Army Action in Wana and Our Responsibility

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#66 by Urstruly

Your loss. Cutting off the nose to spite the face, are you?

harish

``What does my sincerity have to do with the situation in WANA ``

why should I pay attention to an insincere comment. It would be a waste of my precious 5 seconds of eyesight wouldn`t it.

echo

see, thats why I do not talk to zahraj

#58 by Urstruly

[but you are not sincere in your arguments either - I can smell it]

What does my sincerity have to do with the situation in WANA and your response to it? If I were you, I`d take any good advice that comes my way, even if it were from my sworn enemy.

#61 and #62: I strongly feel that both of you need to be sent to a god forsaken place for further investigation on the Wana Case. Please do not kill each with Iqbaliyaat. Be productive and be reasonable. Bye.

Echo

But I dont like her; aah! why do I have to?

;)

Urstruly:
ZahraJ is the second brightest star on CHOWK and the best in the female category. You are number three in the combined category.:)

So, it is she who should thheek-kar you, rather than the other way round. I`ll personally see to that.;)

[you missed the smiley in(59) and she did put one in her reply in(52)]


Now seriously:

She is one of the most balanced young person I have come-across, especially as a muslimah, in this turbulent and trying times. She is as calm and serene as the eye of the storm where she works.

One has to look beyond CHOWK to understand her a bit better.

P.S: ZJ a simple thank you would suffice, for I do want to reserve the right /and cede my right ..to rile you; only sometimes.:)

GOVT OF PAKISTAN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MURDER OF TWO PAKISTANIS

zahraj

lagta hai tumhaiN theek karna paRay ga

harish hyde

I mixed you up with someone else; but you are not sincere in your arguments either - I can smell it.

AbdulQuadir Hasan: Jang columnist

#46 by Urstruly

[I seroiusly doubt the sincerity of your argument. It will only be seen authentic when I will see you appealing to your government to send its troops to Iraq.]

How is asking you to support your troops in WANA related to asking my government to send troops to Iraq? Can you clarify your point?

#50 by taqat-e-parvaaz

[what a lame argument...pretty expected from you though.]

I take it as you have no counter.

theres no doubt this is a problem right now in the muslim world. to claim that muslim history has been separated from incidents like this is ignorant. yet muslims remain the holders of the final revealed religion on this earth. NOTHING will ever change that! as soon as muslims are ruled by efficient rulers, and when our community recognizes its duties and responsibilities, our problems will end. the truth is that the US and Europeans have never wanted strong Muslim leaders to emerge. what muslims need is more dr. mahathir muhammads. they will come. that day is not too far now. that will be our day in the sun...

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# 43

You do? Put your money where your mouth is and show us some references instead of passing hot air

Lord Urstruly: Since I am not the one who is involved in creating conspiracy theories therefore my chances for chanting Hai Hai are quite slim :) Please continue with your polite and insightful sermons. I am sure your ra`aya will be all ears.
Regards.

[`And my friend, Pakistan has been crying hoarse for decades that Kashmir belongs to it. Going by your country`s argument, India IS in possession of Paki land. And Indian soldiers DO drink on Paki land, if not exactly at the Lahore Gymkhana.`]

what a lame argument...pretty expected from you though.

#43
actually i didnt go to school in pakistan. and yeah, we all also know what kind of `actual` history is taught in india.

dear pakistanis on the ground,

Apparently the pakistani media is now far moe active in being more open as well as in plurality (with tv channels like ary, geo etc). So how is the coverage of Wana ops? Apparently its gotta be huge news? Is Barkha Dutt permanently posted with 5 Baloch reporting live as bums go whistling? Are the TV channels showing soldier family members phoning Havildar Alla Ditta in Wana? Are they covering the funerals? Is this a big story comensurate with its import? How does Khabarnama cover this? How does the quantity of this coverage compare with coverage on Iraq?

taqat, since you are in media, you may have a good feel.

(I would ignore english print media completely as its reach is inconsequential. TV is the real thing in the sub-continent).

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INSAAN AUR KUTTA

By Rakaposh


I have always begged God to make one extra Kutta then to make someone ghareeb....

