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The peace agreement seems to have broken down:


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The peace agreement seems to have broken down:

Topic started by zeemax on Mar 1, 2008 10:54:48 pm

Bombing in 'Pindi killing a Lt General, the bombing of Levies in Bajaur killing 3 paramilitary personnel, bombing in Lakki Marwat the next day targeting a DSP Police and again the same day bombing the deceased's funeral in Swat killing 50 - mainly Police - and this morning an attack on the Govt sponsored Jirga in Darra Adam Khel killing 25 tribal elders (so far).

Consider the following:

1)The Lt. General's killing was followed by the predator missile attack in Waziristan killing 13.

2)The Pak Taliban accepted responsibility for the Bajaur attack but not the Lt. General. No one knows who carried out that attack. According to eyewitnesses it was not targeted and the bomber disguised as a beggar had been waiting for an army vehicle since morning by the roadside. First he approached a Captain's car in the near lane, but then noticed another car with three stars on it stop in the middle-lane and bombed it instead. This is the hallmark of the Jhangvi/Jaish/Tayyaba groups who take indiscriminate revenge. The army obviously took it to be Taliban and retaliated by the predator (which are now based in Pakistan, not Afghanistan). Taliban hit back with Bajaur and accepted responsibility.

3)The DSP killed in Lakki Marwat had been transferred from Swat just 2 months ago, and belonged to that area. Since even his funeral was not spared, it points to a revenge operation by the Fazlullah militia.

Above points to a deep fray of various groups (to which I have pointed before), but the Pakistan Army is pinning everything on Pakistani Taliban.

The attack on the 'masharan' Jirga in Darra is a watershed. It could either be the Pak Taliban going again for an all out war with an intensity not seen before, or it could be the Pakistani covert agencies instigating a division within the tribes following the successful Al-Anbar Province example of Iraq. Negraponte's visit is significant in this assumption.

Take your pick.


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Post by pavocavalry on Mar 1, 2008 11:49:31 pm

The Pakistani military mindset

A.H Amin

2nd August 2003



While third world military figures , in power or retired make impressive speeches at various forums and think tanks , very few outside their countries understand their mindset and motivation , which by and large is driven by highly personalized and ulterior motives !



Keeping this premise in view it is important to understand the mindset and the personalities of the third world military juntas , most important in this case being the Pakistani military junta !



The British Indian Army which gave birth to Pakistan and Indian armies in 1947 was essentially a colonial army designed for internal security and limited defence of India against external threats .The British ensured that all Indians who came to this organization were from the politically most docile and loyal classes ! In order to keep the Indian officer corps slavish they kept a 50 % quota for Indian Army rankers in Indian Military Academy Dera Dun right from its foundation in 1930-32 .



Layman readers may note that the “ lower middle class” as well as the “ middle class” by and large are the politically most conservative classes ! Social climbers by orientation , intensely careeristic in outlook and extremely conscious of personal benefits , having none or little of the pride or spirit de corps that made the Prussian junker officer defy Hitler ! In the Russian Civil War many major reactionary White Army leaders including Denikin,Kornilov etc were from humble background ! Similarly all of Pakistan’s military rulers less Yahya Khan were from humble background and all brought with them the intense greed and ambitiousness of a man from humble origins with none of the ideological idealism that distinguishes a man of ideology from a social climber !



Now the mindset of the military junta :--



1- Personal motives having priority over all other motives :-- You would find no Manstein or Guderian in them but highly ambitious men who practiced sycophancy with their seniors , hole punchers in US terms , yes men ,masters of personal manouvre in order to get the right report from the right boss at the right time ! They pleased their seniors and they know how to handle balls of any benefactor may it be Bush or Reagan where aid is concerned ! They have no ideology less personal interest !

2- View Wars and International Geopolitics as a means of personal benefit:-- The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a divine and phenomenal lottery for Pakistan’s military rulers ! Zia the son of a humble tailor , and many of his generals Akhtar etc siphoned millions of US dollars in private accounts , from the US aid meant for Afghanistan ! knowing the Americans well , they must have also earmarked good retainers for Zia and his ISI chief in any case ! Serious observers like Selig Harrison and Cordovez have concluded that the Pakistani military junta never wanted that the Soviets should withdraw from Afghanistan since that would have meant stoppage of US aid ! Similarly 9/11 is a heaven sent opportunity for General Musharraf since it enabled him to get US aid and the much needed US boost to stay in power !

