Strategic Depth at Home

Thanks Zeemax for a detailed reply. I knew I could count on you. There is not much left in this thread on the previous page.

I thank each and everyone of you for sharing and discussing much more intelligently and peacefully than has been the case with Indo-pakistan and Hindu-Muslim discussions.

Love y`all,

Sameer

DullaBhatti #296 LOL!!

aicha #289 I think they need a special ``Charm Class`` as part of men`s adult education in India and Pakistan. Men would be shown how to hold the door, ingest food rather than spreading it over their hands and clothes, and to present the world with a smile rather than the dead-look of a zombie.

Reply #: 284 SameerJB

``Would you be kind enough to break down the 5 billion dollar foreign exchange reserve ...While East Asian countries foreign exchange reserves are credited to trade surplus and saving rate: Are Pakistani and Indian reserves are accounted differently?``

Well Sameer, any countries genuine reserves are only that portion of the foreign exchange in it`s coffers which has been converted to local currency in `full and final settlement` of that transaction. In other words if you send $1000 to your rupee account, that`s final settlement. However if you send it to a Dollar account, it is not ! However it`s free for the country to use it and replenish it if you want to withdraw your Dollars (Although Pakistan couldn`t with those 12 billion). Both India and Pakistan include non-residents deposits as well as institutional deposits, swap transactions etc in their reserve figures. Pakistan`s reserves held with the Central Bank are $2.6 billion but this figure includes IMF and World Bank disbursements, as well as institutional deposits. So you only need to take these factors into account to arrive at the genuine figure. India`s genuine reserves too are far below the reported figures as they include their NRI scheme, which is huge, in their calculations.

``Why the ruppee value has declined much more during 2 years of Musharraf than previous five years of corrupt democracy``

The previous government had succeeded in keeping the Rupee value under control in a `managed float` despite pressure from multilateral lenders. The IMF terms now stipulate no government intervention and the Rupee value depends purely on demand & supply. So in a net external deficit situation, Rupee only has go one way .. which is South. This is why Rupee actually appreciated by about Rs 5/- per $ after 9/11 because supply suddenly exceeded demand and hundi wallas dumped their holdings in the market.

``.. and why Pakistan deficit has climbed faster during the last two years (due to more borrowing?)?``

If it`s the fiscal deficit you refer to, it`s mainly due to the fall in the Rupee value and resultant additional debt servicing burden/cost of essential imports which cannot be passed-on to the consumer. Also, further borrowing was made under IMF Standby facility.

``Funny, at personal level all the financial planners suggest to pay off credit card debts as quickly as possible whereas at national level, the lenders sweeten the deal if you pay slowly``

Well, you said it. In Pakistan`s case it`s called `getting fiscal space`. During the rescheduled period Pakistan is supposed to use the saved foreign exchange for economic growth and there are plans to completely eliminate foreign debt by 2010. I have seen that plan and there`s nothing concrete in it.

``Another question is: What if Musharraf dies today suddenly of any cause?``

I think you`ve answered this question yourself in the succeeding para. Though I wish he remains in power regardless as Pakistan is passing through a critical phase and more turmoil will be fatal.

Rgds

Zeemax

#291

Malik sahib, it is rumoured that when Americans went to the Moon Mr. Armstrong installed the US flag and his buddies cheered him up making jokes on how they have beaten Russians in the race. As their were laughing they heard a loud jaikaara from behind their vehicle..bole so nihaal....it were couple of Nihangs asking the American team if they got some lassi from earth..one casually complained ``ChandarCharh Singh has been trying to make dahi for 5 years and it does not work here on moon...we thought may eb you guys brought some dahi...atleast enough for jaag``.

Nihangs and aaloos are everywhere.

…sorry….in #199: “yes, there are some women shelters, eg dar-ul-sakoon”….that should be dar-ul-aman…dar-ul-sakoon’s for the mentally handicapped…

urstruly:

“And if you are trying to tell me that Army planned all this just in those 1 hour and 30 minutes and then executed the plan then I would say ``Pak Fauj ko Salaam``.

…no, they didn’t…musharraf had had suspicions/heard from a little bird that bari tind might sack him while he was in colombo….before he left, he had a backup plan in place…

saminashah
I suggest you CONDUCT a macroeconomic course and call it Budhaape Kaa Sahaara 101 and Bhavati Bhiksha Dehi 102

In it you can make a sound economic case for society to engage in unproductive activities of raising families and taking care of their seniors. (since people insist on viewing the issue this way).

