Attack in Mohmand the situation has to be seen from the wider angle.this is a global low intensity war that will continue for 100 years and may be more.the pakistani army and its int agencies did use the pashtuns as tools.later the punjabis were also talibanised or islamised.the britishers had taken great care to keep punjab docile and in tight control.now even the punjabis are radicalised.even if these are 5 % of punjabs population its a significant number.now the tools of the int agencies have become autonomous.perhaps a portion of paki int agencies have sympathies with the radicals.there is a linkage definitely.the americans in this case targeted the pashtuns as well as the army.the FC being a largely 98 % pashtun force officered by the army.the aircrafts used and the forces were controlled by the american JTF with Headquarters in Bagram.The whole operation was deliberate.Conceived in a month long or may be longer period.Based on the premise that pakistani elite can stand any amount of kicking.as someone on chowk says this elite are the illegitimate offsprings of east india company.the danger are the non state actors.the good or the bad thing is that they will get stronger than the pakistani state within 5 to 10 years.

Attack in Mohmand the very big diffeence between NATO and USA is that NATO forces in case of many countries regard their mission as a political one.Italy,Germany,France and many others have refused to have anything to do with border operations or with Pakistan.USA on the other hand has a Pakistan specific agenda.The Pakistani government and the Paki army is little more than a bunch of petty US officials , like vasals.The USA is seriously concerned with non state actors.They know that the Paki army generals and the politicians are hopeless.But they view the non state actors seriously.As stated the Paki government and state will stand any amount of kicking since they are masochists and emjoy BDSM.

The US strategy is to divide the state and no state actors.Start a civil war in Pakistan and then finally destroy the country.This may take 5 to 10 years but is a hard reality.

Attack in Mohmand my driver was kidnapped in Kunar Province last month.On release he told me that the hideout where he was held in Afghanistan he saw at least 50 Punjabis.

Attack in Mohmand As I see it this war will continue for another 100 years at least .The same as I thought in November 2003.


16 Nov 2003

AGE OF STRATEGIC ANARCHY

A.H Amin

While human history has continously oscillated between order and disorder , peace and war , the post 9/11 may be said to represent the watershed between the age of strategic stability which started from 1945 and a transition to a many decade ,perhaps century long period of strategic anarchy !

War as a sublime activity has witnessed a stark transition from rationality to madness from9/11 ! The Nero at the apex of the whole exercise is Emperor Bush the Second who more than any Al Qaeda terrorist , has made this world , a far more dangerous place for USA , primarily because of lack of knowledge and a myopic worldview which is based on a very narrow perception of history and human civilisation ! Alas Bush is a teetotaller and does not have that coup d oeil which distinguished great warlords like Winston Churchill reinforced by many pints of finest beverages of Scotland ! Here we have a scenario of a warlord , who has naieve strategic perception and is manipulated by cheap consumerist aides motivated by business interests or narrow beliefs in Christian resurgence or Zionist supremacy ! Thus the age of strategic uncertainty and anarchy !

If Field Marshal Foch's ideas on strategy are to be applied here , all anti American forces , have a grandstrategic opportunity to humble USA at a nominal cost in the entire region between Casablanca in the West till Sakhalin in the East, with additional reinforcement from sabotage missions launched in theentire tract from Los Angeles till United Kingdom ! American interests and American installations are located in such a widespread area that USA with its entire might cannot defend all of its many assets at all times ! Thus the truth in the adage that he who defends everything defends nothing ! Foch's two cardinal principles of strategy applied wisely in this scenario i.e " Economy of Force" and " Denial of freedom of manoeuvre to the enemy" can easily bring USA to a long term strategic grief ! Already some results are evident in many Quixotic Blackhawks reduced to molten metal in the entire deathland between Tikrit and Karbala !

