Overcoming Learned Helplessness and Apathy

Is this criticsm or.....We wonder how somebody can be so indifferent and sensless!

The 'change' going to take place on 29th November will be just an eyewash. The 'military complex' will keep on ruling and will never allow supremacy of people's rule and independence of judiciary. People will have to stand and liberate themselves.

This is one of the best article, I ever read on chowk.com

Very profound, to the point diagnosis of complex social and political ailments of Pakistani society.

Questions which come to my mind are..

How can we build self esteem of masses..and how can we educate them about their rights and power of collective and informed actions ...??

How can we produce some empathy and sense of social justice and collective national honor in our ruling elite...??

Which kind of electric or literary shocks are required to break such emotional and intellectual jams of society...??

We hope that esteemed writers of this wonderful piece of literature will keep on sharing with us such enlightening articles in future as well.

Many thanks and regards,

#55 You can do whatever exercises you want, GDP growth in Pakistan has not resulted in a smaller external debt, netiher has it resulted in poverty reduction or a higher HDI standing for Pakistan. That is all I am concerned with. Even compared to Sub Saharan Africa, Pakistan during this period of global economic upsurge has done worse, in foreign exchange accumulation as well as debt repayment.....

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Here is an interesting article for you:


External debt: a false sense of achievement
By Yousuf Nazar


PAKISTAN’s official external debt has not gone down since 1999 although it has received record aid, investments, and remittances flows. It has gone up to $36.9 billion from $33.6 billion in 1999 despite receiving at least $10 billion in economic, military and development aid from the United States, over $6 billion in privatisation proceeds, and a relief of $1.6 billion in loan write-offs by foreign governments during the last seven years.

The rescheduling of Paris Club debts provided an additional relief of $ 1.2 to $1.5 billion annually in terms of debt service payments. Is the government’s debt management policy as sound and successful as it claims or a historic opportunity to restructure country’s high debt levels has fallen victim to political expediency or a false sense of achievement?

Even after having received such generous assistance, Pakistan external debt to GDP ratio is 28 per cent - slightly worse than Africa’s 26.2 per cent, which also happens to be the average for all the developing countries. The average external debt to GDP ratio of all emerging markets declined from 42.1 in 1999 to 26.2 per cent in 2006, underpinned by strong growth in the global economy and record investment flows into the developing countries.

It is argued that the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sahrif left a heavy external debt burden at 53 per cent of the GDP and the current levels represent a substantial improvement. The net debt flows (disbursements minus repayments) into Pakistan during 1990-1999 aggregated $5.4 billion compared to $1.1 billion during 2000-2006.

Hence, the growth in the debt slowed down during the last seven years. However, post-9/11, Pakistan received generous foreign aid as well as much higher levels of foreign direct investment. Remittances averaged around $4 billion a year during 2003-2006 compared to an average of $1.5 billion in the 1990s.

Nevertheless, Pakistan’s liquid foreign exchange reserves, after jumping to $10 billion-level in 2002-03, have more or less stayed around that level on average. The foreign exchange reserves of even Sub-Saharan countries (excluding South Africa and Nigeria) doubled to $50 billion during the same period. Brazil and Argentina repaid all of their $25 billion debt - by utilising their foreign exchange reserves - to the IMF in early 2006 to rid their countries of its influence.....The present government has criticised the previous governments for the accumulation of almost $18 billion debt in the 1990s and increasing Pakistan’s debt burden. While it is true that the debt accumulation in the 1990s was large, critics of the civilian governments conveniently overlook a key statistic: 77.2 per cent of the gross disbursements during 1990-1999 were utilised to repay the old debts. The debt-service to gross disbursement ratio jumped to 82.8 per cent during 2005-2006. The continuing increase in this key ratio throughout the 1990s and even during 2000-2006 indicates that more and more of new loan disbursements were used to repay the past debts; a significant percentage relating to the borrowings during the previous military regime of General Zia-ul-Haq.

Pakistan’s total external debt that stood at $8.7 billion in 1978, reached about $22 billion (50 per cent of the GDP) by the end of the 1980s. That Pakistan had to borrow more later in the 1990s just to service some of the old debts indicates that the loans were not properly utilised as they did not contribute to the development and therefore to the debt servicing capacity. This raises serious questions about the whole wisdom of politically motivated borrowings from the foreign governments and the institutions under their control.

