Fighting Poverty in Pakistan
Kamal Siddiqi April 13, 2005
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#2 Posted by temporal on April 13, 2005 11:31:27 am
Kamal:
thanks for writing on a very important issue
The government now plans to open 270,000 literacy centers in the country by 2005 to reverse the dubious distinction the country enjoys with regards to its literacy numbers.
can you provide a link?
also, would you happen to know if that is a yearly total? any target numbers for subsequent years?
rgds
t
thanks for writing on a very important issue
The government now plans to open 270,000 literacy centers in the country by 2005 to reverse the dubious distinction the country enjoys with regards to its literacy numbers.
can you provide a link?
also, would you happen to know if that is a yearly total? any target numbers for subsequent years?
rgds
t
#3 Posted by arjun_m on April 13, 2005 11:34:22 am
Mr Aziz holds the view that a higher growth rate will, in itself, take care of poverty.
He`s right about that...equality only works in the downward direction...you can make people equally poor...can`t make them equally rich...you can, however, provide equality of opportunity.
Commie style propaganda never lifted anyone out of poverty(other than the people spouting the propaganda)...
also, self-delusion doesn`t help....note that this was written by a prescient paki before the KSE was exposed for the joke that it is...self-delusion might work in the paki echo chamber of self-delusion, but the real world is a bit smarter...
The bull, the boom and fears of a bust
The rise of the KSE 100 Index has two aspects to it. First is the manner in which it is composed, and, second is the expectation of how major players in this composition are expected to perform in the future. Scores of related issues will play an important role on how this will unfold, but for the time being suffice it to say that we are stuck on the best-scenario assumption.
Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz tried his best to calm his audience in a meeting of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry in Karachi last week by asserting that ``business costs are still low in Pakistan compared to our neighbours``. Amazing, but then he conceded to his `shocked audience` that he did not include India in this comparison. Imagine. So much for honesty!
The composition of the KSE 100 Index is skewed enough to make it jump in hundreds once a major shift in share buying takes place in the top five scripts, they being the ones up for grabs in the privatisation process, which it seems will be finalised before September 2005.
#4 Posted by paindupastry on April 13, 2005 11:57:14 am
thanks for all the facts and figures...
i wonder if the wizards in the govt will ever learn or make the effort to do soemthing!
i wonder if the wizards in the govt will ever learn or make the effort to do soemthing!
#5 Posted by cayenne on April 13, 2005 12:21:13 pm
It must be extremely hard for those folks who enter public service.Sometimes i wonder if all the power and wealth, we presume they accrue , is really all that or worth it.If a small nation such as pakistan with a population relative to its` size is finding it hard to break even, i wonder how large nations manage their current accounts and balance the books.We must show more patience and give our leaders the benefit of the doubt before disparaging everything they do.However, pakistan , i must say, always has a knack of placing the wrong leader at the wrong time at the wrong place.I don`t know how they do it every time with precision.They get rid of a bear-like creature that can identify with the masses, win over neighbors with his simple unbecoming style, and appoint a hotshot, pompous investment banker who never lived in his country for over 35 years, unfamiliar with the ground realities.This is just my humble observation.And, i share it.
#6 Posted by Urstruly on April 13, 2005 12:54:31 pm
Generally, speaking under this dictator`s regime the inflation rate has shot up to 11% from historical 6.5%, which has been being maintained since Pakistan came into being. Only under the watch of this imported PM, the inflation rate jumped 3 percentage points, that is just with in a year. And then these bay sharam people have guts to talk about growth rates. Could someone please explain to me when growth rate is 6% (GOP propaganda figures; actual rate is close to 2.5%) and the inflation is 11%, how in the world can poverty be eliminated. This is a cruel joke. The tragedy of these lies express themselves in the suicide rate of 1 person every two hours, which this dictator says, has no relationship with rising heart wrenching poverty and joblessness.
#7 Posted by arjun_m on April 13, 2005 4:00:17 pm
so what`s the core issue now?
Poverty still grinds huge population: WB, IMF By Imran Ayub
KARACHI: The World Bank and International Monetary Fund have marked Pakistan as among only two Asian countries where poverty has stagnated at around one third of the population for the last decade.
The latest report released jointly by the two institutions said the Asian region has developed enough to reduce poverty rate by each of its country but Pakistan has yet to witness such windfall.
“Since 1990, the region has experienced rapid GDP growth, averaging close to 5.5 percent a year,” said says a report released on April 12 in Washington.
“This has helped to reduce the consumption poverty rate. Two notable exceptions are Pakistan, where poverty has stagnated at around one third of the population, and Afghanistan, which is emerging from decades of conflict.”
The international report came amid claims of the authorities, which said they had taken effective measures in the recent years to reduce rising poverty.
The State Bank of Pakistan in its half yearly report for 2004-05 issued a few weeks back said the economy added 2.9 million new jobs during 2003-2004, which cut the unemployment rate to 7.7 percent from previous 8.8 percent.
But, the WB and IMF both alarmed that bold and urgent action was needed to reduce extreme poverty and improve people’s economic and social prospects in developing countries in keeping with a set of key development targets, called the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The international institutions warned Pakistan and Afghanistan to come up with strong measures to fight the poverty, which threatened overall economic growth of the country.
“Against this backdrop, the universal primary education, gender equality, child mortality and major disease MDGs would appear within reach of most of the countries in the region, with only Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the poorer states in India remaining off track unless progress quickens substantially,” it added.
It said among eight Asian states India, the largest country in the region with a population of more than one billion had reduced the poverty rate by 7 to 10 percentage points since 1990. Most other countries in the region registered a similarly significant reduction in poverty over the period.
The report suggested that the eight countries of South Asia were home to nearly 40 percent of the world’s poor living on less than a dollar a day, with income per capita in the order of $460. However, the bank pinpointed three places in the South Asia region, standing out with good MDG indicators of their income levels. “Sri Lanka and the Indian state of Kerala have an established pattern of good performance that reflects the priority successive post-independence governments have given to investments in human development,” said the report.
“Bangladesh’s success has owed much to an effective scaling up of basic services built in large part on a combination of effective partnerships between the public sector and NGOs and the resulting high degree of community involvement, local innovation and experimentation.”
Poverty still grinds huge population: WB, IMF By Imran Ayub
KARACHI: The World Bank and International Monetary Fund have marked Pakistan as among only two Asian countries where poverty has stagnated at around one third of the population for the last decade.
The latest report released jointly by the two institutions said the Asian region has developed enough to reduce poverty rate by each of its country but Pakistan has yet to witness such windfall.
“Since 1990, the region has experienced rapid GDP growth, averaging close to 5.5 percent a year,” said says a report released on April 12 in Washington.
“This has helped to reduce the consumption poverty rate. Two notable exceptions are Pakistan, where poverty has stagnated at around one third of the population, and Afghanistan, which is emerging from decades of conflict.”
The international report came amid claims of the authorities, which said they had taken effective measures in the recent years to reduce rising poverty.
The State Bank of Pakistan in its half yearly report for 2004-05 issued a few weeks back said the economy added 2.9 million new jobs during 2003-2004, which cut the unemployment rate to 7.7 percent from previous 8.8 percent.
But, the WB and IMF both alarmed that bold and urgent action was needed to reduce extreme poverty and improve people’s economic and social prospects in developing countries in keeping with a set of key development targets, called the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The international institutions warned Pakistan and Afghanistan to come up with strong measures to fight the poverty, which threatened overall economic growth of the country.
“Against this backdrop, the universal primary education, gender equality, child mortality and major disease MDGs would appear within reach of most of the countries in the region, with only Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the poorer states in India remaining off track unless progress quickens substantially,” it added.
It said among eight Asian states India, the largest country in the region with a population of more than one billion had reduced the poverty rate by 7 to 10 percentage points since 1990. Most other countries in the region registered a similarly significant reduction in poverty over the period.
The report suggested that the eight countries of South Asia were home to nearly 40 percent of the world’s poor living on less than a dollar a day, with income per capita in the order of $460. However, the bank pinpointed three places in the South Asia region, standing out with good MDG indicators of their income levels. “Sri Lanka and the Indian state of Kerala have an established pattern of good performance that reflects the priority successive post-independence governments have given to investments in human development,” said the report.
“Bangladesh’s success has owed much to an effective scaling up of basic services built in large part on a combination of effective partnerships between the public sector and NGOs and the resulting high degree of community involvement, local innovation and experimentation.”
#8 Posted by Romair on April 13, 2005 5:04:48 pm
``Just one Housing Project, i.e. Bahria Town, has signed agreements involving $11 billion with Malaysian companies. Compare this with $2 billion offered to Pakistan for providing facilities to the US for facilitating the Afghan war``
I am a great admirer of entreprenuers; even of the marginally corrupt ones. Having worked with miltiary people, executives, a few beurecrats, academicians etc. I have found entreprenuers to be, by far, the most competent. Pakistan`s problems will be solved, if it can provide a good environment for its entrepreneurs.
