Why Bush Will Fail in Iraq

Tahmed

Articulately as usual we agree to disagree, I guess its our hope for a different Utopia. But again lets hope your positivism is right. I am not a pessimist but sometimes this world turn us into one.

As usual I Agree and DISAGREE about your view of Yassir Arafat, but thats another long debate for another time :)

One thing that I have learned from my exchanges at chowk that one should be less judgemental, I mean if we loose ourselves in emotional derailments and resort to namecalling and general ``Naray Bazi`` we do become the examples of how things go wrong so easily in our region. Out emotionality has a lot to answer for. ( I think you would know the episode when I refered to you by an American Psuedo-name.)

Regards

Syed Ali

# 12 TAhmed

``Whether or not this will result in Iraq becoming the first Arab democracy (hallelujah!), remains to be seen. And whether this Arab democracy will lead to Saudi Arabia becoming plain old Republic of Arabia (with the Saud`s being kicked out) remains to be seen. If Bush fails to accomplish that, then no doubt the question will make this a major failure in his presidency.``

Here`s an analogy: You see a poor, starving man. You give him money so that he can feed himself. He burns his money on a movie, and is still starving. So who failed? You or the guy you tried to help? Thing is, he blew it.

Same case in Iraq/Arabia. If Arabs fail to develop into republics with consensual government and rule of law, THEY fail. They are responsible, not George Bush. They blew their chance.

Foreign Minister Abba Eban said: ``Arabs never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.`` Will it be different this time?

Cordially,

OM

P.S. couple of quotes from Khomeinei

1. ``All of our distresses are caused by America.``
2. ``Our entire misery is by the hand of America.``

http://www.islamicdigest.net/id5/article.php?sid=1388

The fact that Bushie2 is a heretic is not offensive in and of itself. Nor would any literate person today ever accuse the protestant churches of having any dogma. I mean come on... THEY don`t even know what they believe. The protestant churches except in the developing world (where they still accept the bible as God`s word) are losing membership so rapidly that they will soon be extinct. And the sooner they are put out of their misery the better. This homosexual ``marriage`` flap might be the last nail in the coffin.

No the Bushie2 dementia is offensive because he is using the dopey American taxpayer to bankroll the murder and mayhem in the Middle East. This is not being done on he basis of any TRUTH but rather a misbegotten biblical translation.

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Bushie2 will fail in Iraq because the American Empire is in fast decline. The dollar has been falling in value for years now. The effects of the stock market crash continue to melt jobs away as the nation`s deficit reaches dangerous historical highs.The world`s only super power (with a very small p) is presently spread thin militarily around the globe.

Bushie2 is a ``born again Christian.`` One of the main tenets of this mistaken offshoot of Christianity is it`s Biblical misread reagrding the State of Israel as ``God`s Timepiece.`` This slavish devotion to Israel even under the brutal killer Sharon is what led to the incursion into Iraq. Bushie2 is just following the dictates of Israel. Money is no object when it comes to Israel and the suffering and death being rained on the Palestians falls on deaf American ears. Neo-cons now control the American press, radio and the Bushie2 administration.

This may be the straw though that breaks the camels (America`s back)

A sideshow to all this is Calif. The political upheaval in California should be watched carefully as it may signal the beginning of the end. Here a once prosperous State is felled by the exodus of high tech to India,China and who knows where else, uncontrolled immigration and democratic politicians giving away the candy store by creating gargantuan debt. The people have risen up and embraced an action movie star to save them.

Bushie2 is a fan of Arnold.....another reason he will fail.

wajahat #56 Thank YOU for sticking to the ``terms of engagement`` as you put it. I think it is clear that we are not that far apart in our views.

On (a) money flowing from US to Iraq: Two comments: First, you implicitly agree with me that this is happening. Second, you say that this was unanticipated by the Bush administration. That may or may not be true (who can prove motives on anybody`s part? and in either case, Bush gets points taken off because he either knew and didnt tell, or he didnt know and should have). It is also undeniably true that a major argument of those who opposed the war was that this was a war for financial gain.

In any case, my original case for this war (the article I wrote before the war that you so bitterly opposed at first) was that it would be good for the Iraqi people. I think you will agree that on this point of money flows, the war has indeed been good for the Iraqi people.

