The Nuclear Noose Around Pakistan’s Neck

#234

I`m heartbroken, et tu TAhmed. Even ROmair and HisExcellency manage a better grip on reality than this.

Pakistani paranoia knows no bounds

tahmed

Please dont spread lies. APJ Kalam is not father of indian bum. Two abduls are very different. APJ is poor typical middle-class burocrat-scientist, who hoped to live off his pension and provident fund, and had nothing to do with the bum.. he was with the space program and later the missile program. Indian bums do not have a father. They are made by sceince and engineering no-name drones. The missile man abdul mostly goes and visits students and talks about importance of studying linear algebra and funcitonal analysis. The kids dont like this, they do rather he talk about Prithvi and Agni, but they have little choice.

tahmed,

tale of two heros,

abdul kalam has a PHd from MIT, that is madras institute of technology. he joined as an engineer at ISRO in kerala, he went on to become scientific advisor to the govt, a cabinet rank position. He was a simjple man, it is said that till he became a president he had only three shirts, he hand washed them every day. He writes to the young, if possible read his book, ignited minds. He became president, he is probably the most revered person since M.K.Gandhi, not because he made the hindu bomb, but because of some values that his life expressed.
Compare this to Dr khan the maker of the islamic bomb. He accumul;ated wealth through means comparable to that of gaznavi, and hence Khan is a pak hero. Pakistanis see the similarity and honour him, there are people in the streets of pakistan to support khan.
Abdul kalam is an indian hero, he reminds indians of gandhi. Khan is a pak hero, he reminds pakistanis of gaznavi.
For tahmed hero is a hero, gandi or gaznavi, what is the difference. tahmed is a

Tahmed #234,

AlephNull and FountainHeader have replied to each one of your points quite effectively. They have done a much better job than I could ever have done.

re:#243 by gujjubania
``Infact spending $1.5 billion on an old Soviet Carrier has as much a detrimental effect on India`s finances as yours buying a vibrator for yourself and Chachijaan would have on your bank balance.``
Looks like this is what you do now-a-days. When not interacting, you seem to be jerking off in front of your computer. Whatever happened to your IIT entrance exam result?
BTW, you show yourself as someone of no class when you write such trash to sombody who is old enough to be your father. Perhaps, you talk to your father like this as well. Get a life and show some respect to people in chowk. Otherwise you will be hounded out of here.
To the Chowk editors,
I think we have all been abusive at one time or the other but we need to draw a line. The last post from this moron should have been edited.
Sridhar

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re: arjun_m

Arjun, there is a lot of speculation that the Pakistani army is involved and stands implicated in the issue of proliferating nuclear technology to Libya and Iran. Leaving aside speculation on the issue, solid facts would suggest that the army is involved. Pakistan`s nuclear program was started in the 1970s, with the agreement of the army, naval and air force chiefs upon the recommendations of Z. A. Bhutto. In 1977, Bhutto was over thrown in a coup d` etat by Zia-ul-Haq and in early 1980s, the army directly took over Pakistan`s nuclear program and since then, it has existed under the command and control of the army, which has minutely monitered the program.

The other piece of evidence is that A. Q. Khan was the sine qua non of Pakistan`s nuclear program and as such a person, he was always under the microscopic eye of the Pakistani military. A. Q. Khan can claim to be the sole person acting on his own, but reality belies that statement. Reality suggests that the army was aware of his activity and if it did not stop his intentions; it appeased his aims by feigning ignorance and in this case, it stands guilty by its complicity in the execution of the deed by which this technology was proliferated.

The fact that generals Mirza Aslam Beg and Jehangir Karamat were questioned and debriefed suggests that the army was involved and may be implicated in the issue of proliferating nuclear technology. The fact that these two were questioned, suggests that there was enough evidence to suggest that they were responsible. Another fact, which strongly hints towards the army`s involvment is that A. Q. Khan never had the authority to undertake such actions without, atleast, the tacit acknowledgement of the army.

