Iran’s Bid for Regional Power

re: hamidm2

Hamidm, Israel was a beacon of democracy when it was a secular state but the politics of religion has made Israel into a theocracy, which is no different from the other despotic regimes in Middle East.

Israel policies are a wild card in the region, because if the intent is to preserve the physical security of Israel itself, it makes no sense to create instability and hostility by recklessly provoking confrontation. The United States maybe doing Israel`s bidding, but realistically speaking, Tel Aviv has not been helping Washington`s cause in the region either. Even if the United States` strategic economic interests demand the monoploy over the region`s oil bearing strata, Israeli policies are actually forcing United States beyond a politically ``fail-safe`` point.

United States cannot fight Israel`s war in perpetuality and soon Israel will have to realize and so will the Arabs, that they may despise the geography of their location and may loathe each other, but they cannot alter their geo-political situation. The problem in the Middle East is that no nation wants to live within its geo-political constraints and wants to unhinge the status quo in its favor. The Arab nations will, and indeed accept, the tilt in the balance of power towards Israel due to their own domestic complusions of maintaing internal power, but their populations will see that as an appeasement of Israel due to American influence and presssure.

This in the long term is even more dangerous to the security of Israel, because it may kill the entire population of West Bank and Gaza and the occupied lands, but even Israel with all its military hardware and the will to kill the Arabs, cannot kill the entire Arab population of the Middle East. In the end, Tel Aviv has to realize that the greater threat to its security comes not from the Arab governments, but from the perceptions of the Arab population and thus, killing for the sake of killing is not going to insure the security of Israel. On the other hand, if the Israelis want to persist in the final solution of the Arab Question, then it must convince the United States to garrison the whole region in order to prevent a popular religious-political revolution in the region, which will topple the pro-United States Arab regimes.

Consequently, the United States` interests are more harmed by tolerating Israeli excesses and the question is; can the United States occupy the whole region of Middle East in order to gurantee Israeli security and pre-empt threats to its own interests as a result of Israeli political actions in the region?

No one can or should suggest that the United States stop supporting Israel, but prudence demands that such a support be linked to a pragmatic calculation of the pros and cons of United States` interests in the region. United States` political and diplomatic myopia in supporting Israel has created a potential cul-de-sac for United States in the region and if the United States` interest is securing the flow of cheap and realible oil supplies, then Israeli policies are actually a liability for the United States, in the Middle East, as far as the strategic interests of United States` political economy is concerned.

Ciao

malik mian,

.......... so now that you have admitted that the OIL theory does not hold any water, we are back to the old zionist conspiracy theory, are we? ............ i am sorry, but i can`t help you much on this one ....... as i have often stated, israel is a shining beacon of light and an outpost of civilization in the dark desert of ignorance and barbarism .......... if america got rid of saddam to reduce the threat to israel, then it was the right thing to do ..............

.... in any case, we need to bomb the madrassas to make sure we don`t have to bomb towns and cities in the future ..................

malik99,

......... i resent being the target of your suicide bombings - we all know that the ummah has not been able to make anything fly since the winged horse (unless, of course, you count the pilots of 9/11) ..........

...... anyhow, i have nothing against the madrassas as long as they stick to the business of teaching the holy sacraments and the ancient grecian art of sexuality, but when they start teaching economics and science and geopolitics it does get a little crazy ..... don`t you think?....... the other day, i heard a perfectly sane man talking about islamic banking and trying to sell me an ``islamic`` mortgage that would cost me a little bit more now but would pay dividends in the hereafter ..........luckily, a fool wasn`t born that day ! ..... the same person had this theory of oil futures that, to be honest, was quite bizzare ........... and maulana fazloo is not the only one who has a bird in his turban - remember sheik bin baz, the grand sheikh of mecca whose namaz-janaza was led by the khalifa himself ? ......... that blind as a bat looney actually went to his grave preaching the flat earth theory ......... no wonder all these theories put out by the great islamic scholars and their sophomoric students don`t have a whole lot of credibility ....................

......... so untill we actually see a flying horse let`s bomb the madrassas ...............

