F-16s to Pakistan—Why Now?

Romair,
Export military aircrafts to which country? All developed countries have excess production of their own and they are unlikely to buy Pakistani aircraft. Developing countries have reduced their purchase.

bbabu #29: I think the main reason may have been that General Dynamics (now Lockheed) would have had to close down one of its plants, if it was not able to sell more aircraft. So Pakistan got some and India was offered some.

Defence industries in the USA are a business. They make money through exports and sales. They enjoy a lot of influence in the USA govt.

The same happens with France. Pakistan is the largest user of old generation Mirage (III, IV) aircraft in the world, now. India is turning into (perhaps already is) the largest buyer of next generation of Mirage-2000 aircraft. The beneficiary of all of this is Dassault - the French company.

So two extremely poor countries, Pakistan and India, are making Lockheed and Dassault wealthy, by allowing them to sell to both. I consider India the main culprit in this arms race. It had a 3-1 advantage over Pakistan. Since then it has raised it to 5-1 for no reason. Pakistan cannot threaten India with a 3-1 disadvantage. However, it has to keep a certain deterence against India, since India is now the largest importer of armament in the world..........So Pakistan has to purchase more, as well

It is about time Indians got out of their future superpower train of thought and started encouraging their govts. in stopping this arms race........So that South Asia can start advancing......There are only going to be two superpowers in the future - USA and China. Everyone else is wasting their time and precious resources, if they are thinking of becoming one...........

Pakistan should target African and Arab countries for the sale of it`s light amunitions and Jf-17 aircraft.

Sell at relatively low prices initially to the Africans and then pick up the prices once their air forces begin to become dependant on it.

#34 by Romair on April 5, 2005 10:05am PT


It had a 3-1 advantage over Pakistan. Since then it has raised it to 5-1 for no reason.


The Indian economy is 10 times larger than the Pakistani economy...going by that baseline, Pakistan has twice what it should...

India spends less than 3% of it`s GDP on defense..Pakistan, OTOH, spends more than 5% on it`s military....

#27 by ntsyed on April 5, 2005 9:32am PT

I think both Indians and Pakistanis are foolish to get into the arms race when their people are experiencing continuous decline in their peanuts for income.


India spends less than 3% of it`s GDP on defense..Pakistan, OTOH, spends more than 5% on it`s military....the Indian economy is 10 times larger than the PAkistani economy...so who`s spending more than they can afford?

Romair #34

`` bbabu #29: I think the main reason may have been that General Dynamics (now Lockheed) would have had to close down one of its plants, if it was not able to sell more aircraft. So Pakistan got some and India was offered some.

Defence industries in the USA are a business. They make money through exports and sales. They enjoy a lot of influence in the USA govt. ``

F-16 will get a lot of customers - East Europe, Iraq, Taiwan. It is not like India and Pakistan are the sole customers. 24 F-16s from Pakistan will not keep the factory open for too long.

`` The same happens with France. Pakistan is the largest user of old generation Mirage (III, IV) aircraft in the world, now. India is turning into (perhaps already is) the largest buyer of next generation of Mirage-2000 aircraft. The beneficiary of all of this is Dassault - the French company. ``

India has fewer than 70 Mirage-2000. They are considering to place an order for 126 more Mirage-2000. They have not been placed.

`` So two extremely poor countries, Pakistan and India, are making Lockheed and Dassault wealthy, by allowing them to sell to both. I consider India the main culprit in this arms race. It had a 3-1 advantage over Pakistan. Since then it has raised it to 5-1 for no reason. Pakistan cannot threaten India with a 3-1 disadvantage. However, it has to keep a certain deterence against India, since India is now the largest importer of armament in the world..........So Pakistan has to purchase more, as well ``

Pakistan spent more money propping the Taliban than it ever did supporting Lockheed.

India has 7 times more people, 4 times the area and an economy 10 times the size of Pakistan.

If Pakistan cannot threaten India with a 3 to 1 disadvantage why start stupid incursions like Kargil etc ?

Indian military spending was steadily falling from 1990 to per-Kargil.

`` It is about time Indians got out of their future superpower train of thought and started encouraging their govts. in stopping this arms race........So that South Asia can start advancing......There are only going to be two superpowers in the future - USA and China. Everyone else is wasting their time and precious resources, if they are thinking of becoming one........... ``

Even the superpowers like USA and China have their limitations. The world will be multi-polar with Japan, China, India, USA, Europe playing important roles. Some of these countries are more important than others. There will be a lot of important medium sized regional powers - Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria. Pakistan`s problem is that it is surrounded by countries upon which it cannot impose its will (China, India, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia). Afghanistan is the only state it could have punched upon.

haroonellahi #35

`` Pakistan should target African and Arab countries for the sale of it`s light amunitions and Jf-17 aircraft.

