The Constipated Faujiz

TA,

I agree with you 100%. Now go and practice what you preach....

AlephNull #230 Petty insults and specious arguments are no substitute for common sense and honesty.

Regards

Hossp #229

{{I think you need to go back to thread and read various posts by different people to follow why I asked this question.}}

Well, guess what, I was following this board closely from its very inception, watching the usual clowns proclaim national leader Musharraf the great hope of democracy in Pakistan, until a “seasoned political commentator” switched the discussion onto another track in #125/#131.

FWIW, I completely disagree with your contention in #146 that

{{The Indian explosion was bad, I agree with you. A serious error! It destabilized the whole region.}}

The question is – bad for whom? Most certainly, not for India. And the origins of regional instability do not lie with nuclear tests but with other factors. We can discuss this separately if you like.

I also find myself in complete disagreement with your #175, ‘Mind chunking”, etc. I do believe that the expositions that various other Indian posters provided for the motives behind India’s testing, were unsatisfactory. Nobody did a proper enumeration of the various causes and various effects.

{{The best thing would be for you to read your post #176 again as you forgot what you wrote.}}

Dude, do me a favour. Don’t, ever, project your infirmities onto me. You may perhaps habitually forget what you wrote yesterday. I don’t.

{{I was not comparing the two events as they happened on 5/98 and 911. There were two different circumstances and really there is no comparison between the two.}}

This is what you said in #177:

{{Despite the fact that 911 was much more important than nuke tests the US did not do any of those things so why would it would have done what you have speculated in your post at the time of nuke tests???}}

Is that not a comparison? Did it not try to locate 511 and 911 in a scale of comparative importance in order to claim that the US would not do the speculated actions after 511 since it didn’t do them after 911? Don’t insult my intelligence, and don’t waste my time.

FWIW, here is a fairly detailed, day-by-day, description, of the events in Pakistan between May 11th 1998 (India’s first three tests) and May 30th 1998 (Pakistan’s last claimed test series). It does mention some of the inducements that were offered to Pakistan by the US to not test (such as a repeal of Pressler and delivery of the embargoed F-16s).

From the Nuclear Weapons Archive: 1998: The year of Testing

Extract:

“Meanwhile the US worked on putting together an incentive package to Pakistan to persuade it not to test. The repeal of the Pressler amendment that cut off military aid was offered, as was delivery of $600 million dollars worth of F-16 fighter-bombers that Pakistan had ordered and paid for but never received. Discussions also began on how much aid to offer Pakistan on top of these concessions. The automatic imposition of a nearly complete embargo like that imposed on India, but which much smaller Pakistan could hardly afford, provided the penalty side of the equation.

But PM Sharif did not confirm the comments by Ayub, and by the beginning of the next week, Pakistan appeared to have backed off any immediate decision to test, and was content to see how much in aid the US might offer in return.”

#222 by fountainheader

{{{{{{Okay dude, about that quote from the Sheridan article, I was merely pointing out that such a point of view does exist in places other than India. I should have added a disclaimer that ``gaurav does not endorse the opinion fully``. :)}}}}

Gaurav!! It is good that I have known you for sometime now. I set a little trap for you and you wiggle away. I will get you again some other time. :-)

“Okay, what exactly are you talking about here? Only the 1998 blasts?”-Gaurav

Yes! The whole conversation is about 1998 blast. See here is the problem. The Indian nuke program is not under review here. We will need another thread to do that. The objectives of the Indian blast became a side issue here and it would be best to keep it that way or it will meander into a monster.

“China factor - Nahh, not 1998 specifically. But 1974” -Gaurav

your own answer here.

“But in my opinion, the specific dates were chosen because of domestic compulsions.”-Gaurav

So it was not china factor and I will take your word that it was scientific factor but it never was a trap for Pakistan to be sucked into sanctions as claimed by some of Indians on this thread.

tahmad and I challenged that.
See my post to OneNull guy too.

