Defending Pakistan

Instead of doing so much research on how to compete with Indian. It will be highly appreciable if you concentrate your effort on how to improve your economy. Pakistan is what it is today is mostly because of lots of western aid. A country of the size but less populated than UP has an external debt of $33 Billion. Forget about the non-refundable aids. These aids are drying up and it will be highly difficult for pakistan to repay these loans. After 50 ys of independence pakistan is not able to feed its population, Why? Having 8 times more population than that India has done so. Even though you guys don`t seem to understand India. As time goes by It will be difficult for pakistan to compete with. India is 4th largest economic power in terms with PPP. In another 20 years It will be 3rd or close to Japan. Even if India spents 5% of GDP on Defense, it will be more than the GDP of Pakistan. All I want to say is that Pakistan will be ruined if it maintains this attitude. India has no enemity with pakistan. Kashmir is just an excuse for Pakistan to keep engaged with India. I don`t believe at all that if India hands over Kashmir to Pakistan on a silver platter. Pakistan will start behaving like a good neighbour. Not at all. It will immediatly find another excuse. Pakistanis are obsessed with their past that Gazni, Babar or Ghouri had successfully invaded and ruled India, so why can`t we with the western weapons. But my friends those days were different. Today its not going to work. So, all I would suggest is ``Change your basic attitude towards India``.

Jai Hind

Amir,

I should appreciate that this paper of yours is a good try, but remians to be part factual, part emotional, and part opinion, and part thoretical.

It seems to me that not only are you a high proponent of indigenous production, you also support a conflict with India (Pak Platform vs. Ind. Platform).

It si one thing to say that Indian navy has aircraft carriers and harriers, Dehli destroyers etc, and another to find out their operational status.

Also, it is not as easy as one two three to install a land based SSM on to a naval ship, and there are a lot of issues involved.

India did lease a charlie class from Russia(INS chakra) but they still remain far from testing or inducting a Nuclear submarine, due to reactor development hurdles.

It is not that easy to pursue Ukraine or CA states for arms, as they use russian parts. Also, Grippen uses a GE engine, and they can`t export it till an American license is granted.

I hate to object further, but military feasibility, procurement, and acquisition is not as easy as you might think it is. Russia might be cash stripped, but they are not in the market for us.

Nice piece, but lets not forget that military power is based on ECONOMIC POWER. And that means rooting out corruption, and recovering looted national wealth, and creating an atmosphere conducive to foreign investment i.e an end to sectarian and religious violence, the culture of intolerance and bigotry.

There is no denying Pakistan`s armed forces need better, newer equipment, especially modern medium-higher altitude SAMs like the Crotale NG, and a fighter in the class of the Grippen (costs about $25 million a piece) to keep up with Indian technological acquisitions. But the country is flat broke and living on international handouts for G-Ds sake. I don`t think its necessary to match India blow for blow or acquisition for acquisition. Pakistan should NOT purchase more low tech planes like the F-7MG (new order for 50 placed recently is enough). You suggested another 150-200 of these birds, even if the avionics etc are Western European. Pakistan needs to acquire around 70 Grippen (4th Generation fighter) to replace the canceled order for the F-16s (Grippen is WAY more capable, and costs just as much as the F-16s were going to cost THEN), not a `heavy, long range strike aircraft` like the SU-27. Mirage 2000-5 is way too expensive, forget about this plane. The FC-1 really needs to start being manufactured soon. 100-150 of these planes, equipped to fire the 500 Aim-7 Sparrows in the PAFs inventory would still be an improvement in the PAFs capability. I agree the PAF sorely needs to acquire a missile to match the capabilities of the AA-10 Alamo.