I am sure all the Pakistanis and other nationalities people know how risky it is to work in Iraq. Even the civilians working or travelling there should be regarded as soldiers who may not come back home if they enter Iraq. Its the money which is making them work for employers who may ask them to drive to Iraq anytime.
They take that risk just for dollars and just for bachoN ki school ki fees and Maan kai ilaaj kai paisay...

baicharay Ghareeb...

I feel sorry for their poor families and the deceased ones . I dont want to imagine what pain and torture everybody must have gone through...

Now as for the Iraqi kidnappers/killers, they are desperate barabaric beasts who would kill anyone to spread terror and to get foreigners out of their land. I am sure if it was Pakistan, Pakistani terrorists would have been dau haath aagay.

As for sending Pakistani army to Iraq ...why ? why now ? so that America can place them all where the heat is and get their marines back slowly and gradually and have ours killed in place ?

This is not our war. We have had the sense to keep away from it for so long and we should continue to do the same.

http://www.chowk.com/show_interactor_page.cgi?membername=Rakapo$h

zahraj

uff? abhi hai hai bhi karo gi tum

harish hyde

I seroiusly doubt the sincerity of your argument. It will only be seen authentic when I will see you appealing to your government to send its troops to Iraq.

Arjunm

No actually I find the news of the installation of PISCAS amusing. For decades GOP had been encouraging/forcing Pakistanis, especially the educated ones, to leave the country and make their living elsewhere so that they could have their grubby hands on the foreign exchange that expatriates send home. This amount is in hundereds of millions of dollars per month. Pakistan is basically being run by this handout from Pakistanis. Over the decades GOP has not only benefitted due to this foreign exchange but also it has neferiously diverted pressure on itself to provide jobs to the people, especially the educated professionals. It had deliberately turned a blind eye towards the human smuggling. Ab mazza aye gaa - ya tau GOP ko ya phir amrikiyoN ko - either way it works for me.

We`ve seen our Paki friends find plenty of reasons (freedom struggle, HR violations, etc.) to justify the murder of innocent Indian citizens be it at Akshardham or the Kaluchak military camp, but now when two Paki citizens in Iraq are executed, the Paki spokesman Masood Ahmad Khan says, ``Pakistan has always condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and believes that these barbaric acts can never be justified.`` And this is the same country that sees a manifestation of freedom struggle in such grisly incidents as Akshardham and Kaluchak. Now let`s see our friends talk about the root causes.

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#39

Yep, we all know about the ``Actual`` history that is taught in Pakistani schools.

I would say we should be at loggerheads with it.

#39 by taqat-e-parvaaz

[yeah, thats why india has so much of pakistani land right?]

India had a huge chunk of West Paki land in `71 but refused to keep it because it knew the cost of keeping it occupied would far outweigh the benefits. And once Paki forces surrendered at Dhaka, East Pakistan was there for the taking.

And my friend, Pakistan has been crying hoarse for decades that Kashmir belongs to it. Going by your country`s argument, India IS in possession of Paki land. And Indian soldiers DO drink on Paki land, if not exactly at the Lahore Gymkhana.

#various by Urstruly

Man, look at what some fellow Muslims have done to your compatriots in Iraq. And if after this, you still choose not to wake up, not even Allah can save you.

[`Knowing what the Indian Army did to the Paki Army (3 wars, Siachen and Kargil...ass-whupped each time)`]

yeah, thats why india has so much of pakistani land right? you are deluded...go read your history of how people in lahore laid down their lives in `67 after a indian general promised his troops would drink inside the lahore gymkhana. you`re version of history and actual history are at loggerheads my friend.

#33: Uff..... How convincing! Killer Arguments! It seems that Lord Urstruly was addressing his Ra`aya. He has the talent to be an emotionally effective leader. Wow!

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#33

Urstruly, has it escaped your attention that this fight is not to target Pakistanis but the arabs, the Uzbecks, the Chechens and various other jihadi riff-raff being sheltered by these tribals. What do you expect to happen when ALL reasonable requests to first stop patronizing them and second to get rid of them falls on deaf ears?

You wax lyrical about the senate. This is the same institution that lives in Musharaff`s hip pocket. You expect these mice to roar like lions?

``The constitution of Pakistan`` -- Please give me a break!!!!!