Bahria Town is one of largest private housing schemes in Asia (I read somewhere it is largest in South Asia or all of Asia????). Its owner, the entrepreneur Riaz Malik, paid 75 lakhs for a bat signed by Aamir Khan for a cancer hospital. He just launched a private $11 billion dollar extension to his projects in Pakistan!!! That is three times the annual miltiary budget of the whole country..........Following is an interesting speech by him:
``The Housing Industry is the largest industry of Pakistan. Pakistan is one of the 20 countries of the world where Real Estate business is on top of the list. According to unofficial figures, the turnover of just six housing projects in Pakistan is equal to the annual budget of the country. Recently, for example, the CDA sold two big plots in Islamabad for Rs 12.96 billion at Rs 121.8 million per kanal. To judge the depth of this deal one has to look at the second largest bank of Pakistan viz Habib Bank. It has 1,460 branches all over the country and is operating in125 countries of the world. The bank earns Rs 5 billion profit every year. Last year when it was privatized, it sold for Rs 22 billion only. Only two plots sold by the CDA fetched 60 percent of that amount.
In March 2005, our Bahria Town entered into an agreement with two large consortiums of Malaysia viz TAK and MAX Corp for the following projects worth $11 billion: Phase 7 & 8 of Bahria Town, Rawalpindi; Margalla City on 50,000 acres at Margalla Hills; Bahria Golf City on Expressway; 300 flats in Rawalpindi; 38-storeyed Tower for Bahria Town City Centre according to Dubai design; 60-storey building at Clifton, Karachi.
Just one Housing Project, i.e. Bahria Town, has signed agreements involving $11 billion with Malaysian companies. Compare this with $2 billion offered to Pakistan for providing facilities to the US for facilitating the Afghan war. Thus, I claim that in developing just one sector of Islamabad, Pakistan can get rid of all its foreign loans. By developing four sectors we can increase our foreign exchange reserves to match those of India. But consider the plight of the high-potential industry. It is facing the following major problems.........
We initiated Bahria Town in 1996. There have been four governments since then. The Benazir government demanded a huge amount; Nawaz Sharif’s henchman Saifur Rehman initiated an accountability reference against us, and after October 12, 1999 my arrest warrants were issued by the military government. But Almighty Allah proved us innocent in the cases/references filed against us. :``
(www.dailytimes.com.pk)
I am a great admirer of entreprenuers; even of the marginally corrupt ones. Having worked with miltiary people, executives, a few beurecrats, academicians etc. I have found entreprenuers to be, by far, the most competent. Pakistan`s problems will be solved, if it can provide a good environment for its entrepreneurs.
Bahria Town is one of largest private housing schemes in Asia (I read somewhere it is largest in South Asia or all of Asia????). Its owner, the entrepreneur Riaz Malik, paid 75 lakhs for a bat signed by Aamir Khan for a cancer hospital. He just launched a private $11 billion dollar extension to his projects in Pakistan!!! That is three times the annual miltiary budget of the whole country..........Following is an interesting speech by him:
``The Housing Industry is the largest industry of Pakistan. Pakistan is one of the 20 countries of the world where Real Estate business is on top of the list. According to unofficial figures, the turnover of just six housing projects in Pakistan is equal to the annual budget of the country. Recently, for example, the CDA sold two big plots in Islamabad for Rs 12.96 billion at Rs 121.8 million per kanal. To judge the depth of this deal one has to look at the second largest bank of Pakistan viz Habib Bank. It has 1,460 branches all over the country and is operating in125 countries of the world. The bank earns Rs 5 billion profit every year. Last year when it was privatized, it sold for Rs 22 billion only. Only two plots sold by the CDA fetched 60 percent of that amount.
In March 2005, our Bahria Town entered into an agreement with two large consortiums of Malaysia viz TAK and MAX Corp for the following projects worth $11 billion: Phase 7 & 8 of Bahria Town, Rawalpindi; Margalla City on 50,000 acres at Margalla Hills; Bahria Golf City on Expressway; 300 flats in Rawalpindi; 38-storeyed Tower for Bahria Town City Centre according to Dubai design; 60-storey building at Clifton, Karachi.
Just one Housing Project, i.e. Bahria Town, has signed agreements involving $11 billion with Malaysian companies. Compare this with $2 billion offered to Pakistan for providing facilities to the US for facilitating the Afghan war. Thus, I claim that in developing just one sector of Islamabad, Pakistan can get rid of all its foreign loans. By developing four sectors we can increase our foreign exchange reserves to match those of India. But consider the plight of the high-potential industry. It is facing the following major problems.........
We initiated Bahria Town in 1996. There have been four governments since then. The Benazir government demanded a huge amount; Nawaz Sharif’s henchman Saifur Rehman initiated an accountability reference against us, and after October 12, 1999 my arrest warrants were issued by the military government. But Almighty Allah proved us innocent in the cases/references filed against us. :``
(www.dailytimes.com.pk)
#9 Posted by malikjahanzeb on April 13, 2005 6:38:43 pm
Re: # 8 romair,
the guy talks sense. our biggest problem is indeed our own society which is run as an inefficient machine. but with current human resources, how can run the machine effciently?
the guy talks sense. our biggest problem is indeed our own society which is run as an inefficient machine. but with current human resources, how can run the machine effciently?
#10 Posted by HisExcellency on April 13, 2005 6:52:42 pm
re: Kamal Siddiqi
Your analysis is very thorough and convincing. The Musharraf govt has achieved remarkable success in Pakistan`s economic turnaround.
However, much more needs to be done. And in the right places.
NWFP and Balochistan are Pakistan`s poorest provinces with the highest infant mortality and illiteracy rates. The % of people living below the poverty line is 25% and 31% in Punjab and Sindh respectively. But these numbers are 65% and 81% for NWFP and Balochistan, respectively. These provinces still lack infrastructure. Just building a few dams and sea ports will not be enough.
NWFP`s case is slightly tricky because the MMA govt has not allowed NGOs to set up rural support programs, literacy and women`s health initiatives that we find in Punjab and interior Sindh. NGOs can play a critical role in supplementing the government`s social development programme in NWFP and Balochistan.
Another area that needs improvement is micro-lending along the lines of Grameen Bank in Bangladesh.
Your analysis is very thorough and convincing. The Musharraf govt has achieved remarkable success in Pakistan`s economic turnaround.
However, much more needs to be done. And in the right places.
NWFP and Balochistan are Pakistan`s poorest provinces with the highest infant mortality and illiteracy rates. The % of people living below the poverty line is 25% and 31% in Punjab and Sindh respectively. But these numbers are 65% and 81% for NWFP and Balochistan, respectively. These provinces still lack infrastructure. Just building a few dams and sea ports will not be enough.
NWFP`s case is slightly tricky because the MMA govt has not allowed NGOs to set up rural support programs, literacy and women`s health initiatives that we find in Punjab and interior Sindh. NGOs can play a critical role in supplementing the government`s social development programme in NWFP and Balochistan.
Another area that needs improvement is micro-lending along the lines of Grameen Bank in Bangladesh.
#11 Posted by cayenne on April 14, 2005 2:11:56 am
#8 by Romair on April 13, 2005 5:04pm PT
By developing four sectors we can increase our foreign exchange reserves to match those of India. But consider the plight of......
Here we go again...........
PAKISTAN
Gross Domestic Product
GDP at purchasing power parity: $293 billion (2003 est.)
Real growth rate: 6.4% (2003 est.) current 6.5%
Per capita GDP at purchasing power parity - $2,080 (2003 est.)
Composition by sector: (2002-03 est.)
agriculture: 23.2%
industry: 25%
services: 50.7%
Population below poverty line: 38.3%
INDIA
GDP Ranking 4th
Gross Domestic Product(GDP)
GDP at PPP $3.033 trillion
GDP real growth rate 8.3% (2003) current 6.9%
GDP per Capita $2,900
GDP by sector agriculture (23.6%), industry (28.4%), services (48%)
Demographics
Population below poverty line 25%
Forex reserves decline in pakistan
http://www.dawn.com/2005/01/03/ebr18.htm
03 January 2005 Monday 21 Ziqa`ad 1425
Forex reserves decline
According to the Statement of Affairs of the State Bank of Pakistan, for the week ended December 18, 2004, both notes in circulation and those issued declined in the week......
India`s forex reserves
http://in.rediff.com/money/2005/mar/15forex.htm
India`s foreign exchange reserves hit a record high in recent years and are currently placed at $137.55 billion as on the week ending March 4, 2005......................
As i type actual forex reserve is $141.2 billion
I wish pakistan well.My only sadness is that pakistan , instead of aligning with india, which is well on its` way to becoming an economic superpower, is engaging in useless pompous posturing that is only hurting itself in the long run.Pakistan cannot hope to compete with india.Instead, by aligning with india, it can increase its` economy and GDP.I pray the day will come.The whole region will benefit as a result.
By developing four sectors we can increase our foreign exchange reserves to match those of India. But consider the plight of......
Here we go again...........
PAKISTAN
Gross Domestic Product
GDP at purchasing power parity: $293 billion (2003 est.)
Real growth rate: 6.4% (2003 est.) current 6.5%
Per capita GDP at purchasing power parity - $2,080 (2003 est.)
