F-16s to Pakistan—Why Now?

The basic premise of this article is non-sensical although Mr. Ghauri has always been a no-non-sense guy.

The basic premise that America is propping up India as a superpower to counter China is non-Sense. China CANNOT be countered through a military threat of any size; because the nature of threat is not militaristic in nature but it is economic. Why would America help create a competitor that shows no inhibitions about becoming great. But the times have changed. The colonial era, when economics were controlled through military power has passed a century ago. Americans are learning this lesson the hard way in Afghnistan and Iraq.

The issue of supplying weapons to India is not as big as you have made it out to be. In my opinion there are two reasons for that:

1. Europeans have started re-selling weapons to China despite a US imposed sanction. They have told Americans to shove their sanctions where sun doesn`t rise. That leaves no option for Americans to sell its weapons elsewhere like India and Pakistan (potentially hot markets) or risk its manufacturers going out of business.

2. I think the Americans are trying their best from keeping India from buying oil from Iran (thru pipeline or even thru the sea), where Iran has promised to supply oil to only those who would buy it with Euros instead of US dollars. Iranians would supply oil cheaper than market rate and along with Iran, Russia and South America, especially Venzuella are opting for this option. That would sink the American economy to the abyss with in 5 years. The common sense, however, tells hindu baniya that even if he is given American technology and manufacturing liscences he would still need oil to support its economy. Irony of this whole situation is that, the Hindu baniya has become the Shylock who wants his pound of flesh too.


Trust me, I am no fan of India and I don`t see any potential of India becoming any kind of power in next 50 years at least. The most they will do will be to start manufacturing toys and dollar-store stuff while chinese will move into more sophisticated manufacturing arena.

Re: Romair & bbabu variour
Gentelmen!
Please don’t quarrel about the insignificant. We have to work hard to enrich the white man :)

Regards,

Faruk

yaar, the idea behind the Pakistani Jf-17 is to provide us with a jet to replace the ageing jets in our fleet. The current f-16 batch and the new one will be the sophisticated core of the air force and the JF-17 will be the `unsophisticated` core of the air force. It will replacce our aging migs, f-7`s, etc.

Re: # 54

Asfand...baby... my MAN... CHILL dude!

You`re gonna chase `em away with your blistering insights.

Let them play with fire if they don`t believe it can hurt them... they`ll know soon.

M`as-salaam!

Re: #49

Well put, sajal!

Peace

Re: #48,

Romair, my man!

I`ve heard so much about you... you`re definitely worth all the praises coming your way!

M`as-salaam

Re: # 63
You have put things in right perspective.USA is an imperialist country.It is not worried about India or Pakistan`s welfare....sooner both these countries realize,better it will be.

Its like killing two birds with one shot....selling its products and also keeping the tension alive between India and Pakistan and look at the timing...when both countries are trying to ease out the tension and hoping to improve relations!!

THIS SEEMS TO BE IN THE CONTINUATION OF U.S.A.`s POLICIES TOWARDS COMPETITION. WHEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN BECAME INDEPENDENT, THE ENEMY WAS COMMUNISM. THE USA, THEN TRIED TO WOO BOTH INDIA AND PAKISTAN AND EVEN OFFERED INDIA A CHANCE FOR A P.S. IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL.
NEHRU, HOWEVER, SOCIALIST AS HE WAS, IGNORED THESE OVERTURES, AND TRIED TO DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM THE USA, BY ALIGNING WITH THE U.S.S.R., WITHOUT ADOPTING COMMUNISM. NEHRU ALSO RAISED THE SLOGAN OF `HINDI-CHINI BHAI BHAI` BUT DUE TO FAILED FOREIGN POLICIES:- THE INDO-CHINA WAR.
THE U.S.A., IN THE MEANWHILE, SUCCEDED IN ITS FREINDSHIP WITH PAKISTAN AND FOUND IT USEFUL. HOWEVER, NOW WITH CHINA BEING A MAJOR COMPETITION, THE U.S.A. FINDS INDIA, MORE THAN PAKISTAN, READY TO BALANCE THE POWER RATIO IN ASIA. IF IT HAD NOT BEEN FOR PAKISTAN`S GOOD RELATIONS WITH CHINA, AND ITS ECONOMIC CONDITION, PAKISTAN WOULD HAVE BEEN BETER SUITED FOR THIS ROLE.
THE U.S.A. IS GOOD AT PICKING UP TOYS FOR ITS PLAY. BOTH COUNTRIES, INDIA AND PAKISTAN, MUST WATCH THEIR STEPS.

Industry News
Lockheed hands out layoff notices to F-16 workers




Thursday, January 20, 2005 - About 220 workers on the F-16 production line were handed layoff notices Wednesday by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co. in Fort Worth as the defense contractor begins cuts in its F-16 Fighting Falcon program.

The layoffs, the first round of many, follow three years of job growth in the F-16 program. The company has about 15,500 employees - about 6,000 of which were working on the F-16s last year.

It is the first wave of 800 to 1,000 layoffs of F-16 workers planned this year.

