Lengthening Shadows of Iraq War

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Return of sadam,

There is imncreasing evidence that sadam is once again running iraq. Iraquis are being tortured in the same prison that sadam used, and even the instruments appear to be the same. Senior sadam ganerals are moving into falluja.
Then of course, the US soldiers are going to be prosecuted for war crimes. It may be time to remind about vietnam and american trial for war crimes, Leitanant Calley of Mai Lai massacre spent a very long prison term of TWO, I reapeat two, years for war crimes.

One should not forget the free world sense of crime and punishment

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re malik99 #41:

``No sir, all i am saying is that `rise in productivity` is not a true indicator of an expanding economy.``

Beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. As big as the US economy is, it is commendable that it is still expanding. A rise in productivity is definitely one of the indicators though it may not give the complete picture.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are undercapitalized, I agree. However they are in no danger of collapsing. Quiet moves are afoot to shore up their capital base. You`ll hear about them very soon. Keep in mind financial institutions have razor thin equity on their balance sheets. I doubt if Goldman or Merrill has more than 5%. That is why the assets and liabilities have to be closely matched. Things go out of whack when there is too much volatility in the markets. But the flip side is that more profits are generated when there is more volatility. As quasi-govt. agencies, fannie and freddie need to stop trying to make more money for their shareholders and hedge their balance sheet more strictly. Things are moving in that direction.

``The US economy is in much worse shape than is generally believed by the american public.``

This can lead to a whole new debate. However, I believe that American economy is on the upswing and things are looking up. Remember it takes two to make a market.

later
-sac

sac # 40 - you wrote ``What`s the alternative? Instituting 35 hour work weeks? ``

No sir, all i am saying is that `rise in productivity` is not a true indicator of an expanding economy.

Your observation about China / Japan supporting US (and their) economy by buying US bonds is correct. However, let me state my observation: The US economy is in much worse shape than is generally believed by the american public. If you are following the fine print in Wall Street Journal, you would notice that sometimes burried deep in its pages is occasionally a news about `reforms` at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If you understand the criticality of these two instituitions, you will understand the devastating consquences the collapse of one of these two will have on US economy . The `reforms` are really being undertaken becuase there is a nervousness among economists and technocrats that these two instituitions are vulnerable. Remember the near collapse a few years ago of LTC (long term capital) which had to be saved by the intervention of US government? Well, Freddie and Fannie are more than 100 times the size of that.

- Z

re malik99 #38:

States can balance their budgets two ways. By asking the federal govt. for help or by cutting spending. You are right that most often they opt for the latter. Your observations are correct but the lessons you draw are not. States have been perpetually beset by revenue problems. Even during the roaring 90s many states were crying about declining revenues. It is a manifestation of lack of controls and management of govt. spending, not a reflection of a weakening economy.

````rise in productivity`` is a misleading indicator of economic recovery. It could very well mean that companies are squeezing more work out of a smaller work force. People may be working longer hours so as to keep their jobs.``

What`s the alternative? Instituting 35 hour work weeks?

I am sure your admiration for Mr. Krugman is not misplaced. But its probably a better bet to listen to people like Robert Rubin who`ve been bloodied in the trading pits of Wall St. than Lawrence Summers and Co. who can expound at length on the intricacies of Laffer`s curve but would have a hard time figuring out a put from a call. Academics have a tendency to paint a very convincing picture using facts and figures. They are on unsure ground when there are external linkages to the phenomena they are trying to explain that cannot be incorporated into their models.

Forget about Europe. It will take decades to set itself straight. China and Japan are more interesting but would need to open up to the outside world with greater transparency to get anywhere. In the meantime they`ll keep buying US bonds, keep their currencies artificially low to help their exports and let Uncle Sam fight all the necessary evil wars.

later
-sac

I had written an article on the Iraq war, before it started, predicting the mess that would occur. Just out of curiosity, I went back to see how the general Chowk view on the war turned out, in retrospect, from the comments in the replies section. I was surprised to see that most of the repliers had made a correct prediction, of US intentions, desires, and results of the war. The only exceptions I could find were the following”

Arjun_m:

“All these gloom and doom predictions will be a thing of the past one the US does go to war..”

tahmad:

“So, maybe you need to sharpen your arguments a bit, dont you think??”

hari:

“but the final outcome is always going to be good for the Iraqi people if the US were to declare Iraq as the 51st state.

Let us face it. Many citizens of many countries long for US ``invasion``of their countries and many of them already do without realizing it.”

So the Chowk crowd showed more foresight on this issue, than most of the US pundits........

sac # 29 - Yuo wrote ``Mr. Krugman is an academic and worse still an Economist. His musings should be taken with a grain of salt.``

and why exactly that makes him less credible?

Indeed you are correct that by law the states HAVE to balance their budgets. And they will. But where will the money come from? My initial argument that ALL 50 states are currently in red in correct. However, the states, in the absence of money, will balance their budgets by taking money away from social / education programs. Already the states are screaming that they don`t have enough money to implement the new security measures that federal government is mandating.

``rise in productivity`` is a misleading indicator of economic recovery. It could very well mean that companies are squeezing more work out of a smaller work force. People may be working longer hours so as to keep their jobs.

As for your europe and china argument, please read my post # 12. I argued in that post that UNTIL China and Europe become the economic powerhouse ``the world needs US to be economically strong`` for the world to itself prosper economically.

- Z

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Salaam Alaikum!

Hamidm2, my friend...

Iraq was neither a threat to his neighbors nor the world. Saddam functioned under two ``No Fly Zones``--he couldn`t even have antagonized the Kurds to the north. Every single time Saddam challeged the ``No Fly Zones`` he got pounded for it. Again, what threat did he pose?

Tell me this, when Saddam sent those scuds to Israel during the first Gulf War, why didn`t he send nukes on those warheads? Perfect time to take out those ole ``Yahoods``, right? Easy answer. Saddam enjoyed his control and power. Abdication was not an option, even at the expense of taking Israel out. Saddam realizes the gravity of such an offense, which is the same reason he wouldn`t take the initiative to attack the USA. Osama Bin Laden on the other hand has nothing to lose

Lastly, why Iraq? There are many governments that need ousting. If such was the premise for war, the USA would be at perpetual war--would they not? Not too many Americans would be fans of high spending on a war that is of no necessity.

Hakim

re:rozaiba # 15

Thanks for the correction.

re: hamidm2 # 32

As far the Iraqis and their fighting chances are concerned, the Americans have made a mess of it! lol

Ciao

Back to sadam,

At last the yanks have realised that most of the iraquis with some oraganisational and administrative capability are the bathists and military men. Last few months they have recruited some soldiers, now they have expanded to some generals, and the day is not far off when they will ring in sadam. There are now reports that sadam is advising the yanks what to do. That would be a real irony.