Bring on The Empty Horses

Sadna #66,

As Dost said, do not despair so easily. I posted a link from the Times of India
someplace else (and there was an identical article in the Far Eastern Economic
Review) about the changing attitudes of the leftists in West Bengal. Of course
there are going to be hiccups, but I don`t think that the overall trend is going to
buckle much - at least, the indicators do not quite point that way.

The good thing about this election is how close the BJP and Congress really are in
terms of seats - hopefully a healthy opposition will emerge. Among the higher profile
portfolios, it`ll be interesting to see who gets Finance, External Affairs and Home
ministry (well, the PM for that matter - will Sonia really be it ?).

dost-mittar #71
Well I can elaborate on what is the basis for my `pessimism` (I prefer to call it realism).

Firstly, the person whose opinions I was paraphrasing personally recalled Manmohan Singh from his days as Finance Minister as having scarcely-concealed personal contempt for Indian endeavours, whether in technology or in industry. If the assessment was right, I wonder whether if it came from his days in World Bank/IMF?/general babudom. You might think his contempt is justified(I emphatically do not), but the fact remains - self-contempt at policy level is NOT the right attitude to lead India to better progress and brighter future.

Secondly, the augmented Left strength comes from Kerala. Ironically, the Kerala Left won those seats OPPOSING AK Anthony`s Congress/UDF whose reformist agenda they have been consistently opposing in Kerala. Instances of the Left`s utter lack of principle wrt economic matters in Kerala has been there for Keralites to personally see for themselves in the last few years.

Thirdly being a chochilist party, Congress has its own affiliated labor unions to keep happy so would prefer not to stir the pot of sick state enterprises. I am not sure BJP ever had to worry on that count at least.

``It wasn`t so much Vajpayee but the fact that most of the state govts. are broke and the central bank has reached the limits to which it could bale them out. ``

Again I will cite Kerala. In the old days, whenever the Kerala govt. went into a cash crisis, Karunakaran would airdash to N. Delhi, get interim relief from the obliging Congress Prime Minister. And I am yet to hear of what he did to increase revenue generation in the state itself, which is a requirement for releasing of certain Central funds which politicians found ways to sidestep. Under Vajpayee who appeared to have good rapport with nonBJP Chief Ministers as well, it was not so easy for CMs. They have had to work harder than before to grow their state economy.

Basically it is new NDA-era politics of `increase the pie and take a larger share` vs old Congress politics of `grab the same old pie for yourself and parcel out portions to your cronies`.

sadna#66:
You are being unduly pessimistic!

``One problem with Manmohan Singh was that he was interested in liberalisation for the benefit of foreign enterprise. He was not as interested in liberalisaton of the DOMESTIC economy for the benefit of domestic enterprise(which is what is desperately needed).``

Manmohan Singh started out with those liberalisation policies which caused least pain to entrenched vested interests, such as cutting import duties and easing imports. This was the natural thing to do. He did not have time to undertake the next phase of liberalisation.

``A second problem is that leftists will be in govt/ruling coalition, so whatever any economic geniuses in the Congress want in this respect will face fierce resistance. Labor reforms may be killed too. ``

The leftists have also learnt their lessons. The West Bengal govt. under Budhdev is among the most progressive and regularly got raving commendations from none other than Arun Shourie. Indeed, Kolkota is fast emerging as a rival to the southern silicon valley. Wipro has just announced its biggest expansion outside Bangalore in Kolkota. Labour reforms have always moved at snail`s pace and will continue to do so. OTOH the presence of the communists might bring greater labour peace.

``A third problem is that under Vajpayee, the states were forced to begin rationalising their finances, which are in a big mess. The Congress, traditionally, didnot bother to take up that fight.``
It wasn`t so much Vajpayee but the fact that most of the state govts. are broke and the central bank has reached the limits to which it could bale them out.

``Fourthly due to the old style politics, which Arun Shourie and the late Kumaramangalam encountered even within their own party, we might be back to state enterprises bleeding the state economies dry.``
Even the WB chief minister had been talking about partnerships and blah blah wrt such industries. Manmohan Singh has said that he is in favour of faster privatisation of loss-making units but not in favour of profit-making units being privatised.