Composition by sector: (2002-03 est.)
agriculture: 23.2%
industry: 25%
services: 50.7%
Population below poverty line: 38.3%
INDIA
GDP Ranking 4th
Gross Domestic Product(GDP)
GDP at PPP $3.033 trillion
GDP real growth rate 8.3% (2003) current 6.9%
GDP per Capita $2,900
GDP by sector agriculture (23.6%), industry (28.4%), services (48%)
Demographics
Population below poverty line 25%
Forex reserves decline in pakistan
http://www.dawn.com/2005/01/03/ebr18.htm
03 January 2005 Monday 21 Ziqa`ad 1425
Forex reserves decline
According to the Statement of Affairs of the State Bank of Pakistan, for the week ended December 18, 2004, both notes in circulation and those issued declined in the week......
India`s forex reserves
http://in.rediff.com/money/2005/mar/15forex.htm
India`s foreign exchange reserves hit a record high in recent years and are currently placed at $137.55 billion as on the week ending March 4, 2005......................
As i type actual forex reserve is $141.2 billion
I wish pakistan well.My only sadness is that pakistan , instead of aligning with india, which is well on its` way to becoming an economic superpower, is engaging in useless pompous posturing that is only hurting itself in the long run.Pakistan cannot hope to compete with india.Instead, by aligning with india, it can increase its` economy and GDP.I pray the day will come.The whole region will benefit as a result.
#12 Posted by cayenne on April 14, 2005 3:18:36 am
We talk to and about each other so much, yet we see so little.Following are links to some of the NCR(National capital Region) area of India.........
http://surajsphotos.fotopic.net/c100245.html
http://surajsphotos.fotopic.net/c100261.html
http://surajsphotos.fotopic.net/c100227.html
http://surajsphotos.fotopic.net/c100329.html
I would like to see `ordinary` photos of pakistan, taken by regular people, not touristy ones!!.Hope someone will be kind and paste some links.
http://surajsphotos.fotopic.net/c100245.html
http://surajsphotos.fotopic.net/c100261.html
http://surajsphotos.fotopic.net/c100227.html
http://surajsphotos.fotopic.net/c100329.html
I would like to see `ordinary` photos of pakistan, taken by regular people, not touristy ones!!.Hope someone will be kind and paste some links.
#13 Posted by Urstruly on April 14, 2005 5:42:49 am
In every society, according to the modern economic system, rising real estate and gold prices are a symbol of weak and worsening economy. People freeze their liquid wealth in this way, because they lose faith in investment, manufacturing, and service industries. The consumer confidence level in general is low.
The reason for recent astronomically high real estate prices in Pakistan is a cancerous desease that is eating us from inside out. The fact of the matter is that every war lord, drug dealer, gun runner, heroine lab owner and poppy grower - who are in fact running the country of Afganistan - is on American payroll and gets paid in US dollars. These dollars end up in Pakistan, and the safest investment and avenue for money laundering in Pakistan is the real estate. There are thousands of expatriates, who have returned to Pakistan from North America, Europe, and Arab States for fear of persecution and they don`t see any future for their kids in theses countries any more. They have brought all the money they had, and they are trying to maintain a standard of living that they got accustomed to in foreign lands, and the first thing they do is to buy their own house. Later they find out that the only sound investment in paksitan is the real estate, so they buy more houses. In addition to that all Generals of na pak army are also on CIA`s payroll and they also get paid in US dollars for their services rendered to pacifying and oppressing a whole nation. That is main reason that na pak army has become the largest group of property dealers in the country. Property dealing has also become a method to ``pay`` low ranking officers for keeping loyal to the rogue military leadership. Everybody has a plot and wants more. The rest of the country is buying ``stuff`` on credit from the banks - the banks get this money on credit from the foreign exchange reserve - FE reserve gets replenished again by US for the services provided to them. So in the end all this money ends up in US through interests and indirect taxes on people of Pakistan. In order to ensure their return on ``investment`` Americans have installed a puppet as Prime Minister, who makes sure that global soodkhors get their money back, by creating inflation and imposing ridiculously high taxes. Comparing this to the British colonial rule, the British oppression and exploitation seems like a childish play.
#14 Posted by Saj1981 on April 14, 2005 5:56:03 am
Hi....Im new to this site...but Ive just done a Masters in development economics and am working on south asian growth project for a bank here in Saudi Arabia..and therefore found a really interesting topic.
Basically the entire South Asian region suffers from some key common barriers to development in the form of generally poor infrastructure, low levels of adult literacy (especially female), wide-spread endemic corruption, poor and weakly enforced judicial system, lack of wide-spread health care etc etc.....these are all well known and documented and the fact that certain states and regions (Kerela in S. India, Sri Lanka)....have successfully countered some areas like literacy and public health...the fundamentals of growth seem not to have been there for these regions with higher ``Social Investment``.....That leads to my fundmental point...that a lot of more recent researchers have pointed out that while social investment or human capital expenditure is neccessary, its not a sufficient condition for long term sustained development. Similarly as the author as noted, economic growth largely based on macro-economic factors, does not translated necessarily in the economic development of a nation as the entire South Asian nation has found. Free market fundamentalism is just as dangerous for our nations as communism in the long-term with our huge populations. Somewhere down the line, an active co-ordination has to be found between social investment friendly policy and market growth policies if we want any kind of sustained long-term growth that will not lead to severe conflict between social classes. The Gini index of inequality, really puts South Asian economies to shame, especially Pakistan, with no single other region than parts of Latin America showing such great inequality. If we want development this mentality has to change and sooner rather than later.
Basically the entire South Asian region suffers from some key common barriers to development in the form of generally poor infrastructure, low levels of adult literacy (especially female), wide-spread endemic corruption, poor and weakly enforced judicial system, lack of wide-spread health care etc etc.....these are all well known and documented and the fact that certain states and regions (Kerela in S. India, Sri Lanka)....have successfully countered some areas like literacy and public health...the fundamentals of growth seem not to have been there for these regions with higher ``Social Investment``.....That leads to my fundmental point...that a lot of more recent researchers have pointed out that while social investment or human capital expenditure is neccessary, its not a sufficient condition for long term sustained development. Similarly as the author as noted, economic growth largely based on macro-economic factors, does not translated necessarily in the economic development of a nation as the entire South Asian nation has found. Free market fundamentalism is just as dangerous for our nations as communism in the long-term with our huge populations. Somewhere down the line, an active co-ordination has to be found between social investment friendly policy and market growth policies if we want any kind of sustained long-term growth that will not lead to severe conflict between social classes. The Gini index of inequality, really puts South Asian economies to shame, especially Pakistan, with no single other region than parts of Latin America showing such great inequality. If we want development this mentality has to change and sooner rather than later.
#15 Posted by Urstruly on April 14, 2005 6:26:42 am
FROM BRITISH COLONIAL OCCUPATION OF PAK TO AMERICAN ONE
#16 Posted by Kulharee on April 14, 2005 7:01:47 am
It is a pretty accurate picture you present, Mr. Kamal Siddiqi. IMF and the World Bank prescribe “Structural Adjustment” while the local dictatorship regimes talk about uppating the growth rate if that will show results (yeah sure!). (It is a boring and chotiya argument to blame the world financial institutions for the genetic stupidity of poor coutries that will remain poor and marginal even without the Fund or the Bank). Your correlation of suicides to unemployment is totally wrong and very non-scholarly. Japan and the Nordic nations have the highest suicide rates despite being fairly progressive and developed nations. The real reasons for poverty in the developing countries are mainly the uneven distribution of resources across gender and ethnic lines (in many cases religious and sectarian lines as well), and self appointed dickheads who seem to have answer to every problem. How in the world can a soldier possibly know anything about backward bending supply curve or a banker about the dependency and modernization theories. Pakistan’s future is that of Yugoslavia’s recent past.
#17 Posted by ferozk on April 14, 2005 7:22:16 am
An excellent article!
As a side note, if I had 75 lakh rupees, I would not waste it on a cricket bat; I would invest it in an educational facility.
Ciao
As a side note, if I had 75 lakh rupees, I would not waste it on a cricket bat; I would invest it in an educational facility.
Ciao
#19 Posted by Faruk on April 14, 2005 7:44:41 am
Re : romair # 8
The rise in property prices in Pakistan is most probably due to the adverse investment climate for Pakistani’s in the post 9/11 scenario. Pakistanis are apprehensive of investing in the west and are moving their money to Pakistan. Real estate is looked upon as a safe bet. If the economic fundamentals do not support the rise there will be a correction.
There was phenomenal rise in property prices in Mumbai in the early nineties. Property prices were the highest in the world. There was a correction and they have not risen for 10 years while property prices have been rising steadily everywhere else in the country.
Regards,
Faruk
#20 Posted by BeeJay on April 14, 2005 7:13:25 pm
What comes through (to me, anyway) from this article is that the growth rate (which would fluctuate over years) is insufficient to help the poor, even if it is “high” for a certain time period. The other key ingredient, which must be supplied over the long run in a sustained manner, is the education of the masses, which in turn will provide all other kinds of secondary benefits leading to a better “trickling down” of the benefits of such growth to them. I am sure Mr. Aziz is aware of this fact, but keeping a positive outlook is perhaps a requirement of his job, and he can only work with the tools that ARE available to him, and act only according to his own training!
