Pessimism with Growth, Why?

TAKHTA # 18 - You wrote: ``Referring to a dictator as a whore and foreign policy as love-making acts are more apt expressions for someone of lesser standing, unless ofcourse, I am mistaken.``

I apologize. I did not mean to degrade the whores to the level of Field Marshal Musharraf. At least, a whore gets to set her own rate.

Regarding foreign policy - you are not suggesting that we are masters of our own destiny? Are you?

Dawn`s editorial page (June 13th or 14th) listed the unemployment figure at 8.27% up from over seven percent last year. They also stated that poverty has `declined`.

However, in later editions of papers, the credibility of these numbers were questioned as the government used an extremely small sample (much smaller than it used to measure prior year`s figures) and calculated the income levels intentionally right after the harvest season when people generally have more money and used that small period as a basis for the entire year.

Do read up on these `fuzzy` maths.

This is what ahmedmadani sahib is referring to when he says the government is doing `lafangaybaazee` with numbers.

As for poverty figures, Human Development Center- created by Pakistan`s greatest finance minister ever - the late Dr. Mahbub ul Haq- stated that Pakistan`s poverty rate was 32% in 1999 (other reports claim as high as 35%) and in 2003-04 is projected to be 44%. State Bank reports projections to be 40%.

Thanks.

Excuse the slight side-discussion that I fear to initiate.

1. Where did the figures for unemployment & poverty come from? What is their authenticity?

2. Why can`t Pakistani`s for once appreciate the good things in life? (Point in fact: exports *did* cross a certain milestone last year, validated internationally)

3. From what I know about my own domain (tech sector), job opportunities were on the rise, in comparison to the last few years.

Just my two paisa`s.

PS: Malik99, I was under the impression that an american education would have taught you how to discuss things in a more civilized way. Referring to a dictator as a whore and foreign policy as love-making acts are more apt expressions for someone of lesser standing, unless ofcourse, I am mistaken.

Madani Sahib & others . . . optimism through bilateral common sense . . . from today`s TOI/NEW DELHI: After meeting on nuclear confidence building measures, Indian and Pakistani officials are headed for discussions on the contentious Baglihar hydropower project in J&K. A seven-member Pakistani team arrives here Monday for what will be the first secretary-level talks on this 450-MW project on the Chenab.

The opportunities are everywhere, but IMHO all we have to worry more about is who within the Pakistani and Indian establishments are trying to control what.

The propagandists of the current status quo of a non-democratic feudal system, what you call lafangebaazee and I would call segments of the elitist English media in Pakistan & India, would however rather not let the benefits of such close co-operation reach to the critical masses of our populations. Sad.

ahmedmadani sahib # 13 - I stand in respect and applaud your post. I hope to hear more from you in future.

You have said what many of us feel - that is, this ``Pakistan is Shinning`` mantra is a bogus and a sham. Our economy is rising at the chance of foreign events - such as afghanistan and Iraq. It does not have any legs of its own.

Also, at this moment there is an issue which supercedes ALL other issues - and that issue is the lives of people. At this moment, our government is killing our people. Stopping that is far more important than leisurely topics of budgets and literacy.

#12 by rozaiba

In this age of forums, discussion boards, Blogs and many more forms of internet discussions, there is a new term for what Romair did with the facts and numbers that you quoted. Here goes:

anorecdotalism: when presented with statistics, they respond with a story about meeting an anonymous little old lady @ bus stop or grocery store & whatever she told them is more credible than ANY kind of facts or figures we can provide

Another way of saying: would you rather believe me or your EYES!

Madani Sahib:

Welcome back. You were missed.

