F-16s to Pakistan—Why Now?

Excellent article!

The F-16s will not help the security of Pakistan a whit, because the real threat to Pakistani security comes from internal reasons and not external sources.

Ciao

The worry for India from this sale would not be its effect on the strategic balance, but rather the possibility of another Pakistani misadventure.

Re: # 1
//..Manmohan Singh in 1995 , said the 21st century will be India`s century.Abdul Kalam in 1995 laid out the road map in his book ``India 2020``.These two gentlemen have ended up holding the reins of government at this time!!...//

yeah - don`t hold your breath for ``India`s century``. Leaders in india love to talk and they talk big. They have been talking big for last 60 years.

Manmohan Singh can`t even build a modern city in Mumbai. As soon as he started to do so - Italian widow cracked the whip and that`s end of his dream of modern Mumbai. And then he talks about ``India`s century``.

What a f***ing joke!!!

talk is cheap, for example, lets see:

- civilian reactors: is the US willing to convince other members of the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) that it will supply nuclear reactors without India signing NPT and agreeing to full scope safegaurds? That is a lot of leg-work and a lot of opposition from countries that signed NPT as the have-nots (Brazil, Sweden etc). Is that state dept willing to stick its neck out so far, that too for poor ole India?

- ``dual-use`` technology: NSSP has dragged on for years without any significant gains, are things going to change suddenly?

The battle is ON!

China promises more military aid to Pak

http://us.rediff.com/news/2005/apr/05china.htm

The sale of F16 is a non issue. It is shameful when Indian leaders squealed like rats. US is playing a bigger game. Pakis didn`t gain an advantage. Remember the Pattons.

The F16s are just like throwing a bone with little or no meat to their favorite pet.

Recently, China is showing its muscle. Indo/US millitary agreements will wage at least a psychological pressure on the Chinese.

Besides, the sales is generating revenue for the US.

Ghori
//....The hyphenated policy in regard to India and Pakistan demanded that Pakistan’s pot be sweetened before stocking the larder for India. ...//

Well - for once, it`s the pakis who are unhappy about the ``hyphenated policy`` :)

But come on. Don`t make mountain out of molehill. There is no conspiracy going on here...... It`s a simple case of service and payments. Mushy provided some arguably ``valuable`` services and he wanted some goodies in return. For some reason he is obsessed with F16s and he wants to have `em. So he got it. [ He could have asked for so many other things - more FDI, more industry from US to setup shop, more grants for schools etc. But then Mushy is Mushy ]

And as usual, impotent mofos sitting in Delhi started whining like little girls....what do you expect Uncle Sam do? What any other uncle would do - he offered F-18 to the whining fools in delhi. [60 years down the drain, numerous speeches on ``brain power`` and ``human capital`` India still can`t build a plane on its own. Heck, india can`t even build a modern city]

Anyhoo - that`s the end of the story. And for all you know - the whole deal may just fall thru - congress will pass a bill and that would end of Mushy`s F16 fantasy.

+++

So all this talk about ``Regional Superpower``, ``China-India rivalry``, ``neo-con agenda for India`` and what not is just pure BS. Just like the politicians in the subcontinent, the journos also love to talk and talk big. This just another example such compulsive desire to talk big and weave elaborated high-intrigue theories.

Pakistani acquistions on the Air Force side, historically, have been very good. Pakistan has been able to buy middle of the pack aircraft and has been able to upgrade them locally with top of the line avionics and missile systems. And it has the capabililty to rebuild them locally and efficiently. This combined with extremely high training standards is what has given the Air Force a large edge.

Pakistan should continue to follow the above-mentioned formula, which has proved so successful for it, since the early 70s. Before then, Pakistan was a complete US product shop. The USA used to sell Pakistan the latest equipment. Pakistan was flying T-37 trainers when the USAF started flying them. It was one of the largest recepients of F-86s. It had a Mach-2 fighter (F-104) before any European country got it. It had state of the art C-130 cargo aircraft.

Then the USA stopped delivering aircraft to Pakistan. And Pakistan had no indigneous set-up to get them either. This was the best thing that could have happened to Pakistan. It was forced to reorganize. It started acquiring French and Chinese equipment. This was inferior to the USA equipment. But it allowed much better logistics. And the poor Chinese equipment, forced Pakistan to indigenously update it with US/French missiles, British ejection seats and HUD(s) and US avionics. This resulted in aircraft that were far superior to their original prototype.

Then the Afghan war started and Pakistan started gettting US equipment, fully manufactured, again. This is where the F-16 came in. Pakistan now has a full set-up to fly and maintain F-16s. It will take a lot of logistical effort to switch that to another new generation aircraft. Most of all, it has some of the best trained pilots in the world on this aircraft.

This is the dilemma. Every Air Force needs at least, one next generation aircraft, like an F-16, F-18, Mig-28, Mirage-2000 etc. If for no other reason, then to ensure its own pilots are allowed to train against it, so that they gain some experience.

However, the USA has a tendency to make a country, either completely dependent on USA equipment, or cut off supplies, when needed most, through Pressler amendments.

I think Pakistan needs to make a clear break from the USA, on buying fully assembled aircraft, at some stage. It should push the JF-17 project with China, to the fullest (and even export it). And it should switch to French Mirages, for the next generation aircraft (though they are more expensive than F-16s).

Pakistan is, currently, the largest operator of previous generation Mirages (III, IV) in the world. It buys them used from countries, and rebuilds them. It co-produces Karakoram-8 trainers with China. And has the F-7 as its main defensive aircraft. This should be augmented with JF-17s (which are probably somewhere in between F-7 and F-16s).

Pakistan should only purchase avionics and missile systems from the USA..............Which is generally what it was doing, until this F-16 deal went through.

I think some (including the author) have rightly pointed out that the arms to India and Pakistan are not for use again each other, it is primarily to counter China to prevent her regional hegemony... if there`s any hope left for that.

India`s noteworthy ambition to become a superpower notwithstanding, she has a long way to go, even if US manages to get her on the UNSC.

Her claim of being world`s largest democracy has yet to be proven tangible vis a vis domestic alleviation of poverty, AIDS, etc.

It comes down to money. It`s the same formual as during the cold war... the played both sides of the board: they sold tanks to one party and RPGs to the other in order to make money from both sides.

