The Baluchistan Issue

re:#96 by nangaparbat
Sorry for a late reply to your post.
I do not wish Pak should ever go through a 1971 like situation which would not be in India`s interest either but there are some signs that this is starting to happen in Baluchistan. At least some signposts are visible.
For any insurgency or freedom struggle (eg tamil struggle in Srilanka, Kashmiri struggle for more freedom in India, Bangladeshi struggle in the past), some conditions need to be met:
1. There should be a large population that sees freedom from oppression as the only way. In case of Tamil militancy in Srilanka, Tamils in that country felt totally alienated and subjugated by the majority Sinhala population. Ditto for Bangladesh. Has the disenchantment of the Baluchs reached a critical mass? I am not sure.
2. There is a need for an ideology or a distinct culture/language/religion with which the disenchanted population strongly identify with. In case of Tamils, it was their language. Ditto for Bangladeshis. For Kashmiris, it started out as ``Kashmiriyat`` but has gotten more complicated after miltancy invaded the valley. Does a seperate identity exist for Baluchs? I think it does.
3. A strong, popular leadership which can give a political shape to the struggle. Such a leadership existed with Mujibur Rehman in 1971. There is lack of strong leadership among Kashmiris and Baluchs. I am not sure if V.Prabhakaran can be called a popular leader even among the Tamils of Srilanka. He is no doubt strong and is much feared but is he also popular in a benign sort of way? I am not sure.
Pakistan need to find ways of dispersing powers to smaller units so that they can take care of their own destinies. Will the dictator of Pak have the sense to realize that he, despite good intensions, is hurting his country? He needs to usher in democracy and give up his dictatorial powers. AS this is not going to happen, it remains to be seen how the political scene in Baluchistan is going to unfold in future.
Sridhar

excerpts from a letter from the Dawn


`` For example, gas was discovered at Sui in 1952 but Quetta received gas connections in the 1980s. Even today, 94 per cent of Balochistan`s population has no gas supply. Besides, the province, which produces the commodity, receives the lowest rate of royalty than the other provinces. ``

May be HisExcellency should lobby the Pakistani government to correct this problem.

HP #109

“How does Baluchistan rely on rest of Pakistan ?”

`` First, there is no other buyer of the natural gas.
80% of Balochistan has power connections. Power comes from Punjab and Sindh.
Fishing Industry on Makran coast is entirely depended on Karachi and Sindh for buyers.
Gidiani in Balochistan is the only Ship breaking area in Pakistan. Most of the capital comes from Karachi but it provides employment.
Gawadar(not now) Pisni and Jiwani are port of entry of smuggled goods in to Pakistan.
Karachi and Sindh have more Baloch working there than in Balochistan and part of wages go to Balochistan.
HUB(name of the place) Dam is a source of water and power supply to Karachi and it is located in Balochistan which gathers revenue and employment thru the Dam.``

Duh. Baluchistan could sell natural gas to anyone who pays them hard currency ? I bet it is a lot more than the royalties Pakistan pays them now.

What is the electricity for ? The total amount must be 500-600 MW. It is not like Baluchistan has a massive industrial base of any sort.

`` First, there is no civil war in Pakistan and chances of that happening are non-existent. Second, my point was that countries exist despite non-developed political institutions. Burma and Somalia despite many problems still exist.``

These kind of confrontations are close to a civil war or a rebellion.

“Iran is in a better position than it was ever before in history.”

`` That is up for grabs. The current Iran regime may not last more than two years against the expected US onslaught. ``

The Iranian regime of mullahs may be in trouble. But Iranian people have a bright future. Given the current quagmire in Iraq US cannot mount a ground assault against Iran. The only option is air strikes. Air strikes against Iran are risky given Iranian oil exports, Iranian influence over some Shites in Iraq etc.

#107 by bbabu

“How does Baluchistan rely on rest of Pakistan ?”

First, there is no other buyer of the natural gas.
80% of Balochistan has power connections. Power comes from Punjab and Sindh.
Fishing Industry on Makran coast is entirely depended on Karachi and Sindh for buyers.
Gidiani in Balochistan is the only Ship breaking area in Pakistan. Most of the capital comes from Karachi but it provides employment.
Gawadar(not now) Pisni and Jiwani are port of entry of smuggled goods in to Pakistan.
Karachi and Sindh have more Baloch working there than in Balochistan and part of wages go to Balochistan.
HUB(name of the place) Dam is a source of water and power supply to Karachi and it is located in Balochistan which gathers revenue and employment thru the Dam.

“If you do not have political institutions to resolve these problems Pakistan is going to be an unstable state.”

Political institutions take time to develop and that is a weakness in Pakistan structure.

“Internal civil wars have undermined Burma, Somalia, a lot of countries in West Africa”

First, there is no civil war in Pakistan and chances of that happening are non-existent. Second, my point was that countries exist despite non-developed political institutions. Burma and Somalia despite many problems still exist.

“Iran is in a better position than it was ever before in history.”

That is up for grabs. The current Iran regime may not last more than two years against the expected US onslaught.

#106 by HP

*****
The Iran connection in Balochistan has no legs.
*****

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_26-1-2005_pg1_4

The Daily Times, Lahore, Pakistan
Wednesday, January 26, 2005

Balochistan’s troubles: CM does not rule out Iranian involvement

ISLAMABAD: Mir Jam Muhammad Yousaf, the Balochistan chief minister, has said he will not rule out the possibility that Iran or an extremist group is behind the recent disturbances in the province.

Talking to a private television, the chief minister said he suspected that either Iran, Al Qaeda or another foreign power or extremist groups opposed to the government’s policies could have been involved in the recent attacks by tribesmen on gas installations in Sui.

A report in the Sunday Telegraph claimed Pakistani officials believed Iran was instigating an insurgency in Balochistan, but the Foreign Office has denied the report, saying it blames no foreign power for events in the province and has a very good relationship with Iran.

Yousaf said there was no military operation in progress in the province and the government had no plans to launch one either. He said security forces were only there to guard natural gas installations in Sui.

Tribal chiefs have said the attacks were sparked by public outrage at the alleged gang rape of a woman doctor by army personnel, but Yousaf said the incident had sparked no such public outrage. He said many women in other parts of the country had been subjected to such crimes, but never had there been such a reaction.

He said soon after getting wind of the crime, the provincial government was ready to take action against the alleged rapists, but Pakistan Petroleum Limited authorities denied police permission to question the victim. online

HP #106

`` You are trying to script too many loose scenarios. Weaving thru even one of them would take at least three posts each. I will generally address your post.
Most of what you put forward as country breaking scenarios are actually very simple things and probably have no implications on the over all integrity of Pakistan.
First, the current Pakistan is now one geographical entity, second, it is integrated economically and all provinces rely on each other for resources and like many other countries including India several regions would always fight each other on different issues starting from water to power usage etc. these things are part of inherent give and take that goes on different state levels including assemblies and Senates and even in the cabinet itself.``

How does Baluchistan rely on rest of Pakistan ?

If you do not have political institutions to resolve these problems Pakistan is going to be an unstable state.

`` The problem that Pakistan has is that it has failed to establish a political system. Not establishing a political system itself does not break a country apart. It has not happened in the modern history. There are other factors that break a country. Such as foreign intervention or defeat in a war.``

Internal civil wars have undermined Burma, Somalia, a lot of countries in West Africa

`` There are only two forces in the current world that can break Pakistan apart. Both these forces are so massive that Pakistan cannot fight them on different levels. The US and India are the only two countries in the world that can damage Pakistan’s integrity and they too will have to rely on physical forces to do that.
At this time both India and the US have no interest in moving chains from Torkham to Attock.``


`` It appears to me and I am not gonna bet anything on that right now that the US is pushing Pakistan to take over the same role that Shah of Iran had in the 70s. There are several problems with that and my fear is that Pakistan Army would accept that role thus creating permanent enemies on several fronts. The Afghan government cannot survive with out support from Pakistan and eventually the US would let Pakistan be the tutelage power for Afghanistan or at least the Pushtoon speaking parts of Afghanistan.``

What is the problem with being a policemen for Uncle Sam ? I would do it if the price was right.

`` The Iran connection in Balochistan has no legs. The Wash Times article is part of the US campaign to build the case against Iran. Iran has been so much in trouble with the US and it is so much tied down in Iraq that Iran would not open another front on its back against Pakistan. The reality is that Baloch have always looked at Iran with suspicion and it would be hard for them to bat for Iran now.``

Iran is in a better position than it was ever before in history. Saddam is history. Iraqi Shites will gain power in Iraq. Pakistan has been booted out of Afghanistan. Saudi monarchy is in a defensive mode over Osama Bin laden. Saudi-US relations are under severe strain. Oil prices are going higher. Neighbors like Azerbaijan, Turkmentstan are too weak to pose any threat to Iran.