The age of strategic anarchy may thus unfold in the following stages or phases ; i.e (1)Initial attrition of US forces in Iraq,Afghanistan and Korea (2) A period of spilling out of the conflict into new theatres by the USA in search of a centre of gravity like Iran,Syria ,Pakistan,Saudi Arabia.Something like Napoleons attack on Russia or Hitlers Case Blue which envisaged a dualoffensive towards Stalingrad and the Caucasian Oilfields (3) A period of intense attrition in the new theatres chosen by USA (4) a period of USA's exhaustion , something close to Clausewitz's concept of culmination point of a great power and begining of decline of the New Christian Roman Empire of USA (5) A period of exploitation of USA's exhaustion by other major players like Russia,China ,EU etc !

Initial attrition may last from 1 to five years ! Possibly Bush's successor Democratic or Republican may be unable to initiate a policy of disengagement ! The USA is in position of a man holding a wolf by the ears ! It may be difficult to kill this wolf , but it is fatal to leave it ! All that the anti US forces ,open or covert need to do it is to assist the wolf ,create new breeding areas for the wolves , increase their birth rate !

In the second phase of spilling out USA has to suffer greater losses both material and moral ! Greater casualties ! An attack on Iran via Pakistani Baluchistan or via Azerbaijan or via the cosatal Persian Gulf ! A Possible denuclearisation of Pakistan ! A crusade against Syria with an American general walking haughtily till the masoulem of Salahuddin Ayubi in his boots and telling the sleeping Lion of Islam like earlier French generals who occupied Syria after 1918; Salahuddin I have come back to avenge the defeat of Crusaders !



Intense attrition wouldtake place in the next third phase , with either USA destroying all its enemies or arriving at its culmination point ! A start of a period of decline , the ebb of the tide that started gaining strength from WW 1 !

The fourth phase would be either USA's victory , perhaps a Pyhrric one or an ignominous withdrawal ! The Barbarians as theUSA perceives its Islamic enemies wouldthen regroup and counter attack !

The fifth phase would be open exploitation of USA's exhaustion by China and Russia hopefully with a more resolute leader who drinks a lot of Vodka and has zeal and the killer instinct of a Peter the Great or Stalin !

The wholeprocess of these fivestages may vary from anything between 5 years to 100 years ! The stakes are high , the battle field vaster than any other battlefield in human history and the shades too many for the strategists eyeto perceive or comprehend !

The present third world war which started with 9/11 has no centre of gravity,no fixed battlle lines , it is hundred dimensional,no rules , no morality ,no boundaries and no tangible end in sight !

One thing is clear ! USA's cheap consumerist society has a great deal of military muscle but a pathetic strategic vision ! We salute the new age of Strategic anarchy !

The Emerging Threat i think that the kidnapping was a dubious affair . a faux pas of paki agencies as usual . what d u expect from these int guys who failed to detect indian tank division in 1965 and indian move into siachen.

The Emerging Threat i drove through khaibar agency to kabul some days back after having come to pakistan by road.there is no sign of mangal bagh now.only the liquour shops near jamrud have been closed , but for how long.contraband is the livelihood of tribesmen.this man is a planted man with state backing custom desiged to play games with NATO and USA.

The Emerging Threat the man is a 5th columnist designed to make the afridis slaves of punjabis and also to threaten NATO routes for blackmail.the so called kidnap of paki ambassador was also agency orchresrated and a total hoax.every child in afghanistan knew that it was all bogus.i am surprised why paki int agencies are so barren.

30 Days in Afghanistan - Dinner Conversations to add further the average afghan likes to drink and to womanaise .its human . even some talibs i know personally and who were my sub contractors on USAID projects in Helmand and Ghazni did not mind a drink.Charas was Halal in any case.Its Afghanistan's national past time.I must add that in last four years 95 % of guys i had hard drinks with were afghans.they said their prayers also and were not rich but also drank their alchohol.mind you i am living in Afghan area and walking on the street.i was never confined to any compound with rules and curfew regulations.also it is interesting to note that no khalqi or parchami minister of 1978-2002 has any dirty money as the so called mujahids have.drinking has little connection with honesty.