#30 by arjun_m

Yes - right on. Misfortune of the criminals is good news for the world. Never go soft on criminals and their supporters until they are completely vanquished.

Would you feel happy when a serial killer gets caught, tangled in his own web of deception ... or do you feel sorry for him, empthize with him?

Tough moral question, for some. For others - good riddance - god is great.

Why should I feel for pakis who have been plotting my death by ``thousannd cuts`` since forever?

And furthermore under international law, the rulings of International Court of Justice on war crimes, International Criminal Court and Geneva Convention the excuse that ``I was just following orders`` is not acceptable. No war criminal has ever been excused using this line of defense. Pakistan is a signatory to all these international forums. Therefore, I would appeal to the good conscience of all Paksitanis to condemn this attrocity on your fellow citizens before another indignity befells on our nation. Remember, not every one is as benevelont and forgiving as Bangladeshis.

Dear Several People


In case you are forgetting, the Na-Pak Army has absolutely no moral right or legal authority to point their guns at Pakistani citizens. The constitution of Paksitan gives protection to the life and property of all human beings. This is extra judicial murder, a genocide, a war crime that Na-Pak fauj is committing against the people whom it is supposed to protect. Have we given peace a chance?. How could we, when all politicians, journalists, humaitarian workers and religious leadres are banned from entering the tribal areas. Neither senate nor national assembly has approved or even discussed this genocide aka ``operation``. The constitution charters such an action only through police and perhaps rangers, otherwise, parliament has to approve this murder to be legalized. Na Pak fauj is using gun-ship helicopters, cannons, tanks, and laser guided cruise missiles to kill women and children and destroy mosques and schools. That is the reason every NaPak fauji who is waging a war against his fellow citizens is a war criminal and a kafir, for he is waging this war on behest of kafirs. Therefore, anyone who supports this murder even with words is a kafir and his social boycott is incumbent on every Muslim.


In case you are already forgetting that the Rogue nations like US and Britian have recently destroyed Iraq citing the reason that saddam was killing his own people (it is another story that he was killing his own people at the behest of these very rogue nations). And now these rogue nations are jumping like monkeys on the issue of Darfur while it was them who armed the people of Darfur and incited them to wage a war against Khartum. Please explain to me why this illegal and immoral war that Na Pak fauj has launched on its own people is any different.

People! Remember if you want Pakistan to be a law abiding constitutional state then you have to protect even those, from the murderous state machinery, whom you hate the most. That is the reason, while I hate genocidal maniacs of MQM with a passion I have always raised voice in favor of them to protect them from murderous state machinery. Remember you have the ultimate power to do the right thing and not the gun totting criminal of na pak fauj. Do the right thing. Raising your voice against oppression is also Jihad.

Mog
//...The influx of refugees from POK into J&K has already started, and from what I hear on the grapevine, is about to commence in Thar/Sindh towards Rajasthan/Gujarat..//

That`s news to me. But I won`t be surprised. thousands of muslims are sneaking into india from Bdesh everyday - the same country they left 50 years ago because they couldn`t live with hindoos ..... Man, these people are crazy.

Anyway - I don`t mind refugees as long as the criminal enterprise in pakistan is dissolved completely.

And yes - I am satisfied and relieved that the pakis are finally getting their just deserts, because otherwise they would continue their criminal activities forever - harming India and world at large. These people must bear the maximum pain from the blowback - that`s what they deserve. They must learn it the hard way - world will be a safer place after that.

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``Family`s `deserter` shame lifted``

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3933183.stm

Why has the Pakistani army abandoned norms of civilized conduct?

AnIndian/17, I agree with your reasoning.

BUT.

An unstable and dissolving Pakistan next door to North & West India is not good news for us in North & West India. Something like East Pakistan/Bangladesh/1970-71 was not good news for East India. I mean, here is Kolkata, it took almost 20+ years to recover from those ravages next door.

The influx of refugees from POK into J&K has already started, and from what I hear on the grapevine, is about to commence in Thar/Sindh towards Rajasthan/Gujarat.

From history, one learns that religion ceases being the issue after approximately 48 hours of hunger & thirst, especially if there are women & children along.

We are surely not jumping up and down in joy in India at the situation facing our neighbours. But we surely need to be concerned. And express it too, as well as take positions. India is just about coming out of the morass of the past 200 - 300 years, and now this again?

