The Trial of a Nation

#56 by AlephNull on December 1, 2005 3:54pm PT

That`s waaay over HP`s head...perhaps you can post something more basic..like a nuclear reactions for dummies...just for HP...

iron_mask #51

Re uranium vs plutonium as bomb-making material – U-235 has a much larger critical mass than Pu-239 (nominally 15-25 kg for U-235, vs 5-8 kg for Pu-239). In partial compensation, uranium is about a third denser than plutonium; nevertheless the fissile core of an uranium bomb would need to be larger. This in turn means a proportionally bulkier and heavier set of explosive lenses for an implosion device (by far the preferred scheme for an efficient use of that ultra-expensive fissile material) and thus a larger and heavier overall package.

A light compact device is always preferable. Weight matters a great deal for a device that rides atop a ballistic misile, since it crucially affects range; bulk also matters beyond a point. A bomb carried on a strike aircraft should preferably not be inordinately heavy; also these things are typically carried externally on pylons, and a larger package would be draggier, to the detriment of range. Similar considerations (both bulk and heft) apply to a cruise missile. Hence the preferability of plutonium for the core of a fission device.

The most well-known drawback of plutonium is that it can’t be used in a gun-type device (because of predetonation problems caused by the presence of the non-fissile nuisance isotope Pu-240). It needs the very precisely timed initiation of an implosion device. But in any case implosion devices are preferred for both U and Pu because they give more bang for the fissile material buck.

The other major consideration is the ease of producing the fissile material. Plutonium could be created in a research reactor; the key reprocessing steps are basically chemistry with radiological safeguards. Uranium enrichment on the other hand is a physical process (gaseous diffusion or ultracentrifuges) – long drawn-out, a massive electricity hog, prone to mechanical breakdowns, leaks of an unpleasant toxic corrosive gas, etc. So plutonium is once again the preferred route for a country that desires a basic deterrent rather than full-spectrum capability or a substantial nuclear power program.

Re: # 56
So basically it boils down to these points

(a) you need great quantities of fissile material for an Uranium based bomb
(b) Uranium based devices are heavier - and the hence the untipped ranges of the Ghori,
Haft, Ghaznavi missiles found in the test would not be that useful unless tipped with Pu
bombs
(c) processing U-235 and its isotopes is environmentally more unfriendly and economically
more expensive that Pu Isotopes
(d) what you are suggesting indicates that if someone was processing Uranium Isotopes
they would be leaving fairly ugly finger and foot prints all over the place and are easily
detectable - unless the whole process in encased in a sealed lead container.

Which begs the question: Why were the likes of Libya Iran and others interested in these ugly processing machines! (including pakistan - maybe they are just a bit clever and are not using it in reality but processing Pu!)

maulana urstruly..take a look..allah`s chosen people(allah`s jews, if you will) are clutching at straws in their futile attempts to get Indian Kashmir...didn`t you pakis tell us that post 9/11, Pakiland had Uncle Sam`s wind in their sails and it was just a matter of time before the US leaned on India to hand over Indian Kashmir?

Now you know why AQK is in the doghouse..the US doesn`t need to win the hearts and minds of 150 million pakis when it has Pakiland`s military rules by the you-know-what...

President seeks US Kashmir support

The delegation expressed support for the peace process between Pakistan and India to resolve all outstanding issues between the two countries, including the early settlement of Jammu and Kashmir dispute. The President stressed on the need for the United States to lend its support to the efforts aimed at resolving the Jammu & Kashmir dispute which is at the root of tension in South Asia. He underscored the importance of moving towards a settlement of the Kashmir dispute in the interest of durable peace and stability in the region.

#32 by godot on December 1, 2005 11:54am PT


5. Why does Iran need nuclear energy when it has more oil to meet its needs than it can possibly use.


Not that I think the mullahs should get nukes, but this might be of interest..

Are Iran`s Arguments Sound?