Once you say that then the story ends here so tell me more about Lucknow.

tahmad!! This is west coast here. Nice sunny day. I guess you are still enduring the East Coast. Feel sorry for you!!! I got tired of Wash, DC a long time ago.

Just saw this:

Tahmed #181

{{I diligently dug out your ``simple answer`` which seems to be as follows: Indian scientists felt the need to test their weapons.

I am afraid this is not plausible for the following reasons: (a) There does not seem any scientific reason to test 5 weapons, when one weapon at a time would make seem more sensible AND consistent with ``industry`` practice in terms of tests by other nations …}}

Here we go again. True to long-standing form, this savant has absolutely no clue, has not done any research or the most cursory homework, has jumped to incorrect conclusions, and now pompously mouths off about ‘“industry” practice in terms of tests by other nations’.

A quick glance at the Nuclear Weapon Archive will show that Sahib doesn’t know what he is talking about. It can be confirmed via a trip to any university library in the US. I especially recommend the late Chuck Hansen’s “Secret History of US Nuclear Weapons”.

Far from not being industry practice, multiple simultaneous nuclear explosions, officially denoted as a single test with multiple detonations, were common practice for underground tests conducted by the US and especially the USSR. The US officially admits to conducting a total of 1054 tests, involving 1149 separate detonations. The USSR conducted 715 tests (496 underground) involving 969 detonations [see Soviet Nuclear Test Summary]. A quick calculation will show that the USSR was performing on the average 1.5 detonations per underground test. The Chinese are also known to have detonated multiple devices in the course of a single test, see for instance:

“According to Japanese government sources (reported in Nihon Keizai Shimbun), the penultimate underground Chinese nuclear test on 8 June 1996 (calculated at 20 to 80 kilotons) was actually a simultaneous detonation of multiple warheads (a common practice by both the U.S. and USSR).”

There are some technical and logistical reasons for performing underground tests simultaneously. First, combining tests allows the tester to prevent separate estimation of the yields of the individual detonations by seismic measurements at remote locations. Second, if multiple tests have to be conducted in close temporal proximity, it makes sense to perform them in a single small area to minimize the contaminated area. It also minimizes the amount of transport of earthmoving/excavating equipment needed, especially in a desert area. However, the shock wave/ground disturbance from one test might then damage the shaft, destroy the seal, or dislocate the control cabling for a neighbouring test with device already emplaced. Simultaneous tests prevent these problems; all detonations are completed before the shock wave from any one device reaches the others.

Naturally, none of this easily available information will make the slightest impression on our ‘seasoned political commentator’ and his pompous pronouncements.

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AlephNull!

The whole issue of comparison came up with regards to the unspecified promised goodies In response to your contentions in post #176 that Pakistan could have gotten the world and all I was saying it would not have and you’re merely speculating and financial incentives from the US or Japan were not enough to deter Pakistan from not responding to India.

So here is the equation:

Your contention: 5/98 Pak promised goodies for not testing—as in post 176 -pasted below-

My contention: it was speculation and not a viable expectation-proven later on. That’s all there is to it and you are making a mountain out of a mole-hole.

I was not comparing the two events as they happened on 5/98 and 911. There were two different circumstances and really there is no comparison between the two. The best thing would be for you to read your post #176 again as you forgot what you wrote. The rest of your post#220 is meaningless as you`re taking fancy in comparing the time period between 5/98 and 911 and that is a non issue on this thread.

Alphnull #220 “while 911 might have been far more important to the US than 511, Pakistan’s bargaining position post 911 was far far weaker than it was post 511. Thus Pakistan’s failure to extract concessions post 911 does not establish that the same concessions could not have been successfully extracted post 511.”

This is whole another issue. May be we need to open another thread to determine your perception and my discernment of two situation and Pakistan’s weaknesses etc. That is an all new ballgame.

I was not comparing the two events thus there ware no flaws in my method. You are imagining things!!!


