Desperately Seeking Dictators and Dissenters
Farzana Versey February 15, 2005
#20 Posted by HP on February 15, 2005 8:55:04 pm
Farzana,
If somebody had asked me in year 2000 about Pakistan, I would have agreed with the CIA predictions. I must admit that before 2001, if I had helped write some studies on Pakistan for different US think tanks, my assessment would have been bleaker than what the CIA predicted.
CIA turned out to be wide of the mark, for the simple reason that even the CIA does not have a crystal ball. It still cannot look in the future and accurately predict what would happen. In fact, nobody has that kind of foresight.
The standard method for assessing the situation and making predictions is:
1. Gather the historical Data
2. Gather information about the players.
3. Identify trends
4. Gather economic data and economic trends
5. Look at all the current politicians and their affiliations
6. Look at the existing conflicts in the country and
7. Determine the impact of those conflicts on the overall political stability of the country.
Now there are other indices too but they are used for specific situations like international relations, relations with the neighbors and in Pakistan’s case, one would look at its relations with India to make sure that the defense expenditure would not go beyond a threshold that could completely cripple the economy.
There is no need to go into details of what changed the situation. The US was attacked and the indices that were supposed to bring Pakistan down actually became its assets.
The afghan conflict eventually would have destroyed Pakistan, if it had continued the way it was going. The Mujahideen were the worst thing that could happen to a country. The scum of the earth Taliban, and the fanatics that were pulling Pakistan down before 2001 became the bargaining chips for Pakistan and the rest is history.
If I comment on this entire article, I will probably have to write an article of the same length and here I would just comment on one more thing.
“Musharraf became an unlikely hero. Sharif’s attempt to do away with him was met with an announcement from the cockpit, “Nobody can sack me.”
What Nawaz was doing in Pakistan, was historic in nature. He is a man of limited capabilities but people around him were willing to take the army on and ham shackle it into a constitution abiding entity. He and his Punjabi industrialist colleagues had correctly visualized that without the support from the Indian capital, they and the Pakistani economy would not survive for long. There was no other source of capital available then and all the markets were shrinking for Pakistan. In terms of international relations, the congress government in India in an effective display of diplomacy has sidelined Pakistan in to a second tier power of the area or just another Bangladesh. Then came the Indian Taliban.
The RSS/BJP alliance destroyed all the good work that Congress had put in. The nuke explosion was the most stupid thing that could ever happen in the Indian history and Natwar Singh recently admitted that it was a foolish thing to do.
The nuke explosion helped raise the militarism again in Pakistan. The Allah o Akber crowd gained momentum and as soon as Pakistan responded with its own nuke tests, Nawaz lost the initiative to the army that he had gained after successfully dismissing an army chief. It was something unheard of and was unbelievable, given the hold that army had on Pakistan.
The Kargil was an event stage managed by the Pak army to regain its control of the internal political situation and the logical outcome was the dismissal of Nawaz Sharif govt.
The Pak army won yet another power game with the help of the Indian Taliban.
Before Musharaf could say “Nobody can sack me” there was another Chief of the army staff who just woefully walked out of the office with his head down and telling his fellow generals to cool their horses as the army was in no position to take on Nawaz Sharif at that time. I am talking about Gen. Karamat who was dismissed by Nawaz.
Musharaf would have been dead meat by now, if precision bombing attacks had not taken place in the US.
If somebody had asked me in year 2000 about Pakistan, I would have agreed with the CIA predictions. I must admit that before 2001, if I had helped write some studies on Pakistan for different US think tanks, my assessment would have been bleaker than what the CIA predicted.
CIA turned out to be wide of the mark, for the simple reason that even the CIA does not have a crystal ball. It still cannot look in the future and accurately predict what would happen. In fact, nobody has that kind of foresight.
The standard method for assessing the situation and making predictions is:
1. Gather the historical Data
2. Gather information about the players.
3. Identify trends
4. Gather economic data and economic trends
5. Look at all the current politicians and their affiliations
6. Look at the existing conflicts in the country and
7. Determine the impact of those conflicts on the overall political stability of the country.
Now there are other indices too but they are used for specific situations like international relations, relations with the neighbors and in Pakistan’s case, one would look at its relations with India to make sure that the defense expenditure would not go beyond a threshold that could completely cripple the economy.
There is no need to go into details of what changed the situation. The US was attacked and the indices that were supposed to bring Pakistan down actually became its assets.
The afghan conflict eventually would have destroyed Pakistan, if it had continued the way it was going. The Mujahideen were the worst thing that could happen to a country. The scum of the earth Taliban, and the fanatics that were pulling Pakistan down before 2001 became the bargaining chips for Pakistan and the rest is history.
If I comment on this entire article, I will probably have to write an article of the same length and here I would just comment on one more thing.
“Musharraf became an unlikely hero. Sharif’s attempt to do away with him was met with an announcement from the cockpit, “Nobody can sack me.”
What Nawaz was doing in Pakistan, was historic in nature. He is a man of limited capabilities but people around him were willing to take the army on and ham shackle it into a constitution abiding entity. He and his Punjabi industrialist colleagues had correctly visualized that without the support from the Indian capital, they and the Pakistani economy would not survive for long. There was no other source of capital available then and all the markets were shrinking for Pakistan. In terms of international relations, the congress government in India in an effective display of diplomacy has sidelined Pakistan in to a second tier power of the area or just another Bangladesh. Then came the Indian Taliban.
The RSS/BJP alliance destroyed all the good work that Congress had put in. The nuke explosion was the most stupid thing that could ever happen in the Indian history and Natwar Singh recently admitted that it was a foolish thing to do.
The nuke explosion helped raise the militarism again in Pakistan. The Allah o Akber crowd gained momentum and as soon as Pakistan responded with its own nuke tests, Nawaz lost the initiative to the army that he had gained after successfully dismissing an army chief. It was something unheard of and was unbelievable, given the hold that army had on Pakistan.
The Kargil was an event stage managed by the Pak army to regain its control of the internal political situation and the logical outcome was the dismissal of Nawaz Sharif govt.
The Pak army won yet another power game with the help of the Indian Taliban.