I am not aware that the PAF has attempted to build an AAM. But, with Chinese help I think Pakistan and China can build a version comprable

to the Tomahawk cruise missiles in performance within the next 7-10 years. How? Well, Pakistan recovered intact U.S Tomahawks that lost their way over the featureless dessert terrain of Pakistan when the U.S fired Tomahawks at Osma Bin Laden in Afghanistan. These missiles are being taken apart in Pakistani R&D establishments even today. I`m sure Chinese guidence systems and missile experts are keen on and are already collaborating with Pakistani scientists in deciphering the secrets of the guidence system of latest version of Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Dear Sir:

Your in-depth analysis is indeed inspiring. There is no denying the fact that Pakistan`s war will be a defensive war and hence must emphasize credible, efficient, and accurate delivery systems. While the citizen`s concern about expenditures on defense is understandable, the former`s perception of the military-industrial complex is incomplete and incorrect. The question to ask is whether the benefits accruing from investing in these technologies and capabilities is greater than the costs over the long run? While a closed defense industry`s benefits over the short-term may be questionable, an open, competitive military industrial development complex has the power to generate spillovers that can vastly and powerfully influence the civilian sector for the better. While my argument is a laymen`s one, vast crossovers in technologies between the civilian and military sectors are evident in all developed economies: The same factories that produced consumer goods were geared to produce war supplies in times of need and in times of peace military supply factories are transformed into those producing nonmilitary goods. Lastly, ethics and morals aside, the products of the military-industrial complex are no different than products produced in any other sector of the economy and hence capable of earning economic rents. The current regime`s stand on R&D is encouraging and hopefully a budding one. The military industrial complex, if capable of earning a postive return, keeping in mind the tremendous beneficial spillovers it can create, is and will not be a wasted effort. Thank you for a vastly informative article.

I would like to say that pakistan is hell bent on destroying itself by trying to compete with india in defense and is possible other fields. It is possible with the size, economy under present circumstances. Certainly no, Does Pakistan`s GDP will improve ten fold or its going to alleviate it poverty if it annexes Kashmir, No. Does pakistan`s economy going to change substantially if it controls the access to Central Asia, No. No Company would like to build a gas or oil pipe line unless and until it ships a subtantial amount to India. Equally the trade isn`t going to be substantial. The unruly people of Afghan who couldn`t be civilized for centuries is going to be civilized by pakistan on the name of islam, no. Pakistan knows it very well that it couldnot compete with india under any circumstances then why are these demagogues bent on preaching the poor people against India. All I want to say is that its high time that we should wake up from hibernation and live in the real world and bring the country to prosperity.

Bismillahirrahmaanirraheem

Abdul

A very good article indeed. Mr.Amir does a good job of giving those people an answer who say that Pakistan is spending too much money on defence.

Bye Bye

Hello Neighbours,

As an Indian, I was very happy that India tested the nuclear devices. However, I am suprised why you guys cannot understand that the majr threat to India`s security is from China. Please don`t get me wrong, and I don`t want to ruffle any feathers when I say that India does not need nuclear weapons to defend itself from Pakistan.

As a couple of you have mentioned, India does have more resources and hence access to more conventional weapons, than Pakistan could ever have.

I mean if Pakistan had exploded the bomb, before India did, and cited that it felt threathened from India, then I could easily understand. So why is it so difficult to understand India`s position ?

I also want to take this opportunity to inform my dear neighbours, about certain truths about muslims in Inda. You see, its human nature to point out all the follies of a person or a country without considering the achievements. Did you people ever consider, that despite having an overwhelming majority of Hindus, India choose to remain secular. Is there any country in the world that has a overwhelming muslim population, and yet it chooses to be secular ? If so please post it, cause I would reallly like to know.

You guys just heard about one Babri majsid, and deemed the whole country to be fanatical. Did you even pause to consider, that India has made special laws for its muslim subjects, that preserve the muslim culture. Muslims in India, DO NOT follow the India Civil Code, they follow the Muslim civil Code.

There is no other minority which enjoys such a status. Muslims in India, enjoy rights that are not given even to the Hindus. The Hindu Marriage and Succession law was changed, however no one touched the Muslim law of divorce, despite a lot of resentment from Muslim woman, who suffer, because of that law.