Short of a US military occupation Iran is going to get nukes in 3-5 years.

`` Don’t look too much in the current melee in Balochistan. It is a persistent problem, which occurs every year when the Pak govt and Baloch Sardars go in dispute over the royalty. ``

At some point Baluchis will demand their pound of flesh over the natural gas.

#104 by nangaparbat

Salim,
You are trying to script too many loose scenarios. Weaving thru even one of them would take at least three posts each. I will generally address your post.
Most of what you put forward as country breaking scenarios are actually very simple things and probably have no implications on the over all integrity of Pakistan.
First, the current Pakistan is now one geographical entity, second, it is integrated economically and all provinces rely on each other for resources and like many other countries including India several regions would always fight each other on different issues starting from water to power usage etc. these things are part of inherent give and take that goes on different state levels including assemblies and Senates and even in the cabinet itself.
The problem that Pakistan has is that it has failed to establish a political system. Not establishing a political system itself does not break a country apart. It has not happened in the modern history. There are other factors that break a country. Such as foreign intervention or defeat in a war.
There are only two forces in the current world that can break Pakistan apart. Both these forces are so massive that Pakistan cannot fight them on different levels. The US and India are the only two countries in the world that can damage Pakistan’s integrity and they too will have to rely on physical forces to do that.
At this time both India and the US have no interest in moving chains from Torkham to Attock.
It appears to me and I am not gonna bet anything on that right now that the US is pushing Pakistan to take over the same role that Shah of Iran had in the 70s. There are several problems with that and my fear is that Pakistan Army would accept that role thus creating permanent enemies on several fronts. The Afghan government cannot survive with out support from Pakistan and eventually the US would let Pakistan be the tutelage power for Afghanistan or at least the Pushtoon speaking parts of Afghanistan.
The Iran connection in Balochistan has no legs. The Wash Times article is part of the US campaign to build the case against Iran. Iran has been so much in trouble with the US and it is so much tied down in Iraq that Iran would not open another front on its back against Pakistan. The reality is that Baloch have always looked at Iran with suspicion and it would be hard for them to bat for Iran now.
Having said that, the US already has bases in Balochistan and is pushing Pakistan to build more bases there, Baloch Sardars would try and extract maximum benefits from the Pak Army and the US and stay away from Iran altogether.
Don’t look too much in the current melee in Balochistan. It is a persistent problem, which occurs every year when the Pak govt and Baloch Sardars go in dispute over the royalty.

#97 and #104 by nangaparbat

Salim,

Excellent Posts.

Re: # 101
bbabu,
The article from the Washington Times that you posted relfects the growing schism between Pakistan and Iran. The latter has been growing incrasingly concerned about the frequent killings of Shias in Sunni-dominated Pakistan. Previously, under Pakistan`s ISI-supported Taliban regime in Aghanistan, thousands of Shias were summarily massacred by the right-wing Sunni Wahabbi Taliban regime. With the pogroms against Shias in Punjab and Karachi, Iran is now playing its trump card - Baluchistan.

Of course, the 180 degree U-turn by Pakistan in persecuting its former allies, the Taliban and Al-Quaida terrorists, has added a free-for-all atmosphere to the quasi-religious wars in western Pakistan. I think that the clampdown on the Sunni right-wing elements was always a facade meant to placate an impatient Washington and to draw maximum US aid for the cash-strapped economy of Pakistan. The alliance between Sunni right-wingers and the Pakistan army is very old, dating back to the Zia regime. It was meant to keep the secularists in check while prolonging army rule. The secularists themselves are nothing more than a hodge-podge of played out feudals backing either BB or Nawaz Sharif. Some have found it politically convenient and economically-advatageous to join Mushy`s Muslim League.

The picture that is emerging is one of confusion and musical chairs. You have the pro-Taliban NWFP with support from Pathan elements of the Pak Army, the Baluchi nationalists with backing from Iran, Mohajir nationalists in Karachi and Hyderabad backed by industrialists in that teeming city, and some say Indian backing also, the Sindhi nationalists backing the PPP, and lastly the most powerful feudals in Punjab with backing from the Mushy Government, the Muslim League, and the bulk of the Punjabi elements of the Pak Army. The PPP has been largely sidelined in the Punjab as has been the Nawaz Muslim League. There is great animosity between the MQM and the religous right. While they may appear to be similar, there is an unbridgeable gap between the PPP/Nawaz Muslim League elements and the MQM because of the bloodshed from the 80s and 90s. MQM will play the religious right against the secularists and claim Karachi/Hyderabad after these two have fought it out. The Army will have to split along Pathan/Punjabi lines if the rift between MMA and Army Government is not resolved soon. The pressure is building and hopefully cooler heads can prevail to avoid a full-fledged bloodbath in Pakistan. Nuclear weapons, developed by the Mohajir Dr. A. Q. Khan, did not necessarily bring peace and safety to Pakistan. This is a nightmare that is rapidly developing into reality. God help the poor people of Pakistan.

nangaparbat #100

`` You may be right. However, one group we are all ignoring is the MMA and their massive support throughout NWFP, Baluchistan, and even Karachi. They are just waiting for the military and secularists to fight it out and they are ready to move in and fill the vacuum. Because almost all the benefits of US aid and grants are going directly to Punjab, and the other three provinces are destitute, there is a good chance of violence breaking out against the army in all three provinces, simulataneously. I hope it doesn`t happen but events do have a way of working rapidly in Pakistan once violence starts.``

Depending on how you look at it the MMA is a proxy or a escape valve for the Pakistani Army. They serve the purpose of undercutting mainstream political groups like the PPP and PML and ethnic parties like the ANP and Baluchi groups. It helps the Pakistani Army co-opt Islamic militants with one hand while the other hand is helping USA to catch Al Qaida and Taliban activists. If the MMA loses the support of the generals they will cease to be effective in NWFP and Baluchistan.

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From the Washington Times a right wing publication in the USA

Pakistan assails Iran over growing Baluch insurgency
By Massoud Ansari
LONDON SUNDAY TELEGRAPH

KARACHI, Pakistan — Pakistan has blamed Iran for fueling a growing insurgency in Baluchistan, the strategically sensitive province where militant tribesmen have launched a series of terrorist attacks in recent weeks.
Senior government officials say Iran is encouraging ``intruders`` from within its own Baluch community to cross the 550-mile border with the Pakistani province and give support to the rebels.
``All this violence is a part of a greater conspiracy,`` a senior Pakistani government official said. ``These militants would not be challenging the government so openly without the backup of a foreign hand.``
Pakistan`s support would be essential for any U.S.-led action against Iran, whose fundamentalist Muslim regime was last week put firmly in the sights of the second Bush administration by Vice President Dick Cheney. ``You look around the world at potential trouble spots — Iran is right at the top of the list,`` Mr. Cheney said.
Pakistan`s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency set up a unit in the provincial capital, Quetta, last year to monitor suspected Iranian activity in Baluchistan. Officials say that in addition to directly supporting the insurgency, Tehran`s state-controlled radio has launched a propaganda campaign against Islamabad.
``Radio Tehran broadcasts between 90 and 100 minutes of programs every day which carry propaganda against the Pakistan government,`` said a former interior minister. He added that Iran was suspected of providing financial, logistical and moral backing for the insurgency.
Iran is said to be taking advantage of unrest among tribesmen who claim to have been denied the benefits of Baluchistan`s natural-gas fields.
Earlier this month, rebels disrupted gas production in a series of rocket and mortar attacks, which killed eight persons. However, Islamabad is delaying a formal complaint to Tehran in the hope that private diplomatic channels may prove more effective. Meanwhile, large numbers of troops are hunting rebels in the province.
Pakistani officials believe that Tehran — already furious at Pakistan`s support for the U.S.-led war on terrorism — has stepped up its activity in Baluchistan because of its anger at the construction of a vast deep-water port at Gwadar, close to the border, which it fears could be used by Washington as a base for monitoring and infiltrating Iran.
Washington believes Iran is pursuing an advanced nuclear-weapons program in addition to sponsoring international terrorism, and has repeatedly accused Tehran of fomenting trouble within Iraq.
Last week, journalist Seymour Hersh reported in the New Yorker that U.S. special forces had carried out recent reconnaissance missions inside Iran to identify nuclear, chemical and missile sites that could be targeted. Although the Bush administration brushed aside the claims, the report heightened the belief that the United States might be preparing to take action.

