Iranian Puzzle

Re: # 25

``I am some times amazed when India is spoken about as a giant economic power along with China...well I am still watching advertisements in Australian and US televisions appealing for donations for Indian children - a country that cannot even support its own citizens and lives on donations from other countries should not be labeled as a super power``

India has a very big GNP which will continue to grow and by 2050 will be the second largest in the world. But that doesn`t mean much. This increase is due to massive population. GNP/capita is a better way of looking at the purchasing power of a person, which will still be lower than the developed world.

Also, as the economy is growing the wealth is not being distributed equally. If a few are becoming millionaires thousands still are in poverty. Not all the people are going to become rich at the same time. The more prepared ones will become rich faster than the less prepared ones.

Regarding super-power, having a good economy is not going to make a country a super-power. A lot of things need to take place. India should just concentrate on getting the economic security right now while maintinaing the defence expenditure at 2-3 % GNP.

``Some one commented China is no match to USA or Europe, let me inform that Chinese banks have now stop providing any more credit to USA, as they already owe more than 3 trillion dollars. EU at the moment is seriously discussing how to face Chinese dominance in manufacturing sector for the existing rules does not allow them to enforce higher duties on Chinese products; yes, we may see sooner or later new clauses added from the platform of WTO protecting EU and others from China, could it be in the name of saving employments of local countrymen? Time will tell. ``

One major factor is the manipulation of currency that Chinese are relying on. The current rate of $1=8 yuans, which is ~30% lower than the market directed ones. us is pressing them to make yuan float. Once it is done (which is not going to happen in neat future) the price of chinese goods will rise and they won`t be as competitive as now.

#27

Also Iran makes pennies for its gas compared to Qatar, gets d*cked around by Russia, Turkey and even Armenia on the price for its gas.

It aint easy living in the world, if you ain`t no friend of Uncle Sam`s :-)

as the old saying goes ``pani mein rehkar, magarmach se bair nahin karte``

first line should read:

Iran is as desperate to build the pipeline as is India, here`s why:

#27

Iran is as desperate to build the pipeline was is India, here`s why:

The worlds largest gas field is the North Field/South Pars (greater than 1000 TCF) shared between Qatar and Iran. Qatar has been well placed in the global shift to gaeous fuels and due to its alliance with the US has attracted massive investment in its gas resources, by the last count $25 billion has poured into Qatar to build huge LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) plants (RasGas, QatarGs) and GTL (Gas to Liquids) (Shell, Cevron, Exxon ...) plants. With cheap power being avaialble there is even talk of relocating power intensive industries like aluminium, electric furnace steel mills to Qatar. Qatar is even planning the next step to capitalize on its gas wealth, part of which is building Qatar airways into an Emirates style airline. Note the massive A350 order in Paris.

There is little doubt Qatar in the next decade will leave Kuwait looking like a subcontinental city :-)

On the other side of the Gulf, Iran is still struggling to develop the South Pars field, leading players are LG of Korea, Eni of Italy, Shell and Total of France. Till date there is no LNG facility on the Iranian side. This is in a world where not just Qatar but coutries like Egypt and Australia are investing massively in LNG facilities and tying up long term contracts with Korea, Japan Italy and US.

Iran still remains a much poorer country (relative to its gulf neighbours) with a sluggish state dominated economy critically dependent on support from its oil wealth. It has a large youth population and unemployment is high. Now the new president is promising an even larger expansion in social programs.
In other words what may be a luxury for Qatar is much needed money in Iran.

In such a situation India is Iran`s shining hope, a huge almost insatiable market, creditworthy customers and no small nation that can be pushed around by the US.

If you are following the news you will probably realize how India has an even stronger hand to play now.