All of the employees affected are aircraft assemblers, mechanics, painters and other production workers. Some may still be reassigned to other duties and all others will get outplacement services.

Lockheed gave out 60-day warning notices to the assembly line workers, who will leave the company in March.

The Fort Worth-based company is moving out of the F-16 fighter jet`s development and initial production phases and not as many workers are needed.

Lockheed Martin has a backlog of about 200 planes but they did not book any new orders for F-16 fighter jets in 2004.

Without new orders, production of the F-16 would end in late 2008.

Re: # 60

Here is a small analyses on the economics behind these offers:

F-16 sale: The economics behind it


Sunday, 27 March , 2005, 08:39

Washington: The Bush administration`s decision to sell the F-16 jet planes to Pakistan has as much to do with economic reasons as it perhaps pertained to politics, security and American strategic calculations in South Asia and the Asia Pacific.



The Bethesda-based Lockheed that makes the multi role combat plane had made no bones of the fact that it was looking for more orders if its plant in Fort Worth, which employs about 5,000 workers, is not to suffer further shutdowns. The Dallas, Texas plant had an estimated 5,800 workers in January 2004 but this January this was down to 5,000 and by next January was scheduled to be down to 4,000 according to Tom Jurkowsky, Spokesman of Lockheed Martin as quoted in The Washington Post.

In announcing the decision to sell F-16s to Pakistan and in the process reversing a 15-year ban on the sale the Bush administration also made it known that it had no specific number of units that would be delivered to Pakistan. One figure had that number to 24 but administration officials made it known that there was no limit. Further it was clarified that what was heading the way of Pakistan were not those old versions sitting on a tarmac in Tuscon, Arizona that were originally intended for delivery some years ago.

What is being pointed out is that the Fort Worth plant delivered its last of its F-16s to the US Air Force last month but that the plant is still building planes for Israel, Chile, the UAE and Poland. According to The Post, Lockheed has back orders for about 200 fighters with the last one coming off the production line in 2008.

Lockheed has thus far supplied the F-16s to some 24 countries with a price tag of between $30 million and $40 million per copy. This, of course, it is being pointed out, will vary depending upon the kind of upgrades that are requested and allowed. At times the spares and other support equipment could add up to 150 per cent more of the original price tag.

In the context of the F-16 sales to Pakistan, it is pointed out that Lockheed has a bigger issue or opportunity on its hands - the ability to bid and be able to supply another 100 or more of the F-16 jets if India opted to go in this direction. And the Bush administration has also made the point that the F-16 is not the last word on the subject when it came to sophisticated multi role fighter jets. And other companies in the jet fighters business like Boeing will stand to benefit.

``That`s not just F-16s. It could be F-18s,`` remarked a senior administration official stressing that while it was up to India to decide from which country it wanted the jets, Washington has decided that the US will compete and is allowed to compete for that sale.

Romair #50

``Pakistan cannot manufacture solid state electronic components, jet engines or any sophisticated components.``

`` You are correct. Pakistan cannot. Neither can India, for that matter. The engine in India`s LCA prototype is a GE F404 engine. And India is having difficulty replacing it. There are only a couple of countries that can produce aircraft engines. Even Russians had difficulties with turbine mettalurgy. ``

Thanks for providing information I already knew.

`` However, Pakistan does not need to produce its own engines. It can buy them from China. Which can design them under license from Russia. Or it can buy the same GE f404 from USA. This is what Pakistan does at the moment, with engines.....``

China is importing jet engines from Russia. I am sure India buys enough weapons from Russia to prevent Chinese resales to Pakistan.


`` As stated above, engines are purchased. One does not need to assemble every part of a plane. Other than USA, France, UK and Russia, no one does that. Even France and UK now develops jointly with the rest of Europe on its Airbus and Eurofighter etc.``

You need to produce critical components. Otherwise you have no freedom to export weapon systems.

`` Pakistan does develop some electronic components. But electronics is a worldwide industry. There are plenty of parts available. One builds some and buys the rest. ``

What makes you think military grade electronic parts are freely available in quantities ?

`` Pakistan and China have already jointly developed and tested JF-17. And Karokoram-8, which is now the main tranier of Pakistan. So the airplane is already there. Now, it just needs to be exported..........Whether they bought it, stole it, developed it, assembled it, etc. is immaterial.........It`s there, for everyone to see........ ``

Why does Pakistan have only 10-20 K-8 trainers if it is such a great aircraft ?
Hint - Maybe you want to find out who makes the engines and why they stopped selling it to China.

The JF-17 is a prototype aircraft with Italian radars, Israeli avionics and Russian engines. There is no assurances those countries are going to sit by so that China or Pakistan corner the weapons market.

`` It will have the same engine as the Mig-29. The same missile systems as the latest F-16s and Mirage-2000s (AIM 9L and Magic). The same avionics as the latest Western aircraft. It will have Fly By Wire and even BVRs. That is quite impressive. Once the airplane becomes a part of the Chinese and Pakistan Air Forces, I think the Middle East will be a good market to sell it to.......... ``

It does not have the same engine on the latest model MiG-29s. It definitely does not have the latest avionics of the F-16 or Mirage-2000.

