The Nuclear Noose Around Pakistan’s Neck

ironman
Re makar-vilakku

What I heard was that it was the KSEB and/or forest tribals.

Thanks for the brief primer. I reiterate that I only commented on the propulsion of the missiles, since the SA-2 and the Prithvi are completely different missiles in terms of function and as such are not at all likely to share other characteristics (and wouldn`t you know that a person would *be* a rocket scientist).

And that`s *if* the rocket motor is the same in the Ghauri. God knows, it may well be. But then why do the Iranians have problems with their missiles that the Pakistanis and N Koreans do not have (since the comment is that they are all the same).

I wonder.. given that (as far as I know) many components of the LCA that was being designed by India were coming from abroad, such as the engines (and yes, I googled again.. the Kaveri engine doesnt look anywhere close to completion) can that be correlated? Obviously not, IF one assumes that the LCA is purely indigenously designed and the Ghauri is just a knock off with no indigenous mods. And can we take any meaning from the so far unsuccessful Indian MBT - which should be considerably easier! - compared with the Al_khalid (which, of course, uses a Ukrainian power plant!).

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One good thing about Prof. Hoodbhoy is that he doesnot feel victimised because posters disagree with him. This could be because he is absent, but so what, a person`s good qualities should be appreciated whatever the cause of his/her displaying those qualities.

Layman #323 If Kalam is indeed as you and freethinker before you say (and I have no reason to think otherwise), then certainly he could be a useful to us in Pakistan as well, for the following reason:

a. Kalam kept his country`s defense secrets to himself. Qadeer sold his nation`s defense secrets to all callers in the arms bazaar for personal gain.

b. Kalam lives simply. Qadeer lives like a high roller.

I am glad that both PPP/PML(N) - these being the main opposition now in Pakistan to the Military Mullah Complex that is protecting Qadeer - are speaking out loud and clear in questioning the pardon given to Qadeer and calling for a full and open investigation into the matter. No doubt they could point to Kalam as an example of how Qadeer SHOULD have behaved if he was indeed loyal to Pakistan, rather than loyal to his bank balance and personal ego. I dont think we have heard the last of the Qadeer affair - I have no doubt his career is finished. But whether Mushy will manage to ensure full justice is done here remains to be seen.

re:#323 by Layman
Most, if not all, Pakis would not like what they read about Abdul Kalam. He is not the kind of hero they associate a muslim with. Pak`s heros are Md Ghazni, Tipu sultan, OBL. They have not even given any prominence to the best scientist they have ever produced (or shall ever produce) viz Prof Abdus Salam, just because the latter again does not fit the description of an Islamic Hero. Heck, they do not even think he is a muslim! Instead, that highest place was reserved for a thug and a proliferator with no scientific merits whatsoever. No country outside Pak has bestowed any award on Abdul ``Xerox`` Khan while sometimes ago in another forum i had posted a list of numerous awards that Abdus Salam won outside Pak (even India bestowed on him a few awards; such was his caliber).

Someone who can quote sanskrit verses as easily as Qoran, who can recite poetry in Tamil and has little knowledge of Urdu or Arabic and above all has worked for India`s security interests is not going to be liked by Pakis. I do not blame people like tahmed and others.
It is great that Indians of all hue can accept Abdul Kalam as a hero. It goes to show that Inidia, at its core, is a secular nation.
Sridhar

``If you`re a rocket scientist, I`ll accept your critique to laypeople throwing terms around that they have no right using``

That was my official designation a few years back (sigh)...before the lure of lucre turned me into a code coolie.

- - - -

OK, on to business.

Both the SA-2 and the Prithvi use solid-propellant boosters to get them off the ground quickly and safely and then use a liquid-propellenat for the refined control a goodly accurate missile needs.

There the similarities end.

Now, you`ll see a ***LARGE*** number of SAMs with this same general design.
Check out: http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/app1/index.html ...if you have the time.

(Hey, even our space rockets use this idea).

So its gratuitous to say that the prithvi is designed after the SA-2.

- - - -

Things like choice of `stage design` and `propellants` hve been perfected long ago. So theres little to `choose` for a designer in that. For example RFNA (red fuming nitric acid) and kersone are standard choices for oxidizer and fuel.

The real problems start when you test ***your particular configuration***: chamber size, flow rate, splash plate design, etc, etc, etc. Its impossible to have an off-the-shelf design. You HAVE to do all tests, make modifications...till the design is perfected..or abandon it and start again.

Every once in a while the rocket explodes on the test stand just because it feels like it.

- - - -

So if the ghauri has somewhat reduced external dimensions, but its rocket motor is the exact same as the nodong...that doesn`t count as reverse-engineering.

Why the heck am I educating the enemy??? Oh, well... ;)

In case you`re interested, get this book by John D. Clark (Ignition). It has a humorous but informative description of rocket fuels and the life of a rocket engineer.