Agreed with you only with a point the Poor soilders will only do what they are asked to do.. and doing bycott with soilders and their families will be a foolish suggesstion.
As far as threat from Militants, I don`t agree, these militants were always working for pakistan and proved their loyality with pakistan many times. They are not threat to Pakistan, infact the threat is the way we are treating them!!

#13-Urstruly
Bravo!
You must be very proud of acting in such a childish way.
What do you think are soldiers are to do? They joined the military to serve the country from all possible threats and the threats might be from both external or internal sources. And what do you know about Wana and Pakistan for that matter? You come to Pakistan once a year and make judgements? And Harish is right, these militants are a huge threat to Pakistan. I hate Musharraf for a lot of things but if it wasn`t for him, this country would have been Talibanized. Ofcourse, you won`t be affected, sitting in your cosy hole in States. But our lives in Pakistan would have been miserable, not to forget that the very existence of Pakistan would have been at stake.
Grow up. Just boycotting your military relatives is not the solution to the problem. Unless Mush happens to be your uncle!
And the last thing that the families of the soldiers need is a social boycott! Are you really mad to suggest this?Or is this what they are doing in States with the families of soldiers in Iraq?

#24 by taqat-e-parvaaz

[as for you harish, keep your low IQ thoughts to yourself.]

Man, mine is low IQ. Yours is no IQ.

[ pakistans tribal area is still extremely loyal to the country. why dont you send your brave Army to NWFP to fight these hardened fighters? that would be the ass kicking of the century! hahahaaa...]

Oh yeah, the Paki tribals who consider themselves Afghan and have more sympathies for their cousins across the Durand Line than Pakis are extremely loyal to their country.....Afghanistan. Knowing what the Indian Army did to the Paki Army (3 wars, Siachen and Kargil...ass-whupped each time)...I`m sure they are much more competent than their Paki counterparts and can do a damn good job of it, if they ever got a chance to fight the tribals.

Am I the only one or is there someone else too who thinks this taqat-e-parvaaz chap is none other than the famous `Assistant Editor` Omar Qureshi??

#17 by AnIndian

Take it easy pal - pakis are not going die enmass because somebody said ``I told you so``.

Besides, sometimes it`s fun to pr!ck a pompous paki a$$.

...and it is the US that is a savage nation?? HAHAHA!

way to make such a strong comeback stuka! as for you harish, keep your low IQ thoughts to yourself. pakistans tribal area is still extremely loyal to the country. why dont you send your brave Army to NWFP to fight these hardened fighters? that would be the ass kicking of the century! hahahaaa...

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Important questions have been raised throughout this inquisitive article. Perhaps a method of returning the favor to any such author who takes the pain could be by contributing one’s two cents worth to the debate and try & help in reaching for a perspective, however lopsided that contribution may be due to inherent biases in all of us. One such questions in the article on situation in Pakistan, is;

***How did things come to this?***

So what is ‘this’?. As per the article ‘this’ is the treatment of Wana residents at the hands of Pak army. The similarity of methods to those adopted by US army in Afghanistan and Iraq is the ironic reality which looks to be as one of the motivations behind the article (and perhaps should also serve as a mirror to people who by default favor the status quo due to its false impression of calm). Acceptance of Pak army’s conduct while condemnation of ‘others’ being the expose’. Also by extension this question can easily be considered to cover the overall geopolitical realities that Pakistan faces today and has faced in the last few decades.

And now the attempt at answering the question; successive governments in Pakistan, surely like others elsewhere, have convinced themselves in past or were convinced by circumstance/others to make reactionary or short-term decisions, and kept on justifying them in light of ‘broader national interests’. In recent past some examples are the Islamisation of society (needed for Afghan war?), the support to Kashmir freedom struggle (right when seen in light of morality? wrong when seen in hindsight due to so far unsuccessful results from Kashmiri perspective?), acceptance of Taliban (acceptable as instrument of peace in war torn Afghanistan?), abandonment of Taliban (post 9/11 necessity? who wants to side with losers? need to save own ass?), ‘abandonment’ of Kashmir cause (again a post 9/11 reality?). Ok, so now is it any wonder Pakistan has a disillusioned segment in its populace which has been fed on doctrines of now abandoned initiatives and causes? And which now acts the angry lava under the land bounded by a polity called Pakistan, with sporadic eruptions from Karachi to Peshawar.