Before Musharaf could say “Nobody can sack me” there was another Chief of the army staff who just woefully walked out of the office with his head down and telling his fellow generals to cool their horses as the army was in no position to take on Nawaz Sharif at that time. I am talking about Gen. Karamat who was dismissed by Nawaz.
Musharaf would have been dead meat by now, if precision bombing attacks had not taken place in the US.
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#18 Posted by amit on February 15, 2005 3:27:25 pm
Re:Romair#16
All that is good, but you have two key problems. One is that you do not have an effective succession plan. If something happens to Musharraf, no one knows who will come to power. Given the attempts on his life, this is not idle speculation. Seniority in the army may not work out as a replacement strategy, since whoever replaces him gets absolute power. That is too powerful an incentive. So you may end up with a power struggle, which is why the system in Pakistan is viewed as unstable.
Secondly Musharraf is inspiring other army officers to think about following in his footsteps, given the temptation of absolute power. This makes it likely that at a future date, if there is democracy, some other dictator will show up and try to repeat Musharraf`s actions.
All that is good, but you have two key problems. One is that you do not have an effective succession plan. If something happens to Musharraf, no one knows who will come to power. Given the attempts on his life, this is not idle speculation. Seniority in the army may not work out as a replacement strategy, since whoever replaces him gets absolute power. That is too powerful an incentive. So you may end up with a power struggle, which is why the system in Pakistan is viewed as unstable.
Secondly Musharraf is inspiring other army officers to think about following in his footsteps, given the temptation of absolute power. This makes it likely that at a future date, if there is democracy, some other dictator will show up and try to repeat Musharraf`s actions.
#17 Posted by Romair on February 15, 2005 3:00:26 pm
vivek #9: ``I am curious to know which Indian companies have invested in Pakistan. They certainly would not invest for the sake of labour shortage, India produces so many engineers that it will have a suplus labour for a long time to come.``
Vivek, first of all, you deserve credit for asking questions, about Pakistan. Rather than reaching conclusions, without having facts. Hopefully, more people will follow your example........
I might be able to answer your question, since I am busy in this area (albeit at a very small scale), at the moment, directly in Pakistan, and indirectly in India.
India is a gigantic IT powerhouse, in comparison to Pakistan. Pakistan is an average first-class cricket team. And India has just about entered Test cricket of IT. The reasons are too many to detail out here. Pakistan`s total IT export is, at best, 100 million dollars. India has four companies, who are now average around 1 billion dollars in export each.
However, the labor cost of projects in India is now increasing, specifically due to the demand. This is not dictated solely by the number of engineers. That is just one factor. It is dictated also by the number of engineers, at certain skill levels, in the specific areas where they are needed. 100 C programmers are useless if you need 1 Java programmer, immediately. If all the Java programmers are employed, at that time, or asking too much, where do you go.......
Due to this, there will always be certain areas, where there will be a skills shortage in every country, regardless of how much labor it has. And there will be certain areas, where the salaries will be too high in every country. Indian companies are bound to get certain contracts, due to their large network and international reputations, for which it doesn`t make sense to employ higher paid specifically skilled Indians, who are too high in demand, in India.
What do they do then?
Then can drop the contract, and let it go to Russia or China. Or they can take it, and hire a lower paid and available Chinese (or Pakistani) to do it, and keep part of the money. infact, I even know Pakistani company(s) that are hiring Chinese developers, due to lower pay.........
This has not started happening yet. But Pakistani companies are very eager to do it. And perhaps Indian companies are also (though I don`t think they are overly eager, since it is small potatoes for them).
Pakistani and Indian privater business sector, will always be quite a bit ahead of govts., in interaction, in comparison to the govts. Indian and Pakistani top level delegations in IT have toured each other`s country. And they meet each other, on an individual basis, quite often.............
However, I don`t know of any contracts that have been passed over. But that could start shortly........If Pakistan govt. is smart, it should really push it.......
Vivek, first of all, you deserve credit for asking questions, about Pakistan. Rather than reaching conclusions, without having facts. Hopefully, more people will follow your example........
I might be able to answer your question, since I am busy in this area (albeit at a very small scale), at the moment, directly in Pakistan, and indirectly in India.
India is a gigantic IT powerhouse, in comparison to Pakistan. Pakistan is an average first-class cricket team. And India has just about entered Test cricket of IT. The reasons are too many to detail out here. Pakistan`s total IT export is, at best, 100 million dollars. India has four companies, who are now average around 1 billion dollars in export each.
However, the labor cost of projects in India is now increasing, specifically due to the demand. This is not dictated solely by the number of engineers. That is just one factor. It is dictated also by the number of engineers, at certain skill levels, in the specific areas where they are needed. 100 C programmers are useless if you need 1 Java programmer, immediately. If all the Java programmers are employed, at that time, or asking too much, where do you go.......
Due to this, there will always be certain areas, where there will be a skills shortage in every country, regardless of how much labor it has. And there will be certain areas, where the salaries will be too high in every country. Indian companies are bound to get certain contracts, due to their large network and international reputations, for which it doesn`t make sense to employ higher paid specifically skilled Indians, who are too high in demand, in India.
What do they do then?
Then can drop the contract, and let it go to Russia or China. Or they can take it, and hire a lower paid and available Chinese (or Pakistani) to do it, and keep part of the money. infact, I even know Pakistani company(s) that are hiring Chinese developers, due to lower pay.........
This has not started happening yet. But Pakistani companies are very eager to do it. And perhaps Indian companies are also (though I don`t think they are overly eager, since it is small potatoes for them).
Pakistani and Indian privater business sector, will always be quite a bit ahead of govts., in interaction, in comparison to the govts. Indian and Pakistani top level delegations in IT have toured each other`s country. And they meet each other, on an individual basis, quite often.............
However, I don`t know of any contracts that have been passed over. But that could start shortly........If Pakistan govt. is smart, it should really push it.......