Re: # 99
bbabu,
{``I do not think there is any imminent danger of breakup in pakistan. ``}

You may be right. However, one group we are all ignoring is the MMA and their massive support throughout NWFP, Baluchistan, and even Karachi. They are just waiting for the military and secularists to fight it out and they are ready to move in and fill the vacuum. Because almost all the benefits of US aid and grants are going directly to Punjab, and the other three provinces are destitute, there is a good chance of violence breaking out against the army in all three provinces, simulataneously. I hope it doesn`t happen but events do have a way of working rapidly in Pakistan once violence starts.

nangaparbat #98

`` The support for Pakistan in 1940s was genuine as is the disaffection with that nation among the people on the periphery of the power establishment in Pakistan, right from its inception. Bengalis were the foremost supporters of Pakistan as were the Mohajirs, without whose support the young country would have died in infancy. The shameful usurpation of all civilian power by Punjabis, though their paramount position in the armed forces, was the catalyst that brought Pakistan to ruin. It was dismembered in 1971 and the dark clouds of secession are covering the three disgruntled provinces today. Playing the role of the bully has gotten Punjab large gains in development, industries, and infrastructure. It may also make it a lank-locked country like Nepal and Afghanistan. ``

I do not think there is any imminent danger of breakup in pakistan. I think these ethnic grievances undermine political stability and reduce economic development which reinforce the original grievances. At some point in the future there is a real good chance that it would lead to secession. It is a vicious cycle. I think the Pakistani Army has to make peace with India, shut down militant groups operating in Kashmir and Afghanistan and reduce its share of the national budget to reverse this trend. For all of his faults Musharraf has made some moves in this direction. It is almost like his heart and his head don`t go in tandem.

Re: # 95
bbabu {``After all Bengalis were pretty enthusiatic boosters for Pakistan in 1947. It did not take long before they wanted out. 24 years is a short time frame in history. Mohajhir support in creation of Pakistan did not prevent MQM-govt showdown.``}

The support for Pakistan in 1940s was genuine as is the disaffection with that nation among the people on the periphery of the power establishment in Pakistan, right from its inception. Bengalis were the foremost supporters of Pakistan as were the Mohajirs, without whose support the young country would have died in infancy. The shameful usurpation of all civilian power by Punjabis, though their paramount position in the armed forces, was the catalyst that brought Pakistan to ruin. It was dismembered in 1971 and the dark clouds of secession are covering the three disgruntled provinces today. Playing the role of the bully has gotten Punjab large gains in development, industries, and infrastructure. It may also make it a lank-locked country like Nepal and Afghanistan.

The dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971 changed the rules of the game as far as Kashmir is concerned. What was feasible and defensible in 1948 could not be justified in 1971 and therefore cannot be taken as gospel in 2005. While one can argue that Pakistan (the former West Pakistan, or in the future the lone remaining province of Punjab) is the sole heir for Muslims to the partition plan of 1946-47, the case for such an argument is not that crystal clear. Pakistan, now (and Punjab, even less, in the future) may represent less than one-third of the total number of Muslims in the sub-continent. What right can 30% of the people have to make a decision for the much larger majority. India is home to more Muslims than either Pakistan or Bangladesh. Don`t the Indian Muslims get to decide if one of their provinces should go to Pakistan or become independent? What would be the status of these Indian Muslims if Kashmir were to become part of Pakistan? Not only would they become fewer in numbers, but their own position would go from fifth columnists to maybe even worse. I, of course, do not want to think purely in religious terms and religious numbers. I am merely doing this because such perverted logic was used in the TNT to dismember India at the expense of the Indian Muslims, Sikhs, and those Hindus who found themselves in Pakistan.
A nation, founded on religious zeal, and functioning on the age-old provincial, ethnic, tribal, and linguistic lines of separation is bound to fall apart on those very lines.

Re: # 88
rsridhar,
{``All conditions that resulted in Bangladesh in 1971 exist today in Baluchistan.
1. A disenchanted population
2. A seperatist movement that is slowly gaining momentum
3. An unpopular military dictatorship``{

Rsridhar,
As one whose sympathies have almost always been with Pakistan, it disturbs me to admit that you are right in your first two items. ``An unpopular military dictatorship`` is a universal problem for almost all of Pakistan, not just Baluchistan. The crux of the problem is rather Punjabi domination that is resented by the three remaining provinces, and of course ``Azad`` Kashmir, Gilgit, and Baltistan. Pakistan has none of the safeguards that ensured the viability of the smaller states in the US Republic. Punjab dominates the armed forces, the civil servant class, and now the industries. Using its military might, Punjab imposed ``Operation Cleanup`` on the industrial center of Karachi and the ensuing murder, rape, and mayhem sent the city`s industries to Lahore in large numbers. The solution to the problem is the splitting up of Punjab into three or more smaller provinces, just as India did with E. Punjab. That will placate the Saraiki minority in Punjab and diminish the overwhelming nature of Punjab`s domination. Also, the armed forces need to be reduced in number and made more representative of the country`s demographics.

Romair #85

`` Any community can back any kind of separatists. But for that to happen, two things have to exist. First their has to be an indigenous separatist movements. Second there has to be a reason for the other country to back the separatists. In Kashmir both these reasons exist. Just like in East Pakistan, they existed. Neither exists in Baluchistan. There is no separatist movement. Nor does Iran have any reason to back a separatist movement, if it existed.``

There is a latent separatist movement among Paktoons, Baluchis and Sindhis. What does Baluchis get from being within Pakistan ? If Baluchistan has those natural gas reserves they can sell the natural gas to any external player in return for hard cash. As long as Pakistani government does not pay them the royalties they deserve there will be discontent. It is a matter of time before discontent turns to separatism. After all Bengalis were pretty enthusiatic boosters for Pakistan in 1947. It did not take long before they wanted out. 24 years is a short time frame in history. Mohajhir support in creation of Pakistan did not prevent MQM-govt showdown.

`` Can you tell me exactly why they would launch an attack? What would be the motivation? Why would the people of Iran be interested in attacking Pakistan? What would they gain from it? Countries don`t just attack each other for fun. And even with nukes, India threatened to attack but did not. Why would Iran, with a military much smaller than India`s attack? ``

I never said Iran would attack Pakistan. All I said that they can back separatists or they can use the threat of support for Baluchi separartism to influence Pakistani government policy. Items on Iran`s agenda could include support for Taliban, any pipeline from Central Asia to Pakistan, Pakistani military co-operation with UAE/Saudi Arabia/Oman, co-operation with USA, Pakistani state support for ant-Shite groups etc. I never said the clerics in Teharan are entirely rational.

Keep in mind Iranian state makes $20 bi in petroluem reveneues plus potentially several billion in natural gas revenues. That is four times the Pakistani government budget. Financially it is no brainer as to who can sustain a longer war.

`` Can you name any nuclear country that has been attacked? Border skirmishes and all out attacks are two different things. Why didn`t India attack Pakistan when it had its forces piled on the border. Why did it back down? India has a 5-1 advantage in military budget. But it still did not attack. It was a nuclear deterent that stopped India.``

I am sure this kind of mentality will lead Pakistan to a limited or all out nuclear war. Unfortunately you may have to worry about other countries in addition to India.

India has forged a strong nation out of a heterogeneous group of people. Pakistan has created heterogeneous people out of a nation united in the name of Islam.

Re: # 92

Mohar11 :{``After 15 years of breeding and feeding jihad in name of Kashmir, pakis suddenly realize that this simple truth. Well, better late than never. ``}

Mohar,
Nothing is static. One has to constantly evaluate the situation. What may have been right in 1948 could have changed by now. I have always tried to look at Kashmir from the viewpoint of what is good for the Kashmiris. Frankly, as of right now, they should be better off in India. The only problem I see is the presence of vast numbers of Indian troops in populated areas. If India moved the troops to the LoC and let the locals conduct their own affairs, the tension would subside. Joining Pakistan would only put the Kashmiris in the proverbial ``from the firepan to the fire`` jeopardy.

#89 by nangaparbat
//...My only advice to Kashmiris is that they should accept Indian rule over them...//

Gee - thanks man. Coming from a paki that really means a lot. After 15 years of breeding and feeding jihad in name of Kashmir, pakis suddenly realize that this simple truth. Well, better late than never.

Anycase - Kashmiris already know that.

