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Can Pakistan Work?

Pervez Hoodbhoy October 19, 2004

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#65 Posted by HisExcellency on October 20, 2004 9:34:33 pm
#48 by nikki7777

+++
it is only a matter of time before the indian military juggernaut flexes its` muscle......
+++

You are applying conventional calculus to a non-conventional military equation. The biggest variable missing from your equation is the number of nuclear weapons that both countries exist. According to Jane`s Defence Weekly, Pakistan has 50-110 nukes whereas India has 55-95. This implies a parity in nukes between India and Pakistan.

A nuclear armed state with a first-strike policy does not need to match the conventional capabilities of its opponent. For all practical purposes, India`s military dominance over Pakistan has been over ever since the 1980s!!

Pakistan does not face any external threat. All dangers are in fact internal (e.g. Islamist revolution, sectarian/ethnic violence, etc.)
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#66 Posted by yasirz on October 20, 2004 9:34:33 pm
Oh yeah thats the word i was looking for....you didnt have the TATA to cross over..thanks.(sorry i can be really corny sometimes).

Actually its that and the Ghauri angel that hoverth on thou as well.

To Busharraf critics...he may be a stooge,he may a dicatator,he may `rape` the constitution but he has however resusciated that unholy b itch known as the pakistan economy.Be grateful. Enjoy the trickles of progress.Now if you`ll excuse me i have to go watch that bufoon on aalim online.
later









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#67 Posted by Urstruly on October 21, 2004 5:04:39 am

HE # 65

You make a compelling case that the manpower strength of Armed forces can now be safely reduced below 100K from the existing 600K.


Naqshbandi # 63

I must disagree; unfortunately, the words of Tariq Ali proved to be prophetic and Pakistan did not survive. What we have now is just the left over remanants of Pakisatn that our founding fathers left for us. Na Pak fauj and people like hoodbhoy work very hard, day and night to dismantel what is left of it. They broke it first, they will break what is left of it. Instead of feeling good that we still have a glass half full we should worry about saving what is left as half empty.
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#68 Posted by Inquirer on October 21, 2004 6:19:22 am
#63, Naqshbandi:
Even though I am not, most of the Pakistanis see me at least as a ``naysayer.`` Hence your post may be applicable to me.
I am pleased to see the rationality of your second paragraph. Though for a believer - in contrast to a rationalist - in the religion even the first paragraph is quite sensible.
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#69 Posted by BruceLee on October 21, 2004 6:19:23 am

harimau

[Sikhs are a good representation of the Indian Army as they are over-represented in the Army compared to their population.]

You forget the most basic thing: The leader of India today is a Sikh.


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#70 Posted by Siddiqua on October 21, 2004 6:19:23 am
I have been remiss in not acknowledging the kind thoughts expressed for me by friends here. My thanks and apologies for this late acknowledgment.




Education has been mentioned in the context of Pakistan`s future often.

It is interesting, and quite educative to note the very many different views expressed here regarding the schooling of Pakistan`s future.

Pakistan, I believe, has never had an education policy. Ad hocism there was, there is, and if the past is any mirror of the future, there will be.

One of the basic flaws in the vision [in fact it is lack of it] of educationists in Pakistan has been the undue stress on what they call higher education.

Enrollment of children at primary level is still abysmally low. Quality of teachers, at all levels leaves a lot to be desired [The desire most often is to give them a swift, sharp and decisive kick somewhere below the smalls of their backs.]

All along there has also been an undue and veritably obscene emphasis on the provision of hardware - buildings, furniture, etc., etc., [designed, as all of us know, to enrich even more corrupt and grasping contractors] whereas the imperative has been the development of appropriate software -- curricula and the teachers who are to be vehicles for their teaching.

It is ludicrous, and in a way tragic, to see children of the age of six and seven toting around satchels weighing somewhere around 20 lbs. full of around a dozen textbooks and almost two dozen copybooks. Class? Three, four. Subjects? English, Urdu, Islamiyat, Mathematics [that`s what they call it!] Social Studies, General Science, Qurani Qaeda, Sindhi . . .