#16 Posted by Romair on February 15, 2005 2:39:04 pm
Actually, Musharraf has simultaneously been voted at both extremes, as a dictator, in the USA. I am not sure whether it matters, one way or the other, what US magazines think. They all have their clientle to sell to, and they need to push certain agendas. It would be interesting to see, which ones belonged to the neo-cons and which one did not. Musharraf, ironically, being quite popular with US govt. neo-cons...........If Musharraf were to recognize Israel today (which I think Pakistan should, within 67 borders), he would on top of the list of every magazine in the USA......
``NEW YORK: President Gen Pervez Musharraf has been declared one of the most influential figures of 2004 for his contributions to regional and world affairs. Eurasia Group in New York, in their annual ranking, identifies the top 50 individuals whose actions and accomplishments leave a profound impact on local, national and international politics during the year under consideration. The final ranking of President Musharraf among world leaders is forth. A distinguished panel of judges assisted the group in determining the final ranking of world leaders. Praising President Musharraf’s contributions in their final report, the Eurasia Group says: “ (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_13-2-2005_pg1_6)
So the USA media is just selling newspapers............
What does matter, however, is the economic growth rate of Pakistan. If Musharraf can keep it going, between 6-8% for ten years, Pakistan is bound to change. Ayub Khan did that, and Pakistan became a case-study of success at Harvard. Had Ayub not gotten into an unnecessary war with India (at his Foreign Minister Bhutto`s insistence), and had he not gotten his own family involved in politics and business, Pakistan would be sitting where Malaysia is today (read the comments of economist Omar Noman). Pakistan was, potentially, the original Asian tiger, and was ahead of Malaysia, Korea, Singapore etc. in the 60s. Infact, had Bhutto just continued with Ayub`s economic policies, Pakistan would be out of the third world.
Musharraf is not making the same mistakes. He has no intention of getting into a war with India. And his own family is oceans away from Pakistani politics. Most importantly, he has put in place a brilliant team of economists and financial managers. The best Pakistani brains in the world, and very dedicated ones. These individuals, and not Musharraf, are what is going to decide the future of Pakistan.
Shaukut Aziz, Ishrat Hussain, Hafeez Shiekh have done wonders. Pakistan may even hit 7%+ growth rate this year. Shaukut Aziz was voted Finance Manager of the year by a European magazine. And Ishrat Hussain was voted State Bank governor of the year, this year. This is what counts. Not where some US magazine ranks Musharraf.
This is also why political parties cannot get ten people on the streets in their rallies against the govt., even though everyone knowns it is a pseudo-dictatorship. Primarily because the upper-middle class (Chowk crowd) has become rich. My siblings, sitting in Pakistan, through their odd plot or two, are now worth more than I am. The middle class of Pakistan is finally seeing financial opportunities, inside Pakistan. The last time they saw them in Pakistan were during Ayub`s days (they saw them in Dubai etc. during the 70s and 80s. But not in Pakistan.) Hopefully, these opportunities will pass down to the poor class also........
Pakistan`s stock market had difficulty getting past 2000 in the 50 year history of Pakistan. Now it just crossed 7400. And all this is without Western foreign investment. Just through local investment and Arab investments............
People should keep their eye on two things: the economic growth rate, and the options for entertainment in a country. Both are increasing at a great rate, in Pakistan. Everything else, including democracy, secularism, religion, etc. is secondary. At least according to all surveys. Because you cannot buy food with these.............
``NEW YORK: President Gen Pervez Musharraf has been declared one of the most influential figures of 2004 for his contributions to regional and world affairs. Eurasia Group in New York, in their annual ranking, identifies the top 50 individuals whose actions and accomplishments leave a profound impact on local, national and international politics during the year under consideration. The final ranking of President Musharraf among world leaders is forth. A distinguished panel of judges assisted the group in determining the final ranking of world leaders. Praising President Musharraf’s contributions in their final report, the Eurasia Group says: “ (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_13-2-2005_pg1_6)
So the USA media is just selling newspapers............
What does matter, however, is the economic growth rate of Pakistan. If Musharraf can keep it going, between 6-8% for ten years, Pakistan is bound to change. Ayub Khan did that, and Pakistan became a case-study of success at Harvard. Had Ayub not gotten into an unnecessary war with India (at his Foreign Minister Bhutto`s insistence), and had he not gotten his own family involved in politics and business, Pakistan would be sitting where Malaysia is today (read the comments of economist Omar Noman). Pakistan was, potentially, the original Asian tiger, and was ahead of Malaysia, Korea, Singapore etc. in the 60s. Infact, had Bhutto just continued with Ayub`s economic policies, Pakistan would be out of the third world.
Musharraf is not making the same mistakes. He has no intention of getting into a war with India. And his own family is oceans away from Pakistani politics. Most importantly, he has put in place a brilliant team of economists and financial managers. The best Pakistani brains in the world, and very dedicated ones. These individuals, and not Musharraf, are what is going to decide the future of Pakistan.
Shaukut Aziz, Ishrat Hussain, Hafeez Shiekh have done wonders. Pakistan may even hit 7%+ growth rate this year. Shaukut Aziz was voted Finance Manager of the year by a European magazine. And Ishrat Hussain was voted State Bank governor of the year, this year. This is what counts. Not where some US magazine ranks Musharraf.
This is also why political parties cannot get ten people on the streets in their rallies against the govt., even though everyone knowns it is a pseudo-dictatorship. Primarily because the upper-middle class (Chowk crowd) has become rich. My siblings, sitting in Pakistan, through their odd plot or two, are now worth more than I am. The middle class of Pakistan is finally seeing financial opportunities, inside Pakistan. The last time they saw them in Pakistan were during Ayub`s days (they saw them in Dubai etc. during the 70s and 80s. But not in Pakistan.) Hopefully, these opportunities will pass down to the poor class also........
Pakistan`s stock market had difficulty getting past 2000 in the 50 year history of Pakistan. Now it just crossed 7400. And all this is without Western foreign investment. Just through local investment and Arab investments............
People should keep their eye on two things: the economic growth rate, and the options for entertainment in a country. Both are increasing at a great rate, in Pakistan. Everything else, including democracy, secularism, religion, etc. is secondary. At least according to all surveys. Because you cannot buy food with these.............
