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The Nuclear Noose Around Pakistan’s Neck

Pervez Hoodbhoy February 2, 2004

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listing 64-80   1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

#65 Posted by Ralph on February 2, 2004 5:40:35 pm
``However there is one big difference between how India handles such issues and how Pakistan handles similar issues. India handles them, keeping in mind its own limitations. Pakistanis tend to look at only principles``


HA HA HA HA

The brilliant world of Romair :)
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#66 Posted by arjun_m on February 2, 2004 5:40:35 pm
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#67 Posted by arjun_m on February 2, 2004 5:40:35 pm
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#68 Posted by veeresh on February 2, 2004 7:02:57 pm
An article on nuclear power in Pakistan becomes, like so many other Pakistan specific issues, another Indo-Pak issue. So question for the Pakistanis here - why must everything in Pakistan be w.r.t. India?

Please understand one major difference between India and Pakistan - governance of India by its political rulers does not imply military strength only or as the major component for strengthening perception or fact of the people. It seems to be the other way around in Pakistan. Almost everything is justified in Pakistan as long as the interest of the military is paramount, the people be damned.

To give you an example - Indian newspapers have carried more than one report on the passing away of General Niazi, but probably the best memorial/obituary reference cum editorial was by General JFR Jacob in today`s Indian Express. Apart from finally publishing the truth that 30000 Pakistani soldiers surrendered to 3000 Indian troops in Dacca/Dhaka `71, General Jacob also outlines how Niazi`s role as per his instructions was to simply withdraw Pakistani soldiers to Wagah, not to surrender to the Indian Army. There was simply no political or humanitarian angle. Me, my regiment, my regiment`s honour, jangi laat, nothing more. It seems the same time warp continues in Pakistan. But it does not do so in India. So what is the basis of comparision?

Point I am making is - nuclear weapons or not, it seems all actions in Pakistan are still aimed only at military might. That`s not the case in India, where military might makes just one more component to a larger mosaic. I mean, please search the internet as I have done, and tell me why trying to find references to the beneficial attributes of nuclear power seems to be totally absent from the Pakistani mind?

So please revisit all nuclear or not discussions in Pakistan within the Pakistani context. The Pakistani military keeps the debate alive to project the permanence of its own bubble. The truth is, to borrow the words of another General, S. Padmanabhan who was COAS in 2002, that the nuclear weapon is not a war fighting weapon, it like an expensive ornament, takes years to make, wear it once or twice and then keep it in a vault.

In no circumstances can India or Pakistan ever exchange more than one strike each, to quote General Padmanabhan again.

Incidentally, there is another school of thought that Pakistan`s nuclear might is and was about as genuine as Iraq`s WMDs. Any comments on this?
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#69 Posted by ironman on February 2, 2004 8:15:20 pm

If you ask me, I think this AQ Khan is a big fraud.

So he`s been purifying U235 since `74...OK.

So, he`s been making bomb designs since `74...OK.

Why, why, why...did Nawaz sharif thank the chinese so profusely after pakistan`s `98 blasts????...24 year later!!

Those who saw Nawaz speaking on that day will have no other words. It was an `ultra profuse` thanks to the chinese gentleman on the podium. Nothing less.

Now that makes me wonder. What did the chinese do in the 2 weeks for Nawaz to literally kiss their feet.

- - - - -

My guess is that china provided the patakas...to save pakistan`s izzat.

Khan seems to have mastered little more than the dutch technology he stole...as confirmed by british scientists who visited the iranian plants.

So OK...so lets assume he has enough U235. What else does he need?

Bomb designs.

Did he spent 24 years without perfecting a single design??? What else can the chinese have helped with???

So is it pakistan`s U235 and chinese design? ...all in two weeks? Unlikely.

- - - - -

And there`s the other matter of the missiles. As PH has stated correctly, Khan did little more than repaint the korean Nodongs (what a name).