An easy picking while identifying a common thread here, is the Pak army. But before we go further and declare army the raison d’etre of every ill in Pakistan, its important to note that its neither my intention nor seems like the purpose of Mukhlis’ article, since that I suspect will limit the scope of article. May be it is relevant to note that a separate stream of thought can perhaps be developed through which the constant presence of army in Pakistan’s political/civilian history can be justified or at least rationalized by Pakistan`s ever-present belligerent neighbor to east and the regional ambitions of greater powers in the background.

What Mukhlis also laments, and very importantly, in my opinion is the reluctance on the assumption of responsibility by all of ‘us’. This ‘impotence’ comes from many a reasons, an important amongst which could be the disempowerment of successive generations of Pakistanis (blame perhaps equally goes to inept politicians and impatient generals). I tend to read this as a continual failure of a society to produce leaders. So, we need leaders who learn the lessons from past and not repeat the mistakes. I repeat, politicians cannot be exempted from taking equal blame because it was they who were handed the torch and their leadership could have made the difference.

***Will we ever learn from our history?***

Yes, we will. Of course the irony of the situation is that ‘we’ will continue to make ‘new’ mistakes in changing realities of world, philosophically speaking that is. And if education, empowerment etc. etc. are measures of anything then there is no blessed a place on earth than US. Now can anyone rationally say what a ‘democratic’ government in US has done post 9/11, benefited the world? (cant hide my frustration with what democracy is coming to be in the Land-of-the-Free)

The bottom line then regarding the debate at hand seems to me that we must not repeat the mistakes already made and paid for. Which for all purposes our beloved army seems to be doing and therefore then it is perhaps the call of times that we play our part of responsibility in forms and manners possible for us. Perhaps then Mukhlis has played out his, within his limitations.

[Those soldiers who die while killing Muslim Pakistanis in Wana, their namaz-e-janaza is haraam and it is inumbent upon every Muslim that they should impose a social boycott of the families of the soldiers who are dying there.

In a recent trip to Pakistan, I refused to invite any military personnel who are relatives and friends at a family function. And I also refused to meet some of my childhood friends who are currently serving in military. We have to act together to save our country from military`s greed and lawlessness.]

How charismatic!

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To Indians who posted here:

Let the Pakistanis take care of their own problems instead of jumping up & down saying ``I told you so``. It is pretty unbecoming. Pakistanis may harp about Kashmir let them do so and continue to make a fool of themselves. No need to join their party in Wana.

Urstruly,

``Those soldiers who die while killing Muslim Pakistanis in Wana, their namaz-e-janaza is haraam and it is inumbent upon every Muslim that they should impose a social boycott of the families of the soldiers who are dying there. ``

This is utter nonsense. May I remind you that these soldiers are merely following orders, yet it is these militants who have no problems in firing back and killing these soliders of their own free accord. What of their status? Heroes? Are they to become siants we should build shrines to? Give it a rest.

I too can play this game. In an Islamic system there is only room for one government. Agitation against this government is nothing less than spreading mischief, and the punishment mandated by God is death/crucifixtion or having any opposing hand and foot dismembered. Gen. Musharraf is, qute honestly being a softie. The Islamic republic and it`s policies may be imperfect, however that is no excuse for treason. The political idealism of the ignorant few must be made subserviant to the descisions of the ruling few who are in the know.

``the jihadis are roaming around your country to, at the behest of the ISI. they are in your country, on your borders, everywhere. one stupid move and you can expect similar attacks. ``

...and it is the US that is a savage nation?? HAHAHA!!

#13 by Urstruly

Man, are you a deluded fool or what? Pakistan`s very existence is at stake. And the poor soldiers are only doing what they are being asked to do. They are in the Army for exactly that. When will you understand that the militants in WANA are more a threat to your beloved Pakistan than the US? When the US does an Iraq on Pakistan? The Paki soldiers are only fighting to ensure Pakistan`s survival. If anything, you should boycott the leadership that makes the decisions, not the ordinary soldier who is merely doing his duty. And in this case, even the leadership has taken the right decision in trying to rid Pakistan of the Al Qaeda.

