Bye Bye NAM, Hello Realpolitik!

re: arjun #321

5. SJB`s analyses ignore the most likely reasons for low FDI in Pakistan...

a) Political instability because of PPP-PML confrontation & frequent dismissals of government
b) Rampant corruption and lack of transparency in privatization process
c) Ailing banking sector due to loan defaults and writeoffs
d) Lack of proper arbitration framework for disputes

Because of factor (c), domestic investors were unable to borrow money and invest. Foreign investors usually take their cue from domestic investors. This led to a chicken-and-egg problem.

Despite this, FDI poured into Pakistan`s energy sector in 1994/95. But this process was marred by political corruption, and lack of transparency. Independent power producers (IPPs) paid kickbacks to Nawaz Sharif in order to win contracts... then Nawaz was replaced with Benazir... they had to pay kickbacks again... Then BB left and Nawaz came back and demanded more kickbacks... Nawaz threatened to cancel contracts... IPPs couldn`t arbitrate the case through courts so some decided to pack up and leave.

re: #321 by arjun_m

3. Foreign investors could not have shyed away for security concerns, simply because they didn`t know about these concerns... that is, until the 1998 nuclear tests. Media in US and UK was too engrossed with Iraq, breakup of USSR, ASEAN and NAFTA to worry about the Kashmir LIC thousands of miles away. The media only took notice of Kashmir when the nuclear genie was let out of the bottle.

4. SJB argues that Pakistani economy suffered because of high military spending. This is a rash conclusion. Firstly, military spending decreased from 1980s levels during the 90s. Secondly, a country like Pakistan can develop defense industry as a source of exports. This is exactly what Pakistan gained. Now Pakistan is selling trainer jets to Oman, short-range missiles to UAE... Far from being a drain on national resources, the defense industry is gradually becoming a revenue generator for Pakistan.

re: #321 by arjun_m

Most analyses by Shahid Burki are brilliant; alas this is not one of them. I had attacked this theory in an article that was published by Dawn newspaper a few years ago. I will just summarize my counterargument briefly here:

1. SJB`s theory is based on counterfactual analyses, instead of established cause-effect analyses. Instead of starting with facts and then concluding an effect from these causes, he is starting with an effect and then selectively retrofitting causes to describe that effect. In English, we call these conspiracy theories.

2. SJB`s inferences are weak. Risk of war can certainly jeopardise foreign direct investment (FDI). But the Kashmir Jihad was a low intensity conflict (LIC) that remained well below the threshold of war until Kargil (1999). There are no convincing studies/data to support a causal-relationship between LIC and low FDI.

(continued)

Re: # 323

Dear Netizen:

The truth is that your scenario does not apply to any of us on this chowk. Personally, I do not represent Pakistan or any other country in this world. Heck, I don`t even represent my own city where I live in.

As a servant of humanity, I am equally dismayed at what happened. I extended my deepest condolences to everyone on this chowk. I would be disappointed if you create other conversations out of this.

Respectfully submitted,

Re: # 332

``I am sure NATO forces are landing in POK for this purpose. ``

i don`t think nato is interested in india-specfic action. may be china why should them care about india?

Dost-Mittar:

I just came back from a trip to the USA and wanted to post a few posts to this board, but I think now it is too late. The board has moved in another direction.

As regards your question where I was, I was transferred to Australia, USA and now to Canada (I recall that you live here also). I expect to be here for 6-24 months depending on when my employer decides to send me back to the greener pastures of the USA or not (Admittedly, I am enjoying Canada from travel point of view, but not from professional point of view. It is too laid back).