#15 Posted by nasah on February 15, 2005 1:07:07 pm
``So, how does President Musharraf qualify as a dictator? Only because some magazine in the US states,`` -- no not because a US magazine states.....
...but because .......“Two years after seizing power in a military coup that overthrew an elected government, Musharraf appointed himself president. He recently agreed to step down as head of the military, then reversed his decision”?
...but because .......“Two years after seizing power in a military coup that overthrew an elected government, Musharraf appointed himself president. He recently agreed to step down as head of the military, then reversed his decision”?
#14 Posted by vivek on February 15, 2005 12:55:12 pm
HP #13,
Ofcourse there is nothing classy on being the cheapest destination. Hopefully Indian companies would move up the ladder. Thanks for the numbers, but in India even people whose education is totally unrelated to IT are working in IT. So that`s what I meant by abundant labour.
Ofcourse there is nothing classy on being the cheapest destination. Hopefully Indian companies would move up the ladder. Thanks for the numbers, but in India even people whose education is totally unrelated to IT are working in IT. So that`s what I meant by abundant labour.
#13 Posted by HP on February 15, 2005 12:30:39 pm
#9 by vivek
“India produces so many engineers that it will have a surplus labour for a long time to come.”
Off Topic but here are some numbers.
India currently has about 850,000 IT related persons (all IT jobs including Helpdesk and Low-level coders :) (this will put some on fire. Glad that they will be filtered out!)
India currently is producing about 150,000 IT persons every year.
The need for IT persons in India is about 250,000 people per year so there is a shortfall of about 100,000 persons every year.
Right now India has about 60 %( $12.5B) of the outsourcing business, which at this time is about $19Billion out of the total worldwide IT business of $580 Billion. The outsourcing business would increase to $25 billion in the next 7 years but with not enough IT related graduates, Indian share of business would decrease.
What Indians are doing to offset this? They are setting up shops and training in China.
China currently has about 250,000 IT personal and it has the capacity to add 250,000 more every year so in the next 7 years it will catch up with India in terms of IT persons.
The Chinese IT persons are cheaper than Indians (Both cheap! nothing classy! Just kidding- no flame war please I am more interested in Ghairat issue right now). Indian companies are also looking in Pakistan to compensate for the shortfall and many companies showed up in Karachi.
PS. I am not using “IT graduate” as all IT persons are not IT graduate.
Need references for above info? Send me a confidential email, I will send you the paper:)
“India produces so many engineers that it will have a surplus labour for a long time to come.”
Off Topic but here are some numbers.
India currently has about 850,000 IT related persons (all IT jobs including Helpdesk and Low-level coders :) (this will put some on fire. Glad that they will be filtered out!)
India currently is producing about 150,000 IT persons every year.
The need for IT persons in India is about 250,000 people per year so there is a shortfall of about 100,000 persons every year.
Right now India has about 60 %( $12.5B) of the outsourcing business, which at this time is about $19Billion out of the total worldwide IT business of $580 Billion. The outsourcing business would increase to $25 billion in the next 7 years but with not enough IT related graduates, Indian share of business would decrease.
What Indians are doing to offset this? They are setting up shops and training in China.
China currently has about 250,000 IT personal and it has the capacity to add 250,000 more every year so in the next 7 years it will catch up with India in terms of IT persons.
The Chinese IT persons are cheaper than Indians (Both cheap! nothing classy! Just kidding- no flame war please I am more interested in Ghairat issue right now). Indian companies are also looking in Pakistan to compensate for the shortfall and many companies showed up in Karachi.
PS. I am not using “IT graduate” as all IT persons are not IT graduate.
Need references for above info? Send me a confidential email, I will send you the paper:)
#12 Posted by bbabu on February 15, 2005 12:01:30 pm
`` This is double-talk and extremely dangerous. There is every likelihood of Indians celebrating the disclosures, but wait a minute. How will it help us? And when was the last time we looked in the mirror? Do we truly believe that the West is sparing us because we do not have problems? No. The simple reason is that we are a bigger marketplace and the ‘civil war’ within our boundaries is too diverse and unlikely to make any radical difference to the West. ``
`` Interestingly, it is the West that has buffered dictators and strife within nations, the latter giving rise to terrorism that it is now purportedly fighting against. America is the largest dictatorship in the world today. There is greater racism there than there was in South Africa; its crime figures are staggering; in terms of nuclear arsenal, it beats everyone else. Worst of all, it encourages disputes. ``
What is your problem with American nuclear arsenal ? They have not used it for 60 years.
`` Pakistan is being looked at for the second possibility, but with some element of caution. Which is why in a ridiculous manner, the dictator is sometimes ticked off for abetting terrorism. A dictator ought to squash dissent. That is what King Gyanendra has set out to do with the Maoist groups. So, how does President Musharraf qualify as a dictator? Only because some magazine in the US states, “Two years after seizing power in a military coup that overthrew an elected government, Musharraf appointed himself president. He recently agreed to step down as head of the military, then reversed his decision”? ``
He is a dictator because he makes decisions in an arbitrary manner.
`` The idea behind the current double whammy is devious. If Musharraf is seen as somebody who forcibly came to power to restore order in his country and in this capacity it would be incumbent on him to talk to Indians, then as head of a terrorist state he would be out of bounds with a license to kill. By isolating the opponent, one elevates him.``
???
`` There are many interesting contradictions his life and career. In a largely feudal set-up, he comes from a family of working parents. It is said that he was promoted in rank because he was not from the ruling Punjabi class and would pose no threat. But what Nawaz Sharif forgot is that not all soldiers are willing to suffer the humiliation of being asked to retreat. Post Kargil, Musharraf became an unlikely hero. Sharif’s attempt to do away with him was met with an announcement from the cockpit, “Nobody can sack me.” Was it bravado? It seems like conviction, because the people were with him then. He promised to get back the looted monies. He promised equal rights for the minorities, the first leader since Jinnah to do so. ``
What difference does the working class background of a leader have ? I am not sure anyone is interested in the backgrounds of Hitler, Stalin and Mao.
Please spare me the propaganda about Nawaz Sharif being responsible for the retreat from Kargil. Are you a lackey for the Pakistani military establishment ? Pakistani Army could have defied Nawaz Sharif`s order to retreat from Kargil. They were getting beat. They made a virtue out of necessity.
