The Door To The Barracks

HE

Burma, N Korea are wrong examples. They have never depended on US support to survive - they have a different sugar-daddy - China. Anycase, Paki Army, for its faults, is not as homicidal as those regimes.

For downfall of military rule in Pak - withdrawal of US support is a necessary condition, if not the sufficient one. As long as US support is there - no matter you folks do, military would continue to rule. Once US support is gone - the civil society in Pak has a good chance of getting rid of the generals.

So until then - all you folks can do is rant and rave .... blame Bhutto, blame punjabis, castigate MQM or MMA or whoever. Makes no difference.

re: mohar11

You are overestimating Washington`s leverage in Pakistani politics. Lack of US support will only weaken military rule and render it extremely unpopular.

But even a diplomatically isolated, financially constrained and unpopular military ruler can easily stay in power for 10 years or more in Pakistan. If Washington imposes economic or military sanctions to weaken the military ruler, these sanctions would only hurt common Pakistanis. The military`s commercial interests (e.g. Fauji Foundation, etc) generate enough and the defence budget generate enough revenue to sustain the Army.

External pressure just isn`t enough. Consider the case of Burma and North Korea. The military junta ruling these countries has withstood international pressure for decades.

#14, urstruly:
As an Indian I could crow about your statement! But that would be meaningless.
There is nothing ``

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`` about Punjabis. Thinking people in Pakistan have to reconsider the viability of the policies derived from incorrect premises. (This has been historically thrashed out.) They need to correct the underlying conditions. Then the military-civilian equation, growth of sensible democratic development and correct economic policies will fall in their proper places.
As we see in India, Musharraf is making a good start, even if he is in the military.

Pakis , pakis. No wonder you guys are laughing stock of the world.

Do you guys really want to free from Army rule? Then go pray to Uncle Sam. There is no point beating around the bush - Politicians are bad, Punjabis are bad, Sindhis are weak or Bhutto was stupid ... all these are true, but that`s not the reason why your army has succeeded in hijacking your country.

Paki Army rules on American blessings. The source of the power lies in Washington. The day Uncle Sam throws its mangy lap dog - the army rule will be over.

Rest all is BS.

Hi Feroze,
It is futile to expect that mere arguments will force the Army back into its barracks. The fact is that for a country of Pakistan`s size, the Army is too big and too powerful and there are absolutely no checks and balances. The army has tasted absolute power and it has the means to control Pakistan forever. India is too big and too diverse for a mililtary dictator to manage, but Pakistan is just the right size. On top of it, Mushy has cleverly rebranded the Army as a stabilizing influence that can keep the mullahs at bay and make peace with India. Naturally there is external support to keep things the way they are. Internally, Mushy has also cleverly maintained relations with the mullahs and feudals so that they don`t have a strong objection to military rule. Bottom line, the army is firmly in control and has no incentive to back down.

The only possibility is if by some means, the Pak army is divided into 2 or 3 independent armies that protect certain geographical areas. The command at the center could be a loose alignment of the 2 or 3 army chiefs along with the other services and the political leadership. This way, you would have some checks and balances if one army chief becomes too ambitious. This is quite different from other countries, but then, Pakistan is quite different from other countries. Also you have nukes, so you can afford to monkey around with the army structure.

Feroz

Brilliant article... one with effective solutions and a course for us to follow... agree with it... the recognition of army as a player is sadly essential given the present political reality. For a civilian government to continue it will have to respect the power equation in the short term... maybe in the future we will be able to develop some semblance of a legal civilian government albeit with a strong presidency.

The onus of nation-building then falls, sadly and unfortunately, on Khaki-wardi-wallahs... but there is hope... the horrible defeat and humiliation at Kargill has put some sense into them... the old 80s pipe dream of an Islamist federation extending up to the borders of Modern Russia is no more... ISI has been recruiting moderates and secular officers off late, and major restructuring is happening within the army. The army has for all practical purposes stopped imagining itself as glorious Mujahidin pitted against the world... but has now begun to understand its role within the parameters of a standing army of a legal nationstate... this will be a welcome sign ... both for Pakistan and the region around us.


Now hide because gujju is going to ask you your salary... you being in the same profession as me.