30 Days in Afghanistan - Dinner Conversations i have lived in kabul since 2004.not in a compoun but in a house near shahr e nau.i have found that most afghans like to drink.if they cannot afford foreign stuff they buy industrial alchohol called navazh do shash manufactured in state run factory on jalalabad road . a half litre bottle was 100 afghanis in 2006.This 96 % is heavily diluted and can last for two days to a week if heavily diluted.In 2007 after furor raised by jihadis in parliament the factory was closed .many afghans make desi sharab called " Wattani" in farsi.In police nearly 45 to 50 % people drink.charas is a favourite one and very cheap.US Army and NATO forces are not allowed hard liquor but only beer and wine but they do manage it.Supreme the duty free shop offering very reasonable alchohol rates was banned for most countries excluding some diplomats in October 2006 after propaganda by talibs/hikmatyar for all countries except some diplomats.
I found the pakistanis generally unadventurous not going out of compiunds.But in 2004-2005 i did have some american friends who ventured out defying the curfew and went everywhere.now in 2008 generally most foreigners are paranoid and not leaving their compounds.off course i do not live in any compound as i have my own company.

PPP Isn’t Convinced! Great expectations were placed in Muslim troops of British Indian Army before 1914.German general Von Bernhardi writing in his book "Germany in the future war" hypothesised that Muslim troops of Indian Army would not fight against the Turks.The Muslim troops mostly Punjabi were loyal to British as a rock against the turks.Only the Tribal Pashtuns the Wazirs , Mahsuds and Afridis and the Ranghars of 129th Light Infantry rebelled.Even the Sikhs showed disaffection.As a result Afridi Mahsud Wazir Ranghar and Sikh recruitment was reduced after WW One and the Punjabi Muslims became the majority in fighting arms.Not for fighting well but for proven loyalty against Muslims.Such was the difference that when two Pathan squadrons of 15 Lancers refused to fight against Turks in Iraq it had to be replaced by the Hindu Jat squadrons while the Punjabi Muslim squadron of 15 Lancers stayed loyal.The same was proven again at Jallianwalla Bagh.The only instance of Indian troops refusing to fire against civilians was done by Garhwali Hindus of Garhwal Regiment at Peshawar IN 1930.This is the same pakistani army with the mercenary tradition.little good should be expected from it.mercenaries they were and mercenaries they will remain.

Pakistan is not the land of heroism.It is the land of opportunism and shameless pragmatism.Thats why Bakht Khan was killed by Muslim soldiers from the FF regiment according to its regimental history.Thats why Prince Feroz Shah in 1859 had to seek sanctuary in Bajaur.

Yesterday army chief General Kiani should have briefed secretary defence only . What business does he have of briefing the politicians directly.The question is that minister of Defence or secretary defence instead of controlling the army are controlled by the army.Most of the politicians have served in some military government in Pakistan.Independent spirit was stifled as a policy by all four military governments of Pakistan.Pakistani defence forces are heavily dependent on US/European suppliers for their hardware.The army is a standing regular army instead of an army based on universal military conscription.An attempt by ZAB to introduce a smaller regular army with a wider expandable civilian reserve in time of war like Israel and many European armies was sabotaged by ZAB.The army as an institution has a vast share in the country's economy.

Seein in this situation little dynamism or independence of spirit can be expected from the present political set up already swelled by opportunists joining the coalition.There seems little hope that a leader will emerge who has the statesmanship , the intellect and above all the resolution to say No to the USA.The Unipolar World Order established after 1990 has successfully and without any moral regret successfully attacked and occupied two independent countries Iraq and Afghanistan.It appears that soon Iran will be on the hit list.Big business , banks with huge profits and big interests have already penetrated Pakistan's economy and stock market.Unemployment is on the rise and extremist outfits small in number but force multiplied by ruthless efficiency and fanatical motivation seem to be terrorising the silent majority.Just like 12,000 Bolsheviks held Russia hostage after 1917.A confusion of principle has been introduced by the contradiction between what the state stands for and its linkage with Pakistan's ideology.On the other side is the dilemma of balancing the Indian threat with the US threat and to walk a tight rope in between.Who will perform this extremely difficult balancing act.The military led by its generals mafia seems to have withdrawn but this is only a tactical withdrawal.A suspension of action by the generals.In hunting terminology it is said that once a tiger or a lion tastes human blood it becomes lazy , no longer hunts and prefers human flesh which is far easier a pray.Similarly Pakistan's generals have tasted the blood of their own people.They have been blinded by real estate and mega deals.Its difficult that they would abandon man eating.