The reform agenda has since the time of Manmohan Singh been driven by the policy wonks at Finance, no matter which govt. was in power. There is no reason to believe that it will be different this time.

#67 jang
I agree with you.It really is time to celebrate.Gone are the days of landslide victories, on issues such as Mandir or sympathy wave,on whiich Rajiv won. People will not go for useless election planks any more.And the ruling party would never feel complacent. They have to get everything right,there is no place for propaganda. IT champion Naidu went because he ignored some portions of AP, the IT spoils were not apportioned appropriately. If you have no electricity, I have a good feeling you would not give a damn about IT.And however socialist it may seem, a poor man`s vote is equal to a rich man`s vote.Naidu went, and along with him he took NDA. If the Congress play around, they will go too in the next election.Just one thing, I would rather have seen someone like Manmohan Singh as the prime minister.Though Sonia`s origin is a non issue.

Vajpayee`s class act:
Although I did not support Vajpayee`s election I admire the grace with which he accepted his defeat. Excerpt:
``We have given up office, but not our responsibility to serve the nation. We have lost an election, but not our determination,`` he said in an address to the nation.``

sri
It is only a Pakistani delusion that India without BJP in power is a pushover. BJP was good for that much, in that it made it difficult to hold on to such delusions.

But the fact remains, Indians were never pushovers, not even when India was much poorer, not even under a Pakistani stereotype of pushover Indians - `daal-eating dhoti-wearing short and puny` Lal Bahadur Shastri.

#64 by gandubhujjia

heh, heh. did you flunk your jee exams?

I say a big kudos to the recently done elections. India indeed is shining. A billiion + people giving a lesson in peacful governance and change of power to the region, if not the world. Hats off to all the election officers, voters and candidates who braved 45 c heat, and bigger hats off to the losers who seem to be biting the dust gracefully. The election results indicate a new confidence from the electorate who said ``india shining? well ok, but we would try something a little different``. It was not a case of large rejetion of BJP. It shows a confidence of the electorate to not worry about bogeys of pardesi bahu. It shows that indians absolutely love fair women over wheatish men. Laloo will be the new union minister for fodder and cowdung. Ministry for cow-urine however is now defunct. Gujjus seemed to have hedged their bets being craftly bussinessmen that they are. Manohar Joshi will be selling Vada Pav from a hand cart. Govinda will get TVs installed in local trains with non-stop bollywood dance numbers, and erase Ram Naiks name from all the public toilets from Borivli to Virar and replace them with his smiling face. DMK will get some federeal cases registered against Jayalalitha. Naidu will become a programmer for Romairs IT company. Pramod Mahajan with his fancy suit can easily get a job as a desk-clerk with the Mumbai Airport Grand Maratha Hotel. Vajpayee will join the film industry and write songs, whereby Javed Akhtar will think of going to Lollywood fearing hindu domination. It wil be great to hear and watch Navjot Siddu on ``Parliament Today`` instead of sports channel.

So, in summary, India is indeed shining, time to distribute some tri-color laddus.

#55
``I think you should call the new anthem ``Soniar Bharat``! ``

Actually my Marathi is better than my Bengali (I grew up in Mumbai/Pune)

How about ``Amchi tai, Sonia-bai``

(our elder sister, Sonia madam)

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coalition govt with congress at the helm is unlikely to survive. coalition partners will only take so much humiliation before pulling the rug. nda will be a strong opposition with close to 200 seats and vajpayee as their leader.

mid-term elections in a couple of years is a distinct possibility alongwith the return of nda+-

sri #61
I remember Manmohan Singh explaining long ago how economic reforms gave Indian government `space for manoeuvre` or breathing room for domestic development expenditure. That was understood by the NDA too. Even purely from a politician pov, the better the economy does, the better his cut - this may be the new trend of the last few years.

Will it continue with this govt? Let me repeat what someone knowledgeable pointed out some years ago.

One problem with Manmohan Singh was that he was interested in liberalisation for the benefit of foreign enterprise. He was not as interested in liberalisaton of the DOMESTIC economy for the benefit of domestic enterprise(which is what is desperately needed).

