, so the latters current accusations are most likely an effort at payback for prevous and current slights.
3. However, he says that it is unlikely that `equipment` could have been transferred without offical support. I was under the impression, though, that AQ provided middlemen and technical/mechanical information, with the actual apparatus being made and shipped from elsewhere (rather than dismantling it and slipping it out while the chowkidar was having a cuppa).
4. Many Pakistanis support AQ not because of our overwhelming ideologic prerogative, but because of the double standards applied by other nuclear states, notably the USA. Plus, the US` declaration that they can use nukes anywhere, anytime make a lot of people rather nervous.
5. AQ is unlikely to actually serve jail time. He didnt explore what sort of retribution is likely to fall upon AQ.

Anybody else hear anything in that interview?

wajahat #124 just as character provides a check to an individual going off-track, at the national level it is checks and balances that provide a check to a nation from going off-track. with an increasingly interlinked world, if the checks and balances at the national level do not work, checks and balances at the international level come into play. and that i think is what we see happening here.

The thing to do is to strengthen our national checks and balances - press, opposition parties, and so forth. That is why it is so important for pakistan to steadily move in the direction of democracy.