I wonder is next leader saying anything about Iran-Pakistan-India Gas line. I think being hardliner he may not like to provide has to India which is full of nonbelievers, most Iranians think India is full full bunch of Hindues. It is possible he may just extend pipe to Pakistan. It is bad as without gas India can not progress and can lead to strife due to lack of fuel and gas as a feed stock for fertilizers and power plants. It is possible America may not allow the gas line to pakistan also. I think pakistan should use all gas it get to produce fertilizers, ammonia, urea and power and sell power starved India with value added products only like power from electric lines. I hope may its better not to have pipeline at this time as benefit is $600Millions per year. There will be big cost of safegarding from terrorists also USA may cut same amount it gives per year as aid. The advantage of American aid is we do not need to provide extra security. Also its not worth for our country to have bad strain in relationships. There is Ironic asymmetry in perception of two brotherly muslim brother countries about USA. Iran govt is against USA but people of IRAN like USA while Pakistan Govt and general is most strong supporter og USA while people are anti american.
Hope writer will write about effect on pipeline.

sifzal,

I think that one can just as easily understate the progress India has made. Realistically, it is on track to becoming a Taiwan or Korea, and that`s damn good. It took some, say, 10 or so years for these countries to realize the transition from 3rd world to developed.

India has a huge population, and much of it is under the poverty line by Indian standards...much more so by Western standards. That, though, is changing for the better...and rapidly so. It`s this change and sustaining it that is important.

Relative to developed nations, China is nominally better and it`s progress much less transparent.

Both India and China share the same challenge...development with a huge population. Future stability in both countries, just like in smaller countries like Iran, depend on how well wealth and opportunity is distributed amongst the masses. A sustained base of people under the poverty line will probably translate to political instability in the long run.

As for the American debt to the Chinese...can the Chinese afford to have a bankrupt America? Who is the primary client of their industry? Without balance in trade, everyone will suffer. So we shouldn`t view the outsourcing boom in India, and the manufacturing boom in China as evidence of a potential dominating force in either of these two nations. Both nations are heavily dependent on the same market for their revenue. I am uncertain that imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, or imposing laws that limit outsourcing, will adversely affect the American/European economy as it would the Indian and Chinese ones.

I am some times amazed when India is spoken about as a giant economic power along with China...well I am still watching advertisements in Australian and US televisions appealing for donations for Indian children - a country that cannot even support its own citizens and lives on donations from other countries should not be labeled as a super power...so please wait till its over 250 million people comes out of poverty line and at least have access to drinking water fit for human consumption. Having said that, yes one must also appreciate that finally the foreighn investment from US and the West is being properly utilized, and India is on the path of recovery - towards stability is still a long road which can be achieved if it keep on getting leaders such as it has at the present times.

Some one commented China is no match to USA or Europe, let me inform that Chinese banks have now stop providing any more credit to USA, as they already owe more than 3 trillion dollars. EU at the moment is seriously discussing how to face Chinese dominance in manufacturing sector for the existing rules does not allow them to enforce higher duties on Chinese products; yes, we may see sooner or later new clauses added from the platform of WTO protecting EU and others from China, could it be in the name of saving employments of local countrymen? Time will tell.

I remember reading Times and Newsweek in late 70s those claimed that soon Iranians would be eating leaves after the Iraqi war and looking to West for support with Ayatollah Kohmeni in command. Well visit Iran today and certainly Iranians have made these reputed journals embarrassed on their forecasting. so Well done Iran!

Charlie,

Europe and America shall remain dominant, with perhaps power shifting between the two, for some time to come. Militarily, and in terms of innovation, China and India simply do not compare.

This will change, but more along the lines of Chinese and Indian citizens playing second fiddle to European and American interests. Indian and Chinese growth is predicated on foreign funding, so it seems odd that this should be taken as a sign of advancing past these foreigners.

Military and economic dominance of Europe and America will continue unless China or India manages to rework the established ``world order`` to their advantage. Realistically, that means outgunning, outthinking and out producing Europe and America as a rival, not as a dependant partner.

I think the Chinese and Indian policies hinge on growth, not on fantasies of becoming global powers. In any case, talk of Chinese or Indian challenge to Europe or America is most premature.