The productive folks who are presently getting justly rewarded for avoiding the unproductive activity of raising families, what happens when they grow old and retire?

Who is then going to ensure that monthly cheques arrive from their longterm investments now that they are no longer working? Who is going to ensure they get their social security checks ? Who is going to pay taxes for adequate police so that they donot get mugged in front of their old age homes kept habitable because the government pays for regular inspections, on the way to the pharmacy to pick up their govt-subsidized medicines.

Teach these careerists, its the children who are born and raised by unproductive parents today, who will pay for the safety net when these childless but productive careerists grow old.

Point to Germany and Japan where abysmal population growth rates encouraged by the logic that raising families is economically unrewarding in the short term, is costing their economy and the aging population in the long term.


The reason why these macroeconomic effects are not significant in the US is that there happens to be a whole burgeoning Third World out there which is being allowed to supply the shortfall of productive people without paying for social safety nets for THEIR unproductive. And an economic effect on society is being offset by a sociological effect which is yet to fructify, not because the economic theory is perfectly sound and sustainable in itself.


I am all for growing the economy by rewarding productivity, but there is a law of diminishing returns in being hardnosed about rewarding productivity. There is a breakeven point where the cost of the safety net of social services for the unproductive undoes the good effects of increased productivity and expanding economy obtained by being hardnosed.

(Why waste money on social safety net at all, one might ask? Well, the social safety net makes economic sense because it enables the productive population to continue to be productive instead of wasting productivity on law and order problems, social breakdowns and tensions created by the unproductive)


Some may argue, rewarding productivity increases efficiency of production, so you need less and less people to sustain as much economic activity, so do you really need populaiton growth. Well yes, but can less and less people be expected to buy more and more which is required to sustain a growing economy.

Veeresh yup I have been on that line

you can read an article on it at:

http://members.tripod.com/

Urstruly #279: In reply #268, you stated, ``He said he would go away after October 2002`` In reply #279, you stated, ``The mantra that, he will go back to barracks after 10/02, used to be daily``

You seem to have changed from Musharraf himself stating that he would go back, to a daily mantra. So I will once again ask the same question:

Could you point out when and where he (as per your first reply) said he would go back to the barracks after Oct 2002?

``I never said amendments, I said ``rape`` right out.``

Can you explain how a constitution is raped? The only way I can think of is through amendments or by declaring it invalid and throwing it out. Neither has been done.

``The recent changes in election laws, changing the representative structure in the assemblies, changing the laws on separate electorate;``

These have to be approved by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. The Supreme Court has allowed the govt. a certain level of authority in this regard. The elected govt. can come in and undo these if they want to. On the whole, nearly every Pakistani seems to be supporting these changes. The separate electorate law was put in the constitution through a dictatorship to begin with. What is wrong with removing it?

``the military courts that are being established to persecute political opponents and thus denying citizens the due process of law and constitutional protections.``

The courts being put in place are actually not military courts. The only pure military courts suggested were by Nawaz Sharif, for terrorism. He wanted one military judge giving a decision. The Supreme Court did not allow them. NS was lucky, because had they been put in place, Nawaz Sharif would have himself been under trial in one of these courts. The current courts will have one military judge and two civilian judges. They are not to try political opponents. They are to try people like Shiekh Omer. I cannot imagine you or I ever ending up in one of them. Whether their positive points outweigh their negative points is a separate debate. But once again, the Supreme Court has to clear them and the Supreme Court has once again decided to put them on hold. And the govt. is complying. I personally don`t think such courts are necessary.

Also could you point out who the political opponents of this govt are? The only ones I can think of are the feudal and corrupt of the PPP and PML (and people who have benefited from them) as well as the hypocritical religious right (like Qazi Hussain and Fazl-ur-Rahman, who recruit other people`s kids to fight in Kashmir, but send their own kids to the USA. As someone who was in the military ready to go to Kashmir, if assigned, I am highly offended by the hypocritical religious leadership of Pakistan). All other major parties and groups (MQM, ANP, Tehrek-i-Insaaf/Istaqlal, etc., as well as Joe Pakistani) seem to be supporting this govt.

