Kargil: A view from Pakistan

It is not useful for the indignant Indian to figure out who it is in Pakistan that is responsible for the Kargil invasion. Is it
the army, or the Sharifs, the lashkars, or the public opinion?

One has to have a compassionate understanding of each of these players for figuring out the unfolding drama. There is no
one script (or if there is one it is not a Pakistani script) and there is plenty of improvisation. This should also take the
edge off the indignation of the Indian: many things Indian, the public statements of the Indian establishment, the media,
the Indian military budget and the Indian nuclear policy directly influence the Pakistani players.

Nawaz Sharif campaigned for peace in the last election, the only prime minister to have done so. He has been vociferous
about trade with India. In the last two years the number of items on the trade list between Pakistan and India have grown
substantially, according to a report by the Karachi Chamber of Commerce. Nawaz Sharif was also a reluctant tester of the
nuclear device.

The Pakistani army is, of course, committed to a war with India. That is its raison d'etre. It was not raised to fight China
or Iran. The Indian establishment has a lot of say in the development of the Pakistan army. The Pakistan military strains
for the achievement of parity with India. The last couple of years the Pakistani military budget has not grown in real
terms. The country is unable to borrow more. The Pakistanis would not have exploded the nuclear device if the Indians
had not. So will they match India if it reduces its military. But now that Pakistanis have followed in the nuclear footsteps
of the Indians they have the confidence of first use of a nuclear device. There are no dearth of officers, ex and serving, in
Lahore and Rawalpindi, who in their war gaming play nuclear tactical strikes as end game.

Does public opinion count? No Indian reader of the Pakistani situation, whether in print or on the airwaves, has yet
commented on the importance of Pakistani public opinion on the question of war. It was crucial in Nawaz Sharif's
decision to test the nuclear device. It was obvious that he gave in to public pressure. The hysterics over the Indian
airwaves palpably influenced our public. There was no audible public response to the Indian test the first day or so. People
were worried about the economic consequences of the test. But as the vitriol in the Lok Sabha poured out so was there a
matching reaction in the Urdu and English newspapers.

The lashkars may be the only Pakistani element that is not affected by Indian attitudes and policies. The lashkars may be
coordinated by the ISI but they have a mind of their own, so says Javed Nasir, ex-chief ISI in his article in The News.
Good luck trying to disarm them. Remember the prime minister accused one of these lashkars for the attempted
assasination earlier in the year. All of them, and the Jamaat, are issuing statements of intolerance towards a roll back
policy on Kashmir. They are part of the army that fought the Afghan war on behalf of the Americans, but the Americans
did not subsequently demobilise this army (the military leaders of South Vietnam are running Vietnamese eateries in the
US). As Ayaz Amir, former senator and columnist with The Dawn memorably put it, the Americans threw us away like
a used condom. I shudder at the thought of what the lashkars may be upto if there was no Kashmir cause.

So with the country prepared for peace, not war, Nawaz Sharif interested in same and the army more under the influence
of civilian control than ever before what gives in the mountains? Obviously this operation has been planned post
Chaghai/Pokhran. Is this a move on the part of an army who did not think through the political consequences (and the
political leadership gave a disinterested go ahead to the cry: we are just taking a hill sir!)? The cabinet has certainly
exhibited magnificent examples of non-thought: the recent legally inexplicable arrest and release of Najam Sethi for
example. But surely they would instantly realize that they would not get European and US support.

Or has the script been written elsewhere? Already the news is full of DMOs figuring out schedules of withdrawal (what
else would they be talking about?); Niaz Naik, Sharif's emissary, talking to the BBC about a pull out; and Vajpayee talking
about a final settlement of issues after the dust has settled on Kargil.