There are English medium schools I have visited in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad, where the learned Principals cannot speak English - where English is taught in stilted Urdu.

Urdu happens to be the mother tongue of a small fraction of Pakistanis.

Why not not teach the basic learning skills and the 3R`s to the children in their mother tongues.

What they are creating is polyglot mongrels who are neither imparted any cognitive skills nor a love of learning per se. The whole benighted system hinges upon deposition and prescription. Rote.

Within this quagmire there flourish so called ``islands of excellence`` where, at hefty prices, the sons and daughters of the filthy rich are given ``modern, enlightened achooling`` and sent forth into the world as half baked potatoes neither fit to be consumed nor used as seeding. Befittingly, most are chewn and spat out.

How much does Pakistan spend on primary and secondary education? That is one indication of the importance attached to creating a learning society.

P. S.

We have had a general as the vice chancellor the Punjab university, and now we have another general, and the ex-chief of the ISI to boot, as the Federal Minister of Education in Pakistan.

Hail Caeser!

And to hell with the awaam and their future!








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#71 Posted by anil on October 21, 2004 6:21:30 am
Siddiqua (#56) on October 20, 2004 6:34pm PT

``anil

I would be indebted if you elaborate how you have reached the conclusion that Pakistan army is more secular secular in nature than Pakistani society at large.``

My knowledge of Pakistan is limited to reading essays and interactions here on Chowk, and private discussions with my Pakistani friends. I believe that I read Romair`s interactions here at Chowk about Pakistani army being more secular. I stand corrected if this is not the case.

My more important point is taking Pakistani Army, the bull by its horn may not be right strategy for currently weaker democratic forces. They should instead consider democratizing, and opening economic, social structure, and educational institutions to civilians as well. Even separation of Church and State doctrine can wait, if religion plays a very important part in the daily lives.

The distribution of wealth through market forces, social awareness will increase, better education will become more accessible where Army must compete with civilians for benefiting from anything that is not related to defending the country. Also civilians will have access to facilities which are limited to Army only, and when armed force personnel come out to run mainstream civilian industries, the civilians will not loose out.

India mobilized non-confrontational approach to gain independence from more powerful British. I do not know of other dictator run countries of almost 200 million people today. Soviet Union is long gone, and Communist China is changing too. There can be no doubt that Pakistan can not sustain its growth by relying on foreign educated handfuls, and its military for the leadership. The alternative for military to maintain its control, would be to limit Nation`s growth to suit the growth of Pakistan`s military. Besides it must allocate funds to non-productive sectors of economy as well to maintain its command and control in all spheres. It is impractical. Such command controlled economy and societies collapsed elsewhere in late 1980s, because such growth models are not sustainable.

The question is whether political institutions evolve to become democratic and civilian first, or later. India is a wrong model for Pakistan, where politics became more inclusive first through democratic institutions.

Anil
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#72 Posted by ferozk on October 21, 2004 7:46:30 am
re: hamidm2 # 37

Yes, most of this investment was in real estate. As far as I can determine, the stock market is still considered a more risky proposition than a real estate venture However, there is investment in private telecommunications companies by Pakistanis as joint partners with Arabs, but PTCL is a non-starter because no one wants to deal with its financial mess. A lot of investment, which is flowing into Pakistan is in television and cable channels. A good indication of PTCL`s privatization will be the privatization of KESC promised for December of 2004.

Again, real estate market was rattled by the Bharia Town scam and since then, there is a slight movement towards the stock market and the result has been that the property prices have come down and are expected to decrease by nearly 10-15 percent. Real estate has been always considered as the traditional ``safe bet`` in Pakistan and it remains to be seen how much money is going to be pulled out of it and re-invested in the stock markets.

As to investment in Canada and Dubai, it is true that is being done by Pakistanis. It is not a question of a safe bet, as much as it is need to circumvent the trade laws and seek tax loop holes as means of increasing the profit margins.

