Pakistan: Inside The Nuclear Closet

Prof Hoodbhoy
That for many years Pakistani institutions have engaged in proliferation of technology for nuclear weapons under the noses of the US, that is a issue for outrage for some. That there was/is a nuclear blackmarket in which not just Pakistanis, but individuals from all over the world are active and the world appears to reproach only Pakistani individuals and institutions - that is a source of outrage for some others.

But IMO, many including yourself are missing the real issue. A large part of transfer of technology took place in the same period that the Pakistani establishment was actively attempting to extend the Taliban experiment to other regions in Central Asia, including Kashmir, at a time when people like Aslam Beg and Hamid Gul were in ascendant. I

t took place at a time when control over Central Asian republics, breaking up of India, destruction of Israel etc via Islamist ideology and military conquest was professedly the grandiose national vision. In that context, for Pakistanis to be allying with organisations such as Al Qaeda or with Muslim countries hostile to Israel or the US was a matter of making common cause towards these national goals.

So, the question now is, did proliferation really result from mere greed and corruption of a few individuals or did it take place under auspices of the above-mentioned vision?

Have all elements of the Pakistani establishment really abandoned the vision of extending the armed Islamist enterprise into other countries via jihad and the nuclear bum? If they have indeed given up their vision, how much have those who have not, such as Al Qaeda and others, already benefitted via their connection with the Pakistani establishment?

Simply because Musharraf professes `moderation` from every podium and another individual AQ Khan apologized on TV, the US appears to think this should serve as sufficient evidence for the world that all is clear within the Pakistani establishment on this count. Is it indeed so or is the Pakistani establishment being expedient too? And what is Pakistani public opinion on this either way?

Folks,

The saga of the arrogant Abdul Xerox Khan is not over. If you all will notice, the US did not utter a word at the drama that was played out on TV. They just let it be known via underlings that the ``administration`` is pleased at the steps taken. Their official reponse will of course depend upon the public opinion back home. That I am afraid is becoming worse by the day. Pakistan`s image is taking a serious beating in the eyes of the American public.

The Americans are clearly biding their time. By keeping quiet, they are extracting their pound of flesh right now. Pakistan is being made to make another U-turn as we speak. This time it appears -- based on the headlines -- that they have not only decided to raid the FATA and clean it out, but also have apperently allowed the Americans to send in a huge force to hunt Osama and party there. Catching Osama is the TOP PRIORITY for them. We all know about the Nov 2004 deadline. Once Osama is caught, I think AXK turn will come...

The US provided such solid evidence on AXK that Mushy was forced to act on a ``Herrow`` of Pakistan. One wonders for how long they had this evidence and if they had it for some time, then why did they choose this particular time to leak it? Makes you wonder what else they have up their sleeve right? It appears what they revealed was enough for another of Mushy`s famous U-Turns. Maybe it is time for Mushy to think strategically for a change and fix the other burning problem at hand -- Kashmir -- without someone squeezing his proverbial testimonials eh?

Also, Mushy, -- ``The tactical genius`` -- by IMMEDIATELY pardoning AXK, not only cheapened the value of himself and that of a ``Presidential Pardon``, but also may have signed Khan`s death warrant. I have a strong feeling that Mr AXK will not die a natural death. I do hope AXK and his family have the wherwithal to survive the wrath of the ISI and the CIA. I wonder what is on the secret tapes AXK allegdedly smuggled out of Pakistan.

I wish Pakistan had the sense to not let Osama get into FATA in the first place and not let this get to this stage. They would not only have reaped a much bigger reward for the eventual capture of Osama, but kept many of their national secrets ``intact``. Now these U-turns and the capture of Osama could lead to a ``confrontation`` at the best and a civil war at the worst between the islamists and the ``others`` in Pakistan. Being an Indian, I have to tell you that neither is in the best interests of the people of India in general and the Indian Muslims in particular.