#319 by Assad_K
``And who the frell cares? If we reverse-engineered the No_Dong thats a feat of its own.``
Ha, Ha, Ha.
Dude,
Are you out of your mind? You say: who cares? The world cares. Every responsible country outside Pak cares. May be you as a Paki do not care. But then, you must have figured out by now, no one outside of Pak gives a rat`s a$$ to what a Paki thinks.
The latest Shaheen has a 2000 km range, so said your dictator proudly in his news conference. Do you think the Israelis would not care about that bit of news?
Nobody would have begrudged Pak its nuclear deterrance vis-a vis India. But Pak proved that it is not a responsible nuclear state. That is the crux of the matter. Megalomaniacal Abdul ``Xeorx`` Khan thought he can teach west a lesson by proliferating to irresoponsible dictatorial regimes like North Korea, Libya. Now that is something the world very much cares.
Sridhar
P.S: I doubt Pak reverse engineered anything. They just changed the shape and length of the missile. Rest is all borrowed technology.

Agreed, Layman, in terms of scientific qualifications there is no comparison betwixt the two Abduls. On the one hand an egomaniac claiming all manner of qualifications to which he is not entitled (though yes, an organizer par excellence), and on the other hand a person of genuine intellect and genuine interest in his country rather than himself. For the benefit of Aleph, Harimau, ironman etc - I mean AQ as the former, Kalam as the latter. Your entire post is spot-on.

Sigh.. as always, people reading so much more into posts. I didnt say anything like that, Ironman. I was talking solely about the Ghauri and the No-Dong. And yes, what a tremendous feat of deduction.. I used a Yahoo search, but since its the same engine, I suppose you could say a Google search. It was, in fact, the same FAS site. And propulsion technology, I assume, the means by which the rocket, she go fly bye bye into da sky? I didn`t comment on the other technology, guidance etc, that went into it (though, that said, I hear the guidance technology is not too hot.. I know, I know, `what do I mean by guidance technology`. If you`re a rocket scientist, I`ll accept your critique to laypeople throwing terms around that they have no right using).

Or did you mean that India went back to first replicate on its own the principles of flight, rocketry etc before the Prithvi came about? Well, why not. Given that maths and rocketry both come from India (right) it was those pesky Boche that were copying Indian technology. The cads.

Surface-air missiles? Like the Anza, you mean. Which, yes, is a derivative of one of those Arrow missiles, right? Red or Green, I forget. Naval missiles? Not to worry, if we need one, we`ll touch up a Silkworm with a dab of green paint, christen it `Hamza` or something and light the fuse.

#312 tahmed32:
``MaheshG #303 Perhaps Kalam is a scholar-statesman - he is your president and as long as he doesnt threaten at every opportunity (as some of your other BJP-types like to do) to teach us pakistanis a lesson, then I wish him all the best. India has indeed had some fine scholar-statesman as presidents, Dr. Radhakrishnan notably. Kalam did come to prominence on account of his missile-making skills and not on account of a political career - I think you will agree. After all, I am sure there are other muslim members of the BJP too.``
Tahmed, I would urge you and other Pakistani chowkies to read up on Abdul Kalam. He is as far removed from AQKhan, as he can be. Abdul Kalam is not a nuclear scientist, but a missile technologist. An extremely simple man, he used to live in a one-room place (no, not a one-bedroom) before he moved into Rashtrapati Bhavan (the Presidential palace). When he was elected President, his extended family came to visit him (by second class train) all the way from Rameshwaram in Tamil Nadu, and he paid for their tickets. The man himself is a bachelor. He is genuinely interested in India`s progress, and has written a couple of books (one his autobiography and the other how to make India a developed country by 2020). I have had the privelege to listen to his speech when he came to my city for a visit. He is a simple guy in speech, manners and no ego, but has high ideals and aspirations for India.
I think the BJP totally misused him in making him President, it was a political act after Gujarat riots. But he is the ideal Indian Muslim from the sangh parivar point of view, as he is interested in the Indian holy books, Indian classical music and is a (egg-eating) vegetarian.
I am slightly disappointed in Kalam, because he failed to criticise BJP or even the communal forces in general for Gujarat. He has not made any politically strong acts (like refusing to dissolve the Lok Sabha prematurely), but that is not expected of our Presidents anyway. He is a total political novice, but a major inspiration for all Indian youth, irrespective of their region or religion.
One more thing, Kalam refused to make his first official trip abroad till he has visited every state and Union Territory in India.

Assad_K #319,

Good try!

So pakistan is more or less on the same technological level as india as far as missile techinology is concerned...right?!

So we`re all adding a little bit here and there to Von Braun, eh?!

So...then....when are you pakis developing Surface-Air and Naval missiles...next week???
Its so easy right? I mean put in some masala into the chamber and light it...and off it goes...whoooosh!