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It`s about time, we erase the blight created by Pakistani governments in ignoring the plight of Pakistanis stranded in Bangladesh. I am sending the following letter to Mushy:

President General Pervez Musharraf
President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Islamabad, Pakistan

Dear Mr. President:

First let me commend you on how you have brilliantly steered the nation through these treacherous times. I am an American of Pakistani origin and I would like to request your action on a matter of the highest humanitarian importance. While there are many issues concerning Islam in general and Pakistan in particular, that cause my head to bow in shame, nothing is more disturbing and humiliating than the plight of innocent Pakistanis stranded in Bangladesh since 1971.

Several successive Pakistani governments, from Bhutto to your own regime, have ignored this disaster. I understand the cruel pressure on the Pakistani government from indigenous people such as Punjabis and others that have blocked resolution of this rather easy problem. No one is requesting that these Pakistanis be resettled in Punjab - there is plenty of room near Karachi for them. The people of Karachi are prepared to house them, feed them, and provide necessary employment for these brethren. Saudi Arabia, in the past, had offered to fund the transportation for these hundreds of thousands of Pakistani citizens.

You had the courage to remove an inefficient and corrupt Punjabi Prime Minister and send him packing for a permanent Hajj. Once again, you can demonstrate proactive, decisive, and courageous leadership by bringing back these unfortunate Pakistanis. Do it for Allah, do it for Islam, but most of all, do it for Pakistan. I have faith in you. My next action will be to contact my Congressman and Senator, both important Republicans, to provide any help that may be necessary to assist your government in the resettlement effort.

Once this problem is solved, I would like to make suggestions concerning the plight of our Ahmedi brothers and sisters.

I thank you for your prompt attention to my request.

Sincerely yours,



Salim Ahmed Chauhan

My only advice to Kashmiris is that they should accept Indian rule over them. At least they have a limited amount of self-government. While they too are under military occupation, it might be not as bad as the occupation of Baluchistan, NWFP, Karachi, and Gilgit/Baltistan by the Pakistan Punjabis. What the Punjabis had done to Karachi is unpardonable. They have murdered, raped, and looted at will. They have driven businesses and industries to Lahore - perhaps that was part of the plan. So many people from Karachi left that city for UK/US/Canada in the late 80 and early 90s that it was almost as if they were fleeing from a genocide. Unless you are one of the suffering non-Punjabis in Pakistan, it is difficult to imagine what this accursed race has done to a nation of innocents.

re:#85 by Romair
People like Romair live in Fool`s paradise.
All conditions that resulted in Bangladesh in 1971 exist today in Baluchistan.
1. A disenchanted population
2. A seperatist movement that is slowly gaining momentum
3. An unpopular military dictatorship
What Baluchistan does not have is a popular leader like Sheikh Mujibur Rehamn of Bangladesh. Baluchistan is a disaster waiting to happen.
http://www.rediff.com/news/2001/sep/06pak.htm
One may also read Najam Sethi`s article from SA tribune
http://www.satribune.com/archives/august04/P1_sethi.htm
Excerpts from Najam Sethi`s article:

(Divided, fatigued and shorn of ideological moorings or avowed enemies like ZA Bhutto, the Baloch “movement” melted into memory over the next two decades. Nawab Akbar Bugti was consigned to negotiating rights and concessions only for his Bugti tribesmen in Sui. And the various civilian federal governments that came and went were content to accede to his local pecuniary demands. In the event, what has changed under General Pervez Musharraf to compel the Bugti and Marri tribes to join hands? What has transpired in the last five years to lead to a reinvention of the “Baloch middle class nationalist struggle for provincial rights”?)

(The single most critical macro factor is the social and electoral engineering initiated by the military regime in the last five years. By sidelining the mainstream PPP and PMLN parties and their natural “progressive” allies like the ANP, BNP and others in favor of the mullahs of the Jama’at i Islami and Jamiat i Ulema i Islam, General Musharraf has alienated the old non-religious tribal leadership as well as the new secular urban middle classes of Balochistan who see no economic or political space for themselves in the new military-mullah dispensation.)


(...a “Baloch Liberation Army” comprising a few armed bands under tribal and middle class command is conducting military operations against the “agents and outposts of Islamabad” in Balochistan. Gwadar is an obvious target. It is a federal project without provincial approval or participation in which the non-Baloch civil-military elites are grabbing land for a song.)

(The danger in Balochistan is two-fold. The nascent but alienated middle class in the few towns of Balochistan is now rallying behind the nationalists and accepts the ‘sardars’ spearheading PONM as ‘genuine leaders’ At the same time, the developmental lag in the province is sufficient to substantiate the anti-center stance of PONM. That is why any military action in the province will completely lack local support.)
Sridhar

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re: Romair # 85

Physially, historically, and culturally, Central Asian Baluchistan is distinct and sperate from Punjabi Pakistan. The problems and issues of Baluchistan have never been the same as the problems and issues of Punjabi Pakistan.

Fanning Baluchi`s need for independence is not an impossible task.

bbabu #83: ``Iran can back Baluchi separatists like Pakistan backs Kashmiri separatists.``

Any community can back any kind of separatists. But for that to happen, two things have to exist. First their has to be an indigenous separatist movements. Second there has to be a reason for the other country to back the separatists. In Kashmir both these reasons exist. Just like in East Pakistan, they existed. Neither exists in Baluchistan. There is no separatist movement. Nor does Iran have any reason to back a separatist movement, if it existed.

``Iran is not going to launch any attack till they get their nukes, Give it 3-5 years before you see change in behavior.``

Can you tell me exactly why they would launch an attack? What would be the motivation? Why would the people of Iran be interested in attacking Pakistan? What would they gain from it? Countries don`t just attack each other for fun. And even with nukes, India threatened to attack but did not. Why would Iran, with a military much smaller than India`s attack?

``Nukes do not prevent wars.``

Can you name any nuclear country that has been attacked? Border skirmishes and all out attacks are two different things. Why didn`t India attack Pakistan when it had its forces piled on the border. Why did it back down? India has a 5-1 advantage in military budget. But it still did not attack. It was a nuclear deterent that stopped India.

Dean Ali,
An excellenet presentation of what is Pakistan`s perpetual problem - distrust of Punjabis. It`s time we cut that huge province to its proper size. India divided E Punjab into no less than three separate ones and they seem to be better off. For starters, let`s separate the Saraiki area suffering under the ``Punjabi`` hegemony. Next, we should separate several other areas from the remaineder. Once Punjab has been cut down to normal size, we can then talk about democracy - true democracy and not the farce we survived through the BB and Nawaz years. Also, the other people of Pakistan need to be brought into the armed forces so that the army doesn`t continue be the gang of goons representing only Punjabis. This army of cowards, that has never won a war, has lost East Pakistan, murdered and raped Bengalis, bombed and raped in Baluchistan, bombed and killed in NWFP, pissed off everyone in AK, Gilgit, and Baltistan, murdered innocent boys and raped women in Sind just because they were Mohajir Urdu-speakers. and misruled the country for over half its existence.
To summarize,
Cut Punjab down to size - at least three provinces out of one big one.
Make the army more representative of the country.
Restore true democracy.
If this doesn`t work, give the country back to India and let them solve the problem. Maybe they will.

Romair #82

bbabu #79: ``They would back Baluchi nationalists if Pakistani leaders allows Pakistan to be used as a launching pad against Iran.``

`` Yes, this is correct, if that is what was going to happen. But we are not discussing that scenario. In this case, Pakistan would be launching an attack against Iran. Not vice-versa. And Iran would be defending itself. We are discussing Iran gobbling up Baluchistan, as an act of aggression.``

Iran can back Baluchi separatists like Pakistan backs Kashmiri separatists. There is nothing Pakistan can do about it. Pakistan lacks the conventional military capability to march to Tehran.

`` There is nothing to indicate that Pakistan is being used as a launching pad of any kind against Iran, other than an article from one American journalist. Why in the world would Pakistan be interested in launching an attack against Iran? Amit thinks Iran would launch an attack against Pakistan. And you think Pakistan would launch one against Iran.``

Iran is not going to launch any attack till they get their nukes, Give it 3-5 years before you see change in behavior.

``You were pretty closed to getting clocked by Uncle Sam after Sep-11.``

`` This just proves my point. We were pretty close to being attacked by India also. But India wisely backed off, even though Pakistan did not fulfill any of its 20 or so requests. If Pakistan did not have nukes, there may have been attacks. India wouldn`t have been clocked by China in the 60s, if India had nukes. And Iraq would not have been attacked by the USA, if it had nukes.......This is also why Iran maybe attacked by the USA, but North Korea never will be......... ``

If those hijackers hit a civillian nuclear station in USA and caused radioactive debris I do not think Colin Powell would be having any conversations with Mushy.