However, as they say, every dark cloud has a silver lining, accordingly, there is one good thing to come out of this as far as India is concerned, I will leave it your imagination to figure out what that is...

from `Eat the State.` Feb 2004



The Real WMD Threat: Pakistan

by Maria Tomchick


George Bush`s solution to the Iraq intelligence scandal--a new ``bipartisan`` investigative panel, whose members, appointed by Bush, are neocons and Democratic pro-war hawks--will probably be a whitewash, but the panel is serving a useful purpose for the Bush administration: it`s distracting the media and the public from hearing the details about the worst case in modern history of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has, in recent weeks, uncovered the shocking revelation that Pakistan, the US` long-time ally, has sold nuclear technology and equipment to Libya, North Korea, and Iran. General Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani President, has been quick to blame the head scientist in Pakistan`s nuclear weapons program, Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, as a lone agent selling information for personal gain. But the truth is far more disturbing.

Pakistan`s trade in secret weapons technology has been going on since at least the 1980s. Pakistani and British newspapers have listed some of the details, including former Prime Minister Benazir Butto`s trip to North Korea in 1994, where she traded nuclear weapons blueprints for medium-range missile technology at the request of the Pakistani army chief of staff. WMD experts and Pakistani political analysts say that the Pakistani military, which has effectively run the country since independence, has always kept tight control over the facilities where Dr. Khan worked and would`ve had knowledge of his activities, if not actually signed off on them. News has leaked that nuclear centrifuges were shipped to Libya on Pakistani military cargo planes.

Dr. Khan, for his part, confessed last week that three consecutive chiefs of staff of the Pakistani army were involved in approving the trade in nuclear weapons technology with North Korea. This includes Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan`s current president. In a move to silence Khan, Musharraf asked him to sign a confession--under duress, according to Khan`s family and opposition politicians--and then Musharraf pardoned Khan from prosecution. A trial would bring out the dirty details and expose the full extent of Pakistani government and military complicity in arming its trading partners in violation of international treaties.

Has George Bush called for the removal of Gen. Musharraf from power in Pakistan? Has he called him a grave and impending threat to international security? Of course not. Musharraf is perceived as the only bastion against a growing Islamic fundamentalist movement in Pakistan. As a secular government, albeit one with an atrocious human rights record, Pakistan is deemed a valuable ally in fighting the resurgent Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan, in spite of the Pakistani military`s history of having fostered the Taliban, and current suspicions that it could be doing more to clamp down on them now. The Pakistani military`s bloody record in suppressing the Kashmiri separatist movement argues for a capability that it hasn`t shown regarding Taliban recruiters who now have free run of Pakistani border towns and villages.

None of this serves as an adequate excuse for allowing Pakistan to sell proscribed and highly dangerous technology. The Reagan administration knew that Pakistan was building a nuclear weapon in the early 1980s, as a secret State Department briefing memo date June 23, 1983, can attest. The Clinton administration slapped sanctions on Pakistan when it tested its first nuclear bomb in May 1998, and US intelligence analysts have known for some time that Pakistan`s medium-range missiles are based on North Korean technology. As recently as late 2002 and early 2003, US officials confronted Pakistan with evidence that North Korean nuclear technology was based on Pakistani designs.

But instead of declaring a war against the real purveyor of WMD, the Bush administration lifted sanctions against Pakistan in 2002, in the hopes of using Pakistan as a base to stage the war against Afghanistan. The Bush administration then went on to give the Pakistani government millions in US taxpayer funds: $375 million in 2003, and the current budget for the 2004-5 fiscal year would increase that amount to a staggering $700 million.

To reward a nation that`s done more than any other to arm Bush`s ``Axis of Evil`` highlights the enormous hypocrisy of George W. Bush`s entire foreign policy and makes a complete lie of Bush`s program of preemptive war. It reveals that the Bush administration could care less about WMD and international security. The new panel Bush has appointed should not examine US intelligence services--they`ve been doing their job quite adequately in regards to Pakistan, the real WMD threat--but the Bush administration`s terrible mismanagement and misuse of the United States` whole foreign policy apparatus.