Dear AS... thanks for title of article. The title has caught essense of problem. My knowlege is not good or no economic therory background and undergoing anxity and depression bout so kindly bear with deliquencies of minor.
I feel this so called growth is bogus its Lafengebazi of great order. Its more like swelling of body and unhealthy sign. Most of swelling is from one time shot of pumped money shots by one of three trinities ruling pakistan from birth ( Allah , army and america). Also fear of Terrorist organizations, Hawala banks and American crossfire, no body wants to caught unnecessarily has helped money from EXpaks to come to treasury.
I have lived now 56 years in Karachi and in last 4 years of army bout things are running down steadly without halt. You should consult BJP economists how their calaculations stand ?
I am person on street and see with out hate of army. Population growth is arund 2.5%. Inflation is more than 5% ( real inflation) . So accordingly I feel thetre is -ve growth which shows quantam jump of people sliding under poverty. If more people are becoming poor then its economic growth. Stock markets are concentrated on few equities like Hubco or PK Telephone, PSO. So if you take out these eqitities results are quite different. Thsse few stocks almost 60% of whole market. Except stock exchange there is unsaid regression. Textile sector is venerable sector woth almost over 65% export trade. Very few new companies have entered markets. Many companies are delisted. Adamjee insurance etc have spring back. But most companies on any normal stock exchanges will delist 70% companies on KSE.
When they say great growth means no growth in real terms. There is only growth in terms of economic misery. Please go through Karachi shops. Look at prices basic goods then picture becomes clear. Chowk should establish new index made of staples used by people like transportation, food, meat, utilities, water supplies, education costs. Such index can give real ``Gharibi Index``. All other index are bogaus and they can be manufactured as those who make calculations know how to ``Shine Pakistan``. All talk of break through , poverty reduction rising incomes, 6% growth is Lafangebazi of 1st order.
What is needed to General fire economic managers and take command of economy as Economic Tsar. I do not like resident Economists from USA. Just like I pity indian dependendance on one family, I never understand why we always Visiting expaks from America? Are we so stupid that no native can rise to guide or generals overconfidence about American talent. Many times Messers like. Burki etc write praising generals economic polices. One should be beware of such people. They have vested interest in praising ruling overlords. Same Author (B) when pakistans leading govt functionary screwed by borrowing at much higher rates. Be aware of foxes , and foxy economists.
thanks

rozaiba wrote:

...under the rule of Musharaf and Financial guidance of Minister Shaukat Aziz, POVERTY has INCREASED by 12% over the past four years and UNEMPLOYMENT has increased to 9% from last year`s record of 7%...

In response, Romair (much like other fauji lovers) writes:

Shaukut Aziz, Hafeez Sheikh, Ishrat Hussain etc. have done a great job. They deserve a lot of credit. It just goes to so that professionals with proven international credentials, working honestly can succeed. They need to keep the momentum going for another five to ten years.

Well well! Another five to ten years. Indeed. So far the nations poverty stricken population has INCREASED by 18 MILLION! Though this is an ECONOMIC MIRACLE, I never thought it would be one worth celebrating. Perhaps these fauji-lovers need to look at the history of other such BANANA REPUBLICS with far more credible and renowned `professionals with proven international credentials, working honestly` and see where their `stunning` 6-8% economic growth in absence of representative based governance structures and institutions lead them to! It`s always been a disaster!!

With the past trends of this government embracing poverty like there was no tomorrow, these will be interesting times. I really do`nt understand fauji lovers. I really do`nt understand fauji lovers.

Shaukut Aziz, Hafeez Sheikh, Ishrat Hussain etc. have done a great job. They deserve a lot of credit. It just goes to so that professionals with proven international credentials, working honestly can succeed. They need to keep the momentum going for another five to ten years.

A 6.4% economic growth is no small achievement. Specially for an economy that was about to collapse when this team was brought in. One needs to look beyond ones prejudices and biases, when evaluating economies. Economies affect the whole country, not just one community or party. If such a team is given the freedom to work, it doesn`t matter who is running the country, it will prosper.

I have always felt that a country is as good as the performance of its finance ministry and finance minister. Not its prime minister or President or CMLA. India was a basketcase, regardless of whatever achievements one may associates with it, until Manmohan Sing started running the economy. Before that, Pakistan had averaged an economic growth rate 40% higher than India`s, over four decades.

The problem with the political parties dominating Pakistan`s politics (PPP and PML) is that they never put competent people in powerful financial positions. And most of all, they never give professionals a free hand to run the financial institutions. Even if NS appoints Soomro and Tarin as heads of banks, what can they do, if every member of the NS team is screaming down their throats to get their loans written off. Loan defaulting brought Pakistan`s financial system to a standstill.

Musharraf hasn`t peformed any economic miracles. He cannot. He is not an economist. What he has done is get the most competent financial Pakistani minds from the world (their international careers support this), and has put them in the right place. And he has given them the room to work, by minimising corruption, and not allowing anyone to interfere through loan defaults etc.

