Match Report: Pakistan vs South Africa

Pak plays NZ in semi finals

Irrespective of the result of the Aus - SA match, Pak will play NZ for a place in the final.

If Aus win, Pak is top of the league (assuming Aus victory margin is less than 75 runs) and plays NZ which will be fourth (edging out Zim on run rate). If Aus lose, then Aus is eliminated, SA is 1, Pak 2, NZ 3 and Zim 4. So we again play NZ.

Pak reach semi`s and avoid Aus/ SA Pak started off very well against Zim but the middle order floundered and we ended at 272/9. Zim is 128 all out, Saqlain has a hat trick and Saeed has a ton!

We have a very high probability of avoiding either of the big boys in the semi`s.

If SA wins against Aus, they are No 1 and Pak is 2 and will play against either Zim or NZ (if they win against India) and Aus will be out. If NZ lose, then Aus will be in (since they beat India) and will play SA in the semi`s.

If Aus wins against SA, then SA, Aus and Pak are tied at 6 points each. Then run rates click in and after Zim win, Pak is at 0.656 which is well ahead of the Aus rate of 0.44. This means that Aus will have to get a net run rate in last match of 1.52. If they bat first, this is equivalent to beating SA by 76 runs which is highly improbable.

My preferred scenario - I would prefer SA breaking Aus running spree in the last match but Aus still qualifying over NZ (who lose to India). Aus NZ play SA again and defeat SA for a final berth against Pak. And Pak thrashes Aus for the cup!

Re: Aminai

Agree that Pakistan chasing a Zimbabwe score of anything in excess of 225 will not be easy - over 250 will be close to unattainable in current form. So we should pray Pakistan wins the toss and bats first.


Pakistan is lacking an anchor: Inzi & Razzaq tried the role and became deadweights. Ijaz is prone to that as well. Rotating the strike and taking 1`s and 2`s is beyond most Pakistani batsmen who wish to (or could) play the anchor in a run chase. And frankly, there is no solution at hand (Miandad ko wapus lao Oaay!)

But there are some small remedies:

1. Keep Wasti and Malik out of the team. Its better to have Waqar in the team if Youhana is injured than Malik. Easy wickets and out of form batsmen put pressure on the other batters.
2. Azhar Mahmood should open with Saeed. Afridi should bat in the late middle order
3. Razzaq bats down the order the way he did against India. First, Razzaq is a moron with the bat and completely screws up the runrate- also puts pressure on Anwar etc. to make up for his dot balls. Second, there is no way that the in form batters - Youhana, Moin, Azhar - should come after him. He is NOT working in the anchor role - going the deadweight way almost everytime.

A batting order of Saeed, Azhar, Youhana, Inzimam, Moin, Afridi, Razzaq, Akram can get the job done. Ijaz comes in at No. 3 or 4 as the situation demands (actually place Ijaz whereever you wish - his existence is orthogonal to the success of Pakistan cricket).

Even with 9 batsmen (plus Saqlain), we have not really gotten the job done in any match save Australia & NZ (Scotland, Windies, Bang., Ind., and SA were all mediocre to pathetic batting performances)


PS: If pakistan beats Zim and Aus beats SA (likely in my mind), Zimbabwe will finish 4th and Pakistan will NOT finish 1st for sure so they wont play Zim. If SA wins against Aus then Pakistan will play Zim in the semifinals.

PPS: Zimbabwe just gave a brilliant batting display against Aus - chasing 303 they made 259/6 and at one stage (midway) were looking to win!

Pakistan and the semi finals

Despite Pakistan`s pathetic performance over the last three matches, I am still optimistic that Pak can get to the semi`s and avoid playing either South Africa or Australia. That may sound cowardly, but our team needs as many relatively easy matches as possible to win back confidence.

This is based on the assumption that the rest of the league matches go according to general expectations. (something proved wrong by SA - Zim and Pak - Bang). The remaining matches and expected results are:

Zim VS Aus - Aus wins

SA VS NZ - SA wins

Pak VS Zim - Pak wins

Results - Pak and SA 6, Zim 5, Aus at 4, NZ at 3.

The other 2 - SA VS Aus and Ind - NZ are hard to predict.

If SA wins, they are No 1, Pak 2, Zim 3 and Aus 4 - i.e. Pak plays Zim again in semi`s. If NZ defeats India, Aus are out and Pak plays either Zim or NZ. An Indian win over NZ still leaves them out since they have lost to Aus.

If Aus win, then SA, Aus and Pak are tied and net run rates click in - something which Pak are currently good at and hopefully can improve against Zim.

If Pak lose to Zim, then we should start praying that India wins from NZ and SA wins from Aus so that Pak, Ind and SA are are competing on net run rate for last position in semis against SA. And start wondering if Pak deserves to be in the semi`s anyway

Re. Khan (#6)

Actually, if Pakistan win against Zimbabwe, they will most likely play Zimbabwe again in the semi`s. However, I do not think Pakistan will beat Zimbabwe on Friday --- certainly not if Zimbabwe bat first. Pakistan have always had difficulty beating Zimbabwe, and especially handling Heath Streak.

After today`s performance, I am not sure that Pakistan deserves to be in the semi`s anyway. First they need to evelop the discipline to bat like a winning side.

Ali

It might actually be good that Pak lost to India. Now they will probably face Zim in the semis

(hopefully)...

Zim Vs Aus winner Aus

SA vs NZ winner SA

Zim vs Pak winner Pak

Ind vs NZ winner India

SA vs Aus cant say

If SA wins against australia, Pak plays Zim...if Australia wins, Pak plays Aus.

Re Rishi:

From where I stand, I DONT see Pakistan reaching the final as a high probability event, considering that if they beat Zim, they will most likely play SA or Aus in the Semis.

I AM amused at the possibility of a Pakistan loss giving India easy passage to the final, though as you say it would matter little to me who reached the final if Pakistan loses its 4th straight. (Given the act that Zimbabwe beat SA and India, and Pakistan lost to Bang., SA and India, I am justified in not being overly optimistic about the Zimbabwe match.)

- Umair

O Miandad where are thee?

After the match Wasim was asked how would he motivate the team after these losses. His lame duck reply was the team players are mature and will know what to do. Wrong!

If he were right, after the Bangladesh debacle the team should have rebounded.

Re: Khan

Seems to me that you are more bothered about the remote (in my opinion) possibility of India moving into the final than a much lesser probability of Pakistan not moving into the Final. Hope you have your priorities right, my friend.

Rishi

Re iconoclast:

Pakistan had won 9 out of the last 10 one day international matches against India before they played at Manchaster today. According to your logic, we should have had all of Kashmir by now?

Brilliant stuff today by the Pakistanis against India.

All they need to do is repeat the performance against Zimbabwe and India is through to the Finals (If Zimbabwe win they will most probably go to the top with 7 points, S. Africa and Aus follow and the fourth qualifier will be India).

First manchester , next kargil

iconoclast