Benazir Bhutto: Third Time Lucky?

Mr. Ghori, thanks for a profound and balanced article. I might add my two-pence to this analysis:

Despite the friction between MMA and Musharraf on the issue of operation in South Waziristan, Shariah Bill and Madrassahs... Musharraf can trust MMA more than PPP. MMA needs Musharraf more than Musharraf needs the MMA. This strengthens Musharraf`s negotiating position vis-a-vis the MMA. On the other hand, PPP is quite capable of winning an election and forming at least a coalition government (if not a majority govt) without the Army`s help. This reduces Musharraf`s leverage with the PPP.

Under the present circumstances, Benazir will happily strike any deal with Musharraf that promises her withdrawal of corruption cases, release for Asif Zardari and Prime Ministership (even if it is a nominal one).

Once back in Pakistan, Benazir is fully capable of revitalizing her party, horse-trading the PML-Q politicians and shunting Musharraf out of both his offices. Unless the Americans pressurize Musharraf, he will not willingly strike a deal with Benazir simply because he can`t manipulate her like the MMA.

For Pakistan however, a Musharraf-PPP government is ideal. Given the liberal, pro-US and progressive outlook of PPP and Musharraf, this would be a natural alliance. It will certainly spell trouble for the MMA and obscurantist elements within the PML-Q.

Nawaz Sharif to miss father`s funeral because of conditions: Spokesman

ISLAMABAD (AFP)- Former Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif will not make a brief return from exile to bury his father because the government wants to impose strict conditions on his stay, his party spokesman said Sunday.

Mian Mohammad Sharif, 85, who had been living in exile along with his sons and close family members, died at a hospital in Jeddah late Friday.

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party spokesman Siddiqul Farooq said Mian Sharif`s body would be flown to Pakistan late on Sunday after being taken for prayers at Mecca, Islam`s holiest shrine near Jeddah.

He will be laid to rest on Monday near the eastern city of Lahore in the town of Raiwind, where the Sharif family has built a hospital and they have farmland.

Farooq said Pakistan`s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Abdul Aziz Mirza, met Nawaz Sharif and other family members in Jeddah on Saturday to pay his condolences and ask the Sharifs to submit an official request for permission to visit Pakistan.

He said Mirza had told the Sharifs they would have to travel from Lahore airport to the graveyard and then immediately fly back to Jeddah.(Nation)

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Musharraf is a COWARDLY Cobra -- a double-headed reptile with a Kargillian brain -- he is still mortally afraid of unarmd civilians....

to expect RECONCILIATION from Mussharraf -- is to expect a scorpion change its nature......as they say in persian: Nesh-e aqrab nu uz paye keeN ust/muqtazaaye tabeeutush eeN ust......all that arrogance did no good to Zia -- will do no good to Musharraf.... either

Nobdy is Lucky all the time...well whenever she steps in Pakistan now she have to face charges against her..Alhamdulilah
plus we shud have a law which state dat a prime minister can not come into power for a thrid term just as in USA

Benazir Bhutto does not need luck really.

All she needs to do is participate in a free election

if Pakistanis are lucky enough to have one in the

near future.

She still leads the largest political party in Pakistan.

BB will have to wait until the rent agreement ends and the economic `miracle` fizzles out.

When are these Chaudhri`s going to go away? Any chance of them getting booted from the political scene?

the Sharifs are coming to Lahore including Nawaz Sharif -- to bury the Elder Sharif -- why not allow them to stay -- without losing face.....TIME to start -- the overdue process of RECONCILIATION......it will only strenghthen Musharraf`s Peace Initiative....

TIME to bury the hatchet between Benazir, Nawaz Sharif -- and Musharraf.........Time to make Pakistan`s Politics a little more normal and a little more civilized......

HP #10: Interesting analysis.

If this is the political situation of Pakistani, and especially Sindhi, politics, then how will it ever get resolved? I have never bought the argument that election after election will eventually get rid of the crooks. For the simple reason that the crook candidates are the biggest supporters of elections. They would not support something that would get rid of them. This indicates they see elections, under the current system, as the best way to maintain their power. Not a method through which they will be removed.