I do disagree with the author regarding the linkage he draws between an increasing suicide rate and the state of the economy. The vast majority of individuals living under the same conditions of hardship do not automatically turn to suicide as the “ultimate answer”. In most cases, the depression that leads to such decisions is a REAL disease of the mind which needs to be recognized and treated. There are times when specific events may trigger an act of suicide (if a depressed condition already exists). Examples would include instances such as when numerous individuals committed suicide in India upon death of certain popular movie stars or politicians. However, poverty (being a chronic condition), is unlikely to provide such a trigger. (It just IS.)
#21 Posted by jay on April 14, 2005 8:23:23 pm
Suicides and income
At the macro levels suicides especially teenage suicides increase with income and educational levels, japan and kerala are good examples where suicide rates are comparable.
Pakistans case is different similar to what happens during draught in most parts of india. The crop failures results in unpayable debt burden and many mature age men take this option. In pakistan the crop failure sympton is ever present, where the failure of the civil society leaves no hope for any reasonable person.
The violence of the jihadic criminals, the arbitary actions of the police, ever present exploitation by the military can only compound the travails of poverty. A country where army has farming rights, where it makes corn flakes to cement, which has the highest number of armoured cars, where it has siezed the fishing rights to a lake...wel any one who is alive in pakistan lives in a dark hole.
At the macro levels suicides especially teenage suicides increase with income and educational levels, japan and kerala are good examples where suicide rates are comparable.
Pakistans case is different similar to what happens during draught in most parts of india. The crop failures results in unpayable debt burden and many mature age men take this option. In pakistan the crop failure sympton is ever present, where the failure of the civil society leaves no hope for any reasonable person.
The violence of the jihadic criminals, the arbitary actions of the police, ever present exploitation by the military can only compound the travails of poverty. A country where army has farming rights, where it makes corn flakes to cement, which has the highest number of armoured cars, where it has siezed the fishing rights to a lake...wel any one who is alive in pakistan lives in a dark hole.
#22 Posted by jay on April 14, 2005 9:17:33 pm
Romair..romair
Before you post the next one on 10 billion in reserves for pakistan, cut the following out and paste on your bedroom wall...it is from jang of today. Note the details..8.30 in the morning...the killers cooly walked away. That has the hall mark of a jihadic killing, the cold blooded dont care for a damn and wantom killing. The man must have been from another sect, religion, ahmadia. Like so many of the doctors ho were killed.
That is collapse of civic society and no amoount of $, not even a trillion dollar housing project can change. To change that you have to sink deep into your hearts, the history, the pak.org history, the vaues that made ghori to be honoured with name of a missile while abdus salam will not even get a promary school named after him. That is the ore social value of pakistan which impressed so much the stuka the dost mitters of india
Open letter to the President
Sher Khan
Dear General:
For most people of this country, April 1 this year was just another day in the daily grind for survival, 11 billion dollars or so in our foreign exchange reserves and mega projects notwithstanding. For my extended family and me, it will always remain etched indelibly in our memories as the day when Saleem Azeem, my younger brother ten years my junior, was held up, shot twice in the head at point blank range no more than one hundred metres from his home in Karachi DHA Phase 8, as he was being driven to work along with his 22 year old daughter at about 8:30 am.
He died instantly, slumped on his daughter`s shoulder. The murderers casually walked to their getaway car and drove away. On hearing the shots Saleem`s 20 year old son came out to see what was happening, to find his father shot dead in cold-blooded murder. This episode, lasting not more than a minute or so, turned our whole world topsy-turvy forever.
Saleem was no terrorist, gangster, mafia don, smuggler, sectarian leader, fundamentalist rabble-rouser. He was not a politician, had no feud or even a quarrel with any body, and had never harmed any one in his entire life. He was just a 55-year-old business executive working with a multinational, who chose to return to Pakistan after a four year stint in Sri Lanka to be in his own country, just going off to work for a living. A more lovable and caring person would be har
Before you post the next one on 10 billion in reserves for pakistan, cut the following out and paste on your bedroom wall...it is from jang of today. Note the details..8.30 in the morning...the killers cooly walked away. That has the hall mark of a jihadic killing, the cold blooded dont care for a damn and wantom killing. The man must have been from another sect, religion, ahmadia. Like so many of the doctors ho were killed.
That is collapse of civic society and no amoount of $, not even a trillion dollar housing project can change. To change that you have to sink deep into your hearts, the history, the pak.org history, the vaues that made ghori to be honoured with name of a missile while abdus salam will not even get a promary school named after him. That is the ore social value of pakistan which impressed so much the stuka the dost mitters of india
Open letter to the President
Sher Khan
Dear General:
For most people of this country, April 1 this year was just another day in the daily grind for survival, 11 billion dollars or so in our foreign exchange reserves and mega projects notwithstanding. For my extended family and me, it will always remain etched indelibly in our memories as the day when Saleem Azeem, my younger brother ten years my junior, was held up, shot twice in the head at point blank range no more than one hundred metres from his home in Karachi DHA Phase 8, as he was being driven to work along with his 22 year old daughter at about 8:30 am.
He died instantly, slumped on his daughter`s shoulder. The murderers casually walked to their getaway car and drove away. On hearing the shots Saleem`s 20 year old son came out to see what was happening, to find his father shot dead in cold-blooded murder. This episode, lasting not more than a minute or so, turned our whole world topsy-turvy forever.
Saleem was no terrorist, gangster, mafia don, smuggler, sectarian leader, fundamentalist rabble-rouser. He was not a politician, had no feud or even a quarrel with any body, and had never harmed any one in his entire life. He was just a 55-year-old business executive working with a multinational, who chose to return to Pakistan after a four year stint in Sri Lanka to be in his own country, just going off to work for a living. A more lovable and caring person would be har
#23 Posted by ghazalmir11 on April 14, 2005 9:19:40 pm
Excellent article. Any mention of SPDC means the writing is a must-read anyway. Kudos to the SPDC team for consistently bringing excellent social development literature to the table.
Interesting how we sit up and listen when the IMF or the WB tell us we are doing poorly. The situation as some of the readers mentioned is not as simple as who to lay the blame on. The money that you desperately need for your grandiose (sometimes redundant projects, like the Kalabagh Dam) can only come from these multilaterals. Being a third world country is no fun, you have to listen to the dictates of the hand that feeds, even when you know the cons outweigh the pros. The structural adjustment facilities the social action programs...all of them added to the numbers below the poverty line not just in Pakistan but in several other nations as well. According to one study, 12 out of 15 African nations that were included in WB economic programs did more poorly in poverty statistics than non-participant nations.
But then that is only part of the story. Each country has the right to take its own actions. If we take the example of India`s fiercely independent inward-looking economic policies of a couple of decades ago we can see one reason why it is dictating the global market right now. I am not saying that is necessarily the way to go for Pakistan, but searching for indigenous solutions to our growing income inequality certainly is. The Pakistani leadership is in a position to take some bold steps right now, it has done so on many levels already so why not now abolish a meance like feudalism? If India did it years ago, so can we. The poorest of the poor is the landless peasant who sells his labor to the landowner for a non-existent fee, his future generations are mortgaged by the landowner, who is also the village moneylender. This is the worst form of economic abuse.
If combating poverty has to be a priority it has to be many-pronged approach. Literacy and employment growth are certainly two of the most important factors, but then so is improving rural economic sustainability, since that is where the bulk of our population lives. If there are improvements in rural infrastructure, there will be sustainable rural economic growth which will also help decrease rural migrants to the cities, in turn easing pressure from the limited employment and housing opportunities in the cities.
Ghazal
Interesting how we sit up and listen when the IMF or the WB tell us we are doing poorly. The situation as some of the readers mentioned is not as simple as who to lay the blame on. The money that you desperately need for your grandiose (sometimes redundant projects, like the Kalabagh Dam) can only come from these multilaterals. Being a third world country is no fun, you have to listen to the dictates of the hand that feeds, even when you know the cons outweigh the pros. The structural adjustment facilities the social action programs...all of them added to the numbers below the poverty line not just in Pakistan but in several other nations as well. According to one study, 12 out of 15 African nations that were included in WB economic programs did more poorly in poverty statistics than non-participant nations.
But then that is only part of the story. Each country has the right to take its own actions. If we take the example of India`s fiercely independent inward-looking economic policies of a couple of decades ago we can see one reason why it is dictating the global market right now. I am not saying that is necessarily the way to go for Pakistan, but searching for indigenous solutions to our growing income inequality certainly is. The Pakistani leadership is in a position to take some bold steps right now, it has done so on many levels already so why not now abolish a meance like feudalism? If India did it years ago, so can we. The poorest of the poor is the landless peasant who sells his labor to the landowner for a non-existent fee, his future generations are mortgaged by the landowner, who is also the village moneylender. This is the worst form of economic abuse.
If combating poverty has to be a priority it has to be many-pronged approach. Literacy and employment growth are certainly two of the most important factors, but then so is improving rural economic sustainability, since that is where the bulk of our population lives. If there are improvements in rural infrastructure, there will be sustainable rural economic growth which will also help decrease rural migrants to the cities, in turn easing pressure from the limited employment and housing opportunities in the cities.