What is the point of all this, with respect to the current topic, ie the Defence of Pakistan ? The point is that a lot of Pakistanis look at India, as a Hindu state, that is waiting to take over your nation. This perception is propogated by the media of the country. However the ground realities are in fact very different. And once there realities are looked at, a lot of Pakistanis will change their hostile attitudes towards India, thereby reducing tension. Once this happens, Pakistan and India need not spend bilions of dollars, buying/creating weapons of war.

Sincerely,

Anshu Dewan

dear Pakistanis

hi ! I am an Indian and I found the article quite interesting.from the replies and from the article,its quite obvious that u guys think that India wants Pakistan destroyed.The Indian point of view is quite the same in the sense that we think Pakistan does not want India to prosper ,it wants to break up India by encouraging terrorist movements in Kashmir,Punjab ,NorthEast etc.

The nuclear tests which have already taken place have added a new dimension to the conflict.

I would like to tell all the people who read this ``India will never ever indulge in a nuclear attack against Pakistan``We conducted the nuclear tests because 99 % of the indian population wanted it and we didn`t like the idea of the west telling us what to do an what not to do.Those of u who watch tv must have seen jubilant crowds burning US flags

On the other hand,indians who watched tv saw pakisani crowds burn indian flags.

India and pakistan have thousands of years of common history.it is sad that the last 50 years have been so bitter that the two countries hate each other .

somehow i feel that the indian sub-continent is cursed.Poverty,illiteracy,terrorism,over population,environmental degradation.religious fanaticism,a bankrupt political leadership-u name all the evils of the world an we have it.

on top of it, neighbours u dont wanna live with.

it is said the days on which India an pakistan were created was considered inauspicious by the astrologers.``days cursed by the stars``

will anyone out there disagree with me ?

Very good article Amir, and you do a good job at

going through the options available for Pakistan.

You mentioned that Pakistan has obtained some helicopters from Russia for Military use, I was not aware of that, could you give more detail about types etc?

You give very detailed view of the way from here and to the future, but seem only to be dealing with Air Force and to some extend the Navy. Army is the part of Pakistani Armed forces that is largest, and takes up most of the budget. If you have any information about how far the Al-Khalid 2000 MBT plans have come, could you please include that?

I read a report some time back that Pakistan started out working on a AAM long time back, and that some success was gained, but the program was ended due to pressure from US. Any news on that program or other programs currently under planning for production of AAM.

Pakistan have little or no long range Maritime

capability. Ok, we do have the Orion, but no long range bombers for maritime (or others for that sake) role. Obtaining Tu-22 from Russia would be a good option, if they would sell. Chinese copies will probably be what Pakistan have to go with though.

You also mention in your article :

`` It is worth mentioning that some of the aircraft PIA is retiring, such as A300s, F-27s and even B-747s, could be used very effectively by

Pakistan Air Force and Navy to provide extremely long range maritime operations, transport capability and air-air refueling.``

This seem like an excellent option.

The harpoon, in addition to be placed on ships and submarines, should be adapted to a coastline defence role, however this might be a problem because of limited numbers of these. Chinese silkworm is a extremely capable missile aswell, and could be used in this respect. (Much the same way Iran has deployed them.)

Like you said in one of the replies, Pakistan has sold light aircrafts to several other countries, however more agressive export should be sought. Why not sell SAMs like Anza and MBT (whenever those come into production) to obtain hard currency?

W`salam

Shoaib

Thank you for a very informative article. I agree with you completely that the defense industry of Pakistan has be completely indigenous. Unfortunately that is about all that I agree with regarding the spirit of your article. Please allow me the liberty to express myself candidly.

I consider myself to be a Pakistani, and that means that I would readily contribute my services for the benefit of my country. (And this is true of all of my friends too). However, that does not mean that I should agree with the policies of the powers that be in Pakistan.

Case in point: Pakistan has a low middle-level per capita income, however, most of the statistics that measure the quality of life in Pakistan are equivalent to those of sub-Saharan countries with per capita incomes factor of three or more smaller. This is predominantly due to the huge and unregulated defense budget of Pakistan.