Add to this the following: US expenditures in Iraq are being watched like hawks by the congress, press, public watchdogs, press. Saddam on the other hand stashed literally truckloads of dollars, spent billions on extravagant palaces and military. Thus: not only is the money flowing from the US to Iraq, there is far greater transparency and accountability then there was under Saddam. (Even the water has started flowing again - to the Marsh Arabs in south of Iraq, another people who were brutalized by Saddam). Iraqi people score extra point.

As for Bush grovelling before the UN, as you say: surely you (who dont seem to have any liking for him) should see that as an extra point for you as well. More seriously, this may get Bush to become more multilateral than he was prior to the war of important issues like the environment.

On (b), i.e., the Going out of Business of Saddam and Sons, Inc.: I think we both agree that this is a good thing. You express concerns about the ``white race`` and return of colonialism. I dont share that concern. The ``white race`` is rapidly disappearing due to low birth rates. Concepts of nationality are being eroded due to unprecedented population flows, largely from third world countries to the west. The US is rapidly transforming into a multicultural society, with important areas already being multiethnic and whites having become a minority in California. Technological changes have given rise to common global issues (like global warming, pollution, land and sea animal extinction) as well as opportunities (in health, manufacturing processes, services). You look at the past when you worry about colonial empires and white race domination. I suggest you look at the future. And the future is of an increasingly homogenous world population and culture.

And the Iraqi people come out ahead here as well. The Bush adminstration is under the gun now to show results in terms of democratization of Iraq. Thus, for the first time in history, Iraq has free press now. Congressmen (many of them political foes of the Bush adminstration) are keeping a close eye on the Bush performance here, as are the Europeans and the world press. This is a lot better than in any other arab country: arafat clings to power after decades, not allowing fresh blood to emerge (his second prime minister is also on the verge of resigning).

Anyway: long post. We can agree to disagree on any of the above. No big deal.

and please dont strip me of my pakistani nationality (as you do) on account of supporting the Iraq war. :-)

Thank You for your response and I will endeavour to stick to your terms of engagement

``(a) money is flowing from the US to Iraq , NOT from Iraq to the US as was conventional wisdom prior to Saddam`s removal thought would happen. ``

Occupational hazard, one of the misestimates of the US junta. Wolfowitz clearly stated Pre-War and so did rumsfield in his various pre-war nostalgias that Iraq will pay for itself in no time. It is obvious that they felt clearly that this was the case. However reality has changed drastically and Bremer admits that Iraq will require a huge amount of investment. Already the US Administration lies about OIL Production and Last month IRAQ Oil Infrastructure was in such bad shape, that it had to import oil(Mostly for Occupation Army uses).

When we are talkin about Money Flow, Did you know that HALLIBURTON , Cheney`s Company is now recieving the largest contracts in the firms history and control all the port refineries. Tony Blair was recently asked in an interview about the status of Iraq Contracts, he admitted that the US Law instates that business contracts from an occupied country will only be awarded to US Firms. But ground uncertainities and political realities have changes the Grand Imperial design. Thus the grovelling US president going back to the UN to plead for forces so he could cut his losses. Infact they are so desperate that they have gotten the Mongolians to send some Army, what an Irony. Turkey has agreed, Pakistan is still on the fence. Everything has a price... And all this because there is a sustainable resistance to the imperialist armies. This resistance is gaining momentum by the minute, you will comdemn violence, but can you not see that Violence is the only language that the Western Imperialist(and not West in general) engages us with.


``(b) they are no longer at the whims of a Saddam and his sons. The Iraqis are clearly ahead in this, and that is why I think that forgetting everything else, US intervention has been very good for the average Iraqi (and check the Iraqi public opinion polls, where 67 percent DONT want the US troops to leave). Those most vocal against the US presence (shia mullahs) are also the ones who could not even enter Iraq (on pain of death) during Saddam`s time. ``