Personally, I only see one resolution (perhaps two resolutions). Economic progress, first and foremost. Once the per capita income of Pakistan, get beyond a certain level, then a middle class will develop across Pakistan. Currently a middle class exists just in Karachi (and somewhat in Lahore). At the point, the control of feudals and others on society will reduce, and people will finally be able to vote without pressures. Thereby voting in middle class urban leaders.

The above requires giving economic growth rates more importance than anything else. I don`t think it is a coincidence that the third world countries in Asia, which prefered economic growth over elections and other theoretical niceties, have moved out of the third world. Examples include Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, China etc. And those that prefered elections over economic stability remain stuck in the third world. Examples include India, Bangladesh, Pakistan (off and on) etc.

What ever the wana-be `english class of Pakistan ` who are in a world of there own and thinks what ever they say and think is `right` just because they read some ` walayatee books ` BiBi ( Benazir ) is a reality corrupt or more corrupt her and her fathers name will always be in the good and bad books of every Pakistani. As far as Mush is concerned here was have someone ( Mush ) who hates sharing powers and his last option would be to share power with someone as dynamic as Benazir who will over-ride Mushraff`s Personality at every stage and if we know Mushraff he likes to dominate everything and everyone .
When Mushraff was a Maj Gen and BiBi happens to be a PM , Mush was giving her a lecture on Siachen and Kargil Sectors and Bibi was trying to dominate Mush by interupting him on almost every sentance , Mush rolled his pads and walked off ; BiBi asked Chief not ever to permote him - anyhow, Mush and BiBi would be the best combination but Mush would only opt BiBi when his options runs out .

Benazir Bhutto: Third Time Lucky?

Never!

“Tea leaves readers and crystal ball gazing political pundits believe that BB’s persistence to seek yet another crack at office may be about to pay off.”

Those pundits must be drinking KoolAid!

“Musharraf’s antipathy and aversion to Nawaz could be justified”

The article is full of cliché and inanes that don’t jive with political reality in Pakistan.

Often political commentators rely on stories and “sina ba sina” news that travels in Isloo and then moves on to another parts of the country. Every couple of year peoples party starts these rumors and these rumors intensify after BB’s visit to the US.
PPP needs these rumors to shore up its support. Why? Let’s look at it with some objectivity instead of hype that is very much evident from this article.

Every contested National assembly seat in Pakistan cost more than Rs.10 million per candidate. The provincial assembly seats run about Rs.3 to 5 million per candidate. All seats in Sindh are hotly contested and most of the candidates pay for the election expenses from their own pockets and in fact, some of them pay money to get the ticket from the political parties. When a person is elected to the National or the provincial assembly he is already out a substantial sum and somehow he/she needs to recover that money. The only way these National assembly members pay loans back and recover the investment in elections is to grab some favors from the government. The longer it takes for the opposition MNAs and MPAs to cut a deal with the government, higher the desperation and anxiety go. Banks start calling the loans, Loan shark starts asking for money back and a very few MNAs that have deep pockets stay with the opposition. Currently a good majority of PPP MNAs are from Sindh (excluding Karachi and Hyd.). Sindh has yet another drawback for candidates. It does not have established businesses to finance candidate’s election so the Sindhi MNA get more desperate than the MNAs from NWFP and Punjab.

In NWFP drug money was a source to finance the election and that source has pretty much dried up after the US attack but Jihadi chanda(donations) were high after that. The Islami parties had money to support their candidate from NWFP and Balochistan and the other candidates that always relied on the soft money from Drug dealers were handicapped and lost elections.
MNAs from Punjab have a better system to support their elections, they stay with the government.

Now Sindhi MNAs are out of power for almost seven years and their desperation has no bounds. Thus, we see these rumors that BB is supported by the US and she will soon be in power. It is good news for the Sindhi MNAS and they will try to hang on with the PPP a little longer but eventually, we will start seeing the rate of defections go up or the PPP MNAs would start supporting the govt from the opposition benches.