Please note, that the people who are investing in Pakistan have the money and required political clout to buy influence in Pakistan and get over the bureaucratic red tape. There is a lot of insider information benefitting people and as a result, Pakistan is presently seeing a lot of monopolies being created, which are controlling the market. In a different context, Pakistan is experiencing the days of the Robber Barons and there is a lack of governmental authority to regulate the exploitation, which comes from such a business practice.

There is a lot of money being invested in construction in Pakistan also. So there is a marked inflow investment in Pakistan in areas other than the real estate. Also, there is a significant investment in defence bonds, which give a high rate of return and most of the military`s money is invested in these bonds.

I hope this answers your question.

Ciao
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#73 Posted by nikki7777 on October 21, 2004 8:03:34 am
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#74 Posted by mumbaikar on October 21, 2004 8:03:34 am
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#75 Posted by jang on October 21, 2004 8:03:34 am
anil

``I believe that I read Romair`s interactions here at Chowk about Pakistani army being more secular.``

this is very funny. romair has spent many millions of ascii characters grappling with the word secular. he gets nightmares about seculars and being secular and has bought all the thesauruses from Arabic to Zulu about this word.
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#76 Posted by harimau on October 21, 2004 9:22:30 am
#70 by BruceLee #70

{harimau

[Sikhs are a good representation of the Indian Army as they are over-represented in the Army compared to their population.]

You forget the most basic thing: The leader of India today is a Sikh.}

You forget the most basic thing: Manmohan Singh is a neutered Sikh.
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#77 Posted by mumbaikar on October 21, 2004 9:22:30 am
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#78 Posted by HisExcellency on October 21, 2004 10:28:18 am
#75 by nikki7777

+++
Remember, last year Iraq could have been obliterated with one nuclear weapon dropped by the US and all would have been well.Right??.Wrong
+++

I don`t disagree with this statement. American goal was to control Iraq, not destroy it. You can`t change the Iraqi regime, take control of Iraqi oil industry, deweaponize Iraq, democratize Iraqi society at gunpoint, run jails, etc. without troops on the ground.

+++
I end with half a quote from a defense analyst on CNN who said, ``the sheer force of their(India`s) numbers will do it for them``.``Nuclear`` has to be backed up with ``conventional``.Otherwise no dice, baby
+++

The two militaries (India, Pakistan) have different mandates.
Indian Army has an offensive mandate that includes invading another country, and administering it. Without a large army, India could never invade East Pakistan in 1971 or send troops to Sri Lanka in the 1980s.

Pakistani Army has just one mandate: defense. It is not expected to invade India, run jails in Sri Lanka or conduct elections in Afghanistan. A small, well trained, well equipped and nuclearized military is all that Pakistan needs to neutralize the offensive capability of India`s larger military.

When it comes to defense, size does not matter. Size matters only when you are trying to conquer territory and occupy.

BTW, that ``lock and key`` statement about Pakistani nukes is just a bad joke. If America had access to Pakistani nukes, the Americans wouldn`t waste a day in shipping these out of Pakistan, just like they shipped out the nuclear materials from Libya. You don`t control anything, until it is actually in your possession.
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#79 Posted by nikki7777 on October 21, 2004 11:24:31 am
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#80 Posted by mohar11 on October 21, 2004 11:24:32 am
74
Excerpt from the daily times article
//...Instead of inculcating in our children and youth a sense of inter-religious harmony, tolerance and respect, our textbooks teach contempt for others and preach holy war...//

Inter-religious harmony? Tauba, Tauba - what is the author smoking? This is blasphemy, utterly disgusting!!

What is this world coming to - where muslims have to tolerate Kafirs. That`s against koranic teachings anyway - kafirs were supposed to be ambushed and killed, isnt it? At least that`s what the mullhas tell us. I mean - I am confused, how can you respect a kafir - they are like hateful hindus ... and conniving jews.

Man - I am telling you, Allah(pbuh) is angry with us - otherwise this sort of things would never happen.

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