Romair #48

`` Have you studied these subjects or are you shooting from hip? I am just curious, because many of your comments seem contradictory to the actual scenarios: ``

I am not a military expert.

`` F-16s have gotten all the customers it was going to get. It sold a lot. But I don`t know how much more it is going to sell. Its main buyer is the USAF. And the USAF will start moving onto newer F-22 etc. Not immediately. But over time. The biggest importer of arms in the world is India. And India isn`t buying it. Neither is China. ``

Keeping the production line open for a year does not win much. 24 F-16s for the PAF will fetch $800-900 million. If Pakistan orders 60-70 F-16s at $50 million a piece that might be a significant order.

`` This is why it needs more markets. 24 F-16s is a contract in the hundreds of millions of dollars. And the one to India would probably reach a billion dollars or so........That would definitely keep a few factories open. ``

There are supposedly 4000 workers at the Lockheed plant in Texas. Even at $60,000 per employee it works out to $240 million in wages and benefits. 24 F-16s priced at $50 million piece will keep the factory open for another year.

India has not purchased any combat aircraft in volumes without a co-production agreement.
It is hard to work out a co-production agreement with USA.

`` India and Pakistan are amongst the biggest purchasers of Mirage aircraft in the world. Pakistan of the older verions. India of the newer ones..........They are keeping the factories in France running......... ``

India ordered 40 out of the 70 Mirages in the 1980s. India has bought a few Mirage-2000s post Kargil to reinforce the existing fleet. India is about to purchase second hand Mirage-2000s from Qatar. Pakistan has been purchasing used Mirages from Australia, Libya etc. maybe French make money from spares and servicing.

``Pakistan spent more money propping the Taliban than it ever did supporting Lockheed.``
`` This is obviously incorrect. Do you have the figures? ``

Please provide the numbers for the Lockheed. I will provide you the numbers for the Taliban.

``India has 7 times more people, 4 times the area and an economy 10 times the size of Pakistan.``

`` India also has far more poor people than Pakistan. Which makes it even more important for India to not get into an arms race........... ``

% of poor in India is lesser than % poor in Pakistan. The Indian economy is creating jobs even though the job creation rate can be better.

`` This is a valid point. However, such incursions are a step in a series of incursions, which started from the initial Kashmir conflict in 47. And then led to India`s incursion of Siachen (which is still going on) and then to Pakistan`s incursion of Kargil. All incursions from both side, in Kashmir, shoud stop........Why concentrate only on the ones from Pakistan?

Having said that, all India needed to avoid Kargil was one soldier (monthly pay 5000 ruppees) stationed on the Kagil hilltop, with a $2000 radio receiver. That is it. He could have informed Indian HQ that something was going on. It does not need aircraft carriers and submarines and Mig-29s for that. It already had those, and they proved useless.......... ``

One soldier can cover only one peak. There were 200 peaks Pakistani troops occupied. Who would think Pakistani generals would start the Kargil incursion after the Lahore trip.

`` I am not sure this is correct. Could you provide the figures? Kargil is over. And done with. Pakistan could use the same logic on Siachen, which no one in India comments on for some reason. Even though it is still going on. It is the Indian equivalent of occupying disputed territory. Should Pakistan keep piling up weapons for that? ``

From the graph below Indian defense spending is the same in 1990 and 1999.
www.brad.ac.uk/acad/sassu/publications/ StrStab&ConvAsymmetry_Bradford_2.pdf

`` As I said, India has 1.1 million soldiers in its Army. Just one of them, stationed at a Kargil peak would have done the job..............You are confusing an intelligence failure with an offensive military failure.............``

The real strength of the Indian army is 980,000. The job of the army is not to guard every single inch. It is simply not possible even with modern surveillance technology.

CoolAL #57,
Cool down pal. You can convey your point without getting abusive.

...
Having said that, all India needed to avoid Kargil was one soldier (monthly pay 5000 ruppees) stationed on the Kagil hilltop, with a $2000 radio receiver. That is it. He could have informed Indian HQ that something was going on. It does not need aircraft carriers and submarines and Mig-29s for that. It already had those, and they proved useless..........



Listen to this SOB. I cannot believe that I am hearing this. So, I turn my back on you and you shove a knife in my back but it is my fault for turning my back on you....

No wonder this bugger was run out of the US. I bet he did not bat an eylid when he lied to the Canadians and took refuge in their country. It is just a matter of time before he will be run out of Canada too...

Correction to my previous post. I meant India and China are not going to war anytime soon.

afsand,
Dont worry India and China are going to go war against each other anytime soon. If India plays its card well then she will maintain good relations with USA and maintain a safe distance with China. All the talk about USA considering to use India as ally against China is media hype. USA and India will have good relations but will never become allies. Japan will continue to be USA`s main ally in the east.