The Pakistani politicians main benefactor is the USA , thanks to the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) manipulated by USA they were bailed out.Its outrageously illogical to assume that any Pakistani politician would have an independent outlook.Rhetoric and some cosmetic gestures apart , docility timidity and meekness in front of USA would be rule of the game.

Peace between India and Pakistan is also a mirage.A glance at India's increasing defence and intelligence budget proves that the conflict will continue at low intensity till Pakistan is denuclearised.Every sell out to USA would be rationalised by Pakistani politicians and generals by saying that it had to be done to prevent Indian hegemony.

The USA is a strange ally of Pakistan.On one side its an ally and on the other it is preparing to reduce Pakistan to size.No joke that Henry Kissinger said that to be an enemy of USA is one thing but to be its friend is deadly.The USA has occupied Afghanistan not as a final objective.Its long term strategic agenda includes reducing Pakistan to size on one hand and to use its army as a mercenary just like the British used it against the Turks and the tribal Pashtuns.

A long hard road lies ahead for Pakistan.While Musharraf thoroughly discredited the army by his major policy blunders after 2002 there are many Musharrafs in the waiting in the army.While present politicians have got yet another opportunity to prove that politicians have not failed Pakistan.The challenge is phenomenal.Already the many hopeless intelligence agencies of Pakistan master at killing its own people and failing miserably in war to find out where the Indian Armoured Division was have re-commenced the game of divide and rule and breaking or blackmailing politicians.

This does not mean that the paki generals are invincible.History will take its course.Pakistan will be Balkanised because it is a failed state.This process may take up to two decades.Pakistan's army will outlast Pakistan and the potohar mercenaries will serve the Americans and even the Indians as loyally as they served the brits.


The future is not as bright as many hope and the man eater or man eaters has not been dealt with.Pakistan is sandwiched between a dangerous internal threat basically created by its army's misuse of religion and by a dangerous external threat compounded by a weak economy .One can only say that the remedy in this situation is not the job of a mediocre politician.Statesmanship appears to be sadly lacking and generalship extremely rare in Pakistan's army.May be we should expect a miracle ? But as Machiavelli well said more than 400 years ago " God was neither on their side nor ours".

PPP Isn’t Convinced! all that this man says proves that the paki state is an anachronism and thus not permanent.a haven of crooks.

Where Billions Vanish good article . atta needs to be hanged upside down . what a clown this atta and all those mediocres.hoodhbhoy is right but in pakistan if a man speaks the truth he is hit by stones everywhere , what a hopeless country occupied by army and other thugs.

Prisoner of Conscience good article.while intelligence agencies and law enforcement agencies in paki state are prime narco lords and traffickers why is afridi imprisoned .

tailpiece :--- this is not kashmir , occupation pakistani police kills unarmed young motor cyclist on not stopping at a post in lahore . what a disgrace . pakistan is an undoubted failure.

In the Name of Allah, the Most Merciful taliban are getting stronger every day in south south east , east and south west.its not possible to travel between kabul and kandahar without being stopped by them.with the present force ratio the USA just cannot contain or even destroy the taliban.

In the Name of Allah, the Most Merciful Refers Economist Magazine 1995 --More than 17,000 Russian women were murdered by their husbands , boy friends relatives and lovers.i read this while based in Moscow in 1995.My inquiries reveal that the figures have not much changed.In Pakistan violence against women is lower than many more developed countries.

Student Movement Revisited good article