#11 Posted by freesoul on February 15, 2005 12:00:06 pm
Re: # 8
I guess Musharraf is more equivalent of Taliban, whom Afghans loathe but consider as a necessary evil, for providing security.
I guess Musharraf is more equivalent of Taliban, whom Afghans loathe but consider as a necessary evil, for providing security.
#10 Posted by amit on February 15, 2005 11:50:30 am
Re:Mantolives#8
Indians do not have wet dreams of Pakistani collapse any more. It might have been true 30 years back, but not any more. Now we only have wet dreams of becoming millionaires (and maybe Aishwarya Rai :-) ), and we hardly look forward to the prospect of dealing with a meltdown next door. If you see, India is already agreeing to the gas pipelines through Pakistan and there is talk of opening the bus service in Kashmir and elsewhere. Most Indians ignored the CIA report and didnt bring it up anywhere in this forum or elsewhere. So this is just FVs way of provoking an Indo-Pak quarrel.
Indians do not have wet dreams of Pakistani collapse any more. It might have been true 30 years back, but not any more. Now we only have wet dreams of becoming millionaires (and maybe Aishwarya Rai :-) ), and we hardly look forward to the prospect of dealing with a meltdown next door. If you see, India is already agreeing to the gas pipelines through Pakistan and there is talk of opening the bus service in Kashmir and elsewhere. Most Indians ignored the CIA report and didnt bring it up anywhere in this forum or elsewhere. So this is just FVs way of provoking an Indo-Pak quarrel.
#9 Posted by vivek on February 15, 2005 11:41:51 am
``America is the largest dictatorship in the world today.``
That`s pure nonsense. Not only is George W. Bush democratically elected, but also the USA is one of the most liberal societies on earth. Otherwise so many foreigners would not want to become its citizens. Compare that to any of the middle eastern countries where no Indian in his right mind ever wants to a citizen.
Mantolives #8,
From the article you cut and pasted ``Indian IT firms are gradually moving in because their own software economy has experienced labor shortages and price increases.``
I am curious to know which Indian companies have invested in Pakistan. They certainly would not invest for the sake of labour shortage, India produces so many engineers that it will have a suplus labour for a long time to come.
That`s pure nonsense. Not only is George W. Bush democratically elected, but also the USA is one of the most liberal societies on earth. Otherwise so many foreigners would not want to become its citizens. Compare that to any of the middle eastern countries where no Indian in his right mind ever wants to a citizen.
Mantolives #8,
From the article you cut and pasted ``Indian IT firms are gradually moving in because their own software economy has experienced labor shortages and price increases.``
I am curious to know which Indian companies have invested in Pakistan. They certainly would not invest for the sake of labour shortage, India produces so many engineers that it will have a suplus labour for a long time to come.
#8 Posted by MantoLives on February 15, 2005 11:11:10 am
Excellent Article Farzana... Actually as a friend put it recently... there is a wishful thinking on the part of some Indians and their circle of influence .... that Pakistan is on the verge of some kind of collapse....
In 2015... CIA will proved wrong... and all the wetdreams of Pakistan`s enemies will be exactly that wetdreams... I have always suspected the intelligence level of the people working at CIA... is there a prescribed stupidity test for them ? No wonder 9/11 could happen in the US.... As for Musharraf ... being amongst the 10 worst dictators... funny... some how I felt freer and more liberated under this dictator... bad as he is for being a dictator and I oppose him on constitutional grounds... press and media have freer than any time I have seen in my life time... religious minorities are better off than any time I remember ... not bad for the worst dictator... And even Benazir and Nawaz Sharif accept today that this `worst dictator`` has the interest of the country close to his heart...
Honestly I have never been more optimistic... there is genuine change in the air... and Pakistan is definitely not heading the direction idiots assume it is...
Somebody is about to feel really stupid for putting that foot in the mouth... as they routinely do... from Day 1... Pakistan is supposed to have folded up and crumpled... but that just doesn`t seem to happen does it?
COMMENTARY
Karachi Awakens
By Anthony Mitchell
E-Commerce Times
02/15/05 5:00 AM PT
``These are the good times for Pakistan,`` said the Cathay Pacific manager in Los Angeles, who is originally from Karachi. Decades of neglect are being compensated (and in some cases overcompensated) by the government of President Pervez Musharraf. Investment is pouring in from countries in the Persian Gulf, from India, and especially from China.
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Megacities with populations larger than entire countries are changing the physical and economic landscape of the globe. Megacities have economic engines that are powering the future of the world. Megacities have larger markets than many developed countries.
The megacities are coming. They are the future. They are here now.
Karachi, Pakistan`s, population of 14 million is augmented by an equal number of people in nearby satellite towns. The Karachi area has more people than Canada and an airport smaller than modest U.S. towns such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Indianapolis, Indiana, or Tallahassee, Florida.
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A Quick Quiz
Landing in Karachi today is the economic equivalent of visiting a huge spaceship moments before blastoff. You can feel the engines rumbling, the ground shaking, and you only have a few seconds to either jump off or be rocketed into the stratosphere.
What city has the fastest growing stock market in the world? Karachi.
What English language high school consistently tops out the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores? Karachi Grammar School.
What country has the fastest growing cell phone market? Pakistan.
The statistics go on and on.
Reading statistics is no substitute for seeing a place. So I stuffed my American preconceptions into a suitcase and headed out from Seattle.
Good Times
``These are the good times for Pakistan,`` said the Cathay Pacific manager in Los Angeles, who is originally from Karachi. Decades of neglect are being compensated (and in some cases overcompensated) by the government of President Pervez Musharraf. Investment is pouring in from countries in the Persian Gulf, from India, and especially from China.
China is building a massive port in a Karachi suburb that sits at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. China sees Pakistan as a means to expand its market presence throughout the region.
Only U.S. firms, burdened by preconceptions, are holding back. American firms are afraid to even market computer hardware and software to a rapidly expanding market that is flush with cash and ready to spend.