Ghazal
#24 Posted by cayenne on April 15, 2005 12:40:02 am
I was actually kinda proud to be indian today morning.Getting ready almost all the news channels i clicked on, BBC, CNN. NDTV, DD,Headline news , STAR all had blurbs of Condoleeza Rice and Natwar Singh`s press conference where she used the two terms ``global factor`` and ``global influence`` when alluding to India.They showed photos of Natwar meeting Bush and said Bush described india as a ``global power``.The chinese have now officially mentioned that they welcome india for a permanent seat at the UNSC.Meanwhile the stock market has been crashing in Mumbai.Too much of a good thing i guess!!.Anyways, we all know that the stock market is just a legal scam anywhere in the world.The indian economy is real now, its` strength is real and more so its` potential.That the world is acknowledging us is what makes me happy.
I raise a toast to the average indian, exemplified by the middle classes, not sophisticated or intellectual, but doggone intelligent and hardworking, now reaping the fruits of their labor.They drive the same cars as their counterparts in the west, enjoy the same lifestyle ,and what with airlines competing to enter india and indian carriers allowed unfettered access the world over , vacationing abroad is becoming as common as a vacation in india.Air India`s low cost arm, Air India Express is offering an inaugral airfare of Rs.2750.00 from new delhi to dubai this month!!!.Hey, even an autorickshaw driver can take a trip outta the country for the weekend.The india of today is exemplified by young people like Shahzad kalim, 24 years old and winner of Lakme Fashion House, a reality show on STARONE!!.His parents wanted him to be a doctor someday, but instead he chose fashion, went on this show and caught the attention of Donatella Versace, who was in Mumbai and was one of the judges in the finals!!!!.Good luck to him and all the other young indians who are breaking out of the stereotype of doctor, engineer, accountant treadmill.Also, the kid from the lower middle class suburb of Mumbai who went on to become the first ``indian idol`` is all set to release his first album.Good luck to him too!!!.
Also, saw a blurb of Musharaf describing the LoC as a ``soft border`` to two white tv interviewers!!!.Reality my friends.I like Mush.He knows when to fold and does it in style.Good man.`
I raise a toast to the average indian, exemplified by the middle classes, not sophisticated or intellectual, but doggone intelligent and hardworking, now reaping the fruits of their labor.They drive the same cars as their counterparts in the west, enjoy the same lifestyle ,and what with airlines competing to enter india and indian carriers allowed unfettered access the world over , vacationing abroad is becoming as common as a vacation in india.Air India`s low cost arm, Air India Express is offering an inaugral airfare of Rs.2750.00 from new delhi to dubai this month!!!.Hey, even an autorickshaw driver can take a trip outta the country for the weekend.The india of today is exemplified by young people like Shahzad kalim, 24 years old and winner of Lakme Fashion House, a reality show on STARONE!!.His parents wanted him to be a doctor someday, but instead he chose fashion, went on this show and caught the attention of Donatella Versace, who was in Mumbai and was one of the judges in the finals!!!!.Good luck to him and all the other young indians who are breaking out of the stereotype of doctor, engineer, accountant treadmill.Also, the kid from the lower middle class suburb of Mumbai who went on to become the first ``indian idol`` is all set to release his first album.Good luck to him too!!!.
Also, saw a blurb of Musharaf describing the LoC as a ``soft border`` to two white tv interviewers!!!.Reality my friends.I like Mush.He knows when to fold and does it in style.Good man.`
#25 Posted by cayenne on April 15, 2005 1:05:52 am
I forgot to mention in my earlier interact #24.......excellent article, and more so intelligent interacts, except mine!!!..Yes , there is a reason why i`m trying to bring up india as an example in the south asian region.If we(indians) can do it and get the world to respect us, pakistan can too.If pakistan can do it independantly, all power to them, but i believe that if pakistan were to join india in creating a free market for south asia, all the peoples of the region will benefit.India by itself is a big market.You have to give the devil its` due.pakistan should be more accomodating towards india for its` own advantage!!!.
#26 Posted by bbabu on April 15, 2005 3:03:01 am
ghazalmir11 #23
`` Interesting how we sit up and listen when the IMF or the WB tell us we are doing poorly. The situation as some of the readers mentioned is not as simple as who to lay the blame on. The money that you desperately need for your grandiose (sometimes redundant projects, like the Kalabagh Dam) can only come from these multilaterals. Being a third world country is no fun, you have to listen to the dictates of the hand that feeds, even when you know the cons outweigh the pros. The structural adjustment facilities the social action programs...all of them added to the numbers below the poverty line not just in Pakistan but in several other nations as well. According to one study, 12 out of 15 African nations that were included in WB economic programs did more poorly in poverty statistics than non-participant nations. ``
`` But then that is only part of the story. Each country has the right to take its own actions. If we take the example of India`s fiercely independent inward-looking economic policies of a couple of decades ago we can see one reason why it is dictating the global market right now. I am not saying that is necessarily the way to go for Pakistan, but searching for indigenous solutions to our growing income inequality certainly is. The Pakistani leadership is in a position to take some bold steps right now, it has done so on many levels already so why not now abolish a meance like feudalism? If India did it years ago, so can we. The poorest of the poor is the landless peasant who sells his labor to the landowner for a non-existent fee, his future generations are mortgaged by the landowner, who is also the village moneylender. This is the worst form of economic abuse. ``
Indian economic policies of the past were a disaster. If India had launched its reforms in the mid-1970s instead of 1990 you would be looking at a economy twice or thrice the size.
You are right about every country seeking its own path to success.
#27 Posted by fuzair on April 15, 2005 7:50:25 am
GDP growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for poverty reduction and if we have learnt anything from the past several decades of Third World (lack of) economic development, it is that institutions and incentives matter.
Is there any ``magic bullets?`` Sure there are. Build adequate infrastructure (roads, power plants, etc), build enough schools, keep the tax rate, inflation rates, and govt budget deficits low, keep investment high, keep the bureaucracy (relatively) honest, and keep increasing both exports and the value-added/high-tech component of exports. You may not be guaranteed to succeed spectacularly, but at least you are guaranteed not to fail spectacularly either.
This is, of course, a very simple policy prescription. As Von Clausewitz said, ``winning a war is a very simple matter; but in war it is the simplest things that are the hardest.`` For better or worse, this is the best government we`ve had in a veeeery long time. Scary isn`t it? Bad as he is, Musharraf still looks good in comparison.
++++++++++++++++
Side note to the hyper progressives and professional critics of the SDPC, have you bothered to work out the correlation (I won`t say causation... yet) between
``In the mean time, the level of poverty deteriorated to 34 per cent of the total population at present as against 30.6 per cent in the 1990s. This tells us that the poor in Pakistan are getting even poorer.``
And the fact that we breed like rabbits?
Lets not hold the people responsible for their own actions. Quick blame the usual suspects! Army! IMF! WB! DC!
Our TFR was still well above 5 (some say just above 6!!!!) during the 1980s and 1990s while India`s was about 3-3.5 in that time period (Sri Lanka`s was even lower). Maybe Malthus was right (in this context at least). The poor and stupid will breed themselves down to the lowest possible level.
Why is our TFR so high? Are we too stupid to realize the connection between population growth and poverty growth? I don`t think so. If you look at Orangi, it has a pretty low TFR and the women there actually want to know about contraception. Is it Islam? Probably not. Other muslim countries have much lower TFRs. So what gives? I vote for the particulary stupid and Saudi-influenced brand of Islam we`ve got. People have other candidates?
Is there any ``magic bullets?`` Sure there are. Build adequate infrastructure (roads, power plants, etc), build enough schools, keep the tax rate, inflation rates, and govt budget deficits low, keep investment high, keep the bureaucracy (relatively) honest, and keep increasing both exports and the value-added/high-tech component of exports. You may not be guaranteed to succeed spectacularly, but at least you are guaranteed not to fail spectacularly either.
This is, of course, a very simple policy prescription. As Von Clausewitz said, ``winning a war is a very simple matter; but in war it is the simplest things that are the hardest.`` For better or worse, this is the best government we`ve had in a veeeery long time. Scary isn`t it? Bad as he is, Musharraf still looks good in comparison.
++++++++++++++++
Side note to the hyper progressives and professional critics of the SDPC, have you bothered to work out the correlation (I won`t say causation... yet) between
``In the mean time, the level of poverty deteriorated to 34 per cent of the total population at present as against 30.6 per cent in the 1990s. This tells us that the poor in Pakistan are getting even poorer.``
And the fact that we breed like rabbits?
Lets not hold the people responsible for their own actions. Quick blame the usual suspects! Army! IMF! WB! DC!
Our TFR was still well above 5 (some say just above 6!!!!) during the 1980s and 1990s while India`s was about 3-3.5 in that time period (Sri Lanka`s was even lower). Maybe Malthus was right (in this context at least). The poor and stupid will breed themselves down to the lowest possible level.
Why is our TFR so high? Are we too stupid to realize the connection between population growth and poverty growth? I don`t think so. If you look at Orangi, it has a pretty low TFR and the women there actually want to know about contraception. Is it Islam? Probably not. Other muslim countries have much lower TFRs. So what gives? I vote for the particulary stupid and Saudi-influenced brand of Islam we`ve got. People have other candidates?