The army does stand implicated and as the fallout from this crisis settles, there will more casualities of truth and sooner or later, the army will have to prove its own innocence. The matter as it is developing seems to suggest that whole scandal has cast of pall of doubt over the army`s innocence in the matter and the longer the army persists in denying or resisting a full inquiry into its conducts, the rumors of its misdeeds will over take the truth and create a dynamic of their own in this issue. Hence, the burden of prove rests on the army, because as things stand, what is important is not that the army be proven guilty but that the army prove its own innocence by presenting facts and evidence, which disproves the allegations that it has been accused of.

Ciao

Tahmed #234

{{a. India put a million men on our borders and year ago, threatening to overrun Pakistan.}}

Don’t forget the context (actually, I think you were never ever aware of it – you woke up from a solipsistic slumber some time in 1998): For a decade Pakistan supplies, arms, trains jihadis – its own citizens and assorted riff-raff from all over the Islamic world – to spread terror in Indian Kashmir. Pakistan ups the ante in Kargil in 1999 thinking its putative nukes shield it from effective retribution. That is followed with increased jihadic infiltration into Kashmir in 2000; suicide attacks on the Kashmir legislature in October 2000; and finally on India’s Parliament in December 2000. A major recalibration of the Pakistan Army’s cost-benefit calculus was clearly called for. The million man deployment achieved that at minimal cost to India. If you didn’t like it, you ought not to have upped the ante with India over two decades. Of course, tahmed was not aware of the prior history.

{{China has done no such thing … Indeed, if you adjust for the relative populations of india and pakistan, what india did an year ago would be equivalent to 7-8 million Chinese troops on your borders.}}

China lacks the capability to do that .. it has to deal with the worst logistical situation in the world in Tibet. What China does is more subtle. It proliferates nukes and missiles to Pakistan, both directly (nukes and M-11/M-9 missiles) and indirectly (North Korean NoDongs). It lets the hate-filled revanchism and frustrated ambition of the Pakistani state do the rest. The idea being to tie down India in a South Asian box, and defeat India without war [and also to set small proliferation fires all around the globe which the sole superpower has to spend effort quenching, while the Chinese increase their strength for an eventual showdown 5 decades from now].

So the Indian strategic community sees Pakistan, like the Myanmarese regime as a pawn in China’s attempts to encircle India. Lay members of India’s attentive public, such as me, regard the Pakistani state as China’s vicious little attack dog, not subtle unlike its master, but straining at the leash with fangs bared, ugly, stupid, and utterly unmindful of the damage it does to its own body (i.e. the Pakistani pooulation). Sorry to be blunt, but that is an accurate summary of my opinion of the Pakistani state.

{{b. India blasted 5 nukes next to our borders 5 years ago. China does its blasting in Lop Nor in the Gobi desert, on the opposite side of the indian border.}}

Pokharan is India’s testing range for nukes and other armaments… was the site of the 1974 test as well. It is normal for underground tests to be carried out in desert areas – low population density, less of a water table to contaminate. Most of India is not desert, is densely populated and fertile, therefore plainly unsuitable for nuclear testing. [Whereas much of Pakistan’s land area is desert, and so is most of China’s – these two nations may have more freedom in choosing their testing sites than India would. You are reading too much significance into the location (I realize in retrospect that paranoid Pakistanis would do just that but I doubt that Indians meant to send you a message through location).

{{c. Indian blasts were followed with direct verbal threats to Pakistan by Advani - the number two man in India. China did no such thing.}}

No, China only provided their attack dog Pakistan with the wherewithal (nukes and missiles) to confront India. Advani’s threats – absolutely appropriate, IMO, and very well articulated for the intended audience – are a matter we can deal with separately.

{{d. Both for a. and b. above, jingoism took a nose-dive in india when pakistan responded in kind}}

‘Jingoism’ is the preserve of a small and stupid fringe – VHP, Shiv Sena, etc. and not representative of either the Indian population or the attentive public or the government. I doubt real jingos would be deterred by any response, any more than Pakistani jihadis are deterred by the prospect of being minced by the Indian army.