- - - -

I know you know next to nothing about missile design...but let me ask you anyway...what did you mean by this:

``The Prithvi uses propulsion technology derived from the Sov SA-2.``

(I know you probably got that with a google on prithvi.
Just want to see how much you actaully know)

Harimau: you write about me `` Instead of arguing about India`s defence policies with ``jingoistic Indians`` like you, I think he needs to ask someone whom he holds in high esteem, namely that complete fraud Soysauce``

You just lied above.

If you do not accept the fact that you lied in your above statement, kindly cut and paste from any post I have ever written on chowk where (a) I have called fountainheader a ``jingoistic Indian``, and/or (b) I have demonstrated high appreciation for anything Soysauce has written that you consider to be a fraud (I incidentally do not interact much with Soysauce anyway).

PS: Here is a radical concept for you: The thing to hold in high esteem is the facts. If something doesnt ring true, reject it regardless of where the cookie crumbles. If something appears false, reject it. This keeps life simple. Try it sometimes. You might find you can live perfectly well without lying, as you just did above.

Coming back to the subject of this article.

Here is an indication that there is life yet in the secular parties in Pakistan (from today`s Dawn):

``ARD chairman Makhdoom Amin Fahim, disputing Gen Musharraf`s authority to pardon nuclear scientist Dr A.Q. Khan after holding him guilty of nuclear proliferation, demanded on Friday that the matter should be taken to parliament for a final decision. ...He said the nation must be apprised of the inquiry report and the justification for waiving the punishment...Amin Fahim was of the view that it was unfair on the part of the relevant authorities to exonerate the military people and hold the civilians guilty...He said the dubious proceedings of the entire episode had no credibility and the matter should be referred to the bicameral legislature...``

A globalsecurity site is http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/cv.htm, which includes the IDSA article as one of its references. However, even the IDSA article far from states a Chinese carrier as a certainty in the imminent future. A relevant quote from the globalsecurity article is

``The PLA Navy has studied the acquisition of an aircraft carrier since the mid-1980s, and there are persistant reports that China has plans to launch a 40,000 ton class aircraft carrier by 2010. While the navy has lobbied for a carrier for many years, their proposals have been overruled by the Central Military Commission. This decision may have been motivated by a desire not to be seen to be adding a major new capability to China`s maritime forces, with consequent adverse regional reaction. From a purely military perspective, a Chinese aircraft carrier would be expensive to operate, and carrier would be vulnerable to attack by aircraft, fast surface vessels and submarines.``

Of course, it goes on to point out the benefits that could be obtained by having a carrier. Nontheless, given that its 2004 and there seems to be no carrier being constructed, its unlikely that any indigenous Chinese carrier would emerge by the 2010 hypothesized deadline. One could of course be purchased between now and then if the Chinese decide to go back into the force-projection mindset, but that doesn`t seem to be the direction that they are going in, being more interested in economic dominance. Thats where the Chinese-Indian fight-to-the-death is going to be.

Personally, given that Indian analysts are as self serving as Pakistani ones, I certainly would hesitate to believe IDSA, SAAG or their ilk. And AlephNull, given that he is candid enough to point out his feelings towards Pakistan (literally seeing us as sons-of-bitches!) comes out as a more articulate Jay.

Regarding the perpetual Ghauri/No-dong (and as an aside.. the fact that people choose to mock the Korean language by jeering at the No-dong`s name is quite.. fascinating), a 1998 article is
http://www.fas.org/news/pakistan/1998/05/980512-ghauri.htm

A relevant quote is

``If the mass figures reported for the Ghauri are correct, the missile appears to be somewhat smaller than the North Korean Nodong missile. The Nodong mass (about 15 tonnes of fuel and 18.5 tonnes total mass if the body is made of aluminum)[15] is estimated to be a couple of tonnes larger than the reported Ghauri values. The Nodong with a similar fuel fraction (85%) would give a longer range than the Ghauri for the same payload-1200 to 1250 kilometers for a 700-kilogram payload.

Similarly, from the photos of the Ghauri launch that were released by Pakistani television, one can get a very rough estimate of the size of the missile based on the trucks in the background.[16] From this, the missile appears to be very roughly the same size as, though possibly smaller than, the Nodong, which is reported to be 15.2 meters long and 1.2 meters in diameter.[17]

Thus, the available information appears to be consistent with a missile that uses technology and a configuration similar to the Nodong, but which is somewhat smaller than a Nodong. ``

Perhaps it is reverse engineering rather than the usual jeers of blue-and-red being painted over with green-and-white. Though from the FAS website, side-by-side stats of the Ghauri and No-dong are identical. Interestingly, though the Iranian Shahab-3 is also a No-Dong variant, the comment on it having problems with the spin-up technology to prevent tumbling of the warhead, the Ghauri does not have that problem.

And who the frell cares? If we reverse-engineered the No_Dong thats a feat of its own. The Prithvi uses propulsion technology derived from the Sov SA-2. We`re all copying and improving on Werner von Braun.