Indian IT firms are gradually moving in because their own software economy has experienced labor shortages and price increases. Pakistan is 30 percent cheaper than India for information technology outsourcing. According to Karachi-based Alt-Source Communications, Karachi alone has 300,000 English-speaking job seekers in the 18 to 35 year old range who are interested in and qualified for call center work.
Arriving in Karachi
The plane touches down in Karachi in the middle of the night. The fashions here are different than the U.S., but the people are warm, friendly and surprisingly gentle. In Indian airports, it is a struggle to keep control of your baggage. Here nobody bothers me.
My government-supplied escorts are noticeably absent. Strike one. After half an hour of waiting, I hop in a cab and go to the hotel where my government tour planners had assured me a room. Strike two -- with lots more to come. If this happens to you, take it in stride. The private sector is where the action is.
The government here is remarkably hands-off -- perhaps a little too hands off. In India, when there is a problem, the government will often become involved in a major way. In Pakistan, the reaction is often for government to pull back or to engage in negotiations with disaffected groups.
Expo Pakistan 2005
I`m here to attend a national export-oriented trade show from February 2 through February 6 and then to screen software and call center facilities for possible outsourcing contracts from the U.S. Expo Pakistan 2005 is a big deal here because large international trade fairs do not happen very often in this country. I happened to be passing through here when the last one was held, 35 years ago.
The Pakistanis don`t need to look very far to see how trade shows can function if they are done well. In New Delhi there are 10 to 12 major trade shows every year for IT firms, with other metro regions hosting their own lavish displays. Trade shows are a well-developed industry in India and the Indians are good at organizing them.
The ultimate intellectual trade show is India`s Kolkata Book Fair. It is held in February every year, with specially constructed temporary buildings brimming with rare titles and stampeding crowds of intellectuals for whom the book fair is the ultimate literary pilgrimage. Who needs Stratford-on-Avon when the Kolkata Book Fair beckons?
A Tale of Two Cities
Comparisons between Kolkata and Karachi are inevitable. As megacities of similar size straddling opposite sides of the Indian subcontinent, they have both been languishing in economic obscurity until now. Both their governments have committed themselves to turning things around, to starting the economic engines of their huge labor forces, and to create the future rather than perpetually chase after it.
Both megacities have image problems, but Kolkata`s intellectuals are not afraid to wax poetic about the joys inspired by their much-loved and long neglected metropolis. In contrast, rapid social change in Karachi has left many people here with an identity crisis and self esteem issues. The fact that visas to the U.S. from Pakistan are now so hard to obtain is not helping the situation.
Both megacities will succeed. But Karachi has a better urban infrastructure than any big Indian metro, less traffic, far better tax policies, and less religious tension. Wages for manual work are higher than in India and there is less extreme poverty here. The fact that alcohol is rare contributes to a happier, healthier and more productive populace.
Karachi has a vibrant alcohol-free nightlife. The residents here love to eat out and then go down to the beaches. There are throngs of well-mannered young men and women strolling around on the beaches until well past 2 a.m.
The city`s main beaches are well lit and, in my experience, are safe for Americans alone. I`ve been down there late at night with fellow Rutgers graduates. Rutgers alumni appear plentiful enough and successful enough to be in a position to establish a permanent alumni clubhouse in one of the neighborhoods near the beach.
Religious Tolerance
A big question about Pakistan is the status of religious minorities here. The roughly 600,000 Hindus in Karachi are part of the economic elite, have almost assimilated, and have generally adopted lifestyles similar to the larger population -- much to the bane of vegetarians who visit here from the U.S. and India.
Christians and a smattering of Zoroastrians run the primary and secondary schools, which contributes to the acceptance that those groups experience. The Christians who I talked with all spoke about how comfortable they feel here. Everyone who I spoke with was respectful of the U.S. and Americans, even though they did not always understand or agree with U.S. policies.
On February 2, 2005, on my second full night in Karachi, I`m whisked off to the expo to hear President Musharraf deliver the opening remarks. His bodyguards are the best part of the show. As a front-line country in the ``War on Terror,`` there have been attempts on his life. Despite those attempts, the former commando has been traveling widely and meeting large numbers of people up and down the country as if he was campaigning for office. His bodyguards make that happen.
Democrats for Musharraf
In a rough survey of about 100 people that I conducted here, every single person spoke favorably of Musharraf. Most said that Musharraf is just what the country needs right now. The word ``modest`` is often used to describe him. Some would preface their endorsements by saying: ``As an avowed democrat ...``
One of Musharraf`s themes is openness and transparency in government. In the upcoming privatization of a large share of the government-owned telephone company, for example, he is having the bids opened and inspected by journalists who have been critical of the government -- a public process that we have yet to see in the U.S.
The press`s openness to criticize Musharraf is remarkable and would have been unthinkable five years ago. The criticisms that I`m most interested in are those having to do with the pace of land reform and the social consequences of Pakistan not having moved forward as fast or as extensively as India has done with the land reform efforts undertaken since both countries gained their independence in 1947.
As Musharraf began his opening remarks at Pakistan Expo 2005, a small explosion occurred between us. There is a popping noise and a burning object falls from the ceiling. Without flinching, Musharraf assures the crowd that it is not a gunshot, telling everyone that he can distinguish gunfire from other sounds. The crowd laughs. It turns out that a lamp overheated and burst.
Stability
Musharraf emphasizes the continuity of purpose and policies that his government is using to create a stable business environment (something that is sadly lacking in the taxation policies of neighboring countries). Although the United States is contributing to stability in Pakistan, there are few Americans in the Expo crowd.
Musharraf spoke of moderation in Islam. Islam serves as a unifying force in what is actually a surprisingly secular country, something that none of Pakistan`s neighbors except China can say about themselves.
In Musharraf`s speeches on Urdu language television stations, he is much more blunt than he is in English. ``We have a problem,`` Musharraf tells his Urdu audiences, speaking in frank terms about the issues facing Pakistan and how the country needs to change.
``Come visit Pakistan,`` Musharraf tells the crowd at Expo. If you visit, you will be pleasantly surprised, he adds.
I know, because I am. I`ve stayed on after the Expo to gather practical information on how both IT and non-IT firms operate, information that will be presented here later.
