Can Pakistan Work?

There is, indeed, an elitist group running Pakistan. If one digs below the surface, one discovers that the Generals, the feudals, the rich, the civil servants, the college-educated expats are all either directly related to each other, or are indirectly members of the same club.

All of us on Chowk, including Hoodbhoy, belong to the above group. Satistically we are all within the wealthiest and empowered 1% or less of the society. I always find it surprising that we keep bleming others, and not ourselves.

There is, interestingly, only one group that represents the poor of Pakistan. That is the maulvis. The lower poor non-Chowk class of Pakistan seems to now have only one outlet to voice its anger.

If people really want to sideline the mullah, they need to somehow or the incorporate the poor into their political and social agendas. I don`t know of any group that is willing to do that. PPP and PML certainly aren`t. The more middle class and lower-middle class the Army continues to become, the more it will align with the religious parties also (not due to ideological similaraties, but due to economic similarities).

The future of Pakistan will not be a fight between secularism and maulvism, as so many people on this site, incorrectly keep highlighting. It will be a fight between the economic haves and haven-nots. The haves will be pushing their agenda through the more secular parties like PPP and PML. While the have-nots will be pushing their agenda through parties that happen to be Islamic. The military will be divided, with the ORs and lower officer ranks siding with the maulvis, and the Generals siding with the secular side.......

Let`s see who wins........

#20 SAC,
Good analysts follow the Research Methodology exercising empericism with a nuetrality. As head of one of the biggest research organisation of the world, Cohen should have excercised some nuetrality and that is what I contest.

Now why some foreigners write? Your rationale is that we Pakistanis are not capable to write about ourselves. The quality of some comments even on this page, indicates that there are many who can and do. Have you ever heard of Hafeez Malik, Bilal Hashmi, Gardezi, Syed, Iftikhar Malik, Tariq Rauf, Dr. Askari, Dr. Siddiqua and many others. Just pick up some of the centre page articles of the Urdu dailies. They make a lot of sense.

Cohen represents a school of writers with a mayopic view of Pakistan and this theme has been consistent in all his writings. In the end he always plays safe by coming up with inconclusive and open ended conclusions. I wonder if he does any sampling or modelling while doing his research. I could pick up hundreds of indicaters in the US society and come up with a conspiracy theory that US is about to collapse. But would it stand the test of an apriori, let alone demarcation or epistomology.

Ills in Pakistani civil society and the ruling elites are all well known to us. We dont need a Hoodbouy to paste articles written by others legitimised by a few sentences of his own. Hoodbouy does not even belong to the class of writers who represent the consience of the nation.I suggest he confine himself to Physics or follow the course of the likes of Imran Khan, Ibrar ul Haq or Edhi and show some concrete performance.

I pity Pakistanis, who cannot hide their glee when they read such articles. Why dont they come back to Pakistan and begin a vibrant reformist movement?

Cheerios

Ref jang #31

[tahmed, why is your cartoon showing a sikh? should it not be a bald bania?]

The bania is busy selling the army rations. He won`t be enrolling in the army.

Sikhs are a good representation of the Indian Army as they are over-represented in the Army compared to their population.

It could even be an Indian Muslim, for all you know! Just look at both figures; they are dressed identically.

Romair: ``The future of Pakistan will not be a fight between secularism and maulvism, as so many people on this site, incorrectly keep highlighting. It will be a fight between the economic haves and haven-nots. The haves will be pushing their agenda through the more secular parties like PPP and PML. While the have-nots will be pushing their agenda through parties that happen to be Islamic. The military will be divided, with the ORs and lower officer ranks siding with the maulvis, and the Generals siding with the secular side....... ``

Do you have any clue about who the maulvis are? Ask their big boss Qazi Hussein Ahmed whose son is happily studying in the US. Or fat Mullah Fazloo - check with him how he got so fat, and why he fancies those royal robes.

As for the poor, they are not so stupid and understand better than you what the mullahs are about. That is why they always gave the mullahs humiliating defeats in elections, and the mullahs came to power only because the generals found it convenient. Having been on chowk so long, one would think these simple undeniable facts would have sunk into you. I think the name Captain Clueless that your good friend Arjun uses for you is not entirely out of place.

ferozek,

``money is re-flowing into Pakistan and a majority of investments being made in Pakistan is by Pakistanis themselves``........... but isn`t most of this investment in real estate because of the huge returns compared to the measely 1-2% we have been getting on dollar accounts abroad and the floundering stock markets ?........... i speak from personal experience - i know a lot of people, including me, who have bought plots, but i don`t know anyone, other than the satay baz, who has recently bought stock in the two companies of pakistan (ptcl and hubco!).......... on the other hand there are a lot of pakistani entrepreneurs who are hedging their bets by investing their money in dubai and canada ............

Here is excerts from an op-ed in today`s Nation daily by Husain Haqqani....interesting read.

