Water Scenario: Past, Present and Future of Pakistan

Baghlihar was cleared by a neutral expert(meaning he was accepatble to pakstan also). so how can pakistani`s say we violated the treaty? and morover the electricity we generate are not destined for delhi, but for kashmir.

Verily, we are phucked.

T32 & RH

Your point about the demographic explosion is well taken... but then the logical end point takes us to the Malthusian trio of femine, pestilence and war. I think we already see much emerging evidence of just that.

My scenario is far from 'doomsday' ... The wishful thinking you project when contemplating a 'desalination technology' solution has just one problem. It simply ignores the laws of physics.

Islamabad, for instance is 2200 feet above sea level. Abbotabad is just short of 5000. The list is long, and you know the geography just as well, but I hope you get my point.

Now imagine the hundreds of million of gallons that will need to move 800 miles and thousands of feet against a steep gravity gradiant. Just lift a bucket of water and climb upstairs in your house. You will know what I mean. Where will the energy for that come from?

There simply isn't that much power production capacity on planet Earth as will be required to move that much water, that far and that high. It simply cannot be done.

The trickle agriculture technology is wonderful. I've deployed it in my 'growing patch' in Islamabad. But the percentage of previously wasted water saved by 'trickle' is no more than 25% on average. If 97 percent water is used in agriculture and you upgrade the irrigation system to 'trickle' and save 24 1/4 percent of water, i.e.,(97 x 0.25)... Not enough. The shortfall is 40% and it may turn out to be higher as weather patterns change.

Verily, we are phucked.

...SR

Re: # 4
Let's not get too carried away by fears. I think there are many things that can done before we reach the doomsday scenario.

For example, about 97% of water in Pakistan today is used in farming and a lot of it is wasted because of flood irrigation. A lot of farm water can be saved without hurting crop yields by using more efficient water irrigation techniques such as sprinklers or drip systems.

A California study recently found that water use efficiency ranged from 60%-85% for surface irrigation to 70%-90% for sprinkler irrigation and 88%-90% for drip irrigation. Potential savings would be even higher if the technology switch were combined with more precise irrigation scheduling and a partial shift from lower-value, water-intensive crops to higher-value, more water-efficient crops.

As a first step toward improving efficiency, Pakistan government has launched a 1.3 billion U.S. dollar drip irrigation program that could help reduce water waste over the next five years. Early results are encouraging.

If we can buy enough time, there will eventually be a cost-effective mass water desalination technology driven by droughts in many parts of the world.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

Re: # 4
Let's not get too carried away by fears. I think there are many things that can done before we reach the doomsday scenario.

For example, about 97% of water in Pakistan today is used in farming and a lot of it is wasted because of flood irrigation. A lot of farm water can be saved without hurting crop yields by using more efficient water irrigation techniques such as sprinklers or drip systems.

A California study recently found that water use efficiency ranged from 60%-85% for surface irrigation to 70%-90% for sprinkler irrigation and 88%-90% for drip irrigation. Potential savings would be even higher if the technology switch were combined with more precise irrigation scheduling and a partial shift from lower-value, water-intensive crops to higher-value, more water-efficient crops.

As a first step toward improving efficiency, Pakistan government has launched a 1.3 billion U.S. dollar drip irrigation program that could help reduce water waste over the next five years. Early results are encouraging.

If we can buy enough time, there will eventually be a cost-effective mass water desalination technology driven by droughts in many parts of the world.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

#4 a bigger problem than climate change (big enough though that is) is demographic. those least capable of providing proper education to their children produce the most babies. the only hope for pakistan is that demographic impolosion in the rich countries will create opportunities for excess population to migrate. but then, what happens when rich countries are populated by people who have no respect and no understanding for the basic values and culture that made europe and the US well off (no, it was not colonialism - it was the work ethic, it was entrepreneurship, it was dedication to scientific exploration). perhaps the human species is doomed to ultimately revert to the level of the lowest common denominator - as the evolutionary process is turned on its head, and those who are least fit end up having the most children. fortunately - there are too many unknowns in real life - complex interactions of socio-cultural-technological-scientific dynamics - for such gloomy thoughts to be considered reliable predictions.

Zia sahib, building dams will only buy us about 15 years, maybe 20. Then the inevitable will only be delayed by that long. Dams can not create water. Dams only store water, if there is water to be stored in the first place.