The Republicans have a tremendous lobby behind them - NRA, and most of its financiers are linked to the American defense industry. The wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and soon to come elsewhere in the ME are links of that chain. There are plenty of statistics and articles available on the net about the American defense industry raking $$$ (Carlyle Group, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Halliburton, etc), while the rest of industries are struggling to rebound from the recession.

I think both Indians and Pakistanis are foolish to get into the arms race when their people are experiencing continuous decline in their peanuts for income. If the leaders of both countries had more sincerity towards their populace vis a vis the foreign power brokers, together they could be a formidable force to be reckoned with. The operative word here is ``sincerity``. Of course, neither China nor US nor Europe nor Russia could bear to let that happen.

As vivek`s eloquent qoute demonstrates

``Pakistan, in the words of a retired Paki general, is simply a condom that US uses and discards at will``

Now that Soviet-Afghan war is over and China is too coy to be exploited in the aforementioned manner, guess who is it the US uses this condom on before discarding it ;-)

ntsyed,
India`s ambition for superpower is overstated in the media. Most Indian people have their feet firmly on the ground and know that they have a very long way to go.

`` Conventional wisdom says it’s a ‘reward’ for General Musharraf’s loyalty to George W. Bush’s ‘cause’ in this part of the world. The question is why now? General Musharraf has been loyal and steadfast to Bush’s open-ended war in Afghanistan and elsewhere from day one. Logic suggests that he should have been rewarded for his commitment early in the stint in order to pre-empt those lampooning him for getting not much in return for his services. Why delay the ‘reward’ for so long? ``

Because Mushy insisted on it. Pakistan has been playing a double game on the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Hence the delay in the F-16s.

`` The simple answer is that Washington has tested General Musharraf long enough, found him unwavering in his commitment to the Bush agenda and, finally, decided that it was time to put a tangible reward like F-16s where their mouth has been for such a long time. ``

Possible

`` But the ‘reward’ theory loses all its thrust of argument when put against the other half of the Bush administration’s decision to give much more to India to balance its reward to Pakistan. India is not a front line soldier in Bush’s war on terrorism the way Pakistan has been for so long; why should Bush, then, be so munificent in promising not only advanced weaponry but sophisticated technology and state-of-the-art military industrial manufacturing know-how to India? ``

The bottom falls out of the reward barrel when what Pakistan is going to get is placed against what India is being offered in the realms of defence co-operation, defence-production and transfer of technology. You don’t reward a loyal and steadfast ally and, simultaneously, beef up, manifold, the defence potential of the adversary against whom Pakistan’s award-winning F-16s are most likely to be deployed? ``

Technology transfers to India are only a promise. The simple question to you if India cannot influence American policy completely with respect to Pakistan. What is the probability Pakistan can influence policy wrt India ?


`` There is, on top of it, the added comfort for India that U.S. is prepared to sell it a more sophisticated and versatile aircraft—F-18—than what is being offered to Islamabad. The icing on the cake for India is that it will be making these aircrafts under license and will not be dependent for spares on Washington. Islamabad, on the other hand, will not be able to evade the supplier-client dragnet that had sapped all the thunder out of its earlier-vintage F-16s. There are no guarantees that Islamabad will not have to scrounge for spares for the new-age F-16s, as it was made to for the old ones. ``

F-18 are more versatile than the F-16. They are more suited for defense requirements of India. They can be used on aircraft carriers, short air strips on Andaman islands etc. I take a F-16 over a F-18 anyday for air superiority missions.

Pakistan needs to start turning its defence industries into export industries. Having seen some of them from the inside, they are quite well-established, well-regarded and efficient. There is a well-established ordinance factor at Wah, which supplies equipment to one of the largest armies in the world. Interestingly, the Wah factory is run almost completely by civilians. There is well-established aircraft rebuild center at Kamra, which has a great track-record for flight safety. And is a major center for Mirage Aircraft rebuild (perhaps worldwide). And Pakistan is co-producing fighters with China. I think Paksitan also assembles submarines and stuff.

What they lack is marketing and sales. Perhaps a good way to go is to privatize the industry to some extent. Much of the Middle East forces have been trained by Pakistanis. They would probably be very interested in buying inexpensive equipment from a reliable source.........rather than relying on the USA for everything........

Seriously...

What will it take to convince Pakistan and Pakistanis that India has never been a threat to Pakistan? If you want peace, all you have to do is focus on your country`s development and quit sponsoring anti-India activities -- these are NOT in your country`s best interests.

Try this approach for a couple of decades -- that is less than half the time that you guys have spent trying to screw with India -- and then see how easily the Kashmir problem will resolve itself.

Please understand, Kashmir will not be solved by force. It can only be solved by development of trust between India and Pakistan. Threats, one upmanship and trash talking will not lead to development of trust but will just bring enormous amout of grief to Pakistan.

You guys seriously need a paradigm shift in your foreign policy.

babu,
About the F-18 part, nothing`s been promised to India. The media is just building a hype around it. I hope India does not stupidly buy American weaponary, and indirectly open the doors of Russian weaponary to Pakistan.

Romair,
Export military aircrafts to which country? All developed countries have excess production of their own and they are unlikely to buy Pakistani aircraft. Developing countries have reduced their purchase.

bbabu #29: I think the main reason may have been that General Dynamics (now Lockheed) would have had to close down one of its plants, if it was not able to sell more aircraft. So Pakistan got some and India was offered some.

Defence industries in the USA are a business. They make money through exports and sales. They enjoy a lot of influence in the USA govt.

The same happens with France. Pakistan is the largest user of old generation Mirage (III, IV) aircraft in the world, now. India is turning into (perhaps already is) the largest buyer of next generation of Mirage-2000 aircraft. The beneficiary of all of this is Dassault - the French company.

So two extremely poor countries, Pakistan and India, are making Lockheed and Dassault wealthy, by allowing them to sell to both. I consider India the main culprit in this arms race. It had a 3-1 advantage over Pakistan. Since then it has raised it to 5-1 for no reason. Pakistan cannot threaten India with a 3-1 disadvantage. However, it has to keep a certain deterence against India, since India is now the largest importer of armament in the world..........So Pakistan has to purchase more, as well

It is about time Indians got out of their future superpower train of thought and started encouraging their govts. in stopping this arms race........So that South Asia can start advancing......There are only going to be two superpowers in the future - USA and China. Everyone else is wasting their time and precious resources, if they are thinking of becoming one...........