``Thats true. I don`t think turkey and algeria are democratic. In turkey the u.s. aid-dependent army ensures that the gov doesn`t fall into extremist hands.``

No, the army protects the constitution against any and all ideological threats. Extremism, as their opposition to Erdogan suggests, has nothing to do with it although it makes a nice tune to play when queries by donor nations.

I believe no western state would behave differently if there were credible threats against it. France, for example, strikes me as a nation that would not shy from vetting candidates and reserving the right to even ban parties that hold platforms contrary to the secular principles of the state.

``In algeria the elections were cancelled because it seemed that the islamist would win.
I would have preferred islamic gov in both countries if the people want it.``

It certainly would have prevented a civil war, and have strangled the formation of the GIA.

But the point is, academic definitions of democracy can hardly do...

Haroon Siddiqui is a very good journalist. He has the knowledge of Farid Zakaria, without the Uncle Tom aspect. Haroon tells it like it is.............

I have pretty high hopes for Iran. If there is one large country in the Muslim world that has a shot at organically growing into a success, it is Iran. Everyone from the athiest Tariq Ali to the maulvis think so.........It is currently ranked well ahead of India and Pakistan, on the HDI...........

Iran has always been the center of culture. Even during the Mughal days, all the culture primarily came from Persia. It has a long and proud history. It is quite homogenous. And it has had an organic revolution, which threw out the Shah. It is now slowly moving towards the center. And it has regular elections.......

Bill Clinto said he had publicly apologized to Khatami about the US removal of Musaaddiq, which brought in the Shah. And he stated that Iran was the only country in the world, where the more liberal side had won three straight elections. The guy knows what he is talking about..........

I interview Irani software engineers regularly. And they are all - male and female - quite good. Iran is scientifically, according to MIT, ahead of Pakistan. It makes the best movies in Asia. And it has one of the highest female literacy rates in the Islamic world.

Most of all, it has oil. Basically, it is the one country in the world, which has oil and brains. It will slowly settle down, and the mullahs will be watered down. Unless of course, the USA keeps threatening it. I really doubt the USA will attack Iran.

The current Iraqi govt. is very pro-Iran. It consists of parties, which sought refuge in Iran, during Saddam`s rule. The most powerful man in Iraq, Sistani, is an Irani citizen. It is going to be interesting to see what happens in the nuclear area. The USA is not going to attack. But I have a feeling Israel may launch a strike, like it did on Iraq in 1982.......

I think the anti-mullah brigade on this site is too extremist. They need to put more balance into their views. The most dangerous mullahs - both to the world and to the USA - currently sit in the Republican party, and the Religious Right...........Irani mullahs are generally harmless, outside Iran.........

Re: # 18

Sorry guys, I have to respond to netizen and now I am totally offtopic.

About Dark ages, I meant Europe is on its way to it. I find no progressive thought left here. Only, their infrastructure developed when they had captured most of the parts of the world is helping them continue living respectably. The problems they are going to ace in near future have started to show up.
I agree that at the moment, Pakistanis, Indians and Bengalis or Chinese as individuals can`t compare with a european. But when it comes to national strength, China is stronger than any european country. India is equal if not stronger than them. The way, these two countries are emerging, I have no doubt that Europe is nothing in front of these two.

US have realized that it can`t keep the first spot for much longer time. With their growth rate, Chinese economy is going to be the biggest economy in the world within a decade. India is almost equal to the size of Japanese economy and now is going to be the third economy in the world. With the growth rate as that of India, economy of US + India will always remain larger than chinese economy. So for Americans, India is a suitable ally to save the system on which US infrastructure is based. Indians never feel it difficult to adopt them withj changing time (that`s what I declared submission), so they have adopted well in this situation.

We need to realize the value of human resources. Human resources if developed well are the biggest asset of a nation. Specially in 21st century, it will make or break he nations. Europeans have not enough human resources. Their baby boom generation is old enough. New generation is not willing to produce more people. They are afraid of skilled migrants entering Europe. They are afraid of opening themselves in front of the world. India and China have already a lot of human resources and they have positively started exploiting these resources.

