Evolution of South Asia

Pakistan, rather than looking for Islamic quick fixes, must examine
the geopolitical ground reality without Islamic rose-colored
glasses. These glasses give Pakistan a very distorted view, that by
merely being an Islamic country, Pakistan, in the last fifty-one
years, has become a part of Arabian (i.e. Middle Eastern) orbit.

Why and how Indonesia and Malaysia, despite being strong Islamic
countries, escaped Arabian orbit are important to examine. Unlike,
Pakistan these countries forged out very strong identities of their
own. These identities have also allowed them to create market
economies and alliances with non-Islamic countries that define
ASEAN. The cynics may point that their economies are now in trouble,
but time will prove them wrong. Their proud leaders and identities,
and resilient alliances would allow them to come out of the present
economic crisis even stronger.

The only identity of Pakistan, that the world-at-large recognizes, is
that of "Not-Indian attempting to be Arabian". To see it so, Pakistan
must look and feel beyond Arabian orbit.

For example, if Pakistan considers itself and others accept it to be
part of Central Asia (or middle east), then it must not be part of
SAARC. Such contradictions, contribute to a split personality of a
"Not Indian attempting to be in Arabian orbit".

Pakistan needs to evaluate ground realities of where it belongs and is
accepted. Like it or not, Pakistan is more readily accepted with open
arms elsewhere, than where Pakistan has spent last fifty-one years
trying to be accepted.

It is easy to debate with anyone that if a European Parliament like
body is constituted by SAARC today, then the sub-continent's Muslims will
have greater control and voice, than what they presently have. The
mathematics of electoral process cannot be ignored, even if it was not
obvious to the founding fathers of present day Pakistan. A careful
analysis of Indian elections of the last twenty years (post emergency
period in India) reveal true electoral mathematics and power of
smaller numbers.

BASIC LAWS OF DEMOCRACY: Thus an evolution toward the unity at SAARC
level should be more important to the people of the sub-continent in
general and Muslims in particular. This is based on a firm belief that
democracy - however corrupted by the politicians - ultimately delivers
power to the largest group of small numbers. This law of democracy can
only be violated by abolishing democracy, or by ignoring democratic
law for some time (as in Indira Gandhi's emergency). I would further
assert that it is easier to abolish democracy in a society or a
nation-state where only one group dominates. But in a plural set up of
multiple religions, languages, regions etc., it would be impossible to
abolish entrenched democracy. Indira Gandhi's emergency and its
aftermath have proven this point beyond doubt.

Pakistan may perceive it differently, but present state of Indian
politics should convince all skeptics that Hindus are not as
united as Pakistanis fear. In fact, Hindus never were so united, and
there is no reason to believe it will be different in the future. Thus
a separation of religion and state is not only enshrined but also
assured in "Indian" democracy, both in theory and practice. By this
statement, I am not implying there is no discrimination against groups
of people in India, this is a separate question to deal with.

However, unity of Hindus should not be confused with pluralistic
India. Three political events affected the largest number of people in this
century. These are: Soviet revolution, which has fallen wayside;
Chinese revolution which has changed its course; and poor men's
experiment with democracy -- Indian independence. This experiment has
been growing stronger. It was also the single largest peaceful
transfer of power from the ruler to the ruled, where the rulers were
invited to stay back. Only violence that occurred, was among the
ruled who became the new rulers. Indian political, and governmental
institutions have been finding their own systems and solutions.

SOUTH ASIAN REGION: Neither Pakistan nor India should role-play a
regional leader, until they are leaders. Role-playing a regional
leader of present desolation, and Taliban-controlled country with a
great promise is hardly an accomplishment. The leadership in the next
millennium will be more determined by the economy and ownership of the
market. The larger its economy, and the larger its markets, the larger a leader
would be. The political leadership vacuum in the region should be
collectively filled at SAARC.

SOCIAL PRIORITIES & THE FUTURE: Pakistan should also consider new and
emerging world-order as the world moves into the next millennium.