Yet, he advertised his laboratory (KHL) as the `ONLY` lab in the world that **manufactures** both nukes and missiles !!! This is a cheap liar and megalomaniac.

Well, in the end he conned his own people who gave him enormous wealth and status in return for a few half-truths.

Not a half-bad life!
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#70 Posted by AlephNull on February 2, 2004 8:15:21 pm
veeresh #68

{{Incidentally, there is another school of thought that Pakistan`s nuclear might is and was about as genuine as Iraq`s WMDs. Any comments on this?}}

Let me cut to the chase. Why should one believe that Pakistan detonated a uranium bomb at Chagai, rather than a plutonium device, hastily acquired from their friends the Chinese? Is there any incontrovertible evidence that Pakistan has the capacity to produce bomb-grade high-enriched uranium on an industrial scale (i.e., at least say 15-25 kg of HEU a year, enough for a single fission weapon a year)? I frankly favour the possibility that the Kahuta facility is a Potemkin village. Xerox Khan`s braggart nature, the exactly parallel loudmouth chest-thumping persona of the Pakistani state, and the obvious value to a capsizing state of a bomb as a tool to blackmail the west, would of course preclude ever admitting this outside a very small circle of power.
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#71 Posted by tahmed32 on February 2, 2004 8:15:21 pm
jang #57 couldnt agree more. our military boys may be power hungry, but in india they are just plain dumb. the thing that is surprising is that in a huge democracy like india, no one bothers to question the stupidity behind these BJP dreams of making india some kind of a Great Power. (at least not to my knowledge.. and what do I know).

My indian friends on chowk will hate me for this, but 20 years from now they will look back and say ``Mr. tahmed32 spoke the truth. Why did we not listen to his words of wisdom. What WERE we thinking when we let these fools in delhi spend 1.5 billion dollars to buy this piece of shi!t from the russians.``)
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#72 Posted by Layman on February 2, 2004 8:15:21 pm
It is interesting to watch the Pakistani govt/army take on the ``father of the Islamic bomb``, under American pressure. Pakistan has broken no law or treaty. However it had made assurances to the international community that it was not a proliferator, it was a responsible nuclear power and would never proliferate nuclear technology. It is because of these repeated assurances that the now publicised proliferation cannot be tolerated.

Clearly, Pakistan has not been able to prevent a few scientists-and-military leaders from sharing nuclear secrets; or the Pakistani government has wilfully done so. I personally think that the latter is true, and that the military is responsible for deliberately sharing nuclear technology. The Pakistani nuclear program is controlled by its military and not civilian leadership. Hence, if anything, it is Musharraf and/or his predecessor generals who are to be blamed for deliberate nuclear proliferation, despite assuring the international community to the contrary. Pakistan has once again proved that it is a liar and incapable of being trusted on the most important matters.

Musharraf and Pakistan`s strategy on many fronts seems to be short-sighted in nature and its actions are for short-term gains, without counting the long-term pains. That is why Pakistan is unfortunate to have such reckless leadership from the military. Its civilian rulers, though corrupt and inept (like every poltical leadership in the region), would not have had the guts for nuclear proliferation. This is just one more reason why Pakistan being a democracy is important to the rest of the world.
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#73 Posted by tahmed32 on February 2, 2004 8:15:21 pm
veeresh #68 you write ``Incidentally, there is another school of thought that Pakistan`s nuclear might is and was about as genuine as Iraq`s WMDs. Any comments on this? ``

Oh no! The secret is out!! What will we do now!!

Ha! ha!

I must say that between you and arjun and chaltahai I have enough specimen for my petri dish for today. What do they feed you boys in delhi that makes you so smart?? (holy cow brains, maybe??)
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#74 Posted by tahmed32 on February 2, 2004 8:15:21 pm
chaltahai #67 you write ``I am the least bit impressed by your so called ``analysis````

My entire chowk career is ruined!!
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#75 Posted by rajsinghi1 on February 2, 2004 8:15:21 pm
On the issue/question of whether Pakistani nukes deterred India or not from attacking, here is some information...







http://in.news.yahoo.com/040202/43/2b9kz.html


quote:


``The massive deployment was preparatory to going to war,`` Padmanabhan said, referring to the mobilization of troops on the border following the December 2001 terrorist attack on the Indian parliament that New Delhi blamed on Pakistan-based outfits.