Soviet Union and China had fierce border clashes in late 1960`s. India and China had skirmishes in the 1980s. India and Pakistan fought over Kargil in 1999. Nukes do not prevent wars.

bbabu #79: ``They would back Baluchi nationalists if Pakistani leaders allows Pakistan to be used as a launching pad against Iran.``

Yes, this is correct, if that is what was going to happen. But we are not discussing that scenario. In this case, Pakistan would be launching an attack against Iran. Not vice-versa. And Iran would be defending itself. We are discussing Iran gobbling up Baluchistan, as an act of aggression.

There is nothing to indicate that Pakistan is being used as a launching pad of any kind against Iran, other than an article from one American journalist. Why in the world would Pakistan be interested in launching an attack against Iran? Amit thinks Iran would launch an attack against Pakistan. And you think Pakistan would launch one against Iran.

The sane thought would be that neither would launch an attack against each other. The Pak/Iran border is by a huge margin the most unprotected border in Pakistan. There is no threat from either side. Nor is there any enemity between populations.......

``You were pretty closed to getting clocked by Uncle Sam after Sep-11.``

This just proves my point. We were pretty close to being attacked by India also. But India wisely backed off, even though Pakistan did not fulfill any of its 20 or so requests. If Pakistan did not have nukes, there may have been attacks. India wouldn`t have been clocked by China in the 60s, if India had nukes. And Iraq would not have been attacked by the USA, if it had nukes.......This is also why Iran maybe attacked by the USA, but North Korea never will be.........

bbabu, --Several posts.

Eid festivities are keeping me busy and I don`t have much time right now. However, I am really impressed with your understanding and knowledge about Pakistan politics. It is refreshing.
Barring a couple of Indians like you on this board, most of Indians and Pakistanis, I must add lack a basic knowledge of Pakistan politics and the Pak army thought process.
Which part of Pakistan are you from :)
If you continue to post like that, I will be glad to offer you honorary Pakistani citizenship. It is a challenge but we do need people who can wade thru the contours of the Pakistani politics objectively.
More on this later.

PS. If I get a chance this weekend, I have some ideas and knowledge about Iran-Balochistan relationship.

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HisExcellency #76

`` Do you think East Pakistan and West Pakistan broke up just because of disagreements about the Six-Points? Are you aware that Yahya and Bhutto had already conceded 5 out of the Six Points to Mujib in various Bhutto-Mujib talks between January and March 1971? ``

It is one thing to conceed the demands. What is the probability of honoring them. Do you think East Pakistan would get 56% of the revenue pie and spend it on economic development ?

The Pakistani elite and the Pakistani army have not followed any of those five demands versus the four remaining provinces. How many free and fair elections has Pakistan had ? Nawaz was propped up to undercut Benazir. When Nawaz tried to run things his own way he was booted out. Do you think the MMA is really an ``opposition party`` ?

`` The separate currencies demand (i.e. demand #3) wasn`t conceded by West Pakistan. But do you really think Mujib wanted to negotiate? He wanted to dictate terms to West Pakistan (although his party failed to win a single seat in West Pakistan). If Mujib really wanted to work things out with Yahya and Bhutto, he would have dropped demand #3 since the other demands had been conceded by Bhutto/Yahya.``

There is no evidence he wanted a separate currency. He was negotiating hard. Why shouldn`t Mujib dictate terms to West Pakistan ?

`` Mujib was encouraged by Indira Gandhi to take an unreasonable and rigid stand during the negotiations with Bhutto. Pakistan Army entered the picture only after Mujib took a hard line in talks with Bhutto and Yahya. If Mujib had adopted a reasonable and flexible attitude during the talks, he would have become a powerful Prime Minister of Pakistan even without separate currencies and autonomous provinces. A powerful Bengali Prime Minister could easily have appointed Bengali ministers in his cabinet and allocated more state resources to East Pakistan.``

You are assuming he will be allowed to exercise power in a sovereign manner. I presume that Yahya Khan was still the head of the army.

`` His rigidity cost him his own life later. After becoming Bangla Bandhu of Bangladesh, he destroyed all Bangladeshi institutions because of his totalitarian and uncompromising nature. From judges to professional Army officers, every pillar of Bangladeshi state was suffering under the weight of Mujib`s whimsical nature. They could only rescue their state by assassinating Mujib.``

Mujib`s autocratic ways aside Bangladesh was an unstable state till Ershad took over in early 1980s. Most of the Bangladeshi institutions are in a mess. It is part of a growing up process.

Romair #77

`` I still don`t see why this would be a possibility. Why in the world would Iran be interested in getting into a war with Pakistan, inside Pakistan`s borders? Just to get some natural gas? It has its own oil reserves. Why fight a war to get some more natural gas? If it is bent upon fighting a war, then it would be better off trying to take over the UAE shiekhdoms. They have oil and are a much easier target.``

They would back Baluchi nationalists if Pakistani leaders allows Pakistan to be used as a launching pad against Iran.

`` In addition, it is a fact of history that any country that has nukes, never gets attacked. Based on this theory, Pakistan will not get attacked by any country, in the future. An attack on Baluchistan by Iran, would result in a nuclear war.``

You were pretty closed to getting clocked by Uncle Sam after Sep-11.

`` To get a better understanding of Baluchis ties with Iran, you would have to ask HP. I do know that ethnic Baluchis are no longer an overwhelming majority in Baluchistan. I believe they are 50% of the population. The remaining tribes are in Punjab and Sind. Baluchistan, thus, has nowhere to go except with Pakistan.``

Amit #69: ``However, if Baluchistan degenerates and Iran becomes a declared nuclear power, it is a possibility. ``

I still don`t see why this would be a possibility. Why in the world would Iran be interested in getting into a war with Pakistan, inside Pakistan`s borders? Just to get some natural gas? It has its own oil reserves. Why fight a war to get some more natural gas? If it is bent upon fighting a war, then it would be better off trying to take over the UAE shiekhdoms. They have oil and are a much easier target.

Iran has gone through a brutal war with Iraq. I really don`t think it wants another one. The natural gas is very valuable to Pakistan. I don`t think it is as valuable to Iran.

In addition, it is a fact of history that any country that has nukes, never gets attacked. Based on this theory, Pakistan will not get attacked by any country, in the future. An attack on Baluchistan by Iran, would result in a nuclear war.

To get a better understanding of Baluchis ties with Iran, you would have to ask HP. I do know that ethnic Baluchis are no longer an overwhelming majority in Baluchistan. I believe they are 50% of the population. The remaining tribes are in Punjab and Sind. Baluchistan, thus, has nowhere to go except with Pakistan.

In my opinion, the only area of Pakistan that could successfully break away and make a go of it is Karachi and Hyderabad. Altaf Hussain floated the idea of an independent Jinnahpur, but it never caught on. And now a Muhajir is running the country. So it will never catch on.

``We should have negotiated a permanent settlement with Pakistan at that time where Pakistan would give up its claim on Kashmir, make full peace with India and in return, we wouldn`t interfere in East Pakistan.``

I am not sure how that would have practically worked. Maybe it would have worked out for India. If one assumes that all the problems in East Pakistan were caused by Indai and those in Kashmir are caused by Pakistan, then it may have worked. However, if one assumes that the Bengalis themselves wanted freedom and were willing to fight for it, and the Kashmiris themselves wanted freedom and are fighting for it, then the problems would have remained.

I am glad Bangladesh separated. It should have been a separate country to begin with. South Asia needs to settle down along the self-determination desires of its various people. Sooner or later, Kashmiris will be independent also. The sooner the better for all of South Asia. No one in Pakistan`s current generation misses East Pakistan. And no one in India will miss Kashmir. Rest assured.

These are all ego problems that people have in their desires to rule over other people..........

bbabu #65

Do you think East Pakistan and West Pakistan broke up just because of disagreements about the Six-Points? Are you aware that Yahya and Bhutto had already conceded 5 out of the Six Points to Mujib in various Bhutto-Mujib talks between January and March 1971?

The separate currencies demand (i.e. demand #3) wasn`t conceded by West Pakistan. But do you really think Mujib wanted to negotiate? He wanted to dictate terms to West Pakistan (although his party failed to win a single seat in West Pakistan). If Mujib really wanted to work things out with Yahya and Bhutto, he would have dropped demand #3 since the other demands had been conceded by Bhutto/Yahya.