[The transient nature of the stability provided by military rule in Pakistan can best be understood by revisiting some of the positive assessments of previous military rulers made while their control seemed unassailable. A secret CIA analysis of the situation in Pakistan in March 1983, almost six years after General Ziaul Haq`s 1977 military coup, which has since been declassified, begins with the words: ``President Ziaul Haq faces no substantial challenge to his rule for now. [He] has proved a shrewd political survivor and could buy more time for his regime if the economy continues to grow, the opposition remains divided, and the political initiative remains in his hands.``

The CIA analysis goes on to say: ``Zia`s authoritarian regime has avoided overly repressive policies, though it has dealt firmly with organized demonstrations. It has given the country nearly six years of domestic stability and substantial economic progress. Zia has also been able to deal effectively with external threats. He has stood up to the Soviets on Afghanistan, while keeping channels open to a negotiated settlement; he has improved relations with India; and he has succeeded in gaining major economic aid and arms assistance from the United States. The President ultimately depends on the Army to remain in power. Zia rules through a closed highly centralised circle of military and civilian advisers. The Pakistan Peoples Party, the party of late Prime Minister Bhutto, and the strongest group in the MRD, remains the most popular party in Pakistan but it lacks strong organisation and is factionalised. It depends on a dispersed constituency of the rural and urban poor that is best mobilised at the polls.``

Replace Zia with Musharraf, substitute Soviets with terrorists and read ARD in place of MRD and the same analysis can probably pass off as a recent account. One is forced to ask, what has changed in Pakistan in the 23 years since this intelligence estimate was written, and can a nation going through the same motions once again be considered a nation making progress? Regime survival and the appearance of stability is not the same thing as national consolidation. Professional economic management, aided by external inputs, under General Ziaul Haq resulted in an annual economic growth rate of 6 percent. ]

Now once again some people are cheering an externally manufactured 6 percent projected growth rate based on influx of aid, for the first time in a decade.

the `stability` of Ziaulhaque regime should remind individuals with insatiable ambitions -- not to take themselves too seriously....

...as Ismail Meeruthy would say: sub thaath paRaa ruh javegaa jub laad chalay gaa bunjara...

Musharraf has put all his eggs in ONE basket -- called Musharraf -- a kick and the whole outfit will Devolute to absolute zero.......so delegate, -- diversify, -- decentralize and disappear......and live for ever......

It is difficult to detach oneself from where one belongs. But if that can be done, what Cohen says is mostly true - though it may be painful. It is no different than what Pakistani media keeps saying day in and day out.

War on terror has, in many ways, been a blessing in disguise. It has postponed two crucial issues that the international community finds uncomfortable - Democracy & Nuclear.(besides radical Islam)

Might as well use this borrowed time before it is late. Democracy is a self-inflicted injury and Army needs to recoil itself back into the Cantonements. As for the Nuclear issue, the only acceptable solution to the world community may be sound safeguards under the SAARC regional umbrella.

there is no alternate to open genuine politics to resolve national issues. Musharraf needs to get out of that fear of Benazir & Nawaz. Let the people throw them out of office.

nhk

nasah #39 true. as habib jalib put it:

Shakhs tum say pahlay yahan takht nasheen tha
usko bhi khuda honai peh itna hee yaqeen tha

Translation (although with something lost in the translation):

The ruler before you
Was also sure he was God

=== Interact Filtered ===
view this users filtered interacts

What is Brown Bum`s contribution to the Western Sciences??

Siphar!!!
And these brown bums in all their hypocricy claim that Einstein and Newton have flinched their theses from `their` great traditions!!

It is time these rascals admitted that it is their hypocritical tradition that does not give them the humility to admit the contribution of Western Civilization in elevating them to their existing statuses. They deserve to live in the tents they so admire.

It is hard to make out where Stephen ends and PH starts in this review but the central question remains: Can Pakistan work?
It appears to me that PH has put words in Stephen’s mouth as Stephen’s book does not suggest anything like that. All Stephen did was to bring out some legitimate concerns that US academia has about Pakistan. Some of his analysis is reasonable but most of it as pointed out by other here pure baloney.
I think there are four major elements for Pakistan that determine whether the country is workable or not.
1. Geography 2.Political system 3. Culture 4. Economics.

Most of the US academician and some Pakistani analyst including PH and some on the left, when analyzing Pakistan and it problems, base their scrutiny on two models. First, Pakistan’s uniqueness as it was carved out of another country. Secondly, the idea behind its creation that resulted in another unique geographical feature that was a rarity.
These truly are difficult models to work with and often analyst jump to conclusions based on where they stand ideologically themselves.

Pakistan was not a workable geographical entity in 1947 and most of the analysts were proven right when Bengal separated. But once Bengal went its way, doubts in analysts mind about “Can Pakistan work” geographically, should have vanished. But it seems that most of the analysts hung on to their theses that are well over thirty years old now. These analyst including PH and Stephen fail to take cognizant of the changed Geographical situation of Pakistan after 1971, where it is apparent that it is a geographically integrated country and chances of its becoming undone geographically, are next to nothing. In fact, Pakistan is geographically more integrated than its two neighbors; India and Afghanistan. The infrastructure that connects a country geographically is in shambles or in pitiful state in India. Afghanistan is still in Stone Age and barring a few cities Iran too is not better off.
Ironically, only country that can hurt Pakistan geographically is India and we know it just does not have political will and enough nuke muscles to do that.