``And not to mention the handing over of our military installations to the enemy. If he has not become a bigger security risk to Paksitan then what is.``

Have you ever been to the Jacobabad airfield? I have actually been to some of these, ``military installations.`` They are satellite stations that rarely if every get used, except during war. The US is paying Pakistan for using these installations. I am guessing that the US did quite a bit of construction there (I hope they put in air conditioners there, because when I was at one of these places for a day or two, I almost boiled to death). Pakistan has been thinking about converting some of the installations to full-fledged bases, but didn`t have the money. Now, Pakistan maybe able to turn them into a base to defend itself against India better.

The US was actually an ally in this war, and not the enemy. All major security decisions made by Pakistan are discussed with the Chinese leadership, since we are under the protective wings of China. China didn`t have too much problem with this, neither did the Pakistani strategic leadership. Do you claim to know more than them about the security of Pakistan?

And could you explain how giving Lasbela, Jacobabad etc. satellite fields to someone can be a security risk? What is going to happen? Are US helicopters going to take off and attack Lahore? Can you point to one incidence in history where something like that has happened?

``which means 2/3rd of the parliament voted for the proposed legislation and it also passed the scrutiny of the Senate. I fail to comprehend how a law passed through constitutional procedures is Un-Constitutional- just because you don’t like it?``

I didn`t say it was unconstitutional. I said the constitution was condemned, through the amendment. What if 2/3rd of the National Assembly passes a law that everyone named Urstruly should cease to be a Pakistani citizen? Would that be valid? The Supreme Court wanted to undo some of NS`s constitutional shenanigans, but it was stormed by a group of our illustrious parlimentarians.

Horse trading can be stopped through party discipline. As in not letting people back into one`s party, other they have become a lota. Or by not accepting members of other parties into one`s own party. The two parties that indulge in horse-trading are the PML and PPP. Why do they accept the lotas of the other party? And why do they accept their own lotas back into their party?Iftikhar Gillani went from PML to PPP and is now back in PML. Why did the PPP accept him, and why has the PML taken him back?

Constitutional amendments don`t outright say that they are being put in place to control the voice of the, ``people`s representatives.`` The 14th amendment basically disallowed any party member to vote against anything put up by the party leader (like the Shariah Bill). Can you point to any PML members who voted against their party leader in the Assembly, after this amendment? And can you point to any that voted against him and were not disqualified?

``Sharia bill is idiotic or not, it should never be an issue, the issue should be if you do not like the legislation, which has just passed the lower house, what was your (the opponents) political strategy to counter that.``

I didn`t say the coup occured because of the Shariah Bill. I said it is good that it did occur, otherwise Pakistan would be under the Shariah as describe by Nawaz and a body of ulema.

The Shariah Bill was passed after the 14th amendment. At that point, anything NS stated had to be passed by his party members, since they would be disqualified if they voted against it. The purpose of the Shariah Bill was to get the mullahs on the side of NS, and more importantly to give NS the power to pass laws by simple majority, as shown by the following text:

``Notwithstanding anything contained in clauses (1) to (3), a Bill to amend the Constitution providing for the removal of any impediment in the enforcement of any matter relating to Shariah and the implementation of the Injunctions of Islam may originate in either House and shall, if it is passed by a majority of the members voting in the House (my note: this is what NS wanted) in which it originated, be transmitted to the other House; and if the Bill is passed without amendment by the majority of the members voting in the other House also, it shall be presented to the President for assent.``

Do you really think corrupt people like the Sharifs care about public welfare and the ways of Prophet Muhammad? Do you think Pakistan was a constitutional democracy in the 90s? Was it becoming more democratic or less democratic by suffocating the voice of the MNAs through the 14th amendment and by reducing a bill passing vote from 2/3rd majority to simple majority.

Pakistan was a civilian dictatorship (under NS and BB) then and is a military dictatorship now (under Musharraf). Which dictatorship is better? Take your pick. You know where I stand. But please do not try to convince me that Pakistan was a constitutional democracy under NS and BB, or going in the direction of becoming one.

Idly channel surfing a short while ago I stopped to watch a documentary on PTV World about a steam engine train ride on a railway line that has seen better days (ballast has almost vanished, and the tracks are sitting on old wooden sleepers that have sunk back into the bedrock) from Peshawar to Landi Kotwal/Khorum border . . . en route they show a station called Shahgai (Fort) where you suddenly catch a glimpse of a jatha of Nihang Sikhs with their Nishan Sahibs, on horseback, weapons et al . . . and the signage for the railway halt (not platform) is kind of handwritten in English, Urdu and Gurmukhi.

Have anybody here on chowk been on this railway line?