Mujib was encouraged by Indira Gandhi to take an unreasonable and rigid stand during the negotiations with Bhutto. Pakistan Army entered the picture only after Mujib took a hard line in talks with Bhutto and Yahya. If Mujib had adopted a reasonable and flexible attitude during the talks, he would have become a powerful Prime Minister of Pakistan even without separate currencies and autonomous provinces. A powerful Bengali Prime Minister could easily have appointed Bengali ministers in his cabinet and allocated more state resources to East Pakistan.

His rigidity cost him his own life later. After becoming Bangla Bandhu of Bangladesh, he destroyed all Bangladeshi institutions because of his totalitarian and uncompromising nature. From judges to professional Army officers, every pillar of Bangladeshi state was suffering under the weight of Mujib`s whimsical nature. They could only rescue their state by assassinating Mujib.

There might be truth in rumors that moderate enlightment had
led the military to receive training in the West Bank and Gaza:

---

http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/WorldNF.asp?ArticleID=148722

Gulf News, UAE
January 21, 2005

Troops demolish homes of tribal militants in Sui
By Mujahid Ali, Correspondent

Quetta : Pakistan army and paramilitary soldiers, backed by gunship helicopters, yesterday started razing the mud-and-brick houses of tribal militants.

This was in retaliation for the firing of rockets and mortars by militants targeting the gas field installations in the remote Sui area, officials said.

Security forces launched the operation using bulldozers to demolish the houses belonging to the Bugti tribesmen.

These houses were built around the Sui gas field installations, witnesses said.

Balochistan provincial Home Minister Shoaib Nusherwani told Gulf News in Quetta that only those houses which were used in attacks on the gas field were being bulldozed.

``Securing the area and ensuring smooth gas supplies is our number one priority,`` he said.

``But it is not a military operation. We have not arrested any one. We are just depriving the militants of their hide-outs.``

Gas supplies from Sui, which produces 45 per cent of the country`s total gas output, resumed only a day earlier after a breakdown that lasted six days.

Sources in Pakistan Petroleum Ltd, which operates the field, said that the company suffered losses of Rs35 million (Dh2.2 million) a day.

Industrial and business activities were also badly hit. Police have issued arrest warrants for 36 tribesmen including Nawaz Akbar Khan Bugti, the chief of the tribe and a former chief minister of Balochistan.

One of his grandsons is also among those named in the police report for attacks on the gas field in which at least 15 people were killed.

A senior security official said the army deployments in the area were for an indefinite period.

``Now the forces plan to expand the security ring around the gas field which could mean displacing local tribesmen from their homes,`` he said. There are about 20,000 to 25,000 tribesmen living around the gas field. Yesterday, the security forces snapped communications and telephone lines of the area.

Residents of Sui, which is about 400km east of Quetta, said gunship helicopters hovered in the sky during the demolition operation.

Earlier, hundreds of troops built checkposts to counter any retaliation from the tribesmen.

While the ruling Pakistan Muslim League leaders want to resolve the dispute through negotiations, army officials deployed in the area have been ordered to show no flexibility and ensure security of the gas field.

The violence was triggered on January 11 following the rape of a lady doctor allegedly by security officials. The army has denied involvement of its officers in the rape.

Opposition politicians say that the deep sense of deprivation and non-acceptance of the demands of greater political and economic rights of Balochis by the government aggravated the situation.

Senator Sanaullah Baloch, a nationalist leader, said the incidents of violence can recur because people feel that their genuine demands remain unheard.

His Excellency #53

*****
The editor has failed to distinguish between statement and policy. Musharraf`s statement on TV was simply bravado and rhetoric.
*****

That`s plausible. It is downright foolish to take Pakistan`s military rulers at their word. ``Bravado and Rhetoric`` are their usual hallmark.

General Musharraf should not be taken seriously anytime he promises in public or in TV addresses that he will quit the Presidentship or that he`ll doff his uniform in two, three or five years. His promises mean no more than those of ``Field Marshal`` Ayub Khan or Generals Yahya Khan and Zia-ul Huq. Like his predecessors, General Musharraf will quit Presidentship or doff military uniform only when he has no other choice. Till then, promises are dime a dozen, ``simply bravado and rhetoric``.

http://us.rediff.com/news/2005/jan/20spec2.htm


The anti-Islamabad unrest in Balochistan continues unabated.

The unrest is due to anger over:

**The suppression of the nationalist aspirations of the Balochs by the government in Islamabad;

**The lack of economic development in the province despite the fact that its gas fields, which sustain the economy of Punjab, are a major source of revenue;

**The continuing failure of the Pakistan government to give to the provincial administration and the tribes in whose territory gas was found an adequate payment of royalty for the gas supplied to the other provinces of Pakistan;

**The non-association of the provincial authorities with the decision-making on the construction of the Gwadar port on the Mekran coast with Chinese assistance and the award of almost all contracts relating to the project to non-Balochs, mainly Punjabis;

**The import of Punjabis and other non-Balochs, many of them ex-servicemen, into the province to work in the project;

**The plans of the military-dominated administration in Islamabad to construct three new cantonments in the province in order to increase the number of troops permanently stationed there.

**The continuing unrest, which is mainly directed against the army and the central government authorities and the gas production and supply infrastructure, was reflected in another attack by the Baloch nationalist elements on paramilitary personnel deployed in the province on December 25, coinciding with the 128th birth anniversary of Mohammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GA13Df01.html

Asia Times, Hong Kong
January 13, 2005

Musharraf blusters as Balochistan boils
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

..... Behind Musharraf`s threats, though, and even though the tribals have seriously challenged state writ, the government is extremely hesitant to use the force it used in the South Waziristan tribal area last year to flush out foreign fighters, for several reasons:

**Musharraf is already being pushed to the wall by his military commanders on several issues, especially in dealing with India and his pro-US stance.

**On the issue of Musharraf reneging on an earlier pledge to shed his uniform at the end of last year, political forces are already ganging up against him.

**With regard to the South Waziristan operations, liberal forces such as the Pakistan People`s Party adopted a silent stance, but on Balochistan all political parties can be expected to vent their disapproval.

**In such an overall negative environment, the chances of a counter-military coup against Musharraf increase. Musharraf came to power in a 1999 coup.

Despite all of this, Musharraf appears to have little option other than military force, the consequences be damned.

The Khanate of Kalat was some 150,000 square kilometers in area. The Khan was trying to remain independent. In 1948, the Khan was forced to accede to Pakistan. This was months before the Nizam acceded India. So, even as Jinnah insisted that the Khan had no right to opt for independence, he was all for Hyderabad`s independence! Once Jinnah realized that geography stood in the way of Hyderabad`s accession to Pakistan, he decided to act the dog in the manger by speaking out for Hyderabad`s independence under the Nizam!

re: HP # 56

An older relative retired from the Indian intelligence world has confirmed most of what you wrote in # 35. According to his information, India continuously rejected calls from many Pakistanis to significantly interfere in Pakistani affairs. Pakistani friends were feted abroad and in cities of India, but all their requests for substantial help were politely declined. The buzz at his level was that India was paranoid about the Muslim card that Pakistan played up in all its conflicts with India. Even Indira Gandhi did not actively set out to create Bangladesh. That wasn`t an issue with other neighboring countries who were seen as just smaller neighbors.

re: Mohar11 # 45

I like to tell myself that our elders deserve all our respect, but none of our agreement :)

Anil ji`s post well captures the attitude of earlier generation of Indians. May be things worked well in those days. They don`t now. Today we must learn to behave in a manner in which everyone else behaves and is expected to behave. Yet attitudes don`t change easily.

Viresh..

``#43 by omar_r_quraishi on January 19, 2005 11:59pm PT
#33 by veeresh on January 19, 2005 7:43pm PT
``The world should apply what Natan Sharansky calls the `town square test`: if a person cannot walk into the middle of the town square and express his or her views without fear of arrest, imprisonment, or physical harm, then that person is living in a fear society, not a free society.``

Can you do this in Baluchistan?


yes u can unkill jee -- aur kuch? ``

Omar,

Accepted. When was the last time you wrote whole world should visit Balu... There is complete freedom. Can we visit some farm issue starting from O.. that now your army never ever coveted?

Viresh bhai

Can you shout loudly in Delhi Manmohan Singh is a Chor. Yes you can. Can you shout he is kufr... yes you can.

What Omar bhai means is can you do same in Baluchistan. I think he is right

Yes.

You have same freedom.

``Can you shout loudly in Baluchistan Manmohan Singh is a Chor. Yes you can. Can you shout he is kufr... yes you can.``

Are you happy?

See Omar never ever lies. That is something you Indians can do. You are human. He is Paki. How ever he can lie?? EH??