Pakistan should target African and Arab countries for the sale of it`s light amunitions and Jf-17 aircraft.

Sell at relatively low prices initially to the Africans and then pick up the prices once their air forces begin to become dependant on it.

#34 by Romair on April 5, 2005 10:05am PT


It had a 3-1 advantage over Pakistan. Since then it has raised it to 5-1 for no reason.


The Indian economy is 10 times larger than the Pakistani economy...going by that baseline, Pakistan has twice what it should...

India spends less than 3% of it`s GDP on defense..Pakistan, OTOH, spends more than 5% on it`s military....

#27 by ntsyed on April 5, 2005 9:32am PT

I think both Indians and Pakistanis are foolish to get into the arms race when their people are experiencing continuous decline in their peanuts for income.


India spends less than 3% of it`s GDP on defense..Pakistan, OTOH, spends more than 5% on it`s military....the Indian economy is 10 times larger than the PAkistani economy...so who`s spending more than they can afford?

Romair #34

`` bbabu #29: I think the main reason may have been that General Dynamics (now Lockheed) would have had to close down one of its plants, if it was not able to sell more aircraft. So Pakistan got some and India was offered some.

Defence industries in the USA are a business. They make money through exports and sales. They enjoy a lot of influence in the USA govt. ``

F-16 will get a lot of customers - East Europe, Iraq, Taiwan. It is not like India and Pakistan are the sole customers. 24 F-16s from Pakistan will not keep the factory open for too long.

`` The same happens with France. Pakistan is the largest user of old generation Mirage (III, IV) aircraft in the world, now. India is turning into (perhaps already is) the largest buyer of next generation of Mirage-2000 aircraft. The beneficiary of all of this is Dassault - the French company. ``

India has fewer than 70 Mirage-2000. They are considering to place an order for 126 more Mirage-2000. They have not been placed.

`` So two extremely poor countries, Pakistan and India, are making Lockheed and Dassault wealthy, by allowing them to sell to both. I consider India the main culprit in this arms race. It had a 3-1 advantage over Pakistan. Since then it has raised it to 5-1 for no reason. Pakistan cannot threaten India with a 3-1 disadvantage. However, it has to keep a certain deterence against India, since India is now the largest importer of armament in the world..........So Pakistan has to purchase more, as well ``

Pakistan spent more money propping the Taliban than it ever did supporting Lockheed.

India has 7 times more people, 4 times the area and an economy 10 times the size of Pakistan.

If Pakistan cannot threaten India with a 3 to 1 disadvantage why start stupid incursions like Kargil etc ?

Indian military spending was steadily falling from 1990 to per-Kargil.

`` It is about time Indians got out of their future superpower train of thought and started encouraging their govts. in stopping this arms race........So that South Asia can start advancing......There are only going to be two superpowers in the future - USA and China. Everyone else is wasting their time and precious resources, if they are thinking of becoming one........... ``

Even the superpowers like USA and China have their limitations. The world will be multi-polar with Japan, China, India, USA, Europe playing important roles. Some of these countries are more important than others. There will be a lot of important medium sized regional powers - Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria. Pakistan`s problem is that it is surrounded by countries upon which it cannot impose its will (China, India, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia). Afghanistan is the only state it could have punched upon.

haroonellahi #35

`` Pakistan should target African and Arab countries for the sale of it`s light amunitions and Jf-17 aircraft.

Sell at relatively low prices initially to the Africans and then pick up the prices once their air forces begin to become dependant on it. ``

Pakistan cannot manufacture solid state electronic components, jet engines or any sophisticated components. I do not think Pakistan has an aluminium smelter. Do you even have any business producing sophisticated combat aircraft ? Try using your talent on something that produces $$$

Romair #30

`` Pakistan needs to start turning its defence industries into export industries. Having seen some of them from the inside, they are quite well-established, well-regarded and efficient. There is a well-established ordinance factor at Wah, which supplies equipment to one of the largest armies in the world. Interestingly, the Wah factory is run almost completely by civilians. There is well-established aircraft rebuild center at Kamra, which has a great track-record for flight safety. And is a major center for Mirage Aircraft rebuild (perhaps worldwide). And Pakistan is co-producing fighters with China. I think Paksitan also assembles submarines and stuff.

What they lack is marketing and sales. Perhaps a good way to go is to privatize the industry to some extent. Much of the Middle East forces have been trained by Pakistanis. They would probably be very interested in buying inexpensive equipment from a reliable source.........rather than relying on the USA for everything........ ``

You cannot produce automobile engines. How are you going to produce engines for tanks, jets etc.

You have zero semiconductor fabrication facilities. How do you produce electronic components for military weapons ?

Assembling and servicing old Mirages means diddly squat.

Before we get carried away and abuse each other with a lot of hot air over things which we neither have a say, nor control, let me remind you that while the Bush admin. has okayed the F-16 deal, it still has to pass muster in the US congress before Lockheed or whoever churns these birds out can actually start stuffing them into boxes for shipment.Same goes for the offer to transfer technology to the Indians.All this takes time and only time will tell.


The strength of the indian economy, the image of India as a producer nation of note, of technology, intellectual property, pharma and biocon technology, and arts and entertainment has captured the interest of the world.Indian designed and manufactured automobiles ply the roads of nations as far away as Uruguay and Mexico, The UK and europe, Africa and south asia.Mahindra Auto even has an assembly plant in Uruguay churning out Boleros and Scorpios for the south american market.Enough said.Pakistanis will never reconcile themselves to the idea of india as an economic superpower even if it hits them in the face.

Romair#30..... Much of the Middle East forces have been trained by Pakistanis....


Maybe that explains why the middle east armies are so pathetic and why the arabs lost land to a small nation such as Israel.And that explains the blind reliance on the US now, despite obvious distaste by local potentates, to shore up mainstream armies in the same area.Maybe, that`s why even islamic states in the Asia-Pacific region prefer to deal with India for their military hardware and supplies.Witness, India being accorded partnership status along with China by ASEAN.Pakistan just doesn`t matter.