#38 by hamidm2
Notwithstanding your ultra-condescending tone, and also notwithstanding Ataullah, who is one of my fav columnist:
1. Oil is indeed a diminishing resource and fast depleting, and there are no mass-scale substitute--yet.
2. Oil is not an ordinary commodity. Unlike coffee or soya bean, it does drastically affect the global economy. A sudden price escalation could stymie global growth and devastate weak economies.
3. Itz very easy to critisize a postulate, specially by the appellation of a conspiracy theory; but pray tell me what the hell is the US doing in Iraq? Bringing democracy?
4. And what the hell are American troops doing in the former states of Soviet Union? Catching communists? My dear sir, the US forces are there, specially in Georgia and Azerbaijan to protect the oil corridor.

#38 by hamidm2
Notwithstanding your ultra-condescending tone, and also notwithstanding Ataullah, who is one of my fav columnist:
1. Oil is indeed a diminishing resource and fast depleting, and there are no mass-scale substitute--yet.
2. Oil is not an ordinary commodity. Unlike coffee or soya bean, it does drastically affect the global economy. A sudden price escalation could stymie global growth and devastate weak economies.
3. Itz very easy to critisize a postulate, specially by the appellation of a conspiracy theory; but pray tell me what the hell is the US doing in Iraq? Bringing democracy?
4. And what the hell are American troops doing in the former states of Soviet Union? Catching communists? My dear sir, the US forces are there, specially in Georgia and Azerbaijan to protect the oil corridor.

why we should bomb hamidm..............

the whores did not exactly go back to las vegas after the oil orgy of 1980 was over.....some of these whores morphed into intellectuals and visionaries and started advocating on chowk about bombing the world into submission.........

..........oil is certainly a reason...its not THE reason for the focus of whores in the middle east............bush did not send troops into iraq because he just could not live with his guilt that he was enjoying all the freedoms, tax breaks and golf outings whereas the poor iraqis were oppressed in iraq.............

.........oil is a short term goal, until the supplies run out or the alternative fuel arrangements are made..............but there is another long term menace...its called israel....wish it was short term too...but its not.....``redraw the map of middle east`` is a phrase often heard in white house.....why redraw it? is it because Bush feels like using his MBA skills to good use?.......no, it is to be redrawn because israel cannot realistically sustain itself in a sea of hostility in middle east..........saddam`s threat of burning ``half of israel`` in 1990 was his cardinal sin.....his other sin was of supporting palestinians........iran and syria are guilty of the same thing.....at israel`s insistance text books in egypt and saudi arabia are being changed to alter the young minds into thinking that israel is a legitimate entity.......

...........and then the unintended friends of hamidm, known as Southern baptist chrisians want Jesus to come back to earth....they want Jesus now.....and the only way Jesus can be lured back to earth is if all the jews gather in Israel.....and so the work of whores is cut out for them......

..............besides, any power needs room to manuever....and america is doing just that......it needs resources.........and markets...........and whores to work as the propagandists..........

.......such extremist whores should be chased out of this world.........only the moderate whores are welcome........if these extremist ``bomber`` whores want acceptance then they need to moderate their extremist views.......i suggest enrolling in a madrassah under Maulana Fazlur Rehman.......that should pull these whores a bit to the middle from their far right positions.....

.............bomb hamidm!

The soft underbelly of iran is its own disenchanted segment of the population and the stranglehold that the ayatollahs have over all spheres. There would undoubtedly be a circling of the wagon if Iran were to be attacked (a not too distant possibility in Shrub`s second term) but the internal fissures also would lead to a civil-war like situation. It`s essential for iran`s long term viability as an independent nation for there to be internal reforms first.
It all looked so easy 18 months ago when iran was flanked by us military that the march towards tehran would begin once things settled down in iraq. But iran seems to have, at least temporarily, outwitted the US strategic planners and the US is bogged down in iraq.
Iran`s nuclear weapons would uncertainly have a destabilizing effect in the middle east. A nuclearized iran would be emboldened to increase its support for the hezbollah and hamas and keep israel on the defensive. The situation could easily get out of hand.

why we should bomb the madrassas.............

``‘OIL’ is a mesmeric word for Muslims. Along with ‘our’ bomb, it is subconsciously assumed to be the answer, in some mysteriously woolly fashion, to the many woes of the Ummah `` ......... munir ataullah is one muslim who is not blinded by faith and ignorance ............http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_15-9-2004_pg3_2

............... munir is right - just north of calgary a canuck can walk out into his backyard, scoop up a spoonfull of sand, put it in the blender, turn it into oil and still make a profit at $30 a barrel ........... and they have a lot of sand .............. also, if everyone started buying hybrid cars the us could reduce oil imports by 50% and the bedouins would be left pounding sand and drinking oil to chase down their dates ..........of course, it is in the short-term interest of the civilized world to ensure an uninterrupted supply of cheap islamic oil, but in the long-term it doesn`t matter diddly squat ..............contrary to popular iman, oil is just another commodity and is governed by the simple rules of supply and demand .........