I am an Indian and nothing would make me more happy than dissent and strife over Pakistan`s policy in the tribal areas. But in this case I can only sympathise with the Paki soldier who`s damned if he fights, damned if he doesn`t.

It is the warped thinking of people like you that has done more damage to Pakistan than any Army can ever possibly do.

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Those soldiers who die while killing Muslim Pakistanis in Wana, their namaz-e-janaza is haraam and it is inumbent upon every Muslim that they should impose a social boycott of the families of the soldiers who are dying there.

In a recent trip to Pakistan, I refused to invite any military personnel who are relatives and friends at a family function. And I also refused to meet some of my childhood friends who are currently serving in military. We have to act together to save our country from military`s greed and lawlessness.

*Yawn*
Excuse me.
Firstly Mukhlis, take a chill pill.
Secondly, Pakistanis can never learn from history. If we could, Zia would never have ruled for a decade and Mush would never have come in power and trampled the constitution so mercilessly. But then, we never learn from our mistakes.
Thirdly, our so called educated class will never talk about Wana. Just like they never talked about Kargil.
That`s how we are and that`s how we`ll remain..
Long live Pakistan!!

here is an article from an indian ex-military analyst


Is Pakistan unravelling?

Lt. Col (retd) Anil Athale

July 26, 2004

In the wake of the enquiry commission report on the events of 9/11, there is a spate of articles in the American media detailing the major role played by Pakistan in that catalytic event. At the popular level in America, as shown in various Hollywood movies, Pakistanis are often depicted as terrorists along with the Arabs.

On a recent visit to the US one was struck by the general air of pessimism prevailing amongst American think tanks about the future of Pakistan. Some of these experts are well known for their soft corner for that country, therefore it was all the more surprising. Earlier that honour was reserved for India; predictions of its break-up after Nehru or after the BJP came to power were routine. But similar sentiments being expressed about Pakistan was indeed a new experience.

The reasons for the Pakistani crisis according to them were:

The rift within the Pakistan army between the rank and file and officers; between senior officers and junior officers (the post Zia period and influenced by the Islamist world view versus the old guard that is more pro-American and moderate); and within the officer class as a whole between the Islamists and the moderates.

Unrest in Pakistani civil society due to food shortages and the clear perception that the army was hoodwinking the people under the guide of the threat from India.

Disenchantment with the mullahs who are now increasingly seen as the biggest threat to Islam.

Regional differences between the provinces where Sindh and Baluchistan feel discriminated against in matters of allocation of financial resources.

Effects of the anti-tribal operations in the Waziristan area.

Effects of the Indian general election where the Pakistani people, especially the poor, saw how democracy works. In Pakistan they are powerless under army rule. This feeling of disaffection has also spread to the middle class.

The two pillars on which the ruling mullah-military alliance stood -- the threat from India and the danger to Islam -- both stand discredited and weakened, if not altogether demolished. The hype and mass coverage to the recently concluded cricket series did much to blunt the anti-India edge. Paradoxically the wide media coverage given to the frequent missile tests conducted by Pakistan have further convinced the vast majority of Pakistanis that India no longer poses a threat to them.

Singly, none of these factors could pose a threat of the dissolution of Pakistan. But the fact that these multiple crisis are occurring simultaneously is the real danger.

The US places a lot of faith in Musharraf. They feel he is their best bet to keep Pakistan together and away from turning a terrorist. But the Americans are clearly worried about the very survival of Musharraf in case of a major catch like Mullah Omar or Osama bin Laden as a result of the ongoing military operations in the Pakistan/Afghanistan border areas.

The Americans are concerned that the collapse of Pakistan may remove the vital pillar of their Afghan and anti-terror policy and are searching for answers. But it also appears that they may well be preparing for the inevitable if that becomes unavoidable.

Given the proximity of the Americans to the Pakistani establishment, their views have to be taken seriously.

HOW WILL IT UNRAVEL?

Two possible scenarios are:

Revolt in the periphery

The provinces of Sindh, Baluchistan, the Northern Areas and Pakistan occupied Kashmir may well revolt against Punjabi domination. The North West Frontier Province is already part of Afghanistan all except in name, so it is likely to continue in the same way.