It is therefore fair to ask whether any cut in aid from the foreign governments would be of real significance from a development perspective and particularly in a global economic environment when the private capital flows (through foreign direct investments and international capital markets) have become the dominant source of financing to the developing countries. As a group, they reduced their total external debt to the foreign governments and multilateral institutions (WB, IMF, ADB, etc.) through net repayments of $48 billion in 2006 whilst attracting a staggering $502 billion in net private capital flows.

Pakistan’s vicious cycle of borrowings from foreign governments and multilateral institutions, graft, waste, and accumulation of more debt to repay the old debts leads one to believe that the rulers have been putting excessive burden on the people and mortgaging their future by borrowing more and more while indulging in wasteful and unproductive spending while the ‘big fish’ get away with not only benefiting from the “development projects” financed by external borrowings but also with paying no taxes.

Pakistan’s foreign (or hard currency) debt to total debt (that is, including domestic debt) ratio of 47 per cent is high compared to an average of 28 per cent for emerging economies. Given our long-term track record of using foreign debt to indulge in wasteful expenditure, it would be in the best national interest to set up a special fund (in a hard currency, be it dollar or euro) to accumulate all the privatisation proceeds and use that for the early retirement of our external debt. Some countries, like Russia, have set up hard currency stabilization funds to provide for the rainy days.

However, this would be just one among a series of measures needed to reduce dependence on foreign debt. We must cut imports and reduce the rapidly deteriorating current account deficit that has prevented a build-up of foreign exchange reserves since 2003. We must also strive to increase the tax- to- GDP ratio from 10 per cent (one of the lowest) to 17 per cent within the next five years instead of making far-fetched 10-year plans.

The writer is a former head of Emerging Markets Equity Investments, Citigroup.

Dawn

Masadi sahib,

It may be a useful exercise to compare the net external debt of Pakistan as on date and on 12/10/99 and also the ratio of the net ext debt/GDP and net ext. debt/Exports for the respective dates/years.*-)

(GDP, over 99% of which lands in the pockets of less than 1% of the population)

I am not sure of the authenticity of this number. Can you quote some reliable source.

Thanks in advance

Regards

clifton writes "My question is by what objective figures is the economy worse off now?"

In the poverty percent, given the large increase in the population which translates into a lot more people poor now. In the rate of inflation. In the total outstanding debt, and finally in the HDI ranking which has barely improved since 1999, and don't forget 1999 was when the Banana Republic economy of dicatorship, had not kicked in and Pakistan was under sanctions, and the US dirty billions had not started flowing in, neither had the government concenssions for kickbacks by whoring the country to foreign investors. Of course you don't see any of this because for you economic indicators are just growth in GDP, over 99% of which lands in the pockets of less than 1% of the population, that is why the indicators in Pakistan today that measure social progess are among the worst anywhere in the world.

Re: # 50 Romair idea's are fine but there things need to thought by intelluctuals regarding water rights and most importantly who will "control national assets like nuclear weapons". Till these things are not thought idea of union is premature.

Masadi it doesnt matter if you support BB/NS or not and it shouldnt matter that i dont. Thats not my question. I also wasnt asking you to explain the "source of the problem" or the tinpot banana republic theory of economic booms which i sort of agree with anyway.

My question is by what objective figures is the economy worse off now? (besides inflation which i grant you)

Re: # 49 As usual Masadi straight direct and factual , no fluff or useless stuff.
Thanks for that

Re: # 40 Romair has resonable idea. It will solve problems as then Sindhis will not feel dominated by MQM and Karachians ( MQM) do need to come down socially when social conditions are averaged. But with conditions of no too much Indian things we should watch Indian actions "Muh me ram Bagal me chhuri".
Same way Baloachistan need separate state for poor baloachstan and powerful pathans with pathanistan with quatta as capital and big G as capital for Baloach people. Also same in punjab. I remember once/few times Romair had mentioned Pakistan is only country with over 50% of one tribe of Punjab,. You add to that indian Punjabis its big domination. Actually nothing is that bad but illusions are more powerful than truth. All minority proninces are obessesed with so called "punjabi" domination etc. Same with india, most movements based on racial or tribal hatred end up in serving elites of west and we are example of that, that 60 years journey from someting to nothing. Balochi people are not bad but they are greedy to have all money from gas found there. They did not do to have gas there just allah blessed that land. Now poor punjabi , poor balochi feels he does not need cheap gas, he should pay international price. Idea of brotherhood is lost in greed.
Once romair said is right when many provinces then no domination and integrity is assured. All things are going down, white nice loking punjabi and sindhi women marrying dark MQM man as they are smart and educated. This is vertical integration and already horizontal integration taking place abd weathering of "people" taking place not good to some extent but one has to expect all bad good things I guess. Now india is also in mess, with tamil war and bhai loks going all over , it happening all over world even in bradford and just people are killing specialities marrying anybody. Imaran and rajiv are examples, their children kind of no culture like beef eater gandi family and pork feasting imrans children. It just mess now day people without morality and bad influence and hormone filled young people dancing and listening to bad music/ not even bad music but chaos music it like slow poison. It is better be be nonreligious so you are devoid of stupid , outdated dogmas and do not have to believe on stupid not probale things of angles flying and animal talking , or yoga stuff which hurts your body and brainwashes for particular religion. But you see so stupid and morbit secular people I have chaned thinging about god and religion and all stuff. IT is better to have some belief than no belief for most people as their mind is pollulated by modern things. Any way it going late so need to depart. Today my mind is not working fine honestly but one has to be modest and honest so thia tirade against young people. Good night.