Here is your own post 176 –

[{Here’s what the US could do to help Pakistan’s economy in exchange for Pakistan not testing:
(1) Provide massive cash grants, of the order of billions of dollars, to Pakistan.
(2) Pay off all, or a large fraction of, Pakistan’s sovereign debt.
(3) Massively increase textile import quotas from Pakistan (I’m speculating here – don’t know all the details, but I hope you get the point). Provide material aid in other forms. Etc. etc.
You further claim in post 176

In addition, the US could have agreed to deliver those 28 embargoed F-16s and provided another five squadrons worth of a far more modern mark – Block 50/52, say. Other military goodies could also have been provided.]]


#221 by AlephNull on February 21, 2004 6:55am PT
Hossp #177

{{So, I will go back to my original question: What exactly Indian planners had in mind when they supposedly suckered Pakistan into testing and sanctions?}}

I think you need to go back to thread and read various posts by different people to follow why I asked this question. You sure don’t want me to copy all those posts here.

hossp #226 Working in the backyard. And at this time ungodly time in the middle of winter!! When you could be solving important issues on chowk like the security balance in south asia!! Anyway, hope you are still able to find your way around Home Depot, given that everything is in spanish now.

Gaurav!!

Bankay is really king`s Urdu but I did not write `chehalay` correctly. It is similar to Bankay. It is hard to write the word in English. I think Bankay and Chehlay have similar meaning

Have you heard this

“Gaurav! Aaj tu bara Bankay lug raha ho!! Aaj to balloon(hair) mian tail(oil) dala hai kiya!!!.(Did you put some oil in your hair too?) Kehan hain tumahari chahmak chahloo!!!!!

Pune!!!A Marathi babu trying to learn urdu! Get lost!!!!

#221 by AlephNull

Too early on this Saturday morning to deal with you. Wifey wants me to go Home depot and work in the back yard!!!

Will try to respond to your posts as soon as possible same to you Gaurav!!!

fountainheader #217 I believe ``bankay`` means ``dandy`` (a slightly old-fashioned term for a fashionably dressed fella). I heard a fellow from UP use it in government college lahore many years ago when he said to one of the over-dressed fellows in the college: ``Wah sahib. Aaj to aap Lucknow kay bankay ban gai!``, or something like that.

Since you are our ``chowk man on the spot`` in Lucknow, it would be interesting if you got the chance to check if anyone still remembers the term (and chohlay too, while you are at it). I assume it is from the time that Lucknow kay bankay used to fly kites, raise pigeon, patronize dancing and music. Any light you can shed on this matter would be appreciated.

hossp #215 I am not sure how a french bathroom would differ from a regular one - the ones I recall most clearly are in a hotel i once stayed at in paris. The bathroom was so small you had walls touching each arm when taking a shower.

I assume the kothas at faizabad from umrao jan`s days are no longer places of song and dance anymore. Too bad.

#198 Hossp

Okay dude, about that quote from the Sheridan article, I was merely pointing out that such a point of view does exist in places other than India. I should have added a disclaimer that ``gaurav does not endorse the opinion fully``. :)

It seems to me that you are trying to justify nuke explosion by India on some rational ground instead of BS from other Indians poster that are coming up with the: China factor, Window closing and or scientific needs as none of them have any strategic value.

Okay, what exactly are you talking about here? Only the 1998 blasts? I look at it from 1974 onwards. My contention is that India`s nuke program was started in the late 60s, because China, which we had gone to war with just 6 years previously, had just tested one. In 2004, almost half a century after the `62 war, it might seem `BS` to say that india`s nukes were China specific. But cast your mind back to the 60s and 70s and you will understand.

Qn for you - Do you think India`s fears about China, in the 60s and 70s, were unfounded, and the nuke program was ill-advised?

So anyway, once the `74 tests were conducted, india was on path to have a nuclear arsenal.