#28 Posted by SyedAhmed on April 15, 2005 10:14:55 am
As so many posters have iterated over and over again that GDP growth - althought it does contribute to the bottom line - its not the only requisite for poverty alleviation...Strengthening of the social institutions is equally if not more important.
GDP growth requires a freer market economy - free from the shakles of Govt beauracracy - a fact that is not yet accomplished by the GOvt at present...
Secondly it requires strong instituitions of remedial recourse ie a strong judiciary - which the present Govt has actualy weakened
Also civil security ie- the police force needs to be decentralized- and held locally accountable in the metropolitan areas - a task in which the army is an actual impediment
because a weak police ensures a stronger army strangehold. Moreover the paindoo siblings of the army generals are often found in the police forces - thereby creating a patronage system for the army families.....
Sooner or later the GDP growth will also slow down because of the aforementioned reasons...
Social spending ie - infracstructure and most importantly human resource development is an essential component of GDP growth. GDP growth requires access to Capital - which an efficient Banking system and a stable macroeconomic polices can provide , - raw materials - both for agriculture or industrial sector - which requires a well developed infrastructure to reduce transaction costs - and a skilled labor force - which is in short supply - because of an archaic educational infrastructure.... and last of all a multi-faceted intelligensia which is able to to generate ideas on the basis on which both GDP growth and social development can be on par - The last component is completely missing in the Pakistani body politic - There are no well developed institutions that nurture economic or social policy goals in pakistan. Part of it is cultural - and the values the culture espouses - Its is inherently tribal - consequently broad based thinking does not exist - and the value system tends to produce technical coolies ( you need not go to Pakistan to see this - of the 1.5 M Pakistani emigres to North America , many with advanced technical qualifications ( primarily physicians and engineers) - a cohesive broad based vision does not exist - even in specfic disciplines , for a variety of reasons, -this intellectual complacency can easily be contrasted with emigre populations of both the INdians as well as the jewish communities) - consequently leadership in soci-economic policies is primarily based on political loyalties as opposed to intellectual capital. Consequently debates revolve around abdicating responsibility and a messianic belief of a Mehdi - be it MUsharraf or Shaukat Aziz to resolve all issues....
GDP growth requires a freer market economy - free from the shakles of Govt beauracracy - a fact that is not yet accomplished by the GOvt at present...
Secondly it requires strong instituitions of remedial recourse ie a strong judiciary - which the present Govt has actualy weakened
Also civil security ie- the police force needs to be decentralized- and held locally accountable in the metropolitan areas - a task in which the army is an actual impediment
because a weak police ensures a stronger army strangehold. Moreover the paindoo siblings of the army generals are often found in the police forces - thereby creating a patronage system for the army families.....
Sooner or later the GDP growth will also slow down because of the aforementioned reasons...
Social spending ie - infracstructure and most importantly human resource development is an essential component of GDP growth. GDP growth requires access to Capital - which an efficient Banking system and a stable macroeconomic polices can provide , - raw materials - both for agriculture or industrial sector - which requires a well developed infrastructure to reduce transaction costs - and a skilled labor force - which is in short supply - because of an archaic educational infrastructure.... and last of all a multi-faceted intelligensia which is able to to generate ideas on the basis on which both GDP growth and social development can be on par - The last component is completely missing in the Pakistani body politic - There are no well developed institutions that nurture economic or social policy goals in pakistan. Part of it is cultural - and the values the culture espouses - Its is inherently tribal - consequently broad based thinking does not exist - and the value system tends to produce technical coolies ( you need not go to Pakistan to see this - of the 1.5 M Pakistani emigres to North America , many with advanced technical qualifications ( primarily physicians and engineers) - a cohesive broad based vision does not exist - even in specfic disciplines , for a variety of reasons, -this intellectual complacency can easily be contrasted with emigre populations of both the INdians as well as the jewish communities) - consequently leadership in soci-economic policies is primarily based on political loyalties as opposed to intellectual capital. Consequently debates revolve around abdicating responsibility and a messianic belief of a Mehdi - be it MUsharraf or Shaukat Aziz to resolve all issues....
#29 Posted by bbabu on April 15, 2005 10:15:12 am
fuzair #27
`` GDP growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for poverty reduction and if we have learnt anything from the past several decades of Third World (lack of) economic development, it is that institutions and incentives matter. ``
necessary not sufficient is the right pharse. But I will be surprised if sustained economic growth does not lift people out of poverty. This assumes that there are no cultural or govt restrictions.
`` Our TFR was still well above 5 (some say just above 6!!!!) during the 1980s and 1990s while India`s was about 3-3.5 in that time period (Sri Lanka`s was even lower). Maybe Malthus was right (in this context at least). The poor and stupid will breed themselves down to the lowest possible level. ``
Pakistan received a lot of $$$ from the West for supporting anti-Soviet rebels in Afghanistan and from the Gulf states in terms of remmittances for low skilled workers. The $$$ from the West have flowed in temporarily post 9-11.
`` GDP growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for poverty reduction and if we have learnt anything from the past several decades of Third World (lack of) economic development, it is that institutions and incentives matter. ``
necessary not sufficient is the right pharse. But I will be surprised if sustained economic growth does not lift people out of poverty. This assumes that there are no cultural or govt restrictions.
`` Our TFR was still well above 5 (some say just above 6!!!!) during the 1980s and 1990s while India`s was about 3-3.5 in that time period (Sri Lanka`s was even lower). Maybe Malthus was right (in this context at least). The poor and stupid will breed themselves down to the lowest possible level. ``
Pakistan received a lot of $$$ from the West for supporting anti-Soviet rebels in Afghanistan and from the Gulf states in terms of remmittances for low skilled workers. The $$$ from the West have flowed in temporarily post 9-11.
#30 Posted by HisExcellency on April 15, 2005 5:06:10 pm
In July 2002, the Asian Development Bank published a detailed study titled the Poverty in Pakistan: Issues, Causes, and Institutional Responses.
In this paper, the ADB first made the following observations:
In this paper, the ADB first made the following observations:
- The % of people living below the poverty line increased from 26% in 1991 to 35% in 1999.
- The starkest increase in povert was in rural areas where % of people below poverty line increased from 24% to 40%!
- Rural poverty is highest (44%) in NWFP.
- Within Punjab, the poorest districts are in Southern Punjab (Dera Ghazi Khan, Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalnagar, Muzaffargarh, Layyah and Rajanpur)
- Although overall poverty level is 35%, the overall poverty level for females is 52%.
- The average fee of a government school in Pakistan is Rs 1,675 per year. The average fee of a private school is Rs 4,477 per year.
- 65% of children in Balochistan and Sindh do not get basic immunization from diseases such as TB, tetnus, measles and polio each year
- A typical poor Pakistani household is headed by a 40-year old male with 7 or more children who (like their parents) will never go to school, will never get basic immunization and live in a village.
#31 Posted by HisExcellency on April 15, 2005 5:16:01 pm
The ADB report then goes on the enumerate the causes of poverty in Pakistan:
- Pakistan agricultural sector grew only 1.75% whereas manufacturing and services sectors grew by 4.5% during the 1990s. Since agricultural sector employs 65% of the workforce, its sluggish growth impacts more households.
- Government investment in social sector decreased from 9% of GDP to 5.5% during the 1990s. But the private sector did not fill this gap. Private investment stagnated at the 7.5% level throughout 1990s
#32 Posted by satyamvada on April 15, 2005 9:08:37 pm
In Pakiland, the Army is the land developer.
In India, the Army leaves the major cantonments in cities and hands over its
properties to the civilians.
That is the difference between Pakis and the dhoticlad-bania-yindoo
Of course, some indian-punjabi fools go to Pakiland and tell us we are all the same
because we eat similiar food.
#33 Posted by cayenne on April 16, 2005 1:44:19 am
#32 by satyamvada on April 15, 2005 9:08pm PT
In Pakiland, the Army is the land developer.
In India, the Army leaves the major cantonments in cities and hands over its
properties to the civilians.
In india, the armed forces folks do enjoy priveleges.They are subsidized on quite a few levels, from housing to groceries.They even buy booze at army stores at one half the price civilians pay.But that is the end of it.Their purview is the business of army-ing and what they can squeeze out of it for themselves in the form of a few perks here and there.The army does not `hand` over anything to civilians!!.They have nothing to hand over.Technicaly all govt. land is owned by the people and the crooks we elect lord over it all.Private contractors bid for army building contracts and supplies.That is a very lucrative industry.What a difference between pakistan and india!!!.Imagine how the army chief of india would feel when comparing himself to the army chief of pakistan!!.Here in dilli he has to dance to the tune of so many satraps and ministers.Every major expenditure has to be okayed by a parliament or cabinet committee.And the indian army chief commands the third largest standing army in the world!!!.Yet, a phone call from Congress party president sonia gandhi or leader of opposition l k advani will give him the willies , as by law he is answerable to them as they are reps of the people!!!.Such is life.
In Pakiland, the Army is the land developer.
In India, the Army leaves the major cantonments in cities and hands over its
properties to the civilians.