#48, I have already answered your questions, let me reiterate:

1. The military was still firmly in charge through the stop-gap "democracy" period. I am no supporter of BB/NS but unlike your myopic self, I go to the source of the problem, a problem that creates individuals and politicians that are corrupt and that is the military gun under which they have to operate- same thing as the chain of corruption started among the locals by the colonizers in order to keep the masses in check. The Pakistan Army has taken over the role of the colonizers and the product are corrupt politicians managing the masses whose voices have been coopted on behalf of the US elite....

2. Regarding the economy, Pakistan has been progressively sliding down due in part to rising population and runaway inflation as a direct conseqence of military interference and policies regarding the economy. Short term speculative gain, that has occurred after every military coup- a "gain" which does not affect any part of the mass population, is the hallmark of all banana republics. When institutions geared to serve externals have not been allowed to restructure to serve the locals (attempts were made during the ZAB era), you cannot talk about any "gains"-

masadi i have 2 serious qu's for you from our prior convo, i actually agree with alot of what you say...but

1. Was BB not a spawn of the western elite?
2. By what stats did the economy look better under her/NS ? I did a quick search and couldnt find any support of your contention, what am i missing?

Bulleya there are some problems with your analysis. I agree that a piece of land should not be worshipped and who cares if a land that existed for 35 years is redefined.

But the issues are water, food and nukes. If the provinces are at war with each other , and belive me there are no bloodless partitions ...we are all doomed. I favour greater provincial autonomy but not partition.

As individuals Pakistanis are only strongly divided along lines of class and religious rigidity. As much as we all mouth off on the internet ethnicity is a very secondary factor in day to day life amongst liberals and fundos alike.

It has played a big part in politics because most pakis are illiterate and cant follow intellectual positions very well. They can follow blood lines though , like lemmings. But tell me how much opposition is there to say intermarriages between ethnicities? Even altaph the face of ethnic bigotry believe's in dullha's without borders.

In addition to #45, that is the reason why the US admn talks about "taking the uniform off" in every discussion with him, and the "uniform" was the major contention point in the BB/Musharraf discussion and the main reason why the emergency was declared (even though Imran Khan doesnt get it): to save the uniform and remain COAS, and not to remove threats to his "civilian" presidency.

HP writes "to preserve the people and institutions that the US intends to utilize to preserve long term control over the society."

Your points are good, especially about the NGOs, don't know much about the lawyers except for their unintended "movement" which has gained momentum- the US is not for legal challenges to its supported government(s) or dictators, and the lawyers in Pakistan (unlike the NGOs, especially foreign ones) have been quite helpless faced by a Supreme Court that until recently was doing the bidding of the powers that be.

That said, Benazir's role is a different one in my opinion, that of not fragmenting the US occupation force (the Pak Army). Musharraf is out of favor and was pushed to the point of declaring emergency by the US manufactured crisis post February. They want him gone because of external ulterior motive, involving Iran. A military coup that overthrows a established COAS has not happened yet in Pakistan's history simply because the risks involved are too great. Fragmenting this military with such a coup would not be to the interest of the US for its long term plans for control of Pakistan. Now, Benazir as a stop gap, takes care of that dilemma....and that is what will happen when the new COAS gets rid of her at the heels of the Iran expedition....

SC writes "he walks like, quacks like a Punju"

It is unbecoming of you to condemn an entire ethnicity because some a-holes have condemned yours. If Kulharee marries dumbo doesn't mean you should do the same out of spite. Let him suffer alone because of his perversions, don't be so eager to join him