Sources for this article: ``Musharraf knew I was selling secrets, says nuclear scientist,`` James Astill, The Guardian, 2/4/04, http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,4850959-103595,00.html

``Musharraf named in Nuclear Probe,`` John Lancaster and Kamran Khan, Washington Post, 2/3/04, p. A13, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A6884-2004Feb2?language=printer

``Dr. Qadeer `forced` to give statement,`` The Dawn (Pakistan), 2/6/04, http://www.dawn.com/2004/02/06/nat9.htm

``Pakistan`s Nuclear Crimes,`` WP, 2/5/04, p. A20, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A14272-2004Feb4?language=printer

``Pakistan Caught in a Web of Evidence,`` Douglas Frantz, Paul Watson, and Mubashir Zaidi, Los Angeles Times,`` 2/3/04

``ARD planning to launch remove-Musharraf drive,`` The Dawn, 2/6/04, http://www.dawn.com/2004/02/06/nat2.htm

``After the apology,`` The Dawn, 2/6/04, http://www.dawn.com/2004/02/06/ed.htm

``$700 million US funding likely,`` The Dawn, 2/5/04, http://www.dawn.com/2004/02/05/top12.htm

``Pakistanis Question Official Ignorance of Atom Transfers,`` David Rohde, New York Times, 2/3/04

``UN nuclear watchdog to persist in inquiry despite Pakistani refusals,`` Agence France Presse, 2/6/04.

In fact, this is a well put together article.

But there are many take home questions at the end...
- Is there any character of the nation?
- Is it an occasional oversight or prevalent tradition to make heroes out of ordinary men in the one go and then declare them evil genius in the next one ?
- How are heroes even decalared heroes ?
- The last guy that I have heard of as an evil genuis was Bhutto. I still have not comprehended why was he both an evil as well as a genuis.
- I do not think that we should have any universities teaching sciences or technology to anyone. We should convert them into learning institutes, assisting the nation top down and bottom up, in building some character. That`s the need of the day!

mohar,

.......... i think gorillas with razors are more dangerous than monkeys ...........

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Prof. Hoodbhoy: Please stop writing articles on chowk. You are giving diarrhea to our local population of monkeys and gorillas. Poor Naqshbandi hasnt eaten in two days, he is so upset. And wait till our African howling monkey to show up...

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#21 by hamidm2
//.......... i think gorillas with razors are more dangerous than monkeys ........... //

Of Course :) But then, who will tell the Gorilla?

According to reports - US was supposed to have traded uranium-related stuff to some 40+ other countries. And it was China who was the original proliferator - transferred some old nuke tech to Pakis back in 60`s or something. But nobody is pointing fingers at them. That`s the advantage of being a Gorilla, I guess.

So - if you are small guy then you shouldn`t play the big guys` game. If you do - you should know your place and step gingerly. If you found a razor - then keep it sheathed. You don`t go around flaunting it ..... you don`t threaten everybody around or pass copies of it to other lunatics. If you do - well, we now know what happens. You loose.

Pakistan lost the nukes. Good riddance.

tahmed

---

better a monkey or gorilla with honour, ghayrat and IMAN then a heretic like you...

From Dawn (Karachi) Monday March 8, 2004


Proliferation in perspective

By Mansoor Alam


The strong reaction caused in Pakistan to the news that Dr Qadeer and some other of our nuclear scientists were under investigation on suspicion of exporting nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea for personal gains was natural.

After all Pakistan`s nuclear programme unlike those of India and Israel was not for hegemonic purposes but to protect its territorial integrity and national independence against a powerful enemy.

The ``peaceful nuclear explosion`` conducted by India in 1974 had happened too soon after its military intervention in East Pakistan and was seen by the Pakistanis as a message either to submit to its domination or face the consequences.

It was, therefore, not surprising that the entire Pakistani nation stood solidly behind Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto`s declaration that we would have the bomb even if it meant eating grass.

Consequently, when Dr Qadeer succeeded in making the bomb in 1984, he became a hero for Pakistanis. Giving Pakistan nuclear capability in the teeth of international opposition led by the US was no less than a miracle and in doing so he had provided to the nation a sense of security and national pride that it had lost in 1971. This made him a figure larger than life. The people and the government put him on a high pedestal next only to the Quaid-i-Azam.