These individuals have delivered. Like I had always predicted they would. Shaukut Aziz, who always delibertely predicts under-achievement, has predicted 8% economic growth in three years. If Pakistan hits it, which I think it will, and can maintain between 6% - 8% for the next ten years (with equitable distribution for agriculture projects affecting poor), it will be way ahead of where it is today.

This is something all Pakistanis should hope and pray for. It doesn`t matter which govt. achieves that. It will help every Pakistani. Those trying to get the BBs and NSs of the world back into power, so that the heyday of upper class corruption can continue, deserve no one`s sympathy, regardless of how they spin their arguments, under garbs of, ``democracy`` and what not. Such individuals are a disgrace to the word, ``democracy,`` much like their icons - BB and NS........Such and abuse of the word, ``democracy`` is no difference than the abuse of the word, ``Islam`` by various maulvis........

Isn`t it odd that Pakistani feudals and feudal supporters and biggest loan defaulters and tax evaders are the biggest supporters of Pakistan`s twisted election system, which keeps bringing them into power?

Below is a good link putting into perspective the greatness placed in `MACRO ECONOMIC STABILITY`. It`s funny when under the rule of Musharaf and Financial guidance of Minister Shaukat Aziz, POVERTY has INCREASED by 12% over the past four years and UNEMPLOYMENT has increased to 9% from last year`s record of 7%, these fauji lovers will continue to sing praises of `MACRO ECONOMIC STABILITY` (i guess of a highly IMPOTENT kind- much like themselves maybe!).


http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/index.html
Manzur analyses Shaukat’s budget!
View from the Gallery
Nusrat Javed


(excerpt)

...Although broadly agreeing to Manzur, one would still insist that he did not need travelling all the way to Latin America for imagining the ultimate consequences of the ``macro economic stability`` that we hear about a lot in Pakistan these days. In our own country, we had already experienced a ``decade of development,`` under another man ``with vision and courage (and in a military uniform),`` Field Marshall Ayub Khan. All through his decade from 1958 to 1968, the growth rate remained ``stunning.`` The economic prosperity was backed up with political stability that sprang from his ``basic democracy, which suited the genius of our people.``

Instead of celebrating the culmination of this miracle-producing decade, however, mass of the people of Pakistan took the streets in 1968. The popular revolt of that year violently exploded the myth of ``trickle down`` economics. Pakistan appears emulating the Ayub model these days, but hardly a thinking person talks about it with any concern.

A truckload of youthful graduates from Ivy League schools of the USA, with special training in economics and finance, had reached this National Assembly in October 2002. With millions of dollars, donors like the USAID also did everything for building their ``capacity`` as productive legislators through incessant workshops in ``good governance.`` Hardly a person amongst this crowd took the mike for sincerely discussing the budgetary proposals of Shaukat Aziz, since the debate on them had started Tuesday. Most of these self-styled whiz kids represent the third or fourth generations of our usual ``notables,`` and thus sit on the government benches. Like their elitist ancestors, they would never dare coming out into the open with whole truth. They only seek ``patronage`` from rulers of the day and that requires sycophantic praising. Thanks to immoral silence of our elitist politicians, the illusion of ``macro economic stability`` perpetuates and prevails. We desperately needed the likes of Ch Manzur Ahmad for waking up to unbearable realities.

Quoting from the officially provided economic survey, he revealed very disturbing things during his speech. To measure poverty, for example, the economic managers of this government use a bar, which is far below the level employed for measuring the same in rest of the poor countries. Counting unemployment last year, the economic surveyors of Pakistan registered everybody, who had spent ``an hour in a week`` in any wage earning activity, as ``employed.`` This year ``an hour of the surveying period (without quantifying it)`` was used as a measure. Little wonder, ``unemployment`` appears on the decrease and poverty arrested at tolerable levels, in officially distributed reports and surveys along with the budget.

Squeezing the measuring rods to their comfort, economic managers of the Musharraf-Jamali government had invented the feel-good figures and statistics. It will never disturb the conscience of good governance merchants, working per diem for the World Bank etc, however. ``War against terrorism,`` you see, is intensely on in Afghanistan and Pakistan of General Musharraf is a great ally in this regard. Fudging some figures and economic indicators must not come between friends.

ahmadzai # 8 - You wrote ``...President Musharraf is on record of saying that ``its a matter of give and take now. Every country has its national strategic interests to take care of. The USA has their`s and we have ours. It all comes down to negotiations and getting the best out of the deal.````

This is unbelievably shameless bantering!