In 2015... CIA will proved wrong... and all the wetdreams of Pakistan`s enemies will be exactly that wetdreams... I have always suspected the intelligence level of the people working at CIA... is there a prescribed stupidity test for them ? No wonder 9/11 could happen in the US.... As for Musharraf ... being amongst the 10 worst dictators... funny... some how I felt freer and more liberated under this dictator... bad as he is for being a dictator and I oppose him on constitutional grounds... press and media have freer than any time I have seen in my life time... religious minorities are better off than any time I remember ... not bad for the worst dictator... And even Benazir and Nawaz Sharif accept today that this `worst dictator`` has the interest of the country close to his heart...
Honestly I have never been more optimistic... there is genuine change in the air... and Pakistan is definitely not heading the direction idiots assume it is...
Somebody is about to feel really stupid for putting that foot in the mouth... as they routinely do... from Day 1... Pakistan is supposed to have folded up and crumpled... but that just doesn`t seem to happen does it?
COMMENTARY
Karachi Awakens
By Anthony Mitchell
E-Commerce Times
02/15/05 5:00 AM PT
``These are the good times for Pakistan,`` said the Cathay Pacific manager in Los Angeles, who is originally from Karachi. Decades of neglect are being compensated (and in some cases overcompensated) by the government of President Pervez Musharraf. Investment is pouring in from countries in the Persian Gulf, from India, and especially from China.
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Megacities with populations larger than entire countries are changing the physical and economic landscape of the globe. Megacities have economic engines that are powering the future of the world. Megacities have larger markets than many developed countries.
The megacities are coming. They are the future. They are here now.
Karachi, Pakistan`s, population of 14 million is augmented by an equal number of people in nearby satellite towns. The Karachi area has more people than Canada and an airport smaller than modest U.S. towns such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Indianapolis, Indiana, or Tallahassee, Florida.
on error resume next For mp_i=11 To 6 Step -1 If Not IsObject(CreateObject(``ShockwaveFlash.ShockwaveFlash.`` & mp_i)) Then Else mp_swver=mp_i Exit For End If Next
A Quick Quiz
Landing in Karachi today is the economic equivalent of visiting a huge spaceship moments before blastoff. You can feel the engines rumbling, the ground shaking, and you only have a few seconds to either jump off or be rocketed into the stratosphere.
What city has the fastest growing stock market in the world? Karachi.
What English language high school consistently tops out the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores? Karachi Grammar School.
What country has the fastest growing cell phone market? Pakistan.
The statistics go on and on.
Reading statistics is no substitute for seeing a place. So I stuffed my American preconceptions into a suitcase and headed out from Seattle.
Good Times
``These are the good times for Pakistan,`` said the Cathay Pacific manager in Los Angeles, who is originally from Karachi. Decades of neglect are being compensated (and in some cases overcompensated) by the government of President Pervez Musharraf. Investment is pouring in from countries in the Persian Gulf, from India, and especially from China.
China is building a massive port in a Karachi suburb that sits at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. China sees Pakistan as a means to expand its market presence throughout the region.
Only U.S. firms, burdened by preconceptions, are holding back. American firms are afraid to even market computer hardware and software to a rapidly expanding market that is flush with cash and ready to spend.
Indian IT firms are gradually moving in because their own software economy has experienced labor shortages and price increases. Pakistan is 30 percent cheaper than India for information technology outsourcing. According to Karachi-based Alt-Source Communications, Karachi alone has 300,000 English-speaking job seekers in the 18 to 35 year old range who are interested in and qualified for call center work.
Arriving in Karachi
The plane touches down in Karachi in the middle of the night. The fashions here are different than the U.S., but the people are warm, friendly and surprisingly gentle. In Indian airports, it is a struggle to keep control of your baggage. Here nobody bothers me.
My government-supplied escorts are noticeably absent. Strike one. After half an hour of waiting, I hop in a cab and go to the hotel where my government tour planners had assured me a room. Strike two -- with lots more to come. If this happens to you, take it in stride. The private sector is where the action is.
The government here is remarkably hands-off -- perhaps a little too hands off. In India, when there is a problem, the government will often become involved in a major way. In Pakistan, the reaction is often for government to pull back or to engage in negotiations with disaffected groups.
Expo Pakistan 2005
I`m here to attend a national export-oriented trade show from February 2 through February 6 and then to screen software and call center facilities for possible outsourcing contracts from the U.S. Expo Pakistan 2005 is a big deal here because large international trade fairs do not happen very often in this country. I happened to be passing through here when the last one was held, 35 years ago.
The Pakistanis don`t need to look very far to see how trade shows can function if they are done well. In New Delhi there are 10 to 12 major trade shows every year for IT firms, with other metro regions hosting their own lavish displays. Trade shows are a well-developed industry in India and the Indians are good at organizing them.
The ultimate intellectual trade show is India`s Kolkata Book Fair. It is held in February every year, with specially constructed temporary buildings brimming with rare titles and stampeding crowds of intellectuals for whom the book fair is the ultimate literary pilgrimage. Who needs Stratford-on-Avon when the Kolkata Book Fair beckons?
A Tale of Two Cities
Comparisons between Kolkata and Karachi are inevitable. As megacities of similar size straddling opposite sides of the Indian subcontinent, they have both been languishing in economic obscurity until now. Both their governments have committed themselves to turning things around, to starting the economic engines of their huge labor forces, and to create the future rather than perpetually chase after it.
Both megacities have image problems, but Kolkata`s intellectuals are not afraid to wax poetic about the joys inspired by their much-loved and long neglected metropolis. In contrast, rapid social change in Karachi has left many people here with an identity crisis and self esteem issues. The fact that visas to the U.S. from Pakistan are now so hard to obtain is not helping the situation.
Both megacities will succeed. But Karachi has a better urban infrastructure than any big Indian metro, less traffic, far better tax policies, and less religious tension. Wages for manual work are higher than in India and there is less extreme poverty here. The fact that alcohol is rare contributes to a happier, healthier and more productive populace.