In this emerging order, the high technology, highly mobile capital,
highly mobile and educated workforce, and globalization shall render obsolete
the old world order dictated by nation-state's political borders and
economies. All this will happen in less than one generation from now,
and great majority of Pakistanis and Indians shall witness this
transition. It is not clear to me what will happen to the countries and
who will be left behind.

Chinese leadership has already demonstrated their priorities. It is
very interesting to note that no one now doubts that China would be
the world's largest market for computers, and that no one even though
true, mentions that China would be the world's largest market for toys
also. Interestingly, the ideology of any variety, an obsession (of
religious variety) with present Pakistani leadership, is uninteresting
to modern Chinese leadership. This does not mean that it is
unimportant to Chinese leadership.

This transition by the leadership of billion people was accomplished
in less than fifty years. A similar transition, although at a slower
pace is happening in India too. In India this change has been forced
by the law of democracy in pluralistic society and also by electoral
mathematics of large group of small numbers. If older generation
Pakistani leadership, even after fifty-one years still corners
Pakistan down to same issues of no peace or trade in the region until
Kashmir is resolved, then the time may have come for post-independence
born Pakistani leaders to give a chance to fresh thinking. A common
axiom of human societies is that when two neighbors have a lot of
common economy and mutual dependency then they also solve thorny
issues, because there is simply too much to lose.

NATION STATE MODEL: Another interesting question for visionary
leadership to ask is how relevant Nation-State borders are today and
would be in the future. Why not create so much economic activity that
the borders become irrelevant. The cooperation, beginning mid
seventies till 1997, between British Hong Kong (before 1997) and
Mainland China has demonstrated to the world that the prosperity
travels, and makes the border very porous and hence irrelevant.

Bombing of Afghanistan and Sudan is another example of what modern
"hot pursuit" shall be, just as bombing of the U.S. embassy in Kenya
and Tanzania is an example of what the terrorism would be. Neither
terrorism, nor their hot pursuit would honor political boundaries of a
nation-state.

Historically, nation-state boundaries were essential to create and
protect the assets in a geographic region of the world. This entailed
creation of schemes of benefits (political, commercial, militaries,
governance etc.) for the people living within the boundaries of the
nation-state. In this period, if you examine, nation-state failed to
contain spread of religions, e.g. spread of Islam, and Christianity,
within the boundaries of a nation-state. Therefore, it is absurd to
think that religious fundamentalism of any type can become the basis
of a nation-state. We can lay blame from here to enternity on any
number of people, but the fact remains that disintegration of Pakistan
into Bangladesh, also proved that nation-state could not be contained
within a religion either. Similarly, the disintegration of Soviet
Union also proved that nation-state could not be contained within a
political ideology either.

Feudalism emerged as the builder and protector of nation-state. Later
industrial revolution made nation-state essential, to organize,
control and protect wealth creation. The Information revolution of the
next millennium shall render nation-state irrelevant. Communities of
interest -living, organizing, controlling wealth creation and
knowledge while simultaneously dispersed all over the world yet linked
together would be the engine that would drive the future societies.

The information revolution, and the future societies are characterized
by high technology, highly mobile capital, highly mobile and educated
workforce, and true globalization. These forces of change, like the
religions of yester-years, can never be contained within the realms of
nation-state boundaries. Ability of India and Pakistan to explode
nuclear devices, precise bombing of Afaghanistan and Sudan by the
U.S. from great distance shows mobility of technology both in cause
and effect, while presence and acceptance of highly educated
Pakistanis and Indians in the U.S. demonstrate people mobility, and
cross-border flow of several hundred billion dollars within a matter
of minutes exemplifies the dawn of information revolution and future
societies, and sadly signals the demise of nation-state also.

Therefore, instead of Islamization, Pakistan would benefit by
developing a vision and leadership to benefit from information
revolution and seed future societies in Pakistan. In my opinion, all
religions of the world, in this scenario must either evolve as
offering personal and spiritual values (a la Hinduism, and Buddhism),
or evolve into refined rules governing modern societies (e.g. Islam,
Christianity, Judaism). One thing is sure a religion must certainly
evolve or else it too shall become irrelevant.