Saddam was a nuisance, he was placed by one of your previous president and your CIA, he halted the development of an Iraqi Democracy in the 60s and 70s which could have made Iraq an example to the entire arab nation. He was also used to declare war on Iran in order to counter insurgencies in Southern Iraq and Rumsfield is on film whilst selling him the WMDS. So if we go by your analysis, And i am trying not to stick words in your mouth per se, Your country creates dictators and then sends the army in to take them out, control the Economy and churn the profits, large contract to the victors, Threatens Neighbouring countries , in this case both Syria and Iran, and when Israel attacks Syria, Condemns Syria to be on the wrong side of history. What a Load of Imperialist, Racist, Bullshit. I am sorry Mr Ahmed and will all due respect it is this Dependence on ``White Man will come and sort it all thinking`` that has clearly degraded us Poletically and Intellectually. Let go Sir of this Pre- Partition thankfullness to the west, they have done us no favours. And they continue to threaten, demean , and destroy us whilst we debate about whether this is true........

PS: The rising resistance in the Shia towns is worrying US more than their Sunni Counterparts. And rumsfield is blaming this on Iran.

Wajahat #50 you ask ``How can you continuously support an Occupation, a Deplorable war ( Saddam was as worst ) and general direction of the New American Orientalist? ``

The response is provided in my earlier post, #12, from where I have cut and paste what I wrote:

``The key question to ask in all this, however, is a bit different, as follows:

What does US occupations mean for the average Iraqi citizen? No matter what you say, two things are for sure: (a) money is flowing from the US to Iraq , NOT from Iraq to the US as was conventional wisdom prior to Saddam`s removal thought would happen. and (b) they are no longer at the whims of a Saddam and his sons. The Iraqis are clearly ahead in this, and that is why I think that forgetting everything else, US intervention has been very good for the average Iraqi (and check the Iraqi public opinion polls, where 67 percent DONT want the US troops to leave). Those most vocal against the US presence (shia mullahs) are also the ones who could not even enter Iraq (on pain of death) during Saddam`s time. ``

I realize that there is nothing i can write that will convince you otherwise. That is fine. All I ask is that if you wish to provide a response, please cut and paste from the above and explain why you reject what I have written. But please no hot air accusations, and no putting words in my mouth.

more light into the origins of creature known as gobber_head around these parts:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-852034,00.html

Monkey that offers hope to the childless
From Mark Henderson, Science Correspondent in San Antonio

A MONKEY has given birth after receiving an ovary transplant in an experiment that brings hope of a family to women made infertile by cancer treatment or early menopause.

hamidm2 #49 You see the glass 95 percent empty, I see it as 5 percent full. And that is at the national and provincial levels. At the local levels, the replacement of centrally appointed deputy commissioners (an institution going back to the time of the mughals) with elected nazims represents a sea-change at the grass root level in Pakistan. Hats off to musharaff for pulling this off despite the bitter opposition of the civil service, once (under Ayub) considered even more powerful than the army.

The fact is that we have had a ``leadership vacuum`` among pakistani politicians (vee need ein Abdul Schwarzenegger, jawohl mein herr!) in recent years. if you consider the two major steps taken to date (democratization at the local levels, and national level - albeit flawed - elections) I think musharaff`s record in terms of introducing democracy is not totally unreasonable.

The real question is: how rapidly do we move down this path? the next major steps being, i think (a) internal party democratization and revival of the mainstream parties under fresh leadership (no more BB or NS), and AFTER THAT (b) democratic election of the president. Indeed, currently we have a real stalemate in Pakistan, with the opposition insisting that the president remove his uniform (a precursor to b).

My concern is that there is no one calling for (a) in Pakistan. After all, all the political leaders in pakistan (religious, exiled prime ministers) have a stake in NOT having (a). Personally, I am surprised musharaff doesnt pull this ace (internal party democratization) out of the pack, and thus have BB and NS out of the way through a democratic process. This would then give rise to fresh faces in secular parties, who could very well then set the stage for full democratization in a few years.

looks like gobber_head decided to sample some home cookin in tattistan during one of his rare jaunts outside chowks naali.

and gobber_head:

try to avoid eating rich food this weekend cause i have a feeling that what you might read about yourself here will make feel like throwing up.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20031010/hl_nm/health_india_dengue_dc_1

Dengue Kills 83; More Than 5,000 Ill Across India

BOMBAY (Reuters) - India`s best monsoon in a decade has triggered a wave of dengue fever that has killed at least 83 people across the country and infected more than 5,100 in one of the worst outbreaks in years.