What is more important is the resolve among thinking people and cool heads to nail Pakistan to the mast. That resolve was not affected by the Pakistani tests, which were dearly desired, anticipated, and factored into calculations. That resolve has not waned one bit; I would say there has been a great deal of progress towards that goal of fixing Pakistan for good.

Pakistan became a target of Indian taunts in the wake of the 1998 Indian tests because it chose to get embroiled with Indian nuclear issues from the mid 80s, in the pursuit or equal-equal and out of a desire to harass and embarrass India. Namely, it would declare its readiness to sign the NPT and CTBT if India did so. Non-proliferation types in the west actually played along with this charade to gain leverage against India. It was necessary to drag Pakistan out of the nuclear closet, kicking and screaming, against the wishes of the US, the West, Japan, etc. so that Pakistan’s putative nuclear capacity and Chinese proliferation became the whole world’s problem, not just India’s.

One of the goals of the Indian political effort in the wake of the Indian tests was to delink Pakistan from India, despite Pakistan’s frantic efforts to remain bracketed with India. I believe that effort too has been largely successful – today only the Romairs and their ilk insist that India and Pakistan are or will always remain in the same bracket.

Tahmed #234

{{e. The father of the indian nukes was promoted to president in india.}}

No sahib. This is what happens when you get your ‘facts’ from the Pakistani press. Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam is not the father of the Indian bomb; he has never made any such claim. Nor is he a scientist. He was trained as an aeronautical engineer and developed rockets, space vehicles and finally missiles through his professional career. He was head of the DRDO at the end of his engineering career and in that capacity might have had to deal with issues of integrating nuclear devices with missile warheads. He has had a long-standing interest in technology in India’s service – articulated in several books published well before he became President.

I’m not sure who ought to be called the ‘father of the Indian nukes’. Not Chidambaram, who was in charge of the 1998 tests. Raja Ramanna? Homi Bhabha (who died in the late 60s)?

{{China did no such thing.}}

Do you really think a direct comparison between the polities of authoritarian China and democratic India is warranted? Particularly when you’ve just demonstrated that you don’t know the first thing about President Kalam?

Tahmed #234

{{h. I have already discussed the matter of the gorshkov. I have received plenty of emotional responses from indian posters,}}

Sahib, you are becoming more like Romair with every passing day.

{{and not one explanation of what mission it is expected to serve.}}

What purpose does an aircraft carrier serve? It provides a task force with its own integral air power. Multiple helicopters for anti-submarine warfare and airborne early warning; fixed wing aircraft to provide air cover; with some attack capacity against surface ships and land targets left over after air defence needs are taken care of. Without a carrier, a task force is limited to perhaps a single helicopter on its larger ships, no interceptors, so is vulnerable to both aircraft and submarines once it is out of range of shore-based air power.

At a higher level, the carrier allows a fleet to operate with much greater safety out of the range of land-based air cover.

At a higher level still, the carrier allows its owner to implement a sea-control doctrine (as opposed to only sea-denial which is what you would get with just destroyers and submarines). This means protection of your own sea lines of communication - freedom for your own and friendly merchant vessels to sail unhindered to and from your ports - and the ability to prevent your foe from doing the same. A supercarrier such as only the US possesses would additionally have a lot of land attack capability. Carriers the size of the Gorshkov or the Viraat don’t, except against an especially weak adversary.

Why is sea-control important to India? Because most of its crude oil import and international trade happens via the sea; it is important to keep India’s SLOCs open in a future conflict.

Is that a sufficient explanation of the mission of a Gorshkov-sized carrier is expected to serve?