The real threat facing us is not what India does or does not do. The real issue is that there is not enough water resource left. Precipitation is falling short of relpenishing the water that is being used up. Almost 40% water is now coming from glacier-melt.

The glaciers, in their turn are receding at an alarming rate. Only two decades back it was believed that glaciers loss was a very slow phenomenon and would take centuries before they are gone. More recent opinion holds that it may only take a few decades. That, if true, is the kiss of death.

There would have to be a mass scale depopulation of northern Pakistan. Mass migrations would shift displaced populations south along the coast where, at least, desalination plants can be built. The costal highway connecting Karachi to Gawadar could become the busiest corridor in the country with towns studding the coast at every 15 km interval along the road. These might be sprawling shanty towns in a desperately over populated and polluted part of the world.

The picyure is not pretty. There is little even mighty India can do.

Whater problem is mainly fuelled by rising human population and natuarl imballance...India is minor player in this scenario, whatever way you want to project it...
Large dams are always destructrive to nature and brings devastation in lower reaparian areas of the river....

As the water crisis becomes global, there is a real prospect of water wars breaking out. There is also the fear of growth in social discontent, terrorism and instability from the potential ravages of water scarcity in the form of crop failures and increased hunger ( including potential for famines) and poverty in many parts of the world, including Pakistan.

Some predict that the first major water war will likely be fought between India and Pakistan, if the current issues between the two nations are not resolved and the water shortage in Pakistan becomes more acute. Already, several rivers in Pakistan have dried to a trickle. Once a strong-flowing river, Chenab in Punjab is now a slow-flowing trickle. Locals say the river once came up close to the top of the road bridge but now it dribbles past, meters below.

According to the United Nations' World Water Development Report, the total actual renewable water resources in Pakistan decreased from 2,961 cubic meters per capita in 2000 to 1,420 cubic meters in 2005. A more recent study indicates an available supply of water of little more than 1,000 cubic meters per person, which puts Pakistan in the category of a high stress country.

Among the 25 most populous countries in 2009, South Africa, Egypt and Pakistan are the most water-limited nations. India and China, however, are not far behind with per capita renewable water resources of only 1600 and 2100 cubic meters per person per year. Major European countries have up to twice as much renewable water resources per capita, ranging from 2300 (Germany) to 3000 (France) cubic meters per person per year. The United States of America, on the other hand, has far greater renewable water resources than China, India or major European countries: 9800 cubic meters per person per year. By far the largest renewable water resources are reported from Brazil and the Russian Federation - with 31900 and 42500 cubic meters per person per year.
Riaz Haq, PakAlumni Worldwide

I have glanced through this article. I have not read it fully. I just want to get a few things off my chest before the mud fight begins.

One, the Govt of India(GOI) and the technical experts and advisors it employs are not stupid. It is very fashionable to think so, especially among the Uber Pakis. But reality bites.

Two, the GOI takes the treaties and obligations it has signed very very seriously and will abide by them at all costs. It will not sign a treaty that it considers harmful to its interests regardless of the price it will have to pay for the defiance. Examples -- NPT, CTBT, FCMT etc.

This is further evidenced by the fact that even Uber Pakis admit that the Inida abided by the Indus water treaty even during the 65, 71 and the Kargil wars. The GOI's fights are always with the Paki administration and NOT with the ordinary people.

Also, please note that the GOI did not "lose" the recent arbitration hearings on Bhaglihar conducted by the neutral Swiss expert recently. Bhaglihar is operational today substantially as it was designed and built except for a few changes specified by the arbiter -- which were complied with by GOI.

Three, the uber Pakis who will inevitably crawl out of the woodwork and shout as if they they themselves wrote the Indus water treaty and paint India as the villian, please note, your opinion does not matter in the least, and neither does the opinion of the Uber Indian nationalists.

The treaty will be interpreted by a mutually acceptable neutral expert as specified in the treaty itself and his/her opinions are all that matters.

What is most important is that once a judgment has been delivered, if one party does not like it and has no legal ways to appeal it, it should accept it gracefully. Regardless of who is on the losing side -- be it India or Pakistan.

Having said that, it would help matters immensely if we could all refrain from rehashing and retrying arbitration hearings that are already closed. It is a futile exercise. It is better to focus on upcoming open issues that will need to be resolved.

Finally, please note, the people who are pushing for these dams to be built and those who will be the primary beneficiaries and consumers of the power generated are the people of Jammu & Kashmir.