........ in the early-mid eighties, when i was in the oil business (what a party!), oil was over $35 a barrel and the north american rig count was over 4400............every cowboy in his ostrich skin boots and hart schnaffer suit was drilling in his neighbour`s backyard, freshly minted harvard mba`s from shady outfits like mckinsey and booze were helping their clients on the road to bankruptcy with their $100 a barrel projections, the annual show in houston was the biggest party on earth with arab sheiks and las vegas prostitutes whopping it up, and midland texas was heaven on earth ............. then what happened? .......... oil dropped to $10, the whores went back to vegas as their customers went back to the holy land, pigeons started to roost in the skyscapers in downtown midland, the banks in houston ended up with more houses than imelda had shoes, the boys from mckinsey moved on to rape and pillage other industries, and the cowboys went into politics ..............just out of curiosity i checked the rig count - it is around 1800, up 26% from last year ............. the party might be starting all over again in texas!

............ so, dear madrassites, oil is like corn and sand, just another commodity governed by the market - the vagararies of texas shysters and saudi mullahs who try to manipulate it has little effect in the long run ....... but as munir says, ``Unfortunately, the great thinkers of the Ummah do not concern themselves with such niceties. With no tradition of independent and critical analysis to help us reappraise altered circumstances, it is our fate to cling to outmoded theories well past their sell-by date.`` .............. and that is why we need to bomb the madrassas - to liberate the ummah from ignorance .......

........... bomb the madrassas!

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hamidm # 29 writes ``.... bomb the madrassas ! ``

.... bomb hamidm
........ can someone put a stop to this dr. bomber........ he sits around in his pyjamas asking for bombings and killings here and there......bombings in madrassas, bombing in iran, bombing in iraq, bombing in saudi arabia.....and can someone also explain to this bomber living in the 12th century that in this well connected information age, even a 13 year old can reason that all these bombings have nothing to do with ``liberation`` of people..... and more to do with the subjugation of people for strategic reasons....if that were not the case then america as a nation should be awared nobel peace prize of 2004....surely russia will not want to stay behind and will invade all its neighbors to win the 2005 peace prize....greater china might go for it in 2006....in this world when the voices of moderation and reason are increasingly being heard from western and muslim societies, extremists like hamidm should be run out of planet earth....which cave they have been living in???...
............ bomb hamidm!

# 29 Hamidn2
You said: - ........ can someone explain to our latest expert in geo-politics and economics why america does not have to control its biggest sources of oil - canada, mexico and nigeria ........ and while we are at it, can somone explain it to our new genius that a barrel of oil is simply a barrel of oil when it hits the market and it doesn`t say ``made in iraq``.......... also iran and iraq did not stop selling oil to the us, it was the us that refused to buy it ......... .......... this oil theroy crap reminds me of the ``hinterlad`` theory and the ``strategic depth`` nonsense that was taught to us by the khaki clad idiots at kakul ............... this points out the basic problem with the ummah - sheer sutpidity aggravated by the lack of good education ............ bomb the madrassas ! ``


Okay, so you are under the impression that the United States actions are more to do with liberation and the war on terror then strategic control. Fair enough, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but its worth pointing out a few facts.
In 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, you will recall a no. of facts. Ill try not to go into too much detail. Firstly, this was a border dispute, Iraq had made its claim of Kuwait at the U.N. in the 1960s. Secondly, Iraq had just finished a war with Iran - a war supported by Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Usa and other western countries. The Iraqi economy was in tatters, Saddam appeared in the Arab league and pleaded (his speech is famous because he actually brought tears to his eyes) that his country is dying, and to maintain oil production at a certain level so as to help revenues and had asked the Arab nations to help cancel off some debt. Some countries agreed, Kuwait secretly ignored it, pumping more oil (a lot from Iraqi oil fields on the border) , costing Iraq 14 billion in revenues. And so on so forth.
The invasion produced many reconicilliatory efforts, yet America ignored reasonable peace demands (iraq promised to leave Kuwait, if Israel returned to 67 borders, and even last minute deals with the Soviet Union were ignored) instead the U.S. went with the rhetoric that they will not be another Chamberlain, this idea was pushed by a certain Dick Cheney then in the Pentagon. The invasion presented them with a great oppurtunity and they took it.
Kuwait paid for the war, and lets not forget, the U.S. it created 6 millitary bases in the Arab world. in the years proceeding the war, the United States literally owns the Kuwait oil industry - infact their companies earn more in oil revenues than the Kuwaitis! Because the Arabs lack the technology (and still dont do f... all about it)