Re: #31

CoolAl: ``Please understand, Kashmir will not be solved by force. It can only be solved by development of trust between India and Pakistan.``

I`m not trying to put you on the spot, but what happened when Musharraf tried that with his famous visit to India, or the unexpected handshake offer to Vajpaye during the SARC or some other summit?

I think that could`ve been a good start, because now we`re back to BS. Businessmen and politicians in all he countries involved are making money through sales and kickbacks, while the public in all these places continues to suffer.

At least the Indo-Pak Cricket seems to be getting back on track.

I don`t think these guys get it.

Folks, it is not about India. It is about Pakistan. Why should you care about what India does? The fundamental question to answer is this...

If we -- the Pakistanis -- mind our own business and stop the sponsorship of anti-India activities, will India be a threat to us?

I say NO. India has no wish to occupy land and add another 140 million hostile people to its population. As if we don`t have enough problems of our own right now.

#42

Musharaff tried to play cute and got his butt handed to him as he richly deserved. He would not even admit that you guys were sponsoring Jihadis to create mayham in Kashmir. Just how stupid do you think we are?

This is exactly what I am talking about. Don`t hold summitts with India. Just shut down and dismantle all the anti-India activities. We will know when that happens... trust me. Show us that you are sincere and you will see real progress. Continue with this shell game, you will only come to grief.

Think about this objectively, at every single step you guys have underesimated us. How many more times will you try the same tired tricks?

On second thought, based on what the excited Indian lot (sans vivek) has to say here, I think Pakistan should not worry about India`s acquisition of military hardware. The destroyed buildings can always be rebuild, which cost less much than military hardware; not that India dares to strike Pakistan first. The weaponry is only going to collect dust and rust anyway.

So what if their economy is so many times bigger than ours? The collective economies of the Coalition of the Willing is many many more times bigger than Iraq, yet they can`t get anything done right in that desert.

Let`s face it, the Indian brass is well aware an attack on Pakistan would only do what the US did in Afghanistan - destroy the earth and kill the people, and a never ending guerilla urban warfare.

If there was a ever a war, which I doubt there will be, and if Pakistan wins, then India will have lost much more than it`s soldiers and weaponry - it`s pride to be beaten by a smaller country.

On the other hand, if India wins, it will be a meaningless victory. She can`t take control of the land to add to its misery of Kashmir, Asam, etc, lest they all cause her to implode.

Either way, in the end Pakistan will have a lesser population problem and will be cutting into the Indian budget, either as retribution or investment to rebuild the country.

So, think with a cool head my friends. Weapons and wars are tools for the politicians, bureaucrats, and military brass to stuff their pockets and keep their jobs secure. These things never have and never will benefit the common poeple of any country. The American, Afghan, and Iraq examples are right before your eyes.

Peace

re #44:

CoolAl, have some CoolAid or something!

The infiltration is a two-way thing, as far as what I read in the Western journals specifically focusing on global military issues.

Even if Pakistan was the only party responsible for infilteration, Musharraf`s cuteness gave Vajpaye a tremendous opportunity to bring an end to the conflict, i.e. if that`s what he and RSS wished for. Being the senior statesman and a career politician he could have taken advantage of the ball when it was in his court. Apparently, he errored out by ``handing it back`` to miss the duce, as in truce.

He could have discussed Kashmir as Musharraf was nagging about and then get him to do what he wanted. But I guess poetry is his real forte instead of politics.

Chill, my friend. Just because our politicians can`t get along doesn`t mean we can`t have a decent discussion without losing temper either. You`re only raising your BP to unhealthy levels.

It`s ironic how hot headed we get about this topic when we`re in the US. Watch the people watching the Cricket series in both countries, or work together in the ME, one could never guess they could be so hostile to each other.

There must be something peculiar in the American air.

Re: #38 {``...If Pakistan cannot threaten India with a 3 to 1 disadvantage why start stupid incursions like Kargil etc ?

Indian military spending was steadily falling from 1990 to per-Kargil. ...``}

It all suddenly makes sense now. There is a deep under-cover RAW mole in the GHQ stretigic planning cell. Kargil was a plot hatched by the neo-cons of New Delhi and slipped in to the ideological cocktail drink of GHQ planners, just as smooth operators in the 70s used to slip a mickey -- typically Quayludes -- in the martini of freshmen co-eds at Greek fratinity parties. They get the desired results.

The only ones who profited from Kargil were the New Delhi militants who were previously fearful that, Vishnu-forbid, a sickening state of do-nothing called peace may break out any time and thus their cherished Pak-Bharat dushmenee agends would further weaken. They saw their diminishing military funding and looked for ways to get it boosted. A foreign threat would do just fine. Happily, the GHQ obliged. Hummmmm....

... Sughaan-allah... Lucifer works in such mysterious ways.

Attention all Pureland Patriots: that barking mad prophet, hamidm, is right about at least one thing: Never trust those Horrible Hinuds.

...SR

bbabu #various: Have you studied these subjects or are you shooting from hip? I am just curious, because many of your comments seem contradictory to the actual scenarios:

``F-16 will get a lot of customers - East Europe, Iraq, Taiwan. It is not like India and Pakistan are the sole customers. 24 F-16s from Pakistan will not keep the factory open for too long.``

F-16s have gotten all the customers it was going to get. It sold a lot. But I don`t know how much more it is going to sell. Its main buyer is the USAF. And the USAF will start moving onto newer F-22 etc. Not immediately. But over time. The biggest importer of arms in the world is India. And India isn`t buying it. Neither is China.

This is why it needs more markets. 24 F-16s is a contract in the hundreds of millions of dollars. And the one to India would probably reach a billion dollars or so........That would definitely keep a few factories open.

``India has fewer than 70 Mirage-2000. They are considering to place an order for 126 more Mirage-2000. They have not been placed.``

India and Pakistan are amongst the biggest purchasers of Mirage aircraft in the world. Pakistan of the older verions. India of the newer ones..........They are keeping the factories in France running.........

``Pakistan spent more money propping the Taliban than it ever did supporting Lockheed.``

This is obviously incorrect. Do you have the figures?