Before looking at the fantasy US support for BB, we need to look at the cultural difference that BB has with the Army. I am not talking about ethnic biases here. Most of the Generals are not personally prejudiced against Sindhi or baluchis. There is a history of animosity between the army and the PPP from the ZAB days. The Army has always considered PPP as its main political rival. It grudgingly allowed BB to be PM twice but it moved against her at the first opportunity.

One PPP bigwig during the last PPP government said that they are hanging on by one corps commander vote and as soon as that vote is gone, we will be walked and that is exactly what happened.
Asif Zardari was desperate to make money during the last BB PM-ship because he knew this honeymoon with the army would not last long and he should make as much as possible in whatever time PPP has left in power. Zardari did not make that money for himself that money was distributed amongst the MNAs and MPAs to cover their election expenses. Political parties in Pakistan need lots of money and plenty of rumors to reduce defections.

The army absolutely has to be forced to share power with BB. It is not a matter of what Mush-Bush think; it is a matter of how a majority of Generals and especially corps commander in the Army think. Generals would not share power with BB in the current situation period.
The US practically has no say in this matter. The US may ask Mushy to release Asif or be nice to BB, when she goes back to Pakistan, beyond that the US cannot help BB.
Consider this, in 1999 the army overthrew NS knowing fully well that NS had full US support and an economic hell would break lose if NS was removed but the army went ahead and did it anyway. It completely disregarded any economic or strategic aspect of NS removal. Had there been no 9-11, Pakistan would still be under the US and European Union economic sanctions.
The interest of the army is first and foremost for the generals.

Lastly, look at the current political situation in Pakistan. The army is under no pressure from any side to compromise with any political party. It has effectively rolled back all the concessions that it worked out with the political parties’ couple of years ago. It has even put a non political person as PM. In the current situation, the army doesn’t need the MMA either and soon they will be tossed out too. If there are new elections in Pakistan, BB/PPP would lose rest of their MNAs and only a skeleton would remain.
PPP/BB needs rumors to survive and that is what this article is based on.

Benazir Bhutto: Third Time Lucky?
Karamatullah K. Ghori

only if she grows a handlebar:
and asif wears a dupatta
temporal

LOL ...... Wait till Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Junior Comes of Age...... presumely some time in or after 2011......

We have seen two tenures of BB, she brought nothing to Pakistan beside corruption, why bank on her?? Infect both of the main stream political leader are better off in exile, good for them and very very good for the people of Pakistan. We need leaders with vision, leaders who are willing to take drastic steps, not afraid of change. Not the leaders who support status quo and lick military for the sack of there own survivals.

And for those who think they are integral to flourish democracy in Pakistan, my question is how one can trust on them even when they are not democratic in there own party system?? (e.g. BB as PPP Chairperson for life).

It is funny how us Pakistanis are always trying to delude ourselves into believing that the US is oh so interested in us. It might be but certainly not the way we make it out to be.

Shouldn`t the following be the reason enough for us as Pakistanis and Muslims to resist Washington and the pimps that it forces upon us, sometimes in uniform and sometime in duppatta?



PAKISTANI KIDS HEADED TOWARDS THEIR SCHOOL

Washington has given a tall order to Pakistan and this order can only be fulfilled by a military regime. The murder and oppression of its own citizens is tantamount to political death of any political party be it PPP. In the next phase of `war on terra`, which will begin in January of next year - no matter which candidate wins - Pakistan will be required to crush any political party with a religious leaning like it was done in Egypt. That is the next logical step to secure US interest in the Pak-Afghan region. PPP (or PML) despite having wide popularity still depend heavily on forming coalitions with Islamic parties throughout the country. So logically that leaves anti-Islamists with only one option - to use unileteral fascist tactics. Na Pak fauj as a new enterant as a legalized political entity is perfectly capable of doing it depending fully on its Quislings. An alliance with PPP (of army) is cumbersome and unpredictable, even if God Himself appoints Benazir as a power-share with Mushsraf. I do not think Washington has that kind of luxury.