WHAT `strategic interests` have been served by targeting a van full of women and children with a gunship helicopter? What `strategic interests` have been served by using the sacred instituition of army to surround a whole region of your own country and not letting food and medicine in?

And when did those purported ``negotiatians`` occur with USA? To even suggest the word ``negotiation`` is laughable. General Whore, The Great Giver of Democracy, was ordered to bend-over. He simply asked ``how low``? And that was the extent of the ``negotiations``.

Samad:

A very good comparative article. My submission:

1. Pakistanism and infracaninophileism are synonymus. We have to be lover of the underdogs and when they get beaten up, we have to compulsarily get pessimisitic. We had to side with the most pious of all the Mullas i.e. Umar and with that liberator of all the muslims from the evil viz. Osama Bin Laden. When they get beaten up, we had to side with the biggest ever convert from being a dictator to a Muslim Caliph i.e. Saddam. We had to side with Nek Mohammad, the greatest freedom fighter since Sultan Aladdin Ayubi.

2. Many of us tend to forget that the great achievements of Ayub were reduced to zero by his successors - Yahaya Khan and Bhutto. For example, it was ZAB who had nationalised industry after the fall of EP. Also, many Musharraf haters forget that the latter has on media commended the feats of Ayub, but has never appreciated Yahya and Zia. He is on record for showing his appreciation and depreciation of these people.

3. For the tendency of siding with born loosers as malik99 and rozaiba show, I have to agree with the post of that moron arjun at # 4. This guy arjun is actually capable of hurting all us Pakistanis sometimes by posting facts bluntly.

4. For those who think that Pakistanis have been taken on a joy ride once again by the USA, President Musharraf is on record of saying that ``its a matter of give and take now. Every country has its national strategic interests to take care of. The USA has their`s and we have ours. It all comes down to negotiations and getting the best out of the deal. Pakistan is a nation of 140 million people. We are strong militarily and are on the verge of an economic take-off. We have to be a nation confident of ourselves and be positive``.

So, if anyone thinks that Pakistan has buckeled under the pressure of the USA on any critical matter, let us debate now.

re: malik99

+++
So here is my point: when this ``terror party`` is over in five to ten years and West`s attention shifts from fighting terror to fighting something else, do we have the kind of basic industries and the infrastructure in place to sustain our economic growth?
+++

There are lot of economic sectors where government is still the largest employer. Privatization of these sectors and liberalization (i.e. allowing foreign investment) of these sectors will sustain the economic growth. At the same time, this will improve the efficiency of these sectors.

Generally, Pakistan`s infrastructure is very impressive and the Musharraf govt has wisely continued Nawaz Sharif`s policy of improving the major highways and telecommunication infrastructure. Completion of the Gwadar port in 2005 will also create many opportunities for investment.

Nevertheless, this will be a slow process. As the Chinese foreign minister explained to Nawaz Sharif in 1999... foreign investors are like a flock of birds. When they feel threatened, they fly away as a flock. But when the feel encouraged, they return one at a time, not as a flock.

So I certainly believe that Pakistan has the basic facilities and infrastructure to sustain growth. Whether Pakistan manages to eliminate the regulatory hurdles and establish rule of law is quite a different matter.

PS: The war on terror is also likely to continue for many years. I don`t think it will last just 5-10 years. Even after 3 years of this war, the prime suspects have still not been apprehended and the Karzai govt is still weak.

I think Pakistan`s foreign policy is still spot it could always be better but we don`t have many choices so some times we have to sacrifice to gain something or sacrifice to gain atleast `security for our borders`. I agree that `12 billion+ Dollars` are nothing more then a show piece it can not or is not utilized and distributed to thewelfare of teh people of Pakistan.
But what we should all look at is that atleast we are better of economically then 98 , I think we are still in a right direction although we have problems but which country doesn`t have problems? look at England for a example no jobs *thanks to EU and immigration, Iraq crisis` and this is a country which ruled the world -- I am optamistic somehow its `hip to potray a wrong image and be pesimitic` I guess!

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