Afghanistan in 2001 was a legitamate war in my book - yet it also presented them with the pipelines that are being built through several nations in this region.
Iraq does not own its oil industry my friend, it now belongs to the Americans. by putting in place their own choices as leaders, the Americans have signed countless contracts with the Iraqi regime to rebuild Iraq - whos paying - the Iraqi oil will pay, and the American economy benefits. This is the same way America came out of its great depression during and after World War 2, they rebuilt Germany and Japan - and in addition, their countless loans - commonly known as the marshall plan - literally helped build a continent.

Just a few interesting thoughts....I think its unfair to say that the U.S. is the great bastion of democracy - this is not about democracy its about strategic goals.
Lastly, by saying all the above, I recognize great discrepancies and unjustness in American foreign policy, yet I do not believe in extremism to combat this gap. I honestly believe that the Muslim world with all its great potential should build itself up once again - not by emulating the West - but by taking an honest look at our track record, histories and present dillemas and by working together to bring about better days in the future.
Let me know what you think....

#29 by hamidm2
Dear Hamidm2,
I make no claims to be an expert or a genuis, I commented on an issue according to my lights; as you have an equal right to comment on or critize my views. So let us eschew snide and derogtory tune and have a mature discussion.
Now coming down to the specific points you raised:
1. Yes the US has got access to the Canadian oil, its own oil in Alaska and other sources; not to mention the ecological and cultural havoc the Western oil companies are creating in Nigeria.
2. The US interest in Darfur/ Sudan imbroglio is due to oil.
3. The dispatch of the US forces in Ivory Coast with the French collaboration, ostensibly for peace-keeping chores was actually for oil.
4. In the aftermath of 9/11, the US has stationed forces even in D`joubiti and Equatorial Guinea, only for oil.
5. Oil is depleting fast and is expected to last only uptill 2025 ( at the present estimates).
6. The US is not touching its own oil, and keeping it as a reserve.
7.The Chinese and the Indian economies are both expected to overtake the American in the next 25 years. Oil is the life-blood of the modern economy; therefore retaining access to the diminishing oil resources and denying the same to the potential competitors is the name of the game.
8. From the historical point of view, after the 1973, oil embargo, the US decided to physically control the oil at the resource, so as to obviate a recurrence of 1973, which was highly devastating to the US economy. The string of geopolitical events including the Iran-Iraq War, the two US-led wars against Iraq, including the stationing of the US troops in Saudi Arabia are the result of that American ambition and the geopolitical dimension of the US energy policy initiated by James Baker about a quarter century ago,; and now implemented with blind gusto by the present neo-con junta in Washington.
#28 Ralph
Ralph,
We are all here was learning through mutual dialogue and exchange of views. And we all are ignorant, thatz why we need to learn from each other

---

if only some of our more exuberant collegues should realize it!
You comments are more than welcome.