Have you ever heard 60 mills of or something. The guy who owened it ran away. Like FV. Like Tauheed.

If and when you lie, beware you are not Paki muslim. If Paki muslim do ...well everything goes.

BTW now you are probing honesty of ``t``. Never ever do that. Muslims can kill muslims. That always is unquestionable. Remember one thing. Every thing is mine is mine if I am muslim. I have a right to question what is yours. As a kufr you have no rights. That and that only must be discussed. I mean what you have. No argu...Period.

Yogiraj Patil

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HisExcellency #63

`` As you can clearly glean from these demands, the Baluchis want greater civilian control over Baluchistan. Nuclear testing in Chaghai does not concern them. The issue here is not whether Baluchistan should get more development projects. The issue is also not whether Army should conduct nuclear tests in Baluchistan. The issue for Baluchis is that they should control the revenues from Sui gas, copper mines in Saindak and Gwadar. They don`t want handouts from the federal govt.``

`` Let`s not confuse a power-sharing issue with separatism. Baluchi leaders are very pragmatic men, unlike Sheikh Mujib who was being encouraged by India to take a hardline position. Since there is no external force capable of supporting the Baluchi leaders, they are much more amenable to a compromise deal with the federal govt.``

I have listed Sheikh Mujib`s demands. I see no reason for Mujib to compromise on # 1, #4, #5 and #6. #2 and #3 are tricky issues because it takes a certain amount of trust that it is not the first step towards independence of East Pakistan. It raises questions about the fact whether the people in the Pakistani government are true Muslims or they are parochial Punjabi Muslims. It is something that Baluchis, Pusthuns and Sindhis will all be asking in the years to come. Get used to it !!!

1. The Constitution should provide for a Federation of Pakistan in the true sense on the basis of the Lahore Resolution and for a parliamentary form of government based on the supremacy of a directly elected legislature on the basis of universal adult franchise.``

2. The Federal Government shall deal with only two subjects; Defense and Foreign Affairs. All residuary subjects will be vested in the federating states.``

3. There should be either two separate, freely convertible currencies for the two Wings, or one currency with two separate reserve banks to prevent inter-Wing flight of capital.``

4. The power of taxation and revenue collection shall be vested in the federating units. The Federal Government will receive a share to meet its financial obligations.``

5. Economic disparities between the two Wings shall disappear through a series of economic, fiscal, and legal reforms.

6. A militia or paramilitary force must be created in East Pakistan, which at present has no defense of it own.

I am sure points # 1, # 4, # 5 and # 6 are issues for both Baluchis, Sindhis and other groups.

Going by the history of Pakistan after 1971 Sheikh Mujib was right in not compromising.

amit #61

Pakistani Army would not have accepted any of Mujib six demands over the long run. It is the end to their rule.

Re:HP#56

Actually India had a number of opportunities to undo Pakistan. Besides the nationalists in Baluchistan and Sindh, the Afghan government prior to the Taliban had approaced India as well. In fact the Afghans had offered a joint mission against Pakistan where they would attack on the western front while simultaneously India attacked on the eastern front. The Afghans would keep NWFP and Baluchistan, while India would keep Punjab, Sindh and Azad Kashmir. India turned down the proposal right away.

There were several reasons for this reluctance. A key reason was that in the cold war era, Pakistan was on the side of the West. Hence any attack on Pakistan would lead to repercussions from the US and possibly China. Secondly India was a weak nation. Its economy was in poor shape till the nineties and militarily it was weak till the seventies thanks to Krishna Menon, the pacifist defense minister. Thirdly, Pakistan served as a viable buffer between India and the Islamic world, especially in the pre-nuke days. India had memories of Islamic invasions and Pakistan provided a good first line of defence, while in itself it posed no challenge to India. Who wanted to deal with the crazy Afghans and Iranians on your border? It was better to let Pakistan handle that.

The breakup of East Pakistan was a different thing. It was almost impossible for Pakistan to hang on to it and the Pakistani leaders like Bhutto didnt even want to keep it. It had little or no impact on India`s western front. Even then it took India a long time to decide if it wanted to exploit the situation and it did a lot of homework in terms of international opinion before launching the mission. Nevertheless, I think it was a blunder because it didnt really lead to any strategic advantage for India. Bangladesh is not exactly our best friend and we are still quarreling with Pakistan over Kashmir.

Re:Romair#49

I have never been to Baluchistan just like you have never been to all parts of India. However, I have read the history of that area. My understanding is that Baluchistan used to be a province of Iran that was somehow ``acquired`` by the British. Hence there is an Iranian connection from the past. In the past, Baluchistan had little value to offer. But with large gas deposits, it has become quite valuable real estate. If the Baluch dont get a good deal in Pakistan, they may not want to just separate since they will not be viable on their own. However, they may be tempted to join Iran especially since Iran is a much richer country than Pakistan.

Would Iran be interested? Not right now since it has a lot on its plate with an unstable Iraq and neo-cons breathing fire in Washington. However, if Baluchistan degenerates and Iran becomes a declared nuclear power, it is a possibility.

I agree that in the past India did not honour the territorial integrity of Pakistan, especially in 1971. In my opinion, it was a blunder. We should have negotiated a permanent settlement with Pakistan at that time where Pakistan would give up its claim on Kashmir, make full peace with India and in return, we wouldn`t interfere in East Pakistan. As it is, East Pakistan would have kept Pakistan very busy for a long time. We broke it up and created an anti-India neighbor, while we are still negotiating with you on Kashmir. I hope if the situation arises again, we dont repeat that mistake.

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bbabu #57

``I am sure Baluchis would appreciate if the nukes are tested on Punjabi soil.``

Obviously you have no clue about what the Baluchis really want. If you read Ataullah Mengal (PONM chief)`s various interviews in Friday Times and Jang newspaper, you will understand that the Baluchis are demanding the following:

1. Civil
   armed forces should be handed over to provincial governments.
   
   At present, the federal govt has deployed federal civil armed forces such as DSG, Frontier Constabulary and Rangers in various parts of Baluchistan province. The Army controls other parts of Baluchistan. The provincial armed forces (i.e. Police and Baluch Levies) control less than 25% of Baluchistan
   


2. Gwadar Port Authority should be handed over to provincial govt
   
   At present, the federal govt controls the Gwadar Port Authority
   


3. Senate should be directly elected body with equal number of seats for all provinces
   
   At present, the Senate is elected indirectly by an electoral college comprising the National and Provincial Assemblies. However, the number of seats are divided equally among the 4 provinces.
   


4. Leases for housing schemes in Gwadar should be withdrawn
   
   This will allow the provincial govt to set up a Gwadar Housing Authority and allocate commercial licenses as it deems fit.
   


5. Priority in jobs be given to Gwadar locals
   
   To accomplish this, the federal govt will have to train the locals. But this will delay the project. For strategic reasons, the Pakistan and Chinese govt don`t want to delay Gwadar project any more.
   

As you can clearly glean from these demands, the Baluchis want greater civilian control over Baluchistan. Nuclear testing in Chaghai does not concern them. The issue here is not whether Baluchistan should get more development projects. The issue is also not whether Army should conduct nuclear tests in Baluchistan. The issue for Baluchis is that they should control the revenues from Sui gas, copper mines in Saindak and Gwadar. They don`t want handouts from the federal govt.

Let`s not confuse a power-sharing issue with separatism. Baluchi leaders are very pragmatic men, unlike Sheikh Mujib who was being encouraged by India to take a hardline position. Since there is no external force capable of supporting the Baluchi leaders, they are much more amenable to a compromise deal with the federal govt.

HE

If you can`t help spinning anyway then at least do not insult my or other people`s intelligence. There are better ways to do that.

HE

The facts make your arguments fall flat on their face. For example, the ideological allies of Taliban are a part of a democratic process to the extent they were allowed. They have formed governments in two provinces and form main opposition in Fedreal government. I do not see them firing bullets anywhere. Instead it is the napak fauj who are not using a political process but murder and intimidation. For obvious reasons I do not beleive that some foreigners can occupy Islamabad and start ruling whole pakistan thru their occupation. This is absurd. Stop spreading lies.