A second problem is that leftists will be in govt/ruling coalition, so whatever any economic geniuses in the Congress want in this respect will face fierce resistance. Labor reforms may be killed too.

A third problem is that under Vajpayee, the states were forced to begin rationalising their finances, which are in a big mess. The Congress, traditionally, didnot bother to take up that fight.

Fourthly due to the old style politics, which Arun Shourie and the late Kumaramangalam encountered even within their own party, we might be back to state enterprises bleeding the state economies dry.

All these policies were pro-poor, but for the long term. IMO, the NDA under Vajpayee was TRYING to break new ground in all these respects. Manmohan Singh or others might not even try and Congress might just go back to its socialist ways.

So the thing to see is the Congress going to adapt to needs of 2004 or are we back to the 70s and 80s?

#53 by Romair

`` This is quite amazing. BJP seems to have lost.

I thought BJP was supposed to win big. How does a party, which itself calls an election early, lose in that same election? This must be considered a large political blunder. Not that I am a BJP fan. I have never liked them, other than Vajpayee`s peace offerings to Pakistan. ``

Like most of the Pakistanis, I you still have hostile feelings towards India, I say congrats to you man. Your enemy seems to be pretty stupid. India is now back towards it`s familiar dynasty rule and 50 years of ``Hindu growth rate``.

I kinda feel that, during last 2 or 3 years, Pakistanis have understood that they lost edge to India mainly because it`s economy. Losing superiority in economy means losing it in security also. As a result, pakistanis have gone through a lot of introspection. The rash of self introspecting articles on chowk is a case in point. I like that. You guys now understand that you need to gain superiority in economy. Well, Indians now seem to be handing that to you guys on a platter. Now, eventually as you gain superiority in economy in South Asia ( aided in large part by the familiar ``Hindu growth rate`` ), you guys will also get a more sympathetic hearing on your arguments regarding kashmir. If India doesn`t give Kashmir to Pakistan voluntarily, international community will make it give.

All in all, congrats to Pakistan.

Strangely i don`t feel bad about this whole debacle. I got very simple philosophies.

1. People deserve what they choose.
2. Stupid people deserve to be exterminated.

I felt that Pakistanis have been stupid in the last 15 years with their stupid obsessions and thought Indians are intelligent for recognizing what`s important in life. But hey, what do you know. The tables have turned.

It is amazing indeed.

#60 by sadna on May 13, 2004 8:16am PT

`` Secondly, the self-absorbed middle class and its leaders need to stop thinking that they alone, represent India.

Thirdly, the economic reforms and liberalisation of the NDA should not be rolled back. Hopefully Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram will see to that, though AP is likely to regress.

Fourthly, I wonder since along with the NDA rout, even Shiv Sena got defeated in Mumbai, what will Ms Farzana talk about. When she next makes ominous references to `them` who will that be?:). ``


India is screwed.

I may be incredibly tempted to give a big lecture on Economic theory, monetary policy, how economy develops, etc, etc but given that most Indians have proved themselves to be idiots/borderline commies, i feel, what the heck, let the TURD WORLDERS f themselves up.

V. unexpected results. And Govinda got elected.

Firstly, exit pollsters need to quit their day jobs.

Secondly, the self-absorbed middle class and its leaders need to stop thinking that they alone, represent India.

Thirdly, the economic reforms and liberalisation of the NDA should not be rolled back. Hopefully Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram will see to that, though AP is likely to regress.

Fourthly, I wonder since along with the NDA rout, even Shiv Sena got defeated in Mumbai, what will Ms Farzana talk about. When she next makes ominous references to `them` who will that be?:).

BJP loses because of TNT-

Read my earlier prognosis regarding TNT beuing the real cause of BJP`s downfall:

````#23 My Pakistan Diary: Lahore Aaya Main Othay Dil Chhod Aaya! on April 29, 2004
#208 by vertex on April 28, 2004 9:20pm PT

..............Any way, read this editorial form TOI in order to understand why ABV would be retiring soon...............and why Advani and Murli Joshis would be losing the elections due to their stupid understanding of IMs and their adherence to the TNT....... ````

Well, according to Rediff, Govinda has won! Obviously, he is not an empty horse!