It is accepted that the Pakistani army is capable and ruthless enough to crush this revolt with great brutality. But if all the periphery revolts at the same time then its resources are not adequate. At most the Pakistan army can deal with one revolt at a time, not more than that.

In this case while there would be no direct military threat to India, we may well be saddled with a huge refugee influx, especially from Sindh and PoK.

In addition, jihadi elements may well try to create similar disturbances in India by engineering Godhra-type incidents. The Amarnath Yatra may well be the first target.

As the central authority would be weak in this situation, jihadis may well be totally out of control with grave threat of increased terrorism in India that would be random and directed at creating communal animosities in India. This would be helped by the local sympathisers of jihadis who have created virtually autonomous enclaves in major urban centres of India.

Taliban-like hardliners take over the Pakistan army and the State

The second possible scenario is that a hardline faction of the army consisting of younger elements led by someone like Lieutenant General Mohammad Aziz with help of the Jamaat-e-Islami take over the army. It may not mean any rift within the army as the Pakistan army has a tradition of conducting bloodless coups.

What may well happen is the systematic purge of army moderates and elimination of opposing civilians. The revolt could be bloody if the moderate army leadership finds support amongst the rank and file and those units stand by and fight.

It is now clear that the two assassination attempts against Musharraf were an inside job signifying that there is a sizeable pro-fundamentalist faction within the army. But if the extremists are stronger when faced with the prospect of certain defeat, it is unlikely that any soldier would hitch his future with the moderates.

There may well be resistance in civil society. In case this scenario is to materialise since the jihadi forces would be fully engaged in consolidating their hold over Pakistan, there would be very little attempt to foment trouble in India. The flow of refugees is, however, likely to be even greater.

Since a Taliban-like takeover of Pakistan is certain to invite economic sanctions, Pakistan would face economic collapse as all aid would dry up. A Taliban-like regime in Pakistan would have long term repercussions on India in that the hardline Islamists within India would get greater support. A sort of mirror image of what happened to Pakistan when the Taliban took over Afghanistan.

The Taliban-like revolt would have grave repercussions on the West`s war on terrorism in Afghanistan and a likely military intervention by the West may take place.

India cannot keep aloof from these events. In this scenario the use of Pakistani nuclear weapons against India -- either authorised or by rogue elements -- is very likely.

How far the Americans have seized control of Pakistani nukes is not known at this point in time. A web site sometime ago claimed that the jihadis have control over two/three nuclear-tipped missiles.

The basic cause for unravelling of Pakistan was the very un-naturalness of the concept of Pakistan. If religion alone could be basis of nationalism then what about the Hindus and Christians in Pakistan? Are they also a separate nation?

THE CONTRARY VIEW

A long-term context and view of Islam shows that Islamic separatism is still a potent force in the subcontinent. The spread of political Islam was halted on the banks of Narmada in the 18th century. But in the North of the subcontinent there has been no rollback of Islamic influence like in Europe. The separation of Bangladesh could well be explained as having taken place due to geographical factors. The current Islamisation of Bangladesh shows that clearly. Pakistan could well be seen as an extension of the Middle East into the Indian subcontinent. Wherever in a local majority -- as in Kashmir -- the Muslims yearn for a separate state or merger with an existing Islamic entity.

The Pakistani achievement of survival between 1947 and 1954 (before the beginning of Western aid) should not be underestimated. A huge (in proportion of its overall population) inflow of refugees, total absence of any infrastructure of government and lack of natural resources and industry did not deter Pakistan from not only surviving but thriving and even invading parts of India like Kashmir.

The `hate India` cement is too strong and the rulers will use it when faced with difficulty and label all revolts on the periphery as `anti-Islam` and crush them ruthlessly.

The very basis of Pakistan is anti-democracy. It was created since the Muslims did not accept living under a Hindu majority. The creation of Pakistan on that basis ensured that democracy remained a factor to be suppressed with the use of Sharia and feudalism. Islam has been used by the Pakistani elite for governance and keeping India destabilised. The Pakistan army would not break up or revolt, it would merely change its role from `modernising` to enforcing the Sharia.