``India has 7 times more people, 4 times the area and an economy 10 times the size of Pakistan.``

India also has far more poor people than Pakistan. Which makes it even more important for India to not get into an arms race...........

``If Pakistan cannot threaten India with a 3 to 1 disadvantage why start stupid incursions like Kargil etc ?``

This is a valid point. However, such incursions are a step in a series of incursions, which started from the initial Kashmir conflict in 47. And then led to India`s incursion of Siachen (which is still going on) and then to Pakistan`s incursion of Kargil. All incursions from both side, in Kashmir, shoud stop........Why concentrate only on the ones from Pakistan?

Having said that, all India needed to avoid Kargil was one soldier (monthly pay 5000 ruppees) stationed on the Kagil hilltop, with a $2000 radio receiver. That is it. He could have informed Indian HQ that something was going on. It does not need aircraft carriers and submarines and Mig-29s for that. It already had those, and they proved useless..........

``Indian military spending was steadily falling from 1990 to per-Kargil.``

I am not sure this is correct. Could you provide the figures? Kargil is over. And done with. Pakistan could use the same logic on Siachen, which no one in India comments on for some reason. Even though it is still going on. It is the Indian equivalent of occupying disputed territory. Should Pakistan keep piling up weapons for that?

As I said, India has 1.1 million soldiers in its Army. Just one of them, stationed at a Kargil peak would have done the job..............You are confusing an intelligence failure with an offensive military failure.............

India is viewed as an aggressor who is gaining military strength to gain dominant strength in the region whereas as Pakistan is gaining military strength to protect itself against any pressure or future threat from India. Pakistan cannot match India’s military strength in numbers or arms but the aim of its defensive military policy is to strike a severe blow to the Indian military in order to protect itself. India’s military manpower is more than 1,100,000 and Pakistan’s military is 550,000 and India’s military expenditure in 2001 was US 15.9 bn and Pakistan’s expenditure for the same year was US 2.6 bn (BBC news). India has 1.1 million soldiers, Pakistan half that number. India has 738 combat aircraft, Pakistan 353. Indian tanks outnumber those of Pakistan by 3,400 to 2,300, and so on.
The struggle between India and Pakistan is creating a security dilemma, as each side increases its own security by arming its self, there is actually a decline in security on both sides. India is militarily superior than Pakistan in numbers as well as weapons. Pakistan and India in their ever increasing pursuit to increase their security have systematically created an ever more hostile situation in the past five decades.

bbabu #various: ``Pakistan cannot manufacture solid state electronic components, jet engines or any sophisticated components.``

You are correct. Pakistan cannot. Neither can India, for that matter. The engine in India`s LCA prototype is a GE F404 engine. And India is having difficulty replacing it. There are only a couple of countries that can produce aircraft engines. Even Russians had difficulties with turbine mettalurgy.

However, Pakistan does not need to produce its own engines. It can buy them from China. Which can design them under license from Russia. Or it can buy the same GE f404 from USA. This is what Pakistan does at the moment, with engines.....

``You cannot produce automobile engines. How are you going to produce engines for tanks, jets etc. ........You have zero semiconductor fabrication facilities. How do you produce electronic components for military weapons ?``

As stated above, engines are purchased. One does not need to assemble every part of a plane. Other than USA, France, UK and Russia, no one does that. Even France and UK now develops jointly with the rest of Europe on its Airbus and Eurofighter etc.

Pakistan does develop some electronic components. But electronics is a worldwide industry. There are plenty of parts available. One builds some and buys the rest.

Pakistan and China have already jointly developed and tested JF-17. And Karokoram-8, which is now the main tranier of Pakistan. So the airplane is already there. Now, it just needs to be exported..........Whether they bought it, stole it, developed it, assembled it, etc. is immaterial.........It`s there, for everyone to see........

It will have the same engine as the Mig-29. The same missile systems as the latest F-16s and Mirage-2000s (AIM 9L and Magic). The same avionics as the latest Western aircraft. It will have Fly By Wire and even BVRs. That is quite impressive. Once the airplane becomes a part of the Chinese and Pakistan Air Forces, I think the Middle East will be a good market to sell it to..........

#43 by CoolAL
//...I don`t think these guys get it. ...//

No - they don`t :)) They never will.

Romair,
Even if you make aircraft with Chinese engines (whose quality is very doubtfull), who are you going to sell it to. Developed countries make their own weapons, and they put tremendous pressure on developing countries to buy their weaponary. Hence no developing country is going to buy another developing country`s aircraft. China would be the only market, but if China was to buy it then why manufacture in Pakistan.

Re: # 47 SR
//...Never trust those Horrible Hinuds. ...//

Yep - you got that right. Never trust hinuds. They are evil - they will eat you alive [ No - they are not vegetarians - that`s just a ploy to fool you].

Amreicans need a ``murgha`` to fight (contain) the chinese menace. They need local help. Taiwan is one in the region and I guess India is next. Others may be able to help but they are not in the right position. India is in the right position to be the one. Inida has not dealt with American before, this is their first time. Intimacy with the giant eventually leads to a very sour relationship. Indians should learn from Pakistan.

Indian leadership will be wiser if they just stick with the Russian supplied weapon systems which is much more reliable then USA.

Being self sufficent is the key in the modern day warfare. Both India and Pakland are far from it. Fighting wars with borrowed technology and weak economy will simply break both countires in case of an all out war.

Just think who will be the ultimate winner in case of a Pakistan India war. Pakistan will be weakened and being a close ally of China, Chinese will be forced to put more economic aid to bring Pakistan back to its economic stability thus chinece progress will slow down.

In case of an all out war between India and China, chinese will be further weakened. Great for Americans. India will be weakened and thus Americans can sell more equipment to India. What can be better than this.

If indians are wise they should keep a distance with Americans. F-16 figherts to Pakistan is to intimidate indians to buy american fighter planes. This is an attempt to break india from the russian grip and bring them to their own market grip. If indians once decided to buy american fighter planes then they will be doing two thing at a time. The first is to have dependence on American supplied parts and second to make Russia unhappy. Both goes in Americans favor. Jointly producing F-16 or F18 under license does not mean that indians will start making the complete f-16 or 18 without American dependance.