Chinese are bringing back the tradition of knowledge to their country from west. India doing the same but a bit slowly. Culture of knowledge is being cultivated in the land. Amount of new knowledge (research work) coming out of the region is enormous. Quality is not good although improving with the passage of time. If they achieve the same quality, imagine that the driving force of knowledge will be this region. And in my opinion, tradition of knowledge is what makes a country leader in the world. All that makes me believe that this century belongs to our region, India and china being the major players.

I am sometimes afraid of these chinese. Their ``remaining low and advancing silently`` makes me worried. While west has some set of ethical value in the name of democracy, freedom etc (althouygh being misused now), nobody knows what these chinese are upto. The brutal way they have started capturing world markets, will they be same if they starting colonizing?

I have great respect for Iran as a nation today and for the massive contribution the Persians have made to Islamic civilisation (indeed an argument can be made that after the first century or two, Islamic civilisation is almost synonymous with Persian--the list of great scholars and awliya who have been Persian is too long to even mention: from Imam Abu Hanifa to Imam Ghazzali, from Shaykh Abd al Qadir al Jilani to Hafez and Sa`di and Rumi and Jami...even Khwaja Gharib Nawaz was Persian!) and they have shown again why they are a proud, independent nation. I think their system of modified democracy is perfect for an Islamic country: the leader is elected by the people but those who would make laws against Islam are vetted. Perfect. Within that you have a lot of flexibility.

The shameful editorials of all the Western media, left and right wing, is just that: shameful. The Iranians had free and fair elections and the `wrong` candidate (for the Americans) won. Tough luck. Actually, the Americans have been trying to get a public uprising or coup in Iran for the past few years using clandestine means and their Iranian puppets in the US and Iran (eg setting up propaganda TV and radio stations) but the Iranian people have shown why so much of Islamic history and civilisation is stamped with their mark, once more.

Gar dar khaneh kas ast, yek harf bas ast!

Iran Paindabad!
Marg bar dushmanan e Iran va Islam!

Interesting article:

Iran: the living fossils’ vengeance

Re: # 12

``Europe is already its way down to dark ages. US might take a century or more for that. China rising at the top, India rising to the second, it will be interesting to see how world looks like after 150 years.``

Dark ages???? What makes you make such a statement. If Europe is in dark ages where does asia, eastern europe, me, africa lie.
Europe has been eclipsed by u.s. but in no manner it is in dark ages. If it was possible even india/pak/bd would have apploed for eu just like the turks.

US will come back to its ``natural`` share of wealth and power and will cease to be the sole superpower but that doesn`t mean its will become an impotent state. It will still be a powerful country.
Also, by your logic even China and India after another 2-3 centuries will go down and into dark ages.


``While India has chosen the easy way of submission to west, as they have been doing since centuries, China has some policy of their own.``
Submission to the west? India had its own policy which to a large extent was ineffectual and misguided but not along Western lines. was aligned more towards Soviets not the west. Chinese are not fools. the only policy they have is ``lie low and continue to grow economically and militarily``.

Urstruly:
i have happened to talk to a few iranian students and they all unequivocally condemned Iranian political system. This is ofcourse strictly an anecdotal input But does point out that the usual signs of a deep fissure between the mullahs and the irani new generation are not very off the mark.
I hope,whenever the Revolution character will have to proceed to meet Khomeni in Barzakh, that instance would come without Paki-grade plutonium polluting the air.

Re: # 15


``The culling of a candidate list is not unique to Iran, and is often enthusiastically approved of by Western nations (the US in particular). Elections in Turkey and Algeria are closely guided by their military, which serve a similar function to Iran`s Guardian council. ``

Thats true. I don`t think turkey and algeria are democratic. In turkey the u.s. aid-dependent army ensures that the gov doesn`t fall into extremist hands. In algeria the elections were cancelled because it seemed that the islamist would win.
I would have preferred islamic gov in both countries if the people want it.