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#181 by fountainheader on February 4, 2004 6:13am PT

Agreed! But I was speaking in the present context of the Indo-Pak slanging match !(HA!) Sometimes these jigoistic terms like ``better``, ``pride``, ``pure`` can be effective in the slandering match!!

re:#234 by tahmed32
I do believe some of the things you say are inaccurate. While it is impossible for me to get rid of some of your biases, i hope to convince you or your inaccuracies.
1. ``India blasted 5 nukes next to our borders 5 years ago. China does its blasting in Lop Nor in the Gobi desert, on the opposite side of the indian border.``
India is not to blame. You can explode a nuclear device only in a desert. In India`s case, Rajasthan desert happens to be near the Pak border. I am not sure if Russians relished the Chinese explosions so close to their borders.

2. ``Indian blasts were followed with direct verbal threats to Pakistan by Advani - the number two man in India. China did no such thing.``
It is now becoming so plain that India was right in the 80s in accusing Pak and China of proliferating. US would not listen and wanted to talk about trade instead! Today, it has come to light (or rather it has been made public; US knew about this for sometime now) that China had passed on its 60`s design of nuclear device to Pak and that Pak had been proliferating to other countries including Libya, North Korea its centriguge technology that it had gotten from Holland. When India accused Pak of the very same thing in the late 80s, US did not want to listen.
India exploded the bomb because it became meaning less to keep it in the closet when both its enemies in the neighbourhood were proliferating. Once India exploded, Pak exploded a a tit-for-tat response (L.K.Advani adding the needed ammunition to challenge Pak`s ego) thereby proving to the world that Pak had all along possessed the bomb. Today, the world is learning the finer details of what the Indians had suspected long ago.

3. ``The father of the indian nukes was promoted to president in india.``
Abdul Kalam is in a different category. He is a scientist, a Tamil poet, a sanskrit scholar and a philosopher, all in one. He did not have to pilfer any technology from any nation. What he did was to build a team of excellent scientists and motivated them to work for a clear goal. He is respected by everyone in India. He leads a spartan life (unlike your Abdul Xerox Khan who has amassed wealth) and has dedicated his life to improving India`s defense so India can stand up to the great powers in future. Power is what other nations respect. Abdul Kalam is not a nuclear scientist as you wrongly point out. He helped build India`s missiles. You can go to www.abdulkalam.com to learn more about him. His selection to the highest office was approved by politicians across political spectrum.

4. On the purchase of the Russian ship Gorshov, i have little to say except that its purchase has been preceded by a lot of debate in the parliament and in the press. It has taken more than a decade of negotiations. This is as transparent as it gets in that part of the world. You cannot expect Indians to hold a Congressional hearing on the purchase of the Russian Ship with expert testimonies and witnesses and hearing telecast live on T.V as is done in USA.
Sridhar

Tahmed #197

{{Thank you for unintentionally providing evidence}}

Why unintentionally? I’m pointing out what is patently obvious to all those not reared on the Pakistani state ideology of equal-equal with India. India is the region’s eight-hundred pound gorilla; all the other sub-continental countries are pygmies. The sooner Pakistanis learn to accept the reality that they can’t hope to compete the better for everyone.

{{to support my contention that Pakistanis should not let their guard down with India until the Indian government becomes more mature and stops trying to be what it can never be - a latter day Great Power in the 19th century mold.}}

Yes, I know of your fixation with Great Powers. You’ve been peddling this on Chowk for one-and-a-half years.

{{The Age of Great Powers is over. Pax Americana is a transitional phase, and the UN/NATO will no doubt replace Pax Americana some years from now.}}

Famous last words. No doubt, eh? If and when Pax Americana ends, it will be replaced by increased jostling for power and influence in a multipolar world, a repetition of the never-ending cycle. Large countries who aren’t equipped to play the game at that time will become the playing field. Minor powers like Pakistan had better stay out of the game entirely or else they’ll become the football.

{{And what exactly has India achieved with Vikrant other than waste money?}}

I suggest you look up the record of the 1971 war. The Vikrant, despite a cracked boiler, played an important role in cutting off and completely bottling up East Pakistan. Its Seahawk aircraft carried out multiple hard-hitting attacks on the ports of Chittagong and Cox’s Bazaar. It probably hastened the liberation of Bangladesh by a few days, making it impossible for Pakistan to get any terms except unconditional surrender in the East. Also, the PNS Ghazi, lured to the Bay of Bengal to attack the carrier, was detected and sunk by the IN. Sounds good enough for me… Oh, I forgot, according to Tahmed,1971 was not a victory for India, but a walkover … so stupid of me.