In india, the armed forces folks do enjoy priveleges.They are subsidized on quite a few levels, from housing to groceries.They even buy booze at army stores at one half the price civilians pay.But that is the end of it.Their purview is the business of army-ing and what they can squeeze out of it for themselves in the form of a few perks here and there.The army does not `hand` over anything to civilians!!.They have nothing to hand over.Technicaly all govt. land is owned by the people and the crooks we elect lord over it all.Private contractors bid for army building contracts and supplies.That is a very lucrative industry.What a difference between pakistan and india!!!.Imagine how the army chief of india would feel when comparing himself to the army chief of pakistan!!.Here in dilli he has to dance to the tune of so many satraps and ministers.Every major expenditure has to be okayed by a parliament or cabinet committee.And the indian army chief commands the third largest standing army in the world!!!.Yet, a phone call from Congress party president sonia gandhi or leader of opposition l k advani will give him the willies , as by law he is answerable to them as they are reps of the people!!!.Such is life.
#34 Posted by Mukhlis on April 16, 2005 3:25:54 am
Re#23 by Ghazalmir11
``The Pakistani leadership is in a position to take some bold steps right now, it has done so on many levels already so why not now abolish a meance like feudalism?``
And who`s gonna give fraudulent legitimacy to military regimes if feudalism is abolished? Who`s gonna fill the ballot boxes with jaali votes and give 97 % results in favor of our warrior generals if that happens? Do you think Shaukat Aziz could have been chosen Pakistan`s PM if the assemblies were not full of feudals & lotas?
In earlier days, these feudals worked as pawns of the British colonialists. They would subjugate local population to reap rewards & benefits from the British. Brits needed these feudals as they were the Crown`s link with the local populace and helped keep ``peace & calm`` in the lands of the Raj. In turn the feudals were gifted with land.
Now the roles have changed slightly. Instead of British colonialists, it is the Fauji colonialists who have taken over. Everything else is almost the same. Feudals do the army`s bidding, and keep their perks, Pajeros & their MNA seats. Army in return, can claim a facade of legitimacy. Why would an Army want to do away with such a sure fire way of claiming legitimacy? It is a perfect formula for success and the generals are not gonna shoot themselves in the foot by abolishing feudalism.
``The Pakistani leadership is in a position to take some bold steps right now, it has done so on many levels already so why not now abolish a meance like feudalism?``
And who`s gonna give fraudulent legitimacy to military regimes if feudalism is abolished? Who`s gonna fill the ballot boxes with jaali votes and give 97 % results in favor of our warrior generals if that happens? Do you think Shaukat Aziz could have been chosen Pakistan`s PM if the assemblies were not full of feudals & lotas?
In earlier days, these feudals worked as pawns of the British colonialists. They would subjugate local population to reap rewards & benefits from the British. Brits needed these feudals as they were the Crown`s link with the local populace and helped keep ``peace & calm`` in the lands of the Raj. In turn the feudals were gifted with land.
Now the roles have changed slightly. Instead of British colonialists, it is the Fauji colonialists who have taken over. Everything else is almost the same. Feudals do the army`s bidding, and keep their perks, Pajeros & their MNA seats. Army in return, can claim a facade of legitimacy. Why would an Army want to do away with such a sure fire way of claiming legitimacy? It is a perfect formula for success and the generals are not gonna shoot themselves in the foot by abolishing feudalism.
#35 Posted by Romair on April 16, 2005 7:34:32 am
Interesting article on the lack of enthusiasm, within PPP, for its leader(s):
``More conspicuous in their absence were party workers.
The Punjab government had undoubtedly done its bit to disrupt the welcome, blocking buses coming in from Sindh and the rest of Punjab....Police arrested some protesters who did show for the return...Police even snatched cameras from newsmen.
But that only partly explains why Mr Zardari`s return was such a non-event for normal Lahoris....The answer, say some analysts, may lie in the shift that has taken place in the city`s political culture over the years....From a sleepy backwater in the mid-1990s, it has turned into one of the most vibrant urban economies in the country.
The two terms of former premier Nawaz Sharif - the only Lahori to have made it to the country`s top executive post not once but twice - have transformed the city....Its network of roads is by far the best in the country and public transport is far more efficient than in any other city.....Lahore has also turned into the hub of the country`s IT and media industry.
Thousands of idle young men who would sit up late at night discussing the merits of democracy until only a few years ago now return dog-tired from a hectic day at work....They would much rather tune in to cable TV than risk a confrontation with the police.....Especially when they are not clear what it is they are fighting for.
For most of them, such activity is now best left to those who support the ``mentors of Mullah Omar``.
If he needs a grand reception, Mr Zardari perhaps needs to explain what he has to offer that the Lahoris do not already have. `` (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4451823.stm)
Urban Pakistan, unlike rural/feudal Pakistan (which is still 2/3rd of Pakistan) is relatively dynamic politically. There was a time when PPP owned Punjab. Punjab was actually the only province where Bhutto won an all-out majority, in the early 70s election. He did not win an all-out majority even in Sind. And in East Pakistan, he won nothing.
However, now PML owns Punjab. Even in its broken form of six different parties, it won an all-out majority in Punjab. When it was united in the previous election, it won almost every seat.
Karachi used to be the center of Jamaat-i-Islami politics. However, MQM completely defeated it. And has been winning since then. There was a point where it could literally nominate a donkey and beat any maulvi of the Jamaat.
Urban NWFP used to be owned by Awami National Party. They were completely wiped out by the MMA maulvis in the last election, due to the ANP`s lack of opposition to the US bombing in Afghanistan. And the lack of economic progress under ANP.
Feudal politics, however, has remained the same. Which is why PPP and to some extent PML will always remain the top parties. 62% or so of the elected assembly has traditionally been feudal. And they are always the exact same people, or their kids - generation after generation. In many cases, the candidates of the two opposing parties are even related........
It would, however, be interesting to see what would happen if Lahore was taken away from the PML (and PPP) by some truly new middle class urban party. Currently, Karachi is the only city, whose voters have been able to achieve middle-class leadership (good or bad is a different story). Lahoris are still caught up in a feudal mindset..........
Ending feudalism is the biggest step to ending poverty. Invariably, the most backwards and poorest areas in Pakistan are the ones still run by tribals and feudals (rural Sind, Baluchistan, Southern Punjab, NWFP`s tribal areas........)
``More conspicuous in their absence were party workers.
The Punjab government had undoubtedly done its bit to disrupt the welcome, blocking buses coming in from Sindh and the rest of Punjab....Police arrested some protesters who did show for the return...Police even snatched cameras from newsmen.
But that only partly explains why Mr Zardari`s return was such a non-event for normal Lahoris....The answer, say some analysts, may lie in the shift that has taken place in the city`s political culture over the years....From a sleepy backwater in the mid-1990s, it has turned into one of the most vibrant urban economies in the country.
The two terms of former premier Nawaz Sharif - the only Lahori to have made it to the country`s top executive post not once but twice - have transformed the city....Its network of roads is by far the best in the country and public transport is far more efficient than in any other city.....Lahore has also turned into the hub of the country`s IT and media industry.
Thousands of idle young men who would sit up late at night discussing the merits of democracy until only a few years ago now return dog-tired from a hectic day at work....They would much rather tune in to cable TV than risk a confrontation with the police.....Especially when they are not clear what it is they are fighting for.
For most of them, such activity is now best left to those who support the ``mentors of Mullah Omar``.
If he needs a grand reception, Mr Zardari perhaps needs to explain what he has to offer that the Lahoris do not already have. `` (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4451823.stm)
Urban Pakistan, unlike rural/feudal Pakistan (which is still 2/3rd of Pakistan) is relatively dynamic politically. There was a time when PPP owned Punjab. Punjab was actually the only province where Bhutto won an all-out majority, in the early 70s election. He did not win an all-out majority even in Sind. And in East Pakistan, he won nothing.
However, now PML owns Punjab. Even in its broken form of six different parties, it won an all-out majority in Punjab. When it was united in the previous election, it won almost every seat.
Karachi used to be the center of Jamaat-i-Islami politics. However, MQM completely defeated it. And has been winning since then. There was a point where it could literally nominate a donkey and beat any maulvi of the Jamaat.
Urban NWFP used to be owned by Awami National Party. They were completely wiped out by the MMA maulvis in the last election, due to the ANP`s lack of opposition to the US bombing in Afghanistan. And the lack of economic progress under ANP.
Feudal politics, however, has remained the same. Which is why PPP and to some extent PML will always remain the top parties. 62% or so of the elected assembly has traditionally been feudal. And they are always the exact same people, or their kids - generation after generation. In many cases, the candidates of the two opposing parties are even related........
It would, however, be interesting to see what would happen if Lahore was taken away from the PML (and PPP) by some truly new middle class urban party. Currently, Karachi is the only city, whose voters have been able to achieve middle-class leadership (good or bad is a different story). Lahoris are still caught up in a feudal mindset..........
Ending feudalism is the biggest step to ending poverty. Invariably, the most backwards and poorest areas in Pakistan are the ones still run by tribals and feudals (rural Sind, Baluchistan, Southern Punjab, NWFP`s tribal areas........)