Sell at relatively low prices initially to the Africans and then pick up the prices once their air forces begin to become dependant on it. ``

Pakistan cannot manufacture solid state electronic components, jet engines or any sophisticated components. I do not think Pakistan has an aluminium smelter. Do you even have any business producing sophisticated combat aircraft ? Try using your talent on something that produces $$$

Romair #30

`` Pakistan needs to start turning its defence industries into export industries. Having seen some of them from the inside, they are quite well-established, well-regarded and efficient. There is a well-established ordinance factor at Wah, which supplies equipment to one of the largest armies in the world. Interestingly, the Wah factory is run almost completely by civilians. There is well-established aircraft rebuild center at Kamra, which has a great track-record for flight safety. And is a major center for Mirage Aircraft rebuild (perhaps worldwide). And Pakistan is co-producing fighters with China. I think Paksitan also assembles submarines and stuff.

What they lack is marketing and sales. Perhaps a good way to go is to privatize the industry to some extent. Much of the Middle East forces have been trained by Pakistanis. They would probably be very interested in buying inexpensive equipment from a reliable source.........rather than relying on the USA for everything........ ``

You cannot produce automobile engines. How are you going to produce engines for tanks, jets etc.

You have zero semiconductor fabrication facilities. How do you produce electronic components for military weapons ?

Assembling and servicing old Mirages means diddly squat.

Before we get carried away and abuse each other with a lot of hot air over things which we neither have a say, nor control, let me remind you that while the Bush admin. has okayed the F-16 deal, it still has to pass muster in the US congress before Lockheed or whoever churns these birds out can actually start stuffing them into boxes for shipment.Same goes for the offer to transfer technology to the Indians.All this takes time and only time will tell.


The strength of the indian economy, the image of India as a producer nation of note, of technology, intellectual property, pharma and biocon technology, and arts and entertainment has captured the interest of the world.Indian designed and manufactured automobiles ply the roads of nations as far away as Uruguay and Mexico, The UK and europe, Africa and south asia.Mahindra Auto even has an assembly plant in Uruguay churning out Boleros and Scorpios for the south american market.Enough said.Pakistanis will never reconcile themselves to the idea of india as an economic superpower even if it hits them in the face.

Romair#30..... Much of the Middle East forces have been trained by Pakistanis....


Maybe that explains why the middle east armies are so pathetic and why the arabs lost land to a small nation such as Israel.And that explains the blind reliance on the US now, despite obvious distaste by local potentates, to shore up mainstream armies in the same area.Maybe, that`s why even islamic states in the Asia-Pacific region prefer to deal with India for their military hardware and supplies.Witness, India being accorded partnership status along with China by ASEAN.Pakistan just doesn`t matter.

Re: #31

CoolAl: ``Please understand, Kashmir will not be solved by force. It can only be solved by development of trust between India and Pakistan.``

I`m not trying to put you on the spot, but what happened when Musharraf tried that with his famous visit to India, or the unexpected handshake offer to Vajpaye during the SARC or some other summit?

I think that could`ve been a good start, because now we`re back to BS. Businessmen and politicians in all he countries involved are making money through sales and kickbacks, while the public in all these places continues to suffer.

At least the Indo-Pak Cricket seems to be getting back on track.

I don`t think these guys get it.

Folks, it is not about India. It is about Pakistan. Why should you care about what India does? The fundamental question to answer is this...

If we -- the Pakistanis -- mind our own business and stop the sponsorship of anti-India activities, will India be a threat to us?

I say NO. India has no wish to occupy land and add another 140 million hostile people to its population. As if we don`t have enough problems of our own right now.

#42

Musharaff tried to play cute and got his butt handed to him as he richly deserved. He would not even admit that you guys were sponsoring Jihadis to create mayham in Kashmir. Just how stupid do you think we are?

This is exactly what I am talking about. Don`t hold summitts with India. Just shut down and dismantle all the anti-India activities. We will know when that happens... trust me. Show us that you are sincere and you will see real progress. Continue with this shell game, you will only come to grief.

Think about this objectively, at every single step you guys have underesimated us. How many more times will you try the same tired tricks?

On second thought, based on what the excited Indian lot (sans vivek) has to say here, I think Pakistan should not worry about India`s acquisition of military hardware. The destroyed buildings can always be rebuild, which cost less much than military hardware; not that India dares to strike Pakistan first. The weaponry is only going to collect dust and rust anyway.

So what if their economy is so many times bigger than ours? The collective economies of the Coalition of the Willing is many many more times bigger than Iraq, yet they can`t get anything done right in that desert.

Let`s face it, the Indian brass is well aware an attack on Pakistan would only do what the US did in Afghanistan - destroy the earth and kill the people, and a never ending guerilla urban warfare.

If there was a ever a war, which I doubt there will be, and if Pakistan wins, then India will have lost much more than it`s soldiers and weaponry - it`s pride to be beaten by a smaller country.

On the other hand, if India wins, it will be a meaningless victory. She can`t take control of the land to add to its misery of Kashmir, Asam, etc, lest they all cause her to implode.

Either way, in the end Pakistan will have a lesser population problem and will be cutting into the Indian budget, either as retribution or investment to rebuild the country.