In a nut shell, supplying F-16 to Pakistan is blackmailing india and put pressure on india to buy american made fighter jets. This is an attempt to capture market from russian hands. Indians should remenber that now they are dealing with a business minded nation and there is no free lunch.

Asfand Siddiqui
Sacramento CA

afsand,
Dont worry India and China are going to go war against each other anytime soon. If India plays its card well then she will maintain good relations with USA and maintain a safe distance with China. All the talk about USA considering to use India as ally against China is media hype. USA and India will have good relations but will never become allies. Japan will continue to be USA`s main ally in the east.

Correction to my previous post. I meant India and China are not going to war anytime soon.

...
Having said that, all India needed to avoid Kargil was one soldier (monthly pay 5000 ruppees) stationed on the Kagil hilltop, with a $2000 radio receiver. That is it. He could have informed Indian HQ that something was going on. It does not need aircraft carriers and submarines and Mig-29s for that. It already had those, and they proved useless..........



Listen to this SOB. I cannot believe that I am hearing this. So, I turn my back on you and you shove a knife in my back but it is my fault for turning my back on you....

No wonder this bugger was run out of the US. I bet he did not bat an eylid when he lied to the Canadians and took refuge in their country. It is just a matter of time before he will be run out of Canada too...

CoolAL #57,
Cool down pal. You can convey your point without getting abusive.

Romair #48

`` Have you studied these subjects or are you shooting from hip? I am just curious, because many of your comments seem contradictory to the actual scenarios: ``

I am not a military expert.

`` F-16s have gotten all the customers it was going to get. It sold a lot. But I don`t know how much more it is going to sell. Its main buyer is the USAF. And the USAF will start moving onto newer F-22 etc. Not immediately. But over time. The biggest importer of arms in the world is India. And India isn`t buying it. Neither is China. ``

Keeping the production line open for a year does not win much. 24 F-16s for the PAF will fetch $800-900 million. If Pakistan orders 60-70 F-16s at $50 million a piece that might be a significant order.

`` This is why it needs more markets. 24 F-16s is a contract in the hundreds of millions of dollars. And the one to India would probably reach a billion dollars or so........That would definitely keep a few factories open. ``

There are supposedly 4000 workers at the Lockheed plant in Texas. Even at $60,000 per employee it works out to $240 million in wages and benefits. 24 F-16s priced at $50 million piece will keep the factory open for another year.

India has not purchased any combat aircraft in volumes without a co-production agreement.
It is hard to work out a co-production agreement with USA.

`` India and Pakistan are amongst the biggest purchasers of Mirage aircraft in the world. Pakistan of the older verions. India of the newer ones..........They are keeping the factories in France running......... ``

India ordered 40 out of the 70 Mirages in the 1980s. India has bought a few Mirage-2000s post Kargil to reinforce the existing fleet. India is about to purchase second hand Mirage-2000s from Qatar. Pakistan has been purchasing used Mirages from Australia, Libya etc. maybe French make money from spares and servicing.

``Pakistan spent more money propping the Taliban than it ever did supporting Lockheed.``
`` This is obviously incorrect. Do you have the figures? ``

Please provide the numbers for the Lockheed. I will provide you the numbers for the Taliban.

``India has 7 times more people, 4 times the area and an economy 10 times the size of Pakistan.``

`` India also has far more poor people than Pakistan. Which makes it even more important for India to not get into an arms race........... ``

% of poor in India is lesser than % poor in Pakistan. The Indian economy is creating jobs even though the job creation rate can be better.

`` This is a valid point. However, such incursions are a step in a series of incursions, which started from the initial Kashmir conflict in 47. And then led to India`s incursion of Siachen (which is still going on) and then to Pakistan`s incursion of Kargil. All incursions from both side, in Kashmir, shoud stop........Why concentrate only on the ones from Pakistan?

Having said that, all India needed to avoid Kargil was one soldier (monthly pay 5000 ruppees) stationed on the Kagil hilltop, with a $2000 radio receiver. That is it. He could have informed Indian HQ that something was going on. It does not need aircraft carriers and submarines and Mig-29s for that. It already had those, and they proved useless.......... ``

One soldier can cover only one peak. There were 200 peaks Pakistani troops occupied. Who would think Pakistani generals would start the Kargil incursion after the Lahore trip.

`` I am not sure this is correct. Could you provide the figures? Kargil is over. And done with. Pakistan could use the same logic on Siachen, which no one in India comments on for some reason. Even though it is still going on. It is the Indian equivalent of occupying disputed territory. Should Pakistan keep piling up weapons for that? ``

From the graph below Indian defense spending is the same in 1990 and 1999.
www.brad.ac.uk/acad/sassu/publications/ StrStab&ConvAsymmetry_Bradford_2.pdf

`` As I said, India has 1.1 million soldiers in its Army. Just one of them, stationed at a Kargil peak would have done the job..............You are confusing an intelligence failure with an offensive military failure.............``

The real strength of the Indian army is 980,000. The job of the army is not to guard every single inch. It is simply not possible even with modern surveillance technology.

Romair #50

``Pakistan cannot manufacture solid state electronic components, jet engines or any sophisticated components.``

`` You are correct. Pakistan cannot. Neither can India, for that matter. The engine in India`s LCA prototype is a GE F404 engine. And India is having difficulty replacing it. There are only a couple of countries that can produce aircraft engines. Even Russians had difficulties with turbine mettalurgy. ``

Thanks for providing information I already knew.

`` However, Pakistan does not need to produce its own engines. It can buy them from China. Which can design them under license from Russia. Or it can buy the same GE f404 from USA. This is what Pakistan does at the moment, with engines.....``

China is importing jet engines from Russia. I am sure India buys enough weapons from Russia to prevent Chinese resales to Pakistan.


`` As stated above, engines are purchased. One does not need to assemble every part of a plane. Other than USA, France, UK and Russia, no one does that. Even France and UK now develops jointly with the rest of Europe on its Airbus and Eurofighter etc.``

You need to produce critical components. Otherwise you have no freedom to export weapon systems.

`` Pakistan does develop some electronic components. But electronics is a worldwide industry. There are plenty of parts available. One builds some and buys the rest. ``

What makes you think military grade electronic parts are freely available in quantities ?