The question is why does this happen? Indian threat is real, and over the years the arms race in the region has escalated to a ridiculous level. India can afford a substantially higher defense budget than us because of its larger GDP, and it is even conceivable that Pakistan is being intentionally led along the same path that took the Soviet Union to its demise. But do we have to be stupid?

Realistically our needs are entirely defensive. A sane Pakistani should not entertain dreams of invading India, we need to ensure that any aggression against us is properly answered and very costly for the aggressor. That I think should be the basic philosophy of our armed forces.

But I think that some within the top echelons of our armed forces are unfortunately motivated by something else. Even at their most honest monetarily, they dream of a greater Pakistan, a revisitation of the marauding attacks of Mahmood Ghaznavi and Muhammed Ghauri. We are dealing with a phenomenon much akin to the dreams of Greater Serbia that led to the Balkan bloodbath. To compound this problem, our counterparts on the other side of the border also have such people. It would be an understatement to call this situation insane.

Yes, Pakistan occupies a potentially strategic place on the globe. However, it is entirely a lack of imagination on our part that we interpret that only militarily. One could for example also have used the geographical location to reap some economic advantage over the past decades. The reason that did not happen was because of the linear thinking of our leadership and also because of the turbulent start of Pakistan. However, there is no reason why we should extend that into the future. We can and should undergo a paradigm shift in our identification of where our strengths lie, and what our objectives should be. If a country like Switzerland can survive intact smack in the middle of the two bloodiest wars in human history, I am sure Pakistan can follow a similar example as well.

You quoted Iqbal, but you neglected to consider the masses of Pakistanis who live in utmost poverty. Why is it that realistically conceding the military superiority of others is not acceptable, but allowing a vast portion of our people to live like animals is? Do they not also ``bow before others`` each and every day of their lives? Does that not destroy our national pride?

I think the reason is that a lot of us live in the fool`s paradise of the military ``accomplishments`` of our ancestors. Iqbal too suffered from that delusion in his youth, India was under a colonial rule, and Muslims needed anything that would give them a semblance of pride. When the present and the future did not provide it, the only recourse was the past. I hope we grow out of this very quickly, Pakistan is a reality, which by the very process of its creation, has started a new chapter that should hopefully be unhindered by spectres of the past.

There are a lot of wars to be fought within Pakistan, the daily and continuous toll of these wars is far greater than any external wars we can even imagine. Hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis die or are affected every year because they do not have access to even the basic health and nutritional requirements of a human being. How many people is that in 50 years and how many more years should we continue to go on that way? And there is the rising storm of illiteracy, fanaticism, poverty and paranoia. Is this what we want to protect through our huge defense budget?

What is needed is balance, and a rational look at our priorities. The military is, and should be treated as the option of defense when all else fails. It is not the most important organ of the state and it should not be aggressive, period. All of our differences with our neighbours can (and should) be solved through diplomacy.

As I had said special steel (these have controlled elements) that meet the specific tensile and heat properties that are required for jet propulsion system.

Just because the name of the company is Quality Steel does not imply that they make the quality of steel that would be useful for military purposes. During Z.A.Bhutto`s time a Special Steel plant was put up but given that it was operated by the public service, neither the quality nor quantity has been maintained. The country can hardly meet the steel requirement of it munitions plants.

The question, on the fuel, is not what is currently available in Pakistan but the capability to manufacture it locally (advanced propulsion systems - solids, liquids, hybrids, etc.).

Mr. Husain,

Revenue leakages are the fact of government and corporate entities all over the world. This does not mean that the current resources an entity has it should not use it efficiently. Yes if the government is able to raise more resources then the absolute rupees available to defence may increase but allocating 40% of all revenues to defence is a high cost in view of the current socio economic condition of the citizens of Pakistan. This is why I say it is Ghauri against food currently. Lets improve Food (this is allgorically speaking) conditions and then go for Ghauri.

As far as Pakistan`s capability of aircraft manufacture is concerned, it is importing parts from China. In fact the deletion program of the aircraft has only reached 45%. We are no more than assemblers rather than manufacturers.