``The windows were there, one gigantic open window (to launch war)``, but the cabinet decision never came, he said, adding the decision to launch operations had to be taken at the political level.

Padmanabhan disagreed the 10-month-long deployment was a ``futile exercise`` and said it was used for intensive training of troops in war-like conditions.

He brushed aside suggestions that Pakistan`s nuclear deterrence had prevented the war, saying Islamabad had no credible deterrent at that time.

``They were naked,`` he contended.



http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-470792,curpg-1.cms


quote:


In a throwback to the days of Indo-Pak tensions following the terror attack on Parliament, the then Army Chief Gen S Padmanabhan today said ``favourable circumstances and tides`` were allowed to ``pass`` during the year-long full-fledged army deployment in Operation Parakram which was ``conceived for specific operational purposes``.

Strongly rebutting a suggestion that Pakistan`s nuclear deterrence had acted as a ``dampener`` to any cross border operations by India, he said, ``Pakistan`s response had been adequately studied and factored in. No, they had nothing. We had them by the tail``.
...
While refusing to go into specific war plans saying that service restrictions did not allow him to disclose them, he said that during the operation ``circumstances and tides were very favourable to India. They passed time and again``.



He said Op Parakram deployment was ``cogent`` and in place by January 8 and said whether to launch or not to launch operations was political.

Asked if US intervention had stalled the operations at the last moment, Padmanabhan said, ``I would not like to talk about it``.

For the first time, the former army chief said that during the operation even army commanders were not given the nuclear button which remained with the Chairman, Chief of Staff Committee who held it for political high command.

...

The General said that preparations for ``operations`` were ``almost on the cards till the Republic day`` but were changed by the country`s political leadership.



To a volley of questions whether the deployment had served its purpose, he said that at no time during the entire 7 to 8 months period any fatigue or morale problems were noticed among the troops.

During the hour-long news conference, Padmanabhan said that twice the ``operations`` came very near to being launched first in the opening months of deployment and later again in autumn.

He said troops had been pulled out in summer from the international border but the deployment was in place in Jammu and Kashmir. Enhanced manpower was used to launch vigorous anti terrorist operations which yielded immense benefits, he said.

To questions to the deployment having been too long, the former army chief retorted that deployment was for bigger period of time in both the 1965 and 1971 wars. This time the difference was we came back without fighting a war``.

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#76 Posted by nazarhayatkhan on February 2, 2004 9:28:47 pm

When so many other countries have Bomb, why pick on Pakistan?

Because the state had projected a very dubious image of itself to the world community i.e.

- A lack of political stability.
- A proven track record of supporting religious extremists.
- All major decision making emanating from a small coterie of Army top brass.
- Using the nuclear blackmail - Kargil.
- Religious parties dreaming of Ummah.
- Intelligence Agencies running their own foreign & domest policies. (Present ISI boss is from our school - he is normal)

It has always been striking to every sane person in Pakistan that this Bomb will not be tolerated by the world in such circumstances & will create some problem one day.

If Musharraf had done at Agra what he did in Islamabad, we would have been in a better position to handle this crisis. Imagine if this crisis was there without the Islamabad Agreement. India would have put this issue on charcoal. Moral of the story - reduce your enemies! Maybe, recognition of Israel would have reduced its fall out.

I do not think making Khan & Company scapegoats will remove the world`s concern on Pakistan possession of the Bomb. It has to do more to satisfy the world.

Presently, Bomb is a genuine state requirement - defence, psychological, technological.