A revolt by the poor and dispossessed in Pakistan is unlikely as the people of the subcontinent have a virtually unlimited capacity to suffer. The history of Islam in the subcontinent shows that an Aurangzeb invariably succeeds against a liberal Dara Shikoh. This has been proved time and again.

What is likely to happen in Pakistan is a series of coups as a letting off steam mechanism for its society. Witness the exactly identical rhetoric against corruption that has been used by all military coup leaders since Ayub Khan and swallowed by the Pakistan public.

One of the coups could well usher in an Islamist and Taliban-like corps commander and lead to the Talibanisation of Pakistan. As long as the minimum level of order prevails and the common man can survive, there is no chance of unravelling of Pakistan.

As against the above argument, some reports suggest the anarchy that prevails in Karachi and even Lahore is such that ordinary thievery is passé. In its place are crimes like car snatching. There have been reports of Pakistan army officers defying the orders to shoot at civilians in tribal areas.

Musharraf is a prisoner in his palace and does not dare move out. The minimum level of order has already collapsed in Pakistan and the use of the army to restore order would bring it in direct confrontation with the people. Would it then act against the people or the rulers?

CONCLUSIONS

First and foremost, the Indian government, media and the people must give up the woolly notion of attributing all this to the machinations of the ISI. It is time we realised the truth -- that the ISI is manned by Pakistan army personnel on deputation and operates under the firm control of the Pakistan army chief. For all intents and purposes, it is part and parcel of the Pakistan army.

Prime Minister Jamali has recently been replaced. The scenario of coups and counter coups seem to be in place.

India has to watch out for:

The advent of an Islamist leader at the helm of affairs.

If there is a peaceful coup then the terrorists would be unleashed against India as the best bet for a new ruler to establish himself.

If there is a Taliban-like takeover then its local sympathisers would create trouble and there is a greater danger of pre-emptive use of nukes by Pakistan as the Taliban mindset is inherently illogical and unstable.

Musharraf`s constant blowing hot and cold is a symptom of the instability there. At the minimum, India must expect and deal with the continuing campaign of terror against us.

very good article. the actions that the Army took in wana were completely irresponsible. it has been reported that quite a few soldiers are due for court marital because they refused to fire upon innocent countrymen. thank God our soldiers are still among the best in the world. it is our generals who need to be taught a lesson. woe to the US for wrecking the sovereignty of a nation like pakistan. may God exact a justful revenge against that savage nation.
and hey arjun, dont be too happy. the jihadis are roaming around your country to, at the behest of the ISI. they are in your country, on your borders, everywhere. one stupid move and you can expect similar attacks.

I`m shocked to see this coming from a Pakistani ;-)

On a serious note, I feel Pakistan is on the downward spiral into the abyss. Nothing you can do to stop it. Mushy is concerned more about his own survival than of his nation`s. He is beholden to the Americans for allowing him to run his fief unchallenged. The Opposition is busy plotting his downfall even as the nation goes to dogs. The Jihadis, well, they have an agenda of their own, Pakistan be damned. The hapless average Abdullah, with not much to look ahead, has already given up. The perfect recipe for a disaster waiting to happen. Only Allah can save the doomed nation. Makes perfect sense. A nation created in the name of Islam is looking to Allah for deliverance.

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I do not know if Pakistan will learn from its history or not. From what I can make out, Pakistan is increasingly unsafe for everybody, regardless of their religion.

I just want to state once again:- India is by far a safer place for Muslims (amongst people of other religions) than is Pakistan.

The way the so-called ``media`` in Pakistan is keeping quiet about the complete Wana War can only mean one thing - the establishment is losing.

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a song by sting comes to mind: `history will teach us nothing. .`

no. . .we will not learn from our history. we`ve had bad teachers, and we`re not willing to learn ourselves. until both these things change, we will not learn.

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Nice article. The blowback was bound to happen.

And I think this is a good time to say - ``we told you so`` - because this is exactly what indians have been predicting for years.

But pakis didn`t listen. ``Death by thousand cuts`` - that`s was the mantra then. Kill hindus .... drive them out of Kashmir .... implode India from inside - that was the gameplan. For that they could do anything - including a pact with the devil himself.

Well - now is the payback time. good luck pakis.