So, think with a cool head my friends. Weapons and wars are tools for the politicians, bureaucrats, and military brass to stuff their pockets and keep their jobs secure. These things never have and never will benefit the common poeple of any country. The American, Afghan, and Iraq examples are right before your eyes.

Peace

re #44:

CoolAl, have some CoolAid or something!

The infiltration is a two-way thing, as far as what I read in the Western journals specifically focusing on global military issues.

Even if Pakistan was the only party responsible for infilteration, Musharraf`s cuteness gave Vajpaye a tremendous opportunity to bring an end to the conflict, i.e. if that`s what he and RSS wished for. Being the senior statesman and a career politician he could have taken advantage of the ball when it was in his court. Apparently, he errored out by ``handing it back`` to miss the duce, as in truce.

He could have discussed Kashmir as Musharraf was nagging about and then get him to do what he wanted. But I guess poetry is his real forte instead of politics.

Chill, my friend. Just because our politicians can`t get along doesn`t mean we can`t have a decent discussion without losing temper either. You`re only raising your BP to unhealthy levels.

It`s ironic how hot headed we get about this topic when we`re in the US. Watch the people watching the Cricket series in both countries, or work together in the ME, one could never guess they could be so hostile to each other.

There must be something peculiar in the American air.

Re: #38 {``...If Pakistan cannot threaten India with a 3 to 1 disadvantage why start stupid incursions like Kargil etc ?

Indian military spending was steadily falling from 1990 to per-Kargil. ...``}

It all suddenly makes sense now. There is a deep under-cover RAW mole in the GHQ stretigic planning cell. Kargil was a plot hatched by the neo-cons of New Delhi and slipped in to the ideological cocktail drink of GHQ planners, just as smooth operators in the 70s used to slip a mickey -- typically Quayludes -- in the martini of freshmen co-eds at Greek fratinity parties. They get the desired results.

The only ones who profited from Kargil were the New Delhi militants who were previously fearful that, Vishnu-forbid, a sickening state of do-nothing called peace may break out any time and thus their cherished Pak-Bharat dushmenee agends would further weaken. They saw their diminishing military funding and looked for ways to get it boosted. A foreign threat would do just fine. Happily, the GHQ obliged. Hummmmm....

... Sughaan-allah... Lucifer works in such mysterious ways.

Attention all Pureland Patriots: that barking mad prophet, hamidm, is right about at least one thing: Never trust those Horrible Hinuds.

...SR

bbabu #various: Have you studied these subjects or are you shooting from hip? I am just curious, because many of your comments seem contradictory to the actual scenarios:

``F-16 will get a lot of customers - East Europe, Iraq, Taiwan. It is not like India and Pakistan are the sole customers. 24 F-16s from Pakistan will not keep the factory open for too long.``

F-16s have gotten all the customers it was going to get. It sold a lot. But I don`t know how much more it is going to sell. Its main buyer is the USAF. And the USAF will start moving onto newer F-22 etc. Not immediately. But over time. The biggest importer of arms in the world is India. And India isn`t buying it. Neither is China.

This is why it needs more markets. 24 F-16s is a contract in the hundreds of millions of dollars. And the one to India would probably reach a billion dollars or so........That would definitely keep a few factories open.

``India has fewer than 70 Mirage-2000. They are considering to place an order for 126 more Mirage-2000. They have not been placed.``

India and Pakistan are amongst the biggest purchasers of Mirage aircraft in the world. Pakistan of the older verions. India of the newer ones..........They are keeping the factories in France running.........

``Pakistan spent more money propping the Taliban than it ever did supporting Lockheed.``

This is obviously incorrect. Do you have the figures?

``India has 7 times more people, 4 times the area and an economy 10 times the size of Pakistan.``

India also has far more poor people than Pakistan. Which makes it even more important for India to not get into an arms race...........

``If Pakistan cannot threaten India with a 3 to 1 disadvantage why start stupid incursions like Kargil etc ?``

This is a valid point. However, such incursions are a step in a series of incursions, which started from the initial Kashmir conflict in 47. And then led to India`s incursion of Siachen (which is still going on) and then to Pakistan`s incursion of Kargil. All incursions from both side, in Kashmir, shoud stop........Why concentrate only on the ones from Pakistan?

Having said that, all India needed to avoid Kargil was one soldier (monthly pay 5000 ruppees) stationed on the Kagil hilltop, with a $2000 radio receiver. That is it. He could have informed Indian HQ that something was going on. It does not need aircraft carriers and submarines and Mig-29s for that. It already had those, and they proved useless..........

``Indian military spending was steadily falling from 1990 to per-Kargil.``

I am not sure this is correct. Could you provide the figures? Kargil is over. And done with. Pakistan could use the same logic on Siachen, which no one in India comments on for some reason. Even though it is still going on. It is the Indian equivalent of occupying disputed territory. Should Pakistan keep piling up weapons for that?

As I said, India has 1.1 million soldiers in its Army. Just one of them, stationed at a Kargil peak would have done the job..............You are confusing an intelligence failure with an offensive military failure.............