2.1. Iran Needs Nuclear Energy

2.1.1, Nuclear Energy for an Oil-Rich Country

The first is that Iran has vast oil and gas resources and therefore does not
need nuclear energy. Although it is true that Iran is rich in oil and gas, these
resources are finite and, given the pace of Iran`s economic development, they
will be depleted within two to five decades. With a territory of 1,648,000 km2
and a population of about 70 million, projected to be more than 105 million
in 2050, Iran has no choice but to seek access to more diversified and secure
sources of energy. Availability of electricity to 46,000 villages now, compared
to 4400 twenty five years ago, just as an example, demonstrates the fast growing
demand for more energy. And the youthfulness of the Iranian population, with
around 70% under 30, doesn`t allow complacency when it comes to energy policy.
To satisfy such growing demands, Iran can`t rely exclusively on fossil energy.
Since Iranian national economy is still dependent on oil revenue, it can`t allow
the ever increasing domestic demand affect the oil revenues from the oil export.

#38 by Urstruly on December 1, 2005 1:06pm PT


I don`t know about you but as a Muslim this is my guiding principle; and so it is for millions of Pakistanis who consider Dr. Qadeer their hero.


Sorry...Capt Clueless, among others, has told us the current government of Pakiland is democratically elected...and putting AQK in the paki doghouse is the action of the democratically elected paki government...so it`s safe to assume that paki think AQK belongs in prison/house arrest..



As far as the allegation of Dr selling nuclear secrets to other countries is concerned, I don`t think it is humanly possible, unless government is involved in it. Dr. is one of the most important and prized personalities in the history of Pakistan and a considerable amount of human and capital resources are spent to protect him. I don`t think GOP can play innocent here that Dr ``sold` secrets without its knowledge. These coward dictators are only saving their own skins and in the mean time they are insulting Pakistani nation because their masters demand it.


The US probably didn`t even have to threaten to bomb Pakiland to the stone age like it did after 9/11...Bilal Musharraf`s green card was probably enough to get AQK in the paki doghouse..



Though I refuse to accept it as a crime just because neo-colonial powers say so.


What the people of detriot think has no relevance..The fact remains, AQK is on the paki doghouse..we all know what debriefing means, right? He`s in a prison with the boys from Langley stripping him down to his briefs..

Speaking of YOUR technical knowledge, that`s already been exposed when you made an idiot of yourself with the whole IFF super-duper secret frequency thing....

Raw_Dust

For the sake of Pakistani state - as it exists - some things are better left unsaid, until and unless Pakistanis themselves decide to come clean about them.

It seems undeniable, though, that Mr. Khan made his services available zealously and extensively, to all those who may have been running the operations. An unbecoming and unwise move for a scientist and national hero of his stature.

#41 by AlephNull on December 1, 2005 1:24pm PT
“Reality check: is there any convincing evidence in the public domain that would indicate that Pakistan succeeded in enriching uranium at an industrial scale (i.e. equivalent to tens of kilograms of HEU per year)? Why should one not suspect that the alleged enrichment plant at Kahuta is a Potemkin village?”

Well the reality check is that no one could have stolen anything in a sixteen days stay in a nuke lab that even under lax security environment would be secured enough to not let a foreign face in the secured areas without some clearance. In most of the places, even in the 70s, security clearance would take more than three weeks.

I know a-dull is stupid but a question like that can only be asked from a person who has top security clearance in Pakistani establishment. I hope Indians have this information in public domain and if they do can someone print the URL to info from some official Indian government site. I would really appreciate that if nothing else, just to get an understanding of the process Indians used.

Re: # 49 actually, if you used your contacts in the DT, HP you could do a number of things. Like for example when and how the uranium was obtained in the first instance? How much of it was obtained in raw ore form, and how much was obtained for researh purposes in refined form from outside. These must surely be obtainable for a person of your reach. Once done, run the maths and see if the gas centrifuges in Kahuta are really required for the work or just like great big machines for turning out a couple of pegs!. Then the village issue is soved, and AlephNull can be answered without much ceremony.