Karachi has a vibrant alcohol-free nightlife. The residents here love to eat out and then go down to the beaches. There are throngs of well-mannered young men and women strolling around on the beaches until well past 2 a.m.
The city`s main beaches are well lit and, in my experience, are safe for Americans alone. I`ve been down there late at night with fellow Rutgers graduates. Rutgers alumni appear plentiful enough and successful enough to be in a position to establish a permanent alumni clubhouse in one of the neighborhoods near the beach.
Religious Tolerance
A big question about Pakistan is the status of religious minorities here. The roughly 600,000 Hindus in Karachi are part of the economic elite, have almost assimilated, and have generally adopted lifestyles similar to the larger population -- much to the bane of vegetarians who visit here from the U.S. and India.
Christians and a smattering of Zoroastrians run the primary and secondary schools, which contributes to the acceptance that those groups experience. The Christians who I talked with all spoke about how comfortable they feel here. Everyone who I spoke with was respectful of the U.S. and Americans, even though they did not always understand or agree with U.S. policies.
On February 2, 2005, on my second full night in Karachi, I`m whisked off to the expo to hear President Musharraf deliver the opening remarks. His bodyguards are the best part of the show. As a front-line country in the ``War on Terror,`` there have been attempts on his life. Despite those attempts, the former commando has been traveling widely and meeting large numbers of people up and down the country as if he was campaigning for office. His bodyguards make that happen.
Democrats for Musharraf
In a rough survey of about 100 people that I conducted here, every single person spoke favorably of Musharraf. Most said that Musharraf is just what the country needs right now. The word ``modest`` is often used to describe him. Some would preface their endorsements by saying: ``As an avowed democrat ...``
One of Musharraf`s themes is openness and transparency in government. In the upcoming privatization of a large share of the government-owned telephone company, for example, he is having the bids opened and inspected by journalists who have been critical of the government -- a public process that we have yet to see in the U.S.
The press`s openness to criticize Musharraf is remarkable and would have been unthinkable five years ago. The criticisms that I`m most interested in are those having to do with the pace of land reform and the social consequences of Pakistan not having moved forward as fast or as extensively as India has done with the land reform efforts undertaken since both countries gained their independence in 1947.
As Musharraf began his opening remarks at Pakistan Expo 2005, a small explosion occurred between us. There is a popping noise and a burning object falls from the ceiling. Without flinching, Musharraf assures the crowd that it is not a gunshot, telling everyone that he can distinguish gunfire from other sounds. The crowd laughs. It turns out that a lamp overheated and burst.
Stability
Musharraf emphasizes the continuity of purpose and policies that his government is using to create a stable business environment (something that is sadly lacking in the taxation policies of neighboring countries). Although the United States is contributing to stability in Pakistan, there are few Americans in the Expo crowd.
Musharraf spoke of moderation in Islam. Islam serves as a unifying force in what is actually a surprisingly secular country, something that none of Pakistan`s neighbors except China can say about themselves.
In Musharraf`s speeches on Urdu language television stations, he is much more blunt than he is in English. ``We have a problem,`` Musharraf tells his Urdu audiences, speaking in frank terms about the issues facing Pakistan and how the country needs to change.
``Come visit Pakistan,`` Musharraf tells the crowd at Expo. If you visit, you will be pleasantly surprised, he adds.
I know, because I am. I`ve stayed on after the Expo to gather practical information on how both IT and non-IT firms operate, information that will be presented here later.
#7 Posted by stuka on February 15, 2005 11:08:43 am
``In today’s global scenario, democracies institutionalise dictatorial policies and terrorism works as legitimate political dissent``
So are you saying that it is okay for Sunni ``political advocates or dissenters `` to kill a few dozen Shia worshippers in a mosque in Basra simply because the democratic US organized an election in Iraq in which the Shia participated?
So are you saying that it is okay for Sunni ``political advocates or dissenters `` to kill a few dozen Shia worshippers in a mosque in Basra simply because the democratic US organized an election in Iraq in which the Shia participated?
#6 Posted by stuka on February 15, 2005 11:04:32 am
``America is the largest dictatorship in the world today. There is greater racism there than there was in South Africa; its crime figures are staggering; in terms of nuclear arsenal, it beats everyone else.``
That is rhetorical bunkum. How is the US a dictatorship? Bush won the popular vote. Tthe crime figures in the US are staggering compared to what? Crime figures in most countries are ``staggering``. And the US has way less racism that most West European nations. Look at what the Dutch did after Theo Van Gogh was killed. And I am not even getting into the racist mentality of sand niggers and gooks.
That is rhetorical bunkum. How is the US a dictatorship? Bush won the popular vote. Tthe crime figures in the US are staggering compared to what? Crime figures in most countries are ``staggering``. And the US has way less racism that most West European nations. Look at what the Dutch did after Theo Van Gogh was killed. And I am not even getting into the racist mentality of sand niggers and gooks.
#5 Posted by kaurasach on February 15, 2005 10:59:49 am
This is nature (human) at work. Stop crying. Whosoever is in power plays with same rules. Pakis use the same tricks to subjugate the rife in their homeland. Injuns do the same to win elections. Arab states do the same. It is all about wealth. Yes, USA uses and breeds dictators and states in Middle East for selfish gains. Israel is the pawn in the same game of the West. Now they control and colonize and loot without permanent conquests. This way it is less costly and more convenient. Create a dictator, and then destroy him when he becomes useless. Saddam Hussein is the perfect example.
Now who is worse, the Americans who play these idiots and low characters who like to be played and appease their masters?
Comparing Musharaf and Paki terrorism to some incident in Tokyo is naive and dumb at best. One was a local cult. The other is breeding cesspool of international terrorism.
There is nothing absolute in the world. It is all relative. One terrorist act in Tokyo doesn`t justify an immoral regime in Pakistan.
Now who is worse, the Americans who play these idiots and low characters who like to be played and appease their masters?
Comparing Musharaf and Paki terrorism to some incident in Tokyo is naive and dumb at best. One was a local cult. The other is breeding cesspool of international terrorism.
There is nothing absolute in the world. It is all relative. One terrorist act in Tokyo doesn`t justify an immoral regime in Pakistan.
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