#36 Posted by cayenne on April 16, 2005 12:08:29 pm
Indian news channels(my favorite NDTV///www.ndtv.com), were showing Musharaf arriving at the Ajmer dargah and his motorcade leaving Palam Air Force base in New Delhi(all VIP flights arrive here), they were also showing Zardari being arrested on arrival in Lahore.BBC was also showing the arrest.And, the New Delhi Municipal Corp. has given Musharaf and his siblings` original birth certificates to Manmohan Singh to hand over to Musharaf.What the??...is Mush gonna apply for indian citizenship??.The Immigration dept. denied Adnan Sami indian citizenship.Will they do the same to Musharaf?.Anyways, the PM is hosting a dinner for Musharaf tonight and the who`s who of india have been invited, from Sonia Gandhi, Advani, business tycoons, actors, intellectuals and politicians.I hope Musharaf enjoys his trip.
#37 Posted by bbabu on April 16, 2005 6:42:06 pm
HisExcellency#30
`` 1. The % of people living below the poverty line increased from 26% in 1991 to 35% in 1999. ``
The aid to Pakistan due to Afghan jihad had stopped. The population kept growing.
`` 2. The starkest increase in povert was in rural areas where % of people below poverty line increased from 24% to 40%!
3. Rural poverty is highest (44%) in NWFP. ``
What are the incentives for a quasi-democratic regime to please the rural poor ? Especially when they are held hostage by the military.
`` 5. Although overall poverty level is 35%, the overall poverty level for females is 52%.``
With a exception of few thousand prostitutes every female is a part of the family. This tells me that families with more female members fare worse than the average.
`` 6. The average fee of a government school in Pakistan is Rs 1,675 per year. The average fee of a private school is Rs 4,477 per year. ``
2800 Pakistani rupees does not seem a high amount. If 50 dollars will command a semi-decent private school in India a lot of the poor would be elated.
`` 7. 65% of children in Balochistan and Sindh do not get basic immunization from diseases such as TB, tetnus, measles and polio each year ``
failure of basic government coupled with not enough NGO activity and stupid supersitions on the part of people
`` 1. The % of people living below the poverty line increased from 26% in 1991 to 35% in 1999. ``
The aid to Pakistan due to Afghan jihad had stopped. The population kept growing.
`` 2. The starkest increase in povert was in rural areas where % of people below poverty line increased from 24% to 40%!
3. Rural poverty is highest (44%) in NWFP. ``
What are the incentives for a quasi-democratic regime to please the rural poor ? Especially when they are held hostage by the military.
`` 5. Although overall poverty level is 35%, the overall poverty level for females is 52%.``
With a exception of few thousand prostitutes every female is a part of the family. This tells me that families with more female members fare worse than the average.
`` 6. The average fee of a government school in Pakistan is Rs 1,675 per year. The average fee of a private school is Rs 4,477 per year. ``
2800 Pakistani rupees does not seem a high amount. If 50 dollars will command a semi-decent private school in India a lot of the poor would be elated.
`` 7. 65% of children in Balochistan and Sindh do not get basic immunization from diseases such as TB, tetnus, measles and polio each year ``
failure of basic government coupled with not enough NGO activity and stupid supersitions on the part of people
#38 Posted by arjun_m on April 16, 2005 6:57:03 pm
#37 by bbabu on April 16, 2005 6:42pm PT
school fees in bombay are Rs 5/month for the 5th standard students, Rs 6/month for the 6th standard students etc etc...and these aren`t municipal schools...it`s every school that gets the government subsidy...convents and all....
So Indian students don`t pay more than 120Rs/year....at least the ones in bombay...
school fees in bombay are Rs 5/month for the 5th standard students, Rs 6/month for the 6th standard students etc etc...and these aren`t municipal schools...it`s every school that gets the government subsidy...convents and all....
So Indian students don`t pay more than 120Rs/year....at least the ones in bombay...
#39 Posted by HisExcellency on April 16, 2005 11:19:06 pm
re: bbabu
``What are the incentives for a quasi-democratic regime to please the rural poor ? Especially when they are held hostage by the military``
If your ``military-hold-civilian-govt-hostage`` theory was right, then a quasi-democratic regime would have an enormous incentive to please the rural poor in NWFP and Punjab. It is a known fact that rural voters have a higher turnout in Pakistan than urban voters. A quasi-democratic govt with a two-thirds majority would cut down the military to size and be immune to palace intrigues, etc.
If the governments in Pakistan in 1990s were quasi-democratic, it was only because the politicians in those govt were undemocratic and fascist in nature. Military did not hold these govts hostage by any measure. These irresponsible politicians are now blaming their failures on the military.
``What are the incentives for a quasi-democratic regime to please the rural poor ? Especially when they are held hostage by the military``
If your ``military-hold-civilian-govt-hostage`` theory was right, then a quasi-democratic regime would have an enormous incentive to please the rural poor in NWFP and Punjab. It is a known fact that rural voters have a higher turnout in Pakistan than urban voters. A quasi-democratic govt with a two-thirds majority would cut down the military to size and be immune to palace intrigues, etc.
If the governments in Pakistan in 1990s were quasi-democratic, it was only because the politicians in those govt were undemocratic and fascist in nature. Military did not hold these govts hostage by any measure. These irresponsible politicians are now blaming their failures on the military.
#40 Posted by bbabu on April 17, 2005 2:45:21 pm
HisExcellency #39
`` If your ``military-hold-civilian-govt-hostage`` theory was right, then a quasi-democratic regime would have an enormous incentive to please the rural poor in NWFP and Punjab. It is a known fact that rural voters have a higher turnout in Pakistan than urban voters. A quasi-democratic govt with a two-thirds majority would cut down the military to size and be immune to palace intrigues, etc.
If the governments in Pakistan in 1990s were quasi-democratic, it was only because the politicians in those govt were undemocratic and fascist in nature. Military did not hold these govts hostage by any measure. These irresponsible politicians are now blaming their failures on the military. ``
Since when does the NWFP count in Pakistani politics ?
What makes you think the poor rural voter in Punjab and Sind is going to vote against the wishes of the powerful rural interests ?
Other than the authority to use force the fundamental ability of any government is the ability to spend money as they please. You would not be suggesting that Nawaz Sharif or Benazir Bhutto could slash military expenditures.
If Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif governments were democratic why were they not allowed to complete their five year terms in office. It happened four times within a decade.
If you have a Westminister system of parlimentary democracy you allow the government to complete their five year term unless they loose a majority.
Nawaz Sharif was a creation of the military establishment in the 1980s. Benazir Bhutto owes her following to her father who was Ayub Khan`s protege in the 1960s. It is not like they came out of the blue.
`` If your ``military-hold-civilian-govt-hostage`` theory was right, then a quasi-democratic regime would have an enormous incentive to please the rural poor in NWFP and Punjab. It is a known fact that rural voters have a higher turnout in Pakistan than urban voters. A quasi-democratic govt with a two-thirds majority would cut down the military to size and be immune to palace intrigues, etc.
If the governments in Pakistan in 1990s were quasi-democratic, it was only because the politicians in those govt were undemocratic and fascist in nature. Military did not hold these govts hostage by any measure. These irresponsible politicians are now blaming their failures on the military. ``
Since when does the NWFP count in Pakistani politics ?
What makes you think the poor rural voter in Punjab and Sind is going to vote against the wishes of the powerful rural interests ?
Other than the authority to use force the fundamental ability of any government is the ability to spend money as they please. You would not be suggesting that Nawaz Sharif or Benazir Bhutto could slash military expenditures.
If Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif governments were democratic why were they not allowed to complete their five year terms in office. It happened four times within a decade.
If you have a Westminister system of parlimentary democracy you allow the government to complete their five year term unless they loose a majority.
Nawaz Sharif was a creation of the military establishment in the 1980s. Benazir Bhutto owes her following to her father who was Ayub Khan`s protege in the 1960s. It is not like they came out of the blue.
#41 Posted by jay on April 17, 2005 8:16:30 pm
Romair 35
``Ending feudalism is the biggest step to ending poverty. Invariably, the most backwards and poorest areas in Pakistan are the ones still run by tribals and feudals (rural Sind, Baluchistan, Southern Punjab, NWFP`s tribal areas........)``
Romair is an educated pakistani and see his logic. poor are in rural areas, rural areas are dominated by feudals, hence feudals are the proble.
All over the world rural people are relatively poor, even in kerala where there is no feudalism, rural income is lower than urban income, simply because of the nature of the job.
The importance of romair is that he is an srchetypal pakistani, educated from the military and all that he has is a mind set dominated by TNT. For every thing, the ere is an ``other`` to be blamed and possibly killed.
Each of the educated posters of pakistan are an affirmation and a re-statement of the hopelessness of pakistan.
``Ending feudalism is the biggest step to ending poverty. Invariably, the most backwards and poorest areas in Pakistan are the ones still run by tribals and feudals (rural Sind, Baluchistan, Southern Punjab, NWFP`s tribal areas........)``
Romair is an educated pakistani and see his logic. poor are in rural areas, rural areas are dominated by feudals, hence feudals are the proble.
All over the world rural people are relatively poor, even in kerala where there is no feudalism, rural income is lower than urban income, simply because of the nature of the job.
The importance of romair is that he is an srchetypal pakistani, educated from the military and all that he has is a mind set dominated by TNT. For every thing, the ere is an ``other`` to be blamed and possibly killed.
Each of the educated posters of pakistan are an affirmation and a re-statement of the hopelessness of pakistan.
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