Thank You for your action Plan (sic) Although I must confess I dont endow the trust you have in the abilities of the TOP GUN President and That Condi Rice who Loves Oil so much she had a Oil Tanker Named after her. But then I do not have your level of Optimism (Called Something Else in one of our earlier Exchanges). And as far as Honest Work is concerned I believe and I am Part of a group of people who are doing some excellent work here in UK against this new brash western imperialism. The Last 3 Marches we have planned through London as an active member of the MCB and Stop the war Coalition have been a huge success and really villified the UK Leadership. The choice we have Mr Ahmed is quite stark, Non-Violent Protest and we are trying our best. Cannot say that we are having any effect on Policy , but atleast we manage to change a few perceptions. The thing is that we have inherited a nation , an idealogy and a series of problems which your generation ignored so vehemently and we have our task cut out. What I would therefore recommend in reply to your challenge, is that we should have some of you flag waving, breast Beating champions of the west and take you to Palestine and show the immense tragedy that is unfolded on the fate on an entire race.

No Hard Feelings, But I must repeat my question, How can you continuously support an Occupation, a Deplorable war ( Saddam was as worst ) and general direction of the New American Orientalist?

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tahmed,

...... jamali might be a nice guy - most hand-picked PMs are ...... but he is a mere fig leaf for musharraf and the world knows that ........... so why go through the charade?......... nobody on islamabad, or anywhere else ,pays any attention to the ``elected`` parliamentarians who have yet to pass a single bill or, for that matter, even have a single session without yelling, shouting and then walking out ............. musharraf, like the generals before him, has made a complete mockery of democracy and we are back to square zero .............. no one believes anything he says, and everyone is hedging their bets ........... according to eyewitness accounts, the police in islamabad ran away while the mullahs tried to burn down melody- why?..... the answer is simple - why should the dig or sp risk his career for a government that might be gone tomorrow ?....... they don`t want to tick off the mullahs because they know that the bearded fools might be in power tomorrow............. so the show goes on ......

........... jamali is just another clown in that circus ............

Good analysis, Mr. Ghori:
The Bush administration will rue the day when it launched its ill-conceived and ill-fated Iraqi adventure. Fortunately, no one believes any longer that the operation had anything to do with WMDs or international terrrorism. There are still a few lal bhujjakkars who believe that the operation was to relieve the Iraqis of their evil dictator and to bring democracy there. That too is a lot of crap. Unless American think tanks are complete idiots - and they are not - they must know that in a free and fair elections the shiite Mullahs will win hands down. The Americans will then have replaced a secular tyrant with theocratic mullahs. If the Americans have figured out how they will prevent Islamic parties to come to power in a democratic election, it must be the closest guarded secret in the leaky DC.
There were no demonstrations to welcome the US troups -except for some show boys brought in to cheer the pulling down of the Saddaam statue - because no one welcomes a conquering army, and that too of a country which had reduced a middle-income level country to an impoverished third world country.
This invasion had one purpose and one purpose only, and that was to redraw the map of the Middle East to America and Israel`s liking. They were hoping that with another secure source of oil, they would have been free of the Saudi thugs` hold on them due to their massive oil reserves. They were stupid! They could have easily coopted Saddaam to serve their purpose. Then it would have been the case of just having another ``our ba$tard``.
God bless America, because only a miracle can help them get out of the quaqmire they have gotten themselves into.

hamidm2 #51 I kind of LIKED the guy (jamali) when i heard him a couple of weeks back. Fat he was, and a dull speaker no doubt (as he himself noted). But then, it was refreshing to hear a pakistani politician talking without bombast. And his answers to questions made good sense and showed the right priorities: focus was on economics, not ideologies or militarism.

The contrast with mushy (whom i had heard a couple of years back) was striking: mushy was the fit commando-type guy talking about all the big stuff his regime had done or was planning to do - talked for maybe 90 minutes, and avoided take any questions. jamali was fat, but kept his speech short saying he wanted to allow plenty of time for questions.

Jamali may have 70 percent fat content, but he has 0 percent ideology in him. That is the kind of man we need. We have no shortage of hot air balloons in pakistan leaders.