Before I take up political side of “Can Pakistan work”, let me say that culturally too Pakistan is much more integrated than any other neighboring country. All four provinces share similar Feudal Culture (good or bad) with language difference being most prominent. Personally, I would like to see all four Languages becoming national languages of Pakistan but in reality Urdu has pretty much become a language that does bring cultural cohesiveness to Pakistan.

The thorn on Pakistan’s side is its political integrity and that I think it is a legit question to ask whether Pakistan can work politically?

Again the uniqueness of its creation gives rise to doubts for many analysts. Two elements came together in creation of Pakistan. The economic demands of minority religion (Muslim) followers and the desire for political and economic autonomy of some border provinces in India that happened to have a Muslim majority population. The ruling feudals of 47 have given way to the army and the religious minority has given control to the idiots but these two basic elements of the compromise that resulted in Pakistan still provide the idealogical substance to Pakistani political system.

Pakistan is not a democratic country partly for the reasons put forward by Sameer in his post # 28 but largely because Pakistan army has acquired so much interest in Pakistan that moving that behemoth from power would take another army of equal size.

Can Pakistan not work without democracy?

The whole thrust of PH and to some extent Stephen is that Pakistan may not work w/o democracy.
Is that really so?

Now I am in favor of democracy and civilian rule in Pakistan and I believe that there are more benefits of democracy than the oligarchic power structure that we have in Pakistan.
But the argument can be made that the western democracy is a representative system for the middleclass and it does not represent the majority. Poor classes are there to vote but the wars of ideas, which are contested in a democracy, have their origins and roots in Middleclass ideological struggles and have nothing to do with the common man.
The clear reason that democracy fails to take hold in Pakistan is that the growing middleclass in Pakistan, still is not convinced that democracy is something that would help it in controlling the country. Therefore, the middleclass cedes the authority to run the country to the elite and the army has taken the mantle to represent the elite and the Middleclass in Pakistan as Stephen and PH point out. This does show a weakness that barely one percent controls the country but that is only because the other 25-30 percent middleclass is not convinced that it can take over the country yet.

PH points out that Stephen is advocating “This latter goal points to the need for broad political reform in Pakistan to build responsible civilian leadership”.
Easier said then done.

As the middleclass in Pakistan progresses and economic and political benefits become important and worth fighting for, a responsible civilian leadership would emerge. Until then, honestly, there is no chance that Pakistan will have democracy. Pakistan never had a civilian government w/o military’s blessings and if in future current political leaders BB or NS ever take over in Pakistan that too would be with the help of the army and not by defying the army.

In the current world no country has disappeared because of poor economic conditions. Pakistan will continue to work even when economic progress is slow or even non existent.
So Stephen and PH, despite your doomsday scenarios Pakistan will continue to work mostly and limp occasionally.

HP
//...In the current world no country has disappeared because of poor economic conditions..//

True. Countries breakup mostly because of ethnic problems. But sometimes poor economic conditions add fuel to existing ethnic problems which may work towards break of the cohesion of a country sooner or later.

So to say that pakistan will just limp along no matter what the economic conditions are - is fraught with risks.

M.B.Z.Isphahani #30

Thank you for the explanation. Best regards.



Yasirz and Manto

Mr. M.B.Z.Isphahani doesn`t say anything. He follows a standard but very effective rhetorical technique. This rhetorical technique consists of throwing in button-pushing words amid paragraphs of 1) utter, disjointed nonsense - as in his case or 2) endless mind-numbing verbiage - as in the case of hobbyty and sometimes romair. The button-pushing words Mr. Isphahani uses constantly are UK, USA, RSS, Advani, Naipaul, Jew, Bajpai, Hindu, Zionist, Hitler etc.

The strategy works very simply. The few who can think dismiss him as a cynical fool or a dishonest moron. The rest, a much larger population, try to search for something deep in his garbage. Among the latter there are some readers who also implicitly hold that most Islamic problems can be blamed on UK, USA, RSS, Advani, Jew, Bajpai, Zionist, etc.. Using gobbledygook, Mr. Isphahani reinforces in the minds of the latter readers the vague and soothing impression that another issue has been explained, even if there is no clear idea how, by blaming the above-mentioned anti-Islam forces. Once again, the problem is not within, but without. Perfection within, evil outside. Glory within, chicanery outside.

This is demogoguery at its worst, but not unexpected given where Mr. Isphahani
is coming from and what he represents.

Can pakistan work?

Only if the pakis make some effort to make it work. Pakis need some serious reorientation in various departments. First thing to do is stop dancing in the streets whenever Army taked over the country. Second - realize that there is no such thing as ``ideology of pakistan``. Third - remember, Muhammad was a trader. So trade!

Nothing succeeds like economic success!! That`s the ultimate salvation.

=== Interact Filtered ===
view this users filtered interacts