{{On``the expected acquisition of Akula class nuclear submarines and Tu-22 Backfire long-range strategic bombers``, what is the purpose of these? I think these are simply a reflection of that same dumb goal of making India a Great Power.}}

Let me see if I’ve got this right. You think Pakistan should have a ‘multiple nuclear delivery capacity’ composed in part of nuclear submarines. Presumably these are in Pakistan’s legitimate security interest. When India acquires nuclear submarines it is with the dumb goal of ‘making India a Great Power.’ Even you seem to realize that the Backfires are massive overkill for Pakistan. They are just right for providing ‘multiple delivery capacity’ onto the heads of the Chinese Stalinists. Just like the Akulas. But no, for Tahmed it is “that same dumb goal of making India a Great Power.”

Tahmed #197


{{If you seriously think that India can afford to seek a deep sea navy that has no clear aim, then I think India has more resources to spare than not just the Soviet Union but the US as well.}}

Sahib, are you familiar with Indian strategic thinking? What do you know of their long-range prognostications? Has it occurred to you that the Indian establshment has lots and lots of people who are far far more clued in than you? I would guess not. Learn not to project the Pakistani military establishment’s intellectual limitations onto India and Indians. It does not extrapolate that way.

{{This is the same monumental blunder India is now making that was made when the Indian government blew the first nuclear bomb back in 1973 I think: there was no clear aim for that bomb, and the net result has been to achieve what we Pakistanis could never have achieved - a military stalemate in south asia.}}

Sahib, you are the archetypical Pakistani military mind, along with Romair. When India does what it has to, it is either targeting and bullying Pakistan or pursuing the dumb goal of becoming a great power without any clear aim; its actions are indicative of an arrogant and jingoistic mindset; in either case it made a monumental blunder. When Pakistan does something, it’s always ‘India made us do it’, ‘we have no choice until the Indian deep blue sea dreamers come out of their power trip and return to their senses’, ‘ India has plunged the entire region into an arms race to the detriment of starving millions’, etc. When will you learn to delink your actions from India’s?

And let me repeat the chronology one more time – India’s first device was exploded in 1974. Pakistan’s decision to fabricate a bomb was taken in January 1972 in Multan – i.e. just after the Bangladesh debacle. Saying ‘India made us do it’ just won’t wash. We’ve been through all this before on Chowk – you just don’t want to face facts.

You Pakistanis should really stop trying to keep up with the Kapoors next door. They just have more resources than you. Don’t try to punch above your weight class. Otherwise I see no end to your nation’s torments.

{{But what do I know. I am just a dumb Pakistani, a citizen of an enemy country. Go ahead and buy what you like and pretend that India is a wealthy country while your people starve. But just remember what I have written when you look back 20 years from now. You wont be so upset with me then}}

Sahib, you have gotten hold of the wrong end of the stick. I am not upset with you – on the contrary. I am just trying to show you with light. And I don’t want Pakistan as India’s enemy – I want Pakistan reduced to irrelevance.

Steven Mosher`s book Hegemon is the best refutation I know of the notion that China has historically not sought domination over other peoples. Mosher demonstrates that a well-developed notion of hegemony (Ba in Chinese) has a 2800-year old history and completely permeates the Chinese national dreamwork, their notions of themselves and their destiny, and their strategic culture. The preferred Chinese model of the world was of a single hegemonic hyperpower – China, who else - surrounded by tributary vassal barbarian peoples.

Also, from IDSA: here is a survey of Chinese efforts in the direction of acquiring aircraft carrier capability. Additionally rebuts some notions about China supposedly lacking blue-water ambitions.

Dragon`s Dragonfly: The Chinese Aircraft Carrier