`` Pakistan and China have already jointly developed and tested JF-17. And Karokoram-8, which is now the main tranier of Pakistan. So the airplane is already there. Now, it just needs to be exported..........Whether they bought it, stole it, developed it, assembled it, etc. is immaterial.........It`s there, for everyone to see........ ``

Why does Pakistan have only 10-20 K-8 trainers if it is such a great aircraft ?
Hint - Maybe you want to find out who makes the engines and why they stopped selling it to China.

The JF-17 is a prototype aircraft with Italian radars, Israeli avionics and Russian engines. There is no assurances those countries are going to sit by so that China or Pakistan corner the weapons market.

`` It will have the same engine as the Mig-29. The same missile systems as the latest F-16s and Mirage-2000s (AIM 9L and Magic). The same avionics as the latest Western aircraft. It will have Fly By Wire and even BVRs. That is quite impressive. Once the airplane becomes a part of the Chinese and Pakistan Air Forces, I think the Middle East will be a good market to sell it to.......... ``

It does not have the same engine on the latest model MiG-29s. It definitely does not have the latest avionics of the F-16 or Mirage-2000.

Re: # 60

Here is a small analyses on the economics behind these offers:

F-16 sale: The economics behind it


Sunday, 27 March , 2005, 08:39

Washington: The Bush administration`s decision to sell the F-16 jet planes to Pakistan has as much to do with economic reasons as it perhaps pertained to politics, security and American strategic calculations in South Asia and the Asia Pacific.



The Bethesda-based Lockheed that makes the multi role combat plane had made no bones of the fact that it was looking for more orders if its plant in Fort Worth, which employs about 5,000 workers, is not to suffer further shutdowns. The Dallas, Texas plant had an estimated 5,800 workers in January 2004 but this January this was down to 5,000 and by next January was scheduled to be down to 4,000 according to Tom Jurkowsky, Spokesman of Lockheed Martin as quoted in The Washington Post.

In announcing the decision to sell F-16s to Pakistan and in the process reversing a 15-year ban on the sale the Bush administration also made it known that it had no specific number of units that would be delivered to Pakistan. One figure had that number to 24 but administration officials made it known that there was no limit. Further it was clarified that what was heading the way of Pakistan were not those old versions sitting on a tarmac in Tuscon, Arizona that were originally intended for delivery some years ago.

What is being pointed out is that the Fort Worth plant delivered its last of its F-16s to the US Air Force last month but that the plant is still building planes for Israel, Chile, the UAE and Poland. According to The Post, Lockheed has back orders for about 200 fighters with the last one coming off the production line in 2008.

Lockheed has thus far supplied the F-16s to some 24 countries with a price tag of between $30 million and $40 million per copy. This, of course, it is being pointed out, will vary depending upon the kind of upgrades that are requested and allowed. At times the spares and other support equipment could add up to 150 per cent more of the original price tag.

In the context of the F-16 sales to Pakistan, it is pointed out that Lockheed has a bigger issue or opportunity on its hands - the ability to bid and be able to supply another 100 or more of the F-16 jets if India opted to go in this direction. And the Bush administration has also made the point that the F-16 is not the last word on the subject when it came to sophisticated multi role fighter jets. And other companies in the jet fighters business like Boeing will stand to benefit.

``That`s not just F-16s. It could be F-18s,`` remarked a senior administration official stressing that while it was up to India to decide from which country it wanted the jets, Washington has decided that the US will compete and is allowed to compete for that sale.

Industry News
Lockheed hands out layoff notices to F-16 workers




Thursday, January 20, 2005 - About 220 workers on the F-16 production line were handed layoff notices Wednesday by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co. in Fort Worth as the defense contractor begins cuts in its F-16 Fighting Falcon program.

The layoffs, the first round of many, follow three years of job growth in the F-16 program. The company has about 15,500 employees - about 6,000 of which were working on the F-16s last year.

It is the first wave of 800 to 1,000 layoffs of F-16 workers planned this year.

All of the employees affected are aircraft assemblers, mechanics, painters and other production workers. Some may still be reassigned to other duties and all others will get outplacement services.

Lockheed gave out 60-day warning notices to the assembly line workers, who will leave the company in March.

The Fort Worth-based company is moving out of the F-16 fighter jet`s development and initial production phases and not as many workers are needed.

Lockheed Martin has a backlog of about 200 planes but they did not book any new orders for F-16 fighter jets in 2004.

Without new orders, production of the F-16 would end in late 2008.

THIS SEEMS TO BE IN THE CONTINUATION OF U.S.A.`s POLICIES TOWARDS COMPETITION. WHEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN BECAME INDEPENDENT, THE ENEMY WAS COMMUNISM. THE USA, THEN TRIED TO WOO BOTH INDIA AND PAKISTAN AND EVEN OFFERED INDIA A CHANCE FOR A P.S. IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL.
NEHRU, HOWEVER, SOCIALIST AS HE WAS, IGNORED THESE OVERTURES, AND TRIED TO DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM THE USA, BY ALIGNING WITH THE U.S.S.R., WITHOUT ADOPTING COMMUNISM. NEHRU ALSO RAISED THE SLOGAN OF `HINDI-CHINI BHAI BHAI` BUT DUE TO FAILED FOREIGN POLICIES:- THE INDO-CHINA WAR.
THE U.S.A., IN THE MEANWHILE, SUCCEDED IN ITS FREINDSHIP WITH PAKISTAN AND FOUND IT USEFUL. HOWEVER, NOW WITH CHINA BEING A MAJOR COMPETITION, THE U.S.A. FINDS INDIA, MORE THAN PAKISTAN, READY TO BALANCE THE POWER RATIO IN ASIA. IF IT HAD NOT BEEN FOR PAKISTAN`S GOOD RELATIONS WITH CHINA, AND ITS ECONOMIC CONDITION, PAKISTAN WOULD HAVE BEEN BETER SUITED FOR THIS ROLE.
THE U.S.A. IS GOOD AT PICKING UP TOYS FOR ITS PLAY. BOTH COUNTRIES, INDIA AND PAKISTAN, MUST WATCH THEIR STEPS.

Re: # 63
You have put things in right perspective.USA is an imperialist country.It is not worried about India or Pakistan`s welfare....sooner both these countries realize,better it will be.