Nihangs are a unique (violent??) Sikh phenomenon, and I was not aware that they were resident anywhere other than in India. And seeing the Gurmukhi signage was even more amazing.

Any inputs on this from anybody? The documentary was made by M/s Bhatti & Hashmi, with narration by Malik. Oh well.

They use baltees. So did Connie Stevens.

Before I get to my debate with Omair, I would like to make two comments made on Interact:

1) Pakistans forex reserves are at a all time record:..FALSE!, It`s a form of Creative mis reporting, Pakistan introduced the practice done in many other countries during the Musharraf govt, that is to include the Reserves of Various Banks operating in Pakistan and add that to the total, the reserves obviously doubled when they were included. Also I believe Shaukat Aziz is the son of Aziz Ahmad, ZAB`s Foriegn Min I believe?

2) When NS passed the anti defection amendment. It didnt stop him from buying of people. In The Frontier Mehtab Abbassi bought of a ANP Minority MPA, with a cabinet berth. When the ANP filed a case against him, he was disqualified, he appealed and got the whole thing bogged down in the courts, while he continued as a Minister, and to be safe he filed to contest the byelections. The Amendment didn`t stop people from filing to contest again. Another point, is how can parties which are undemocratic (as almost all are in Pakistan) from disqualifying people, who may be following their conscience( Mian Azhar, Kasuri and the original core Hum Khyalys)



Now Back to my cabinet argument with Omair:

Imrans a Dictator..simple fact, and yes he has matured a lot since his 97 rout, and I don`t deny his party will win the odd seat. The Quality of his new party blood leaves much to be desired, he has Mian Sajid as his Punjab Chief( a GM Khar friend in the 70`s..I think thats sez it all!)..in the Frontier he has (Mohsin Ali Khan, who`s wheeling dealing ways in the Frontier are well known, as well as being a representative of a wealthy elite which usually is in govt in some form or the other), in Sindh he has Pervaz Ali Shah, and in baluchistan a relative of Nawab Joegazai ( again none of these people stand out for being evry competent)

Asfandyer Wali is a professional politican, but a principled one, he has never served in any Cabinet, and never made a aggressive push for Power, which is not to say he couldn`t. He also has suffered for ideals, he was horribly tortured during ZAB`s time, I believe as Ardeshir Cowasjee said..he had his toe nails extracted, the man is a National Leader not a simple Chief Min...similairly Afrasiab was horribly beaten by the FSF, and despite that went on to top his masters exam from prison, in effect both are people who have proven their belief in their convictions. The need for people with grass roots understanding of problems is essential, e.g, Minister of SAFRON( the Tribal and Northern Areas), in NS`s time was Majeed Malik, now regardless of how competent he is, what wiuld a retired General from Chakwal know about the problems of the Tribal Belt? Simialirly Mush got the token Pashtun ..Abbas Sarafraz ( he`s spent his whole life in Karachi and is a Mush drinking buddy) ..now what would he know again about the Tribal areas?...or even the northern areas?

Omer Asghar Khan, I am deeply disappointed with as a Minister, him and Zubeida Jalal both represented the successful NGO crowd which achieved much in very tough environments..but their performance as Ministers was ineffectual at best. For that reason I can`t really see why he should be a Governor...his father`s also been over hyped, and is long past his prime..if you are going to consider him, then what about Sherbaz Mazari?(Baluchi a well respected one as well)

Mubarak Ali is a fine individual, do read up on him, I like Pervaiz Hoodhboy, and he probably would be an excellent VC, but he has definite potential. Why not consider in Sindhi`s Sajjad Ali Shah or Mukhtar Junejo (Chief Election Commisoner who disqualified Tarrar, and was sacked for that?)..Another person I like and I believe was on the verge of joining PTI ..Danyal Aziz..(O yeah Omair you should check out the PTI web site sometime..interestin some of the comments on the web site discussion forumm..sadly the site needs a major overhauling..compared to Tahir Ul Qadris, MQm and Jamiat e Islamis)

Well thats my two cents...:)

tahmed - ``Seriously ... (not Indian though, they are as bad as we are in these matters)``

Tell me aboutit!! If an Indian is ahead of you dont expect him to hold the door for you - you are liable to get a flatnose if you do.

And forget elevators - bound to get elbowed out! Meetings and chairs - place a firm hand on the chair you are about to sit on - otherwise do it at your own risk !!

Smalltalk - ``do you know java`` or ``greencard??`` - ``what??`` and you will be talking to yourself.