Where is the Parliament? Why Musharraf is still calling all the shots?

In all major fuxk ups, Army is involved - and the country suffers. This blame has to be squarely put on the Army`s shoulders.

I do not envy the job of Pakistani diplomats - Even I have begun to have a DEFENDING FATIGUE.
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#77 Posted by pmishra2 on February 2, 2004 9:28:47 pm
I see that tahmed32 has tired of explaining his theory that Amnesty International and Universal Suffrage all originate from 7th Century Islam. It is all there in the Koran, he has said (Why does this sound so familiar?).

He has now moved onto a new role: military strategist and analyst. Perhaps this is also all there in the Koran?

Anyway, while his pompous ramblings are certainly good for a few minutes of humor and entertainment, here is something a little more serious (sorry, not from the Koran).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6884-2004Feb2.html

Musharraf Named in Nuclear Probe
Senior Pakistani Army Officers Were Aware of Technology Transfers, Scientist Says
By John Lancaster and Kamran Khan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, February 3, 2004; Page A13


ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Feb. 2 -- Pakistan`s top nuclear scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, has told investigators that he helped North Korea design and equip facilities for making weapons-grade uranium with the knowledge of senior military commanders, including Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan`s president, according to a friend of Khan`s and a senior Pakistani investigator.




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#78 Posted by hossp on February 2, 2004 9:47:59 pm

#75 by AlephNull and #68 by veeresh

{{Incidentally, there is another school of thought that Pakistan`s nuclear might is and was about as genuine as Iraq`s WMDs. Any comments on this?}}

Come on! you boys are way smarter then this. If it so (as genuine as Iraq’s WMD) then what the hell is IAEA, CIA, and FIA are doing in Pakistan. Interrogating some toy makers? There are some conspiracy theories and then some more conspiracy theories, you beat them all.
If it wasn’t the case, the international community would have called the bluff a long time ago. No body wants a fool to be flashing a sword while talking with big boys.

I agree in essence that nukes are not much of a deterrent between India and Pakistan-One strike deal- and then both are going to pee in their pants.

The Indian army deployment was as stupid as they come. It was intended to have some deterrent effect and it did not work. Actually, the US called the Indian bluff.

If I were ever to count two huge mistakes by ABV in the last several years the Army deployment had to be way up there along with the Indian nukes tests.

The Indian nukes did nothing but destabilize the sub continent. It was good for perception, esteem and internal political gains but it allowed the area to become unstable and basically allowed Pakistanis to come out with some thing that was well wrapped by the US for some 13 or 14 years. The Indian explosion also gave encouragement to others to imitate Indian move.

The nuke proliferation issue is not Pakistani alone; India has to share as much blame. The only difference is that conceivably Indian scientists would not be making it merchandise for sell. Indian civil structure would not allow that.
The problem of proliferation exists in India too as the Indian command and control structure is relatively new and is not a mature model.
I think once Pakistan issue is settled-it is urgent because of Jihadi- the US and the International community will have to bear down on India to open its program and structure for some stringent inspections.

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#79 Posted by MantoLives on February 2, 2004 10:35:23 pm
MNIPhirsay,

You are making too many assumptions... I have had the opportunity of meeting this man on many occasions and listening to what he has to say. I can assure you that before I had met him I was in awe of him ... and after I met him I wasn`t so .

I admired him for his outspokeness and vision but slowly I realized that his interest is neither Pakistan nor Nuclear weapons but rather his personal ego... he has a score to settle with every one .... this impression is based on many one to one conversations with him at Najam Sethi`s functions in Lahore. I am no longer in awe of him.


As for your eloquent insults... I`d request you to hold your judgement on this 24 year old for a few years before you decide who is a lesser mortal... atleast I won`t sacrifice Pakistan for my personal ego.

May God save Pakistan from Dr. A Q Khans and Hoodbhoys.

-YLH
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#80 Posted by gujjubania on February 2, 2004 10:51:34 pm
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