Punjabi is basically a gandu quom - both people and politicians. They have supported each and every dictator in the history of Paksitan. I am ashamed of being a Punjabi. It is moment like these when I wish that I were a Hindu from Karnatka or worst a sikh.

Nazar Sahib,
Why do you guys keep on blaming Pubjabiz? Those Pathans and Sindhis weren`t born in Makha either.

Do not blame the institution of military. The military is merely an arm of the society. Deeper issue is the false premise on which Pakistan was proposed, designed and formed. You have to correct the fundamental problem first. That problem, among other things, is the systematically unjust approach to life. Naturally, it can not be superficially corrected. There is need for first recognizing the essential mistake of 1947. Musharraf is trying to make preliminary advances in that direction. Of necessity he has to do it without appearing to be a sellout. That is where his statemsmanship will be tested.

I agree with Nazar saheb about the spinelessness of Punjabi politicians.

Many such politicians are turncoats who need the Army more than the Army needs them. Were Nawaz and Benazir to return to Pakistan, these insecure politicians will dump Musharraf and beg forgiveness of Benazir & Nawaz.

Another group of Punjabi politicians have criminal and corruption cases against them. This group cannot afford to sit on opposition benches (or worse, not get elected at all). Joining the government is the only way these people can get Police, FIA, NAB and the judiciary off their backs. The Chaudhrys of Punjab and Faisal Saleh Hayat belong to this group.

Yet another group of politicians supports the Army out of sheer ambition. These leaders are senior and experienced, but their political careers were deliberately stunted by Benazir and Nawaz. Aftab Sherpao, Sheikh Rasheed and Farooq Leghari belong to this group.

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#1

you make it sound as if it is ONLY the punjabi politicians who are to blame for this. granted the punjabi politicians have been incredibly self-serving, but are politicians from the rest of pakistan so damn clean and blameless? :) i think not.

To answer Mr. Khan`s question, we need to study the fate of 3 military rulers who preceded Musharraf.

Of these three military rulers, only one (i.e. Ayub Khan) resigned office due to intense political pressure and agitation. The other two were forced out of office by abnormal and cataclysmic circumstances.

Yahya left office only after Pakistan Army was defeated in war in East Pakistan.
Zia-ul-Haq had to be assassinated.

It will take a violent and/or cataclysmic event to force Musharraf out of power. Given Pakistan`s nuclear arsenal, it is unlikely that the country will face war in the forseeable future. This only leaves the other option i.e. assassination. This is how Musharraf will go.

Already 3 attempts have been made against him. The Wana operation has created more enemies for Musharraf. So far, only Jihadis are vying for his blood. But if Musharraf refuses to shed the uniform in Dec 2004, some moderates may also join hands with Jihadis to remove Musharraf. Lets not forget that a few army officers were also involved in the last attempt to assassinate him.

I forsee a fatal attack on Musharraf in the next 16 weeks!

``Pakistan`s military-intelligence combine has no desire to allow a normal political process to evolve in the country and will continue to intervene on one pretext or another. The situation might change temporarily in the event of broad international rejection abroad or widespread civilian disenchantment at home. But unless the military arrives at the institutional realization that its intervention has been the reason for destabilizing Pakistan, and allows political institutions to evolve without micro-management, the country will not develop a permanent political system. ``
- Hussain Haqqani in the current issue of Satribune


The above makes lots of sense.

Given the new geo-political realities of the world I don`t think it is anyway possible anymore to send military back to the barracks. The monster has been unleashed with all its might and fury upon the people. Only a foreign invasion which results in accute humiliation of military and its disbandment can free us. Another possibility is that this criminal organization breaks down from its internal pressure. I have a shred of hope, still in me, that there might be some people in this organization who might have a good conscience and who value freedom. A popular revolt will only strengthen the source of this evil which is in Washington to make the life of human beings miserable further. I think the oppression is complete and total now. There is no hope.

The most popular political leader of Pakistan`s history, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, was a minister in the military establishment of Ayub Khan. So was Nawaz Sharif and many others.

It is no hidden secret that in times of turmoil our political leaders have always looked towards the military to step and solve situations of conflict.

Our political culture has not grown in stature and how can we suddenly delete the role of the military and play our destinies into the hands of certain incompetent politicians.

And with regrets, I see no politicians who can take Pakistan out of this quagmire and convince the military to go back to the barracks.