It was in this backdrop that the media broke the news that Dr Qadeer and some of our nuclear scientists and engineers were being interrogated on suspicion of having supplied nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and even North Korea. Pakistanis` first reaction was to reject it as false and US instigated with the ulterior motive to dismantle our nuclear programme, an old US objective.

Dr Kissinger had warned Mr. Bhutto that the US would make a horrible example of Pakistan if it tried to acquire the nuclear weapons. Subsequently, when Pakistan acquired the nuclear capability, the US Congress passed Pakistan specific Symington and Pressler laws for immediate application of sanctions in case Pakistan made the bomb.

During the war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan the US looked the other way and refrained from applying these laws, but President Bush senior did so as soon as the Soviet troops had left Afghanistan. Once again, as in 1965, the Pakistanis thought that the US was a selfish and unreliable ally.

Not only that, the US had also created a general impression among the Muslims all over the world that besides its perennial anti-Palestinian attitude and lack of sympathy for other issues of concern to the Muslims such as Kashmir, it did not want any Islamic country to acquire nuclear capability, the so-called ``Islamic Bomb``.

On the other hand, it had helped Israel in making the bomb and supported Israel`s blatant attack on the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, which was then given highly adulatory coverage by the US media.

Most Muslims saw these as another evidence of US double standard and hostility towards Islam itself. The US attack on Iraq on ``sexed up`` WMD charges transformed their belief into conviction that the US agenda was to subjugate the Muslim world, appropriate its natural resources and perpetuate the Israeli hegemony in the region.

The revelation about Dr Qadeer, therefore, created strong suspicion among the Pakistanis that it was a US engineered plot to finish the Pakistani bomb. President Musharraf`s political opponents, particularly the supporters of the Taliban, for political reasons or out of respect for Dr Qadeer, spread the feeling that he had succumbed to American pressure.

The nation itself could not believe that Dr Qadeer had proliferated without the knowledge and approval of the generals who seem to have been in full control over KRL. Their natural conclusion was that President Musharraf was trying to protect his fellow generals.

Public support for Dr Qadeer was so strong that even when he admitted his guilt on the TV, Pakistanis thought that he had done so under duress or as an act of supreme sacrifice to save the country.

It never occurred to them that Dr Qadeer was human and could have used the same secret network he had established for Pakistan to supply the technology to others for personal gains. And even if Pakistan was involved, they should have kept quite out of respect for Dr Qadeer rather than place the country in a difficult situation.

It also did not occur to them that Dr Qadeer was a greater hero to the armed forces of Pakistan than ordinary Pakistanis because he had given to them a capability that had neutralized the Indian military superiority over them.

Therefore, President Musharraf could not have touched Dr Qadeer without the risk of a mutiny if there was not enough proof against him.

Nevertheless, a strong belief persists both at home and abroad that he could not have proliferated without the knowledge, if not the approval, of the generals. The allegations made against an ex-army chief in this respect by former US officials and a former member of Mr. Nawaz Sharif`s kitchen cabinet has only strengthened the suspicion against them despite the denial by the COAS concerned.

Under the circumstances it would have been better for the country and the army if President Musharraf had constituted an independent rather than an in-house enquiry, albeit in camera, led by a senior judge to remove all doubts about the involvement of armed forces personnel and to fix the responsibility for such a major security lapse.

It is still not too late to do that to clear the clouds of suspicion hanging over the generals and the president himself that he was protecting them. All democratic countries follow this course in matters of grave national concern as manifested by the Hutton enquiry in the death of Dr Kelly in the UK and the congressional enquiry now instituted by President Bush on the failure of the US intelligence in regard to the presence of the WMDs in Iraq.

Internationally serious questions are being raised about our ability to check proliferation. The American media thinks that the saga of Dr Qadeer is nothing but an attempt to cover up and proves ``Washington`s worst nightmare of nuclear weapons passing to the rogue states`` through Pakistan.

Many well-informed Pakistani columnists believe that it would be naive on our part to think that by putting all the blame on Dr Qadeer we could escape the day of reckoning.

We had handed over a ``loaded revolver to Washington which can be used against us at any time of their choosing``. We could now be declared an international pariah and might soon have to face the choice of either opening our nuclear facilities to intrusive inspection or face Iraq-like sanctions.