I don’t know where Dean Ali came up with the 60K Baluch fighters in 1973. That is not true at all. Most of the baloch struggle was confined to Guerilla activities in Marri area with never more than a couple of thousand militants with Gen. Sher Mohd. Marri, leading the way. Marri tribe itself was not more than 200,000 people at time and there weren’t 60K able bodies to fight the army.
The reality is that the Army had broken the back of the struggle by first arresting pretty much all Baloch leadership including the student wing of the NAP and the Communist Party cadre. The Baloch Student Orignizations was at that time led by Dr. Abdul Hai Baloch who was also a member of the National Assembly.
Ttwo prominant Sardars were able to get away from the army crackdown. Saradar Khair Bux Marri left for Afghanistan and Saradr Bugti became the Governor of Balochistan thus completing his betrayal of the Baloch cause which started when Gas was first discovered in his tribal area now general known as Sui.
Saradr Khair Bux Marri and his tribe under the leadership of Gen. Sher Mohd Marri aka Gen. Sharov was the only baloch group that resisted the army but as I said their strength never exceeded more than a couple of thousand. In struggles like the one in Balochistan, romanticism often obscures the reality.
Sardar KB Marri spent pretty much all self exiled time in Kabul and England. The Afghan government of first King Zahir Shah, and later of Daud provided the financial and arms support. Some Kurds from Irani Balochistan provided support with Arms and money but the reality is that the armed struggle had been disseminated within months of the Army crackdown. Balochs were no match for a superior Pak Army.

The progressive circles in Pakistan always debated whether the Baloch struggle is a struggle for National rights or it is a struggle for Sardar’s rights. All the pre-requisites for a national struggle were pretty much non-existent. There was no Baloch Middle Class and Baloch Saradr would not allow any school and colleges to open in their areas. Most of the Baloch students actually were from Karachi or had gotten education in Karachi. Quetta is Balochistan’s capital. Karachi is the hub of Baloch politics and all Sardars mostly live in Karachi and run their politics from Karachi.

Kaurasach’s comments (#2) cracked me up. He says, “Balochistan is Pakistan`s Kashmir? How much can India exploit the situation by giving ``moral support``?”

Now Amit has brought this up too from the other side, as he is not in favor of Indian intervention in Pakistani affairs. So here is some history of the Indian interference or non-interference in Pakistani affairs.

Can India make Balochistan or even Sindh Pakistan’s Kashmir? India certainly has capabilities but why India wouldn`t do that?

Many would say that India did it in Bangladesh. True, it did; but by that time Pak army had already decided to cut East Pakistan loose. The Pak Army practically forced India to come in East Pakistan by deliberately and physically pushing Bengalis in to Indian area. There was no other way for Bangladesh to become an independent country.

The anti Pakistan emotions ran really high first in Balochistan in 1973 and then in Sindh after 1977 for 5 to 6 years and there were groups in Sindh and Balochistan that actually approached India for moral and monetary support. Obviously, I don’t have any proof for that but if people would recall that from 1979 to 1986-87 many Pakistanis were actually living in India. A Couple of prominent names were Ahmed Faraz and Fahmida Riaz. There weren’t just writers and poet but some politicians were in India too. The former Sher e Punjab and Tehmina Durrani’s feudal Mustafa Khar used to visit India often. Murtaza Bhutto was often seen in India. From Sindh, many student leaders and Jiay Sindh movement leaders visited India illegally and pleaded for support but it never came. There was a saying in Sindh at that time that people go to India for free drinks and Daal as that’s all India is going to give them. One of my friends actually spent more than six months in Delhi as an Indian Government guest in 1982. Pakistan Communist party leaders attended CPI and CPM yearly conferences in India for three or four years in a row.
I am not going to say that India does not have spies in Pakistan because it does and that is part of the statecraft. But the truth is that Indians have never even discreetly attempted to help political groups in Pakistan.
Pakistan would never let an opportunity to harass India pass by but Indians just shy away from responding. There were many theories out there for this “non-conformist” Indian behavior.
For a while, people thought that Congress was all wrapped up in Gandhi and Nehru Idealism and they truly believed in “panch shaila” or Non interference in other countries affairs. (The Hindi words may be wrong but you know what I mean).

There is an element of naiveté or political idealism in Congress leadership. I see that in the current congress leadership too. Generally, they are “good” people and think that getting their hands in to Pakistani problems would open up the field for Pakistan to use Indian Muslims and Kashimiris. Exactly the way Amit is articulating now. The real reason for non-interference, I see now, was that India, from 1975(emergency) to almost Rajiv’s death, itself was wrapped up in its internal problems and they were handful. The RSS/BJP leadership showed more street smarts but they were actually street thugs and showed their real hand in Gujarat.

I think it is unwritten international rule to interfere in neighbor’s affairs. Or if you are the US, you interfere everywhere! It is also true that Indian policy of non-interference is confined to Pakistan alone as India did interfere in Sri Lanka and Nepal.
India did deploy its army in 1984 to rattle Zia up but when it tried repeating that in 2002-3, the whole thing actually fell flat on Indian face, 2002-3 was not 1984.

HisExcellency #51

`` Thanks for making my point. Ayub Khan`s flawed assumption [that defense of EP lies in WP] proved critical during the 1971 war. India has already demonstrated its proclivity to interfere militarily and illegally in internal matters of its neighbors. This strengthens Pakistan`s case for building more cantontments in Baluchistan, and weakens the Baluchi nationalists` argument for fewer cantontments.``

Ayub Khan was correct in theory. In practice he did not have a large army to defend West Pakistan either.

Unlike East Pakistan India has no land border with Baluchistan. For the forseeable future India lacks the naval and air force needed to mount an amphibious assault on Baluchistan.

I am sure Baluchis would appreciate if the nukes are tested on Punjabi soil.

`` As I wrote earlier, this is a stark difference between the EP and Baluchistan situation. The Bengalis wanted more cantontments. Their [valid] complaint was that WP had abandoned them to be ``devoured`` by India. The Baluchis are making the opposite argument.``

Different situations. Different arguments.

HisExcellency #52

`` This is exactly what Punjab was like a few decades ago. 80% of the land in Punjab was owned by just a handful of feudals. Northern and central Punjab were dominated by Nawab of Kalabagh, the Tiwana and Noon family. Southern Punjab was dominated by the Abbasi (Nawab of Bahawalpur), Leghari, Daultana and Gilani families.

Punjab remained a backward [but prosperous] agriculture-economy for most of its history until the 1970s. Land reforms weakened the hold of feudals and created dozens of smaller landlords.

These new smaller landlords could not sustain the feudal system and instead set up fruit processing factories, sugar mills and industrial units on their lands. To run these factories they needed labour. But unlike their peasants, these labourers demanded fair compensation according to prevaling demand/supply conditions.

Since the 1970s, Punjabi middle class has grown in size. Most of these people are traders, lawyers, govt servants, transport owners, hotel owners, restaurant owners, technicians, and military men. They are more politically conscious than their rural cousins.

The Punjab economy today is not a purely agriculture-based economy. Today Punjab is the industrial base of Pakistan`s growing economy. Textile manufacturing, steel mills, cement plants, sugar mills and professional services firms have sprung up all over Punjab.

This was only possible after weakening the hold of Punjabi Nawabs, Chaudhries and Sardars. Baluchistan also needs to follow the same path from feudalism to industrialization. The following steps are needed to alleviate poverty in Baluchistan:``


Tell this to Mr Romair who thinks feudals are responsible for destroying Pakistan

In any case Baluchistan`s problems reflect their inability to control their future in Pakistan.

bbabu #32

``Is there any Baluchi middle class ?``

As long as Baluchi sardars are calling the shots, there never will be one. The Gwadar project, Mekran coastal highway, Sainak copper mine and new airport are the first steps toward creating a Baluchi middle class. The feudal/sardari system stifles the middle class in Baluchistan.

This is exactly what Punjab was like a few decades ago. 80% of the land in Punjab was owned by just a handful of feudals. Northern and central Punjab were dominated by Nawab of Kalabagh, the Tiwana and Noon family. Southern Punjab was dominated by the Abbasi (Nawab of Bahawalpur), Leghari, Daultana and Gilani families.

Punjab remained a backward [but prosperous] agriculture-economy for most of its history until the 1970s. Land reforms weakened the hold of feudals and created dozens of smaller landlords.

These new smaller landlords could not sustain the feudal system and instead set up fruit processing factories, sugar mills and industrial units on their lands. To run these factories they needed labour. But unlike their peasants, these labourers demanded fair compensation according to prevaling demand/supply conditions.

Since the 1970s, Punjabi middle class has grown in size. Most of these people are traders, lawyers, govt servants, transport owners, hotel owners, restaurant owners, technicians, and military men. They are more politically conscious than their rural cousins.

The Punjab economy today is not a purely agriculture-based economy. Today Punjab is the industrial base of Pakistan`s growing economy. Textile manufacturing, steel mills, cement plants, sugar mills and professional services firms have sprung