To operate aircrafts we need fuel, parts, and munition. We import fuel, parts and munition. I don`t see how, given that we are already running a trade deficit of billions of dollars come up with resources to fight a war. May be we can machine parts, but then we need high quality steel. Where in Pakistan are we manufacturing high quality steel that would suffice us in quantity during the war. Where are we going to get the fuel, locally (we are not talking about motor gasoline but aviation kerosene).

Military development, I agree has contributed to commercial products, but please what % of commercial products were military byproducts. Lets not kid ourselves. The multiplier affect is not more than 0.1.

Quran will also quote to you Sulah Hudabia. This gave Muslims a chance to develop their economies and administrative base, education and social conditions which enabled them to conquer and manage Mecca.

the pakistan military, the one national institution on which we have spent most of our national wealth, has done more damage to its own people (closely followed by the damage it has done to afghanistan) than to any `enemy`. continuing to spend more money on it doesnt make sense.

also, `national pride` (whatever that means) does not have to be linked to how `good` or `big` our military/military capability is. these are very destructive and violent criteria for judging a nation`s worth and we should think beyond that. there are many other areas we can work on, even as a poor country, to set an example in the world.

and, i would appreciate not being told to find alternate citizenship because my views differ from the author`s. pretty fascist, wouldnt you say (coercing people to go to another country because they dont agree with a military build-up)?

Both India and Pakistan are ``eating grass`` over
Kashmir. That drives everything in both countries. We in Pakistan should take the lead in
unilaterally diffusing the Kashmir issue. Let the
Kashmiris fight for their own independence, pursue
open trade with India and become an economic powerhouse. Pakistan cannot afford to go on and on
and on like this ....

If we are to exist and prosper in the next fifty years, it will be based on knowledge based technological edge. Definitely not on military edge. (I am swayed by your `indigenous` argumrent-- but not enough)

Without being Machiavelian, there is something to be said about accepting `temporarily` hedgemony. With the time bought, it should be full speed ahead for accelerated development on technological and commercial fronts.

Note what two economic giants Japan and (W) Germany achieved in the fifty years after their surrender. Spared of Arms expenditure, how they pulled themselves up from their socks.

With renewed dedication and focus on technological edge we can reinterpret Iqbal

Koi andaaza kar sakhta hai ooskay zor-e-bazu ka
Nigah-e-mard-e-Momin say badal jati hain taqdeeraqin

I whole heartedly endorse Rehan Rizvi`s point of view. The imbalance we need to correct is that between military spending and social development expenditure. The greater threat to Pakistan’s national security is the absence of human and economic development, and good governence. What is needed is internal security, a war on economic, social and political decay, if you will. The overwhelming majority of the people of Pakistan don’t have the basic necessities of life: access to potable water, basic healthcare & nutrition, education and jobs. I could state all the depressing human development indices, but I am sure you are aware of them. The procurement, or indigenous development, of the latest and greatest military hardware doesn’t improve any of these basic necessities. Pursuing the course you suggest merely exacerbates an already pathetic situation. If we don’t provide the basics, there will be nothing to defend from any external threat. India faces similar problems and has no intention to take on more of the same by occupying Pakistan.

The loss of East Pakistan is no ones fault but ours, and ours alone. India merely capitalized on a situation that we created thanks to the arrogance of the politicians and people of West Pakistan. If I were India, and I wanted to destroy Pakistan, I would continue to force Pakistan into an arms race that bleeds it dry economically. Even though Pakistan’s total military expenditure is less than India’s, per person, Pakistan spends about 4 times what India does. If we continue with this escalation in spending we are sure to slide into an abyss. This strategy proved to be highly successful for the US against the USSR. At the end of the cold war there was no USSR left.

It’s about time we woke up to the reality that we can never achieve military and economic parity with India. What is need is for us to put our house in order by setting our priorities straight. Establish peaceful relations with our neighbors through diplomatic and economic ties, reduce the military expenditure and fund social sector development with the savings.

For me, national pride is not a matter of who has more bombs and rockets. I am proud to be a peace loving Pakistani.