#39 by AlephNull

“but Munir Ahmed Khan and other PAEC honchos were present at the meeting under the shamiana in Multan. Bhutto’s threat to have Pakistanis eat grass if necessary to acquire a bomb if India did, was made in the sixties.

Munir Ahmed Khan and company made the technically sensibly choice of going down the plutonium route – uranium enrichment is technically more difficult and uranium is in most respects inferior as a bomb-making material.”

I have read this account and fell off my chair laughing at the writer (not a-dull). This was a piece that appeared somewhere claiming that Munir Khan actually was the Baba of the bomb in Pakistan. Munir Khan was the Chairman of the PAEC and there is no doubt about it but he was only in charge of Karachi Nuclear plant.

Bhutto never had a meeting in 1972 about the nuke bomb. If he was going to have that meeting it was not going to be under a Shamiana (open large tent) in pretty much full public view. Bhutto had this love affair with town hall type meetings under the shamianas. But he was not stupid to have a meeting about developing Nuke bombs under a shamiana and in full public view.

In fact, Munir Khan never had any thing to do with bomb it was always an army project and only AQKhan was in it. Bhutto did approve of him and brought him back but Bhutto never got a chance to actually manage the nuke development as he was disposed off in July 77 and from the early 77 Pakistan was already in a political turmoil due to elections etc.

Bhutto did say that thing about eating grass but it was right after the Indian nuke test in 1974 and not in the sixties. He never talked about nukes in sixties nor did he ever bring that up in his election campaign.

That writer was trying to belittle AQkhan’s role and there was little truth in that article. Someone with a little common sense would have figured that out.

AlephNull:
indeed, apart from the claims of Pakistan Establishment and some ``estimates`` cited in news reports nothing conclusive ever emerged about what exactly goes on in Kahuta. Has IAEA ever published any report on Pakistan`s supposed nuclear capability? i am not sure.

kaalchakra:
you believe the BS that AQ Khan alone pulled off the profileration operation.? i mean Musharraf followers tend to take him like Allah Almighty - but of all people you think Pak. Army COAS Aslam Beg who is still living, i believe, comfortably somewhere in pak and other generals had absolutely nothing to do with it? strange.

Urstruly #41

The ‘8 nuclear tests’ conducted on Yaum-e-Takbir would obviously convince true believers. These gentlemen also believe that Pakistan develops and fabricates its own missiles and in fact unveils and tests a new model of IRBM every six months.

Revealed religious faith is usually maintained in the absence of any evidence and in the presence of suspicious contrary information. I’m asking for evidence that would carry weight with a skeptic.

I am more willing to believe that a plutonium device – of indeterminate origin - was tested in on the soil of Baluchistan in May 1998, at a time when Pakistan had no known unsafeguarded sources of plutonium. I’m asking again for reasons to believe that uranium enrichment was being conducted successfully on an industrial scale in Pakistan.

Re: # 45 To answer that question Alephnull, Urstruly would have to be come not only Aleph 1, 2 3 and oo but also be a great master spy with total inside information regarding Pak Bombs. If he had that info and he divulged it we would be reading his last rites.

Also the fundemental technical requirements (as you seem to indicate in the difference between a plutonium bomb and industrial quantity uranium) would be lost on many. So please explain/expand on this.

Any true Pakistani nationalist would be feel offended and disgraced by Godot`s # 37 listing of reponsible nuclear nations, in which he includes the name of India, but not of Pakistan.

Yet, the problem with AQKhan is that he truly did disgrace his nation.

Reputation counts. And Mr. Khan hurt his nation a great deal and in real terms.

Reality check: is there any convincing evidence in the public domain that would indicate that Pakistan succeeded in enriching uranium at an industrial scale (i.e. equivalent to tens of kilograms of HEU per year)? Why should one not suspect that the alleged enrichment plant at Kahuta is a Potemkin village?