Although the US has been most vocal on the issue of proliferation the fact is that all other major powers, including China, share this concern. As stated by the French Foreign Minister during his recent visit to Islamabad, France and its partners want Pakistan to strengthen its nuclear export control, observe greater transparency of nuclear activities in close cooperation with the IAEA and participate in global non-proliferation within the framework of the UNSC resolution now being prepared.

All this indicates that Pakistan will have to create a watertight system of control over its nuclear facility or face the collective wrath of the international community. However the present lapse resulting from Dr Qadeer`s actions does not pose an unmanageable threat, as some analyst seem to think.

Firstly, the government has taken the right decision to question Dr Qadeer and others and admit that they had indulged in unauthorized proliferation. The Americans and the IAEA had too much proof obtained from Libya, Iran and other sources against them for a credible denial by us.

Secondly, it did the right thing in actively cooperating with the effort to dismantle the network within and outside Pakistan and assure the world that it had established a foolproof system of control.

Thirdly, individuals and enterprises mostly in the West were also involved and knew fully well what they were doing. However, governments of these countries are not being held responsible for their misdeeds.

Fourthly, since President Bush and Secretary Colin Powell have not accused Pakistan of proliferating officially and issued the requisite certification for the proposed grant of $700 million to Pakistan by Congress they cannot use the present episode to bring a charge later.

Nevertheless, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the Americans if it suits their interest in future may demand the dismantling of Pakistan`s nuclear capability, but they will have to use the doctrine of pre-emption and unilateral action rather than the present case of proliferation.

In that event our only protection will lie in the deterrence that Dr Qadeer has provided to the country. That is why Pakistanis regard him as a hero. Only if he had not done what he did, he would have not become a fallen hero, which is our deepest regret.

The writer is a former Ambassador.

E-mail: manalam@hotmail.com.

Naqsh #22 Ha! Ha! The ManWorshipper dares to speak!!

Here starteth the Prophecy

On the Second Day, there was the Pressed Conference, wherein spoke the King. The tasks of aggrandisement were completed, the great foresight of the ruler explained, the Heroic Father of the Bomb diminished forever, the nation asked to forgive and forget, and forgiveth and forgeth, the nation did, simply because there was no other choice.

On the third day, the people forgot, bigger problems appeared on our horizon, it appeared that the Chicken population had a flu, could it be a cover up, all those chicken tikkas and Chicken Biryanis stopped. The nation could not forgive and Forget. But it had no choice, and cows could be seen all over the country crying thick tears as the nearby chicken were seen chuckling to their end.

On the Fourth Day, the nation sleeps. The Bombs are locked up, the King Moves to Isloo. And the Imperialist forces too busy (Iraq, Afghanistan(for those afghanis who still havent got a Pakistani passport), Haiti etc) to worry about the small problem of Nuclear Proliferation by a client state that fullfill its current needs.

Therein lives the ghost of the Nuclear Future. In time the Neo Cons will find time to disarm the only Muslim Nation with a Full on Nuclear Program(read kerry on Pakistan). There will be debate, harsh words and then Preemption.

Here endeth the prophecy

wajahat #28 I think time has shown that what I predicted (on which we once crossed swords) is coming true: I had supported the Iraq war since, regardless of everything else, I had said it would result in the removal of an evil dictator (Saddam), and (given the past record of the US in introducing democracies in places it occupied - Japan, Germany) it most likely would introduce democracy for the first time ever in Iraq as well.

So, Saddam has been removed (and is going to be brought to trial for his cruel deeds in due course), and today the Iraqis did something unheard of in that country - they achieved a political compromise and signed their new constitution into law.

Of course they hypocrites of the muslim world will detract from this great step forward from their animal pat for the Iraqis by claiming that the signers were not elected via one man one vote. The truth nevertheless is that the signers represent the broad segments of Iraqi society - and the concept of political compromise (an alien concept to the cretins of the muslim world, but which lies at the heart of a democratic society) has been implemented in Iraq.

As for those nukes - only the cretins of the muslim world and of India think that copying 60 year old technology is a great achievement.

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