Its like killing two birds with one shot....selling its products and also keeping the tension alive between India and Pakistan and look at the timing...when both countries are trying to ease out the tension and hoping to improve relations!!

Re: #48,

Romair, my man!

I`ve heard so much about you... you`re definitely worth all the praises coming your way!

M`as-salaam

Re: #49

Well put, sajal!

Peace

Re: # 54

Asfand...baby... my MAN... CHILL dude!

You`re gonna chase `em away with your blistering insights.

Let them play with fire if they don`t believe it can hurt them... they`ll know soon.

M`as-salaam!

yaar, the idea behind the Pakistani Jf-17 is to provide us with a jet to replace the ageing jets in our fleet. The current f-16 batch and the new one will be the sophisticated core of the air force and the JF-17 will be the `unsophisticated` core of the air force. It will replacce our aging migs, f-7`s, etc.

Re: Romair & bbabu variour
Gentelmen!
Please don’t quarrel about the insignificant. We have to work hard to enrich the white man :)

Regards,

Faruk

The basic premise of this article is non-sensical although Mr. Ghauri has always been a no-non-sense guy.

The basic premise that America is propping up India as a superpower to counter China is non-Sense. China CANNOT be countered through a military threat of any size; because the nature of threat is not militaristic in nature but it is economic. Why would America help create a competitor that shows no inhibitions about becoming great. But the times have changed. The colonial era, when economics were controlled through military power has passed a century ago. Americans are learning this lesson the hard way in Afghnistan and Iraq.

The issue of supplying weapons to India is not as big as you have made it out to be. In my opinion there are two reasons for that:

1. Europeans have started re-selling weapons to China despite a US imposed sanction. They have told Americans to shove their sanctions where sun doesn`t rise. That leaves no option for Americans to sell its weapons elsewhere like India and Pakistan (potentially hot markets) or risk its manufacturers going out of business.

2. I think the Americans are trying their best from keeping India from buying oil from Iran (thru pipeline or even thru the sea), where Iran has promised to supply oil to only those who would buy it with Euros instead of US dollars. Iranians would supply oil cheaper than market rate and along with Iran, Russia and South America, especially Venzuella are opting for this option. That would sink the American economy to the abyss with in 5 years. The common sense, however, tells hindu baniya that even if he is given American technology and manufacturing liscences he would still need oil to support its economy. Irony of this whole situation is that, the Hindu baniya has become the Shylock who wants his pound of flesh too.


Trust me, I am no fan of India and I don`t see any potential of India becoming any kind of power in next 50 years at least. The most they will do will be to start manufacturing toys and dollar-store stuff while chinese will move into more sophisticated manufacturing arena.

drlokraj #64,
The USA is concerned about its place in the world just like any other country should. The status of other countries does not worry the USA unless it affects the USA`s position in the world. That`s how diplomacy of every country should be. India`s diplomacy is thankfully now moving in that direction. Only our development and our place in the world should matter to the Indian govt. Diplomacy is not about charity to other countries but about progress of only your own country.

One need not be particularly bright to see what is going on: China has an economic shadow that that firmly encompasses the far east and australia and is also becomng significant as far away as latin america. It seeks to extend its military presence pari passu by building up a navy to challenge the US in the pacific.

India seeks something similar, although at a smaller scale, in the Indian Ocean. Pakistan seeks to counter this by building up its own naval strength.

Seen in this light, the recent Sino-Pak agreements (reported in yesterday`s and today`s Dawn) fit into this like a piece of jigsaw: China has helped build the new port at Gwadar, and just signed the agreement to further enhance it, and also to strengthen pakistan`s navy by providing four new frigates among other things - and in return (as the US suspects, per some reports) will probably get rights for chinese subs. Pakistan is happy because it has (once again) countered Indian attempts at extending its military reach. China is happy because it has both a potential commercial outlet for its goods as well as military presence at the world`s oil lifeline. Pakistan is also happy because it can play off China with the US (which gives it F-16s and naval planes). Pakistan is even more happy because India does not like all this at all.

Meanwhile, poor abdul and his wife worry about the next meal and medicine for their sick kid. While the Big Boys play their Big Games of Statecraft. And with all due respect they are clueless where all this is leading to - since the day of the Nation-States is over anyway, as the planet shrinks to a global village.

(OK, thru ranting).

The timing of F-16 sale has more to do with Bush`s resounding win in 2004 elections, than anything else. The Democrats, who are more pro-India than Republicans, are too demoralised now to effectively challenge Bush`s decision in Congress and Senate.

According to some of my friends in the PAL-C (a Pakistani lobby in Washington D.C.), President Bush had already agreed to the F-16s sale during the last Musharraf visit to Camp David. If Bush had announced that decision back then, he would have faced tremendous flak from the vociferous Democrats. The Democrats were already accusing Bush of supporting dictatorships in middle East, Pakistan and Egypt.

The F-16 is primarily a political stunt aimed at convincing the Pakistani public that America is a sincere friend of Pakistan. In the short run, it will bolster the PAF considerably but in the longer run, PAF is going to benefit most from the JF-17.

It is time for India and Pakistan to look beyond CBMs and even beyond Kashmir. They should think strategically of a future in which the hostility between the two is not exploited by others. That the US move to sell F-16s to Pakistan and much more to India is designed to help its ailing aircraft manufacturers is a no-brainer. Why these two countries would so eagerly fall into this trap, where an outsider is taking advantage of their mutual hostility to line its own pockets is the real question? And it`s not just the US, China too is a willing player to exploit the hostility between the two. At least India has been smart vis-a-vis China and is not letting the Americans dictate its relationship with that country. Even Iran at times is able to exploit the differences between the two estranged siblings whenever it suits its purpose. Its time for Indian and Pakistani strategic thinkgers to devise a strategic alliance of its own, so that they can become players rather than mere mohras in the international game of chess.

Urstruly#70:
``The most they will do will be to start manufacturing toys and dollar-store stuff while chinese will move into more sophisticated manufacturing arena.``

Your contempt for the hindu is making you overlook some obvious facts. The reality is quite the opposite. India has been much more able to develop a niche in the knowledge-based industries than China.

Re: # 66

thankyou

Re: # 48

well put Romair