So Long

#29 by hamidm2
Dear Hamidm2,
I make no claims to be an expert or a genuis, I commented on an issue according to my lights; as you have an equal right to comment on or critize my views. So let us eschew snide and derogtory tune and have a mature discussion.
Now coming down to the specific points you raised:
1. Yes the US has got access to the Canadian oil, its own oil in Alaska and other sources; not to mention the ecological and cultural havoc the Western oil companies are creating in Nigeria.
2. The US interest in Darfur/ Sudan imbroglio is due to oil.
3. The dispatch of the US forces in Ivory Coast with the French collaboration, ostensibly for peace-keeping chores was actually for oil.
4. In the aftermath of 9/11, the US has stationed forces even in D`joubiti and Equatorial Guinea, only for oil.
5. Oil is depleting fast and is expected to last only uptill 2025 ( at the present estimates).
6. The US is not touching its own oil, and keeping it as a reserve.
7.The Chinese and the Indian economies are both expected to overtake the American in the next 25 years. Oil is the life-blood of the modern economy; therefore retaining access to the diminishing oil resources and denying the same to the potential competitors is the name of the game.
8. From the historical point of view, after the 1973, oil embargo, the US decided to physically control the oil at the source, so as to obviate a recurrence of 1973, which was highly devastating to the US economy. The string of geopolitical events including the Iran-Iraq War, the two US-led wars against Iraq, including the stationing of the US troops in Saudi Arabia are the result of that American ambition; and the geopolitical dimension of the US energy policy initiated by James Baker about a quarter century ago; and now implemented with blind gusto by the present neo-con junta in Washington.
#28 Ralph
Dear Ralph,
We are all here was learning through mutual dialogue and exchange of views. And we all are ignorant, thatz why we need to learn from each other

---

if only some of our more exuberant collegues should realize it!
You comments are more than welcome.

So Long

hamidm mian!!

One must appreciate your dedication to the USA. You speak more eloquently than any well-motivated red-blooded apple-pie eating American from Sattelite Town, Rawalpindi that I have ever met. Bush and Kerry must never forget their Sattelite Town votebase......

But why are you bent upon causing trouble for poor American soldiers? There are a couple of things you should consider:

1. Superpowers do very well in taking out secular westernised leaders and regimes, in Muslim countries. But they tend to get their butts kicked by maulvis. Everytime a superpower invades a Muslim country, the end result is the superpower running away with its tail between its legs, the seculars migrating to Freemont, California. And the maulvis taking over.

The Soviets invaded Afghanistan. They killed 1 million Afghanis. But the Mujs kicked their asses. And eventually the Taliban ended up taking over Afghanistan. American bombed the same Talibans who were its allies. However, now the Taliban are again preparing to take over.

America invaded Iraq. The secular Saddam fell like a deck of cards. But now the maulvis with their molotov cocktails have completely destroyed the reputation of the kevlar-clad, mic-equipped M-16-armed 400 billion dollar mighty US Army. To the point that West Point trained American Generals have to negotiate with madrassa-trained 30 year old Sadr in one city, and his uncle 80 year old Sistani in another.

The same thing will happen if the Americans invade Iran. The maulvis will kick ass, and then strengthen their control on Iran.

So in a superpower vs. maulvi contest, I have learnt to put my money on the maulvi.........

2. I have some acquitences in the US military. And they are under a lot of family pressures, due to Iraq. One poor American Lt. Col. went to Iraq to serve his country. The guy has had a tour of over a year, fighting in limited air-conditioning in the deserts of Baghdad.

His wife, in her mid-thirties is quite a sight: The face of Cindy Crawford and the body of Anna Nicole. Well, lo and behold, while Colonel Sahib was away fighting, Begum Sahib just could not control herself any longer. Her threshold of control, like most Western liberated lolitas, did not go beyond six months. So somewhere along the line, Begum Sahib, decided to, as we say politely in military-speak, ``climb the turret, cruise the missile, ride the sidewinder, dock the submarine`` (if you know what I mean).

Now it is one thing to go to cool forests of Vietnam, get beat, and then return to protesting students who spit on you. All soldiers can handle that. But it is something else to go fight an unpopular war in the blazing heat of Arabistan, against fanatic maulvis. And then return home, after a year to find out that your significant other decided to, as we say politely in military-speak, ``climb the turret, cruise the missile, ride the sidewinder, dock the submarine`` (if you know what I mean).

This is the main problem facing the US soldiers, who have been gone for months to years. Sadr and Sistani being secondary problems. So if you keep up your cheerleading and rhetoric for an attack on Iran also, after Iraq, I am worried that the above-mentioned Colonel Sahib and his Sargents may track you down on Murree Road or near Ghakkar Plaza as you are eating Karim kay somosay, and have their way with you. And we wouldn`t want that to happen, would we.............So I suggest you may want to reconsider being holier than the rabbi, and neo-er than the neo-cons........

P.S. There is something to be said for the chained and suppressed lolitas of Pakistan, who spend decades waiting aimlessly for thier husband to return, when informed he is missing in action. The stupid ladies never even look at another man for thirty years. But, at least, if through some miracle, their husband does return, the poor guy will not have to go through what Colonel Sahib had to face.................