: ) ofcourse I am exaggerating and digressing - couldnt help it !!

``Seriously ... (not Indian though, they are as bad as we are in these matters)``

Tell me aboutit!! If an Indian is ahead of you dont expect him to hold the door for you - you are liable to get a flatnose if you do.

And forget elevators - bound to get elbowed out! Meetings and chairs - place a firm hand on the chair you are about to sit on - otherwise do it at your own risk !!

Smalltalk - ``do you know java`` or ``greencard??`` - ``what??`` and you will be talking to yourself.

: ) ofcourse I am exaggerating and digressing - couldnt help it !!

saminashah #280 to Fuzair ``Well, actually a lot more passes for Women Studies; are you familliar with Luce Irigaray, Elaine Showalter, Kate Millett, Fatima Mernissi, Julia Kristeva, and Helen Cixous? Are you familliar with Shoshana Felman`s deconstruction of the principle of ``logoscentricism``? ``

I am impressed!! I am an obvious illiterate on the subject of Women`s Studies, although I have heard the song ``I am woman, hear me roar, in numbers to big to ignore`` or something like that. Does that count?? Seriously though, for the Pakistani male, it will take a couple of generations and exposure to other cultures (not Indian though, they are as bad as we are in these matters), to understand how issues like spouse abuse and gender inequality in day to day life (e.g. washing dishes, running corporations) are set right quickly once women are no longer dependent on men for physical or economic security.

A good start in Pakistan therefore would be to change divorce laws so that the woman gets 50% of the chappies assets plus future earnings (something along the lines in the US). Maybe this is something to pass along to folks in Pakistan. I know an Indian ex-friend of mine (this incident made me change my opinions on him) who tricked his wife to accompanying him back to Bombay where he divorced her (thus avoiding US divorce laws), and then came back to the US with her passport with him. The wife of course managed to come back and take him to court in the US.

Zeemax # 283 ``They have never understood and they never will. But we`ll keep on. Nothing will deter us.``

Nothing will deter you from what ? What`s your vision for Pakistan ? What do you think are it`s most 5 most pressing issues in order of priority ?

Thanks in advance.

Zeemax: Would you be kind enough to break down the 5 billion dollar foreign exchange reserve that many of the Musharraf supporters are pointing out as a feather in the cap of Shaukat Aziz? What is your assessment of Shaukat Aziz? I believe he is a nephew of Sartaj Aziz and had been very close to Sharif brothers in the past.

While East Asian countries foreign exchange reserves are credited to trade surplus and saving rate: Are Pakistani and Indian reserves are accounted differently? India does make billions of dollars per year from IT related trade but IT alone does not account for 40-50 billion dollars Indian reserve (wouldn`t it be nice if India pays off 20-30 billion dollars of their debt in one day out of the reserve. Is it possible, if all the reserve is held by the government?). Similarly in the case of Pakistan, IT related exports create miniscule amount of foreign exchange, trade deficit, budget deficit and a total of about 10 billion dollars exports against 12 billion dollars imports per year can not put 5 billion dollars in reserve. Is this mostly remittance or part IMF bailout money currently in the bank until paid as interest on the loans? The private foreign currency accounts were once 11 billion dollars which previous governments (including my few thousand dollars) used up through borrowing from the banks and then banned withdrawals in the form of foreign currency because there was not anything foreign left in the banks. Now it may be again 3-5 billion dollars according to the new scheme of foreign currency accounts.

The other question is: Why the ruppee value has declined much more during 2 years of Musharraf than previous five years of corrupt democracy and why Pakistan deficit has climbed faster during the last two years (due to more borrowing?)?

Similarly, the benefit of 1.2 billion dollars from the rescheduling of the loans by EU is 1.2 billion dollars if paid in 30 years, like mortgage. Any attempt to pay off faster, or failing to pay the minimum cuts sharply into 1.2 billion dollar windfall. Funny, at personal level all the financial planners suggest to pay off credit card debts as quickly as possible whereas at national level, the lenders sweeten the deal if you pay slowly, with assurance of making the minimum payment in time.

Another question is: What if Musharraf dies today suddenly of any cause? Who will be the CE, President? Such is the working of this greatest leader since Jinnah that the path to any systematic power transfer is intentionally blocked because it might challenge his authority. Reminds me of another ``great lader``, Aurangzeb killing his 2-3 brothers and blinding another.

The downfall of NS is attributed to the power hungry Musharraf and not Shariah bill, no matter how much one detests Sharia bill.