I hope you and your wife still remember your trip to Pakistan. I don`t recall whether you were able to go as far north as the calamity struck Kohistan or not.

re:#321 by arjun_m
Do u think people who willingly blow themselves up for a cause would be deterred by the economics of jehad?
I am getting convinced that the only way might be to pay back in the same coin ie India should raise a people`s jehadi force, train them and infiltrate them into Pak in large numbers and cause mayheim. If they kill one, kill 100. Only a diamond cuts a diamond. This may be the only way left now.
As the hindi proverb goes ``laton key bhoot batoon sey nahin mantein``
Sridhar

re:#323 by Netizen
Pak has not dismantled jehadi apparatus after repeatedly being asked to do so by the world community. It is time somebody else does this. I am sure NATO forces are landing in POK for this purpose. Surely, they are not there to play poker.
Sridhar

Re: # 329

o.k. osama is not as popular in pak today as he was in 2001, except in pashtunistan.

what do you say if pak military enforces the deal on its people.

Re: # 273

``I do not like to say this because it sounds cold to threaten innocent people, but India and even the rest of the non-muslim world is at its wits ends on how to deal with this nuisance.``

Make more nuclear bombs to do the same.

Re: # 328

..... i think you have a warped view of pakistan like most indians .......... the only person you cannot bad mouth in pakistan is shahrukh khan and the the prophet and his camel club buddies - other than that, every one seems to be fair game, including musharraf ...........

Re: # 326

hamidm:

``try saying that pakistan should give up on kashmir in a public place in pakistan - you will get a sound beating and sent off to bed without any pudding !.``

pak doesn`t have a leader who will ask the people to accept the reality. atleast the army has some gun/muscle power to make a stand and abide by it, people will soon follow. I am very sure one would get the same beating treatment if osama is bad-mouthed but that didn`t keep the military from abondoning him in favor of u.s.

Ref hindvi #286

[Ranger
I am ashamed to say this but i found better treatment in the US and UK than I found in my native land, i wasnt judged by the sound of my name.]

You should be delighted that post 9-11 that is no longer the case. Now a name like Mohammad is a red flag AROUND the world!

Keep it up guys. We shall soon have you lowering your pants to check your religion.

Re: # 322

raw-dust,

............ what is your point ? ...... it is myth that the army alone is the only party in pakistan that wants to keep the kashmir issue alive and has managed to do it all by itself ...............you give the army too much credit - after all they are drawn from the same confused gene pool ! ............... like the horrible hindoos on the wrong side of the border, a significant majority of pakistanis are also quite passionate about the issue ....... when it comes to raw and putrid nationalism, they are no different from the serbs, the germans, the indians or the americans - it is a disgusting but primeval instinct ...............try saying that pakistan should give up on kashmir in a public place in pakistan - you will get a sound beating and sent off to bed without any pudding !............... please note that i am not making any value judgements about whether it is right or wrong - just stating the facts .........

Hindvi:

I just read a jihadi group took responsibility for the delhi balsts. what do you say now. Yesterday you were blaming some groups (read rss/bjp) for creating ``social turmoil``. you even went further saying that this time the culprits (read rss/bjp) will be hounded as ``modi is not an emperor`` (whatever it meant).

people like you (educated indian muslims) also have contributed immensely to the ghetto mentality of muslims in india. instead of asking the muslims to break from the mullahism (like imrana case, sharia laws as alternate to judicial systems) you support conspiracy theories (like moscow bombings, godhra burnings). anyway, how is promotion of urdu going to help an average muslim youth? is it going to be easy for it to get a job at WIPRO becausae of urdu fluency?

let me give you/your community one suggestion: in a madrassa, instead of teaching them what a tribal did in 7th century arabia teach them what newton/galileo did. may be that would help them to think big in future.

Re: # 276

Hisexcellency:

All we ask from Pak is that it dismantle the jihadi network and stop supporting them. Once it does that we will take care of the remaining jihadis.

Paks support to jihadis is no secret. mushy himself was threatening to start the jihadi ``tap`` if indian forces are not withdrawn from the border areas.

the situation in J&K, with indian forces on the border, is far better than what it would been without them.

we know that pak has no intention to stop the jihadis hence these ``condolences`` are meaningless and are not taken seriously. Its like bush calling invasion of iraq as ``operation iraqi freedom``.