Now tests were being planned for a long time. They did not just come out of nowhere. India`s nuclear program has largely built from the ground up, and so testing was necessary. Everyone(except Pakistan) accepts that India`s nukes are almost entirely indigenous. Basically the fact that there was talk in the media of nuclear tests throughout the time that I was growing up (late 80s and whole of 90s), convinces me that the Indian nuclear program did need to conduct tests for gathering data.

After all, even China conducted tests in the 90s, right? Were they for scientific purposes or flexing muscles?

Now coming more specifically to the question - Why did the vajapyee government conduct tests in May 1998?,

China factor - Nahh, not 1998 specifically. But 1974, yes, very much China.
Scientific needs - Yes, or we would not have had news of impending tests for a decade. And yes, after some initial skepticism in the West, there is a general consensus that india did test a thermonuclear device (Hydrogen Bomb). Considering that India`s nuclear arsenal is not a purchased one, don`t you think an H-bomb would require testing?
Window closing - If you accept scientific reasons as valid, then window closing follows.

But in my opinion, the specific dates were chosen because of domestic compulsions. Jaylalitha, then a part of the coalition was making a lot of noises and threatening to bring down the government. These tests shut her up, because there was a sense of achievement in the country after the N-tests...(India Mushrooming? ;)). But not for good. She did pull the plug a year later.

The points that I disagree with are -

1. India, by conducting the tests, somehow did a big favour on Pakistan. Advani, by provoking Sharif to test, helped Pakistan achieve ``parity``.
2. India was hurt by the tests.

However I don`t think you are making these points. It was tahmed and we have ``agreed to disagree``.

Hossp and tahmed

Lucknowi chahla and bankay? :-S

I am nearing the end of my 2 year stay in Lucknow and I have never heard of chahla or bankay. I originally hail from Pune. Could you two, using the queen`s language, explain to me what those two words mean? sirf 10 din bache hain Lucknow mein. Aazma liye jaen. :)

hossp #215

What amazed me then was that all the buildings all over India were so old and most of the houses were still on French type kutacha bathrooms and that was hilarious.

Ah, so you didn`t know `squat` about Indian bathrooms. ;-)

Hossp #177

{{Now you are getting into the realm of speculations.}}

That is inherent in this situation. One tree of possible futures was closed off forever when Pakistan was forced to test. If you don’t want to hear hypotheticals, don’t ask questions whose answers demand discussing hypotheticals.

{{did the Indian Planners know that US would offer Pakistan the world, if Pakistan did not test????}}

Everyone tries to bargain for the best possible deal – drive up the price for what he has to sell. Pakistan has done it successfully in the past. Remember Zia’s contemptuous ‘peanuts’ when Carter came knocking in 1979 with an offer of A-4 Skyhawks? It’s quite reasonable to expect that the Pakistani government would try to ask the world in exchange for not testing - basically, a restoration to the status of Uncle Sam’s keep, which they enjoyed during various periods in the past, most recently in the Zia decade, until they were cruelly cast off at the end of the Cold War.

Some of the things that Pakistan might ask for – such as membership in a ‘extended NATO’, as a ‘seasoned political commentator’ still fondly dreams of in #166 – would be very unlikely to be agreed to by the US. The US could certainly have granted other favours at little cost to itself, such as a release of those F-16s, debt reductions and preferential import quotas. All these would increase Pakistan’s freedom in pursuing its campaign against India and hence would be very bad from the Indian POV.

Incidentally, the US is not the only country that could have helped Pakistan with money. Japan, for one, would have been forthcoming as well. They combine an understandable dislike for nuclear weapons with a desire to limit India’s influence in Asia.

{{The US and other countries did promise Pakistan a lot but promises are promises and there are many a slips between a cup and the lips.}}

Pakistani regimes have proved quite adept at extracting goodies in the past – see Zia, for instance. Why would they not try it again, and even succeed, if their options were not curtailed?