3- Can be coerced and bought if the Bigger players know how to drive them:-- These leaders have price tags and can be manipulated to a significant extent without risking wars like the Iraq war ! This is so because their vision is personal , has none of Khomeini or Osama’s ideological agenda ! Thus if the USA sensibly deals with them with carrot and stick they can be made to conform to US policies !

4- Ulterior motives in prolonging conflicts to get aid :-- These leaders have an ulterior motive that their benefactor super power i.e USA is kept occupied in its war against terror , not because they have any love for Islam , but simply because this would bring them more aid , an important part of which is siphoned into private fortunes ! Thus at a certain covert level these leaders are interested in the terrorist’s cause also ! Thus the third world intelligence agencies have many irons in the fire whether it is initiating a terrorist outrage or encouraging one !

5- Increasing reliance on coercive power of state :-- Since these leaders have little or no contact with national aspirations of their masses , they increasingly rely on the coercive power of the state which leads either to a Shah of Iran like situation or strengthening of a Saddam like totalitarian regime ! In both cases it was the fault and mishandling of US policy makers !

6- Role of the Intelligence agencies :-- To buy judges , to blackmail politicians , to start wars of low intensity to get aid , to manipulate low intensity war players for specific ends to please or disturb their super power benefactors !



Conclusion

The USA is dealing with sharp social climber third world leaders who know how to please and how to practice sophisticated ball lifting ! These men have no ideology and can withstand tremendous amount of kicking as they did while pleasing seniors in their military careers ! It is simpler to deal with these tinpot dictators than Osama or Mullah Omar ! If policy makers in the USA understand this fact their task would be simpler !

I WROTE THIS ARTICLE IN 2003.

NOW I AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT USA'S BELIEF THAT THE COLLABORATOR DOG CATCHER ARMY GENERALS ARE ITS BEST BET IN PAKISTAN AND AGAINST ISLAMISTS IN GENERAL HAS BEEN REINFORCED.

THEY ARE CONSPIRING TO IMPOSE SOME KIND OF SETTLEMENT IN PAKISTAN I.E DEMOCRACY INCLUDING MUSHARRAF.

IF THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN THEY WILL FIND ANOTHER MUSHARRAF IN THE ARMY WHO IS THEIR GOOD SON AND GOOD OLD HOUND FOR DOG CATCHING !

THE CONCLUSION IS THAT USA WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON PAKISTAN'S COLLABORATOR GENERALS WHETHER ITS GENERAL X Y OR Z.THIS SYSTEM WONT CHANGE .IDEALISM WILL COME TO GRIEF.PAKISTAN IS A REALLY HOPELESS STATE.AN UNDOUBTED FAILURE.


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Post by pavocavalry on Mar 1, 2008 11:26:28 pm

I agree with analysis of Zeemax.

The army in Pakistan has immensely lost its military virtue in last 8 years under Musharraf.Its higher commanders have been heavily corrupted and now it sees any democratic government which is fully sovereign as a threat to the generals perks and privileges and rackets.


the musharraf clique will do anything to destabilise the new government.

the key generals still think :--

1-Musharraf is indispensable
2-Both PML N and PPP are a threat to the generals , and the generals think that they are the army - total BS in reality , so anyone who is anti generals is a threat to ideology of Pakistan...hence has to be neutralised or removed.They area also propagating to their US masters that they are the best bet , the old loyal hound , that they are best for dog catching.
3-Two choices are in front of USA.If they want to further destabilise Pakistan they will help the generals or help democracy take its roots in Pakistan.That certainly is not the US choice.Contrary to all propaganda carried out by USA it fears democracy.Thus while it has Pakistan in its pocket because of collaborator generals it cannot manipulate India.....but MORE IMPORTANT because it has Pakistan under its control through the collaborator generals , through this it can influence Indian policy.

Its all a game of grand deception.A body guard of lies.


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Post by zeemax on Mar 1, 2008 10:56:15 pm

As for my personal opinion, musharraf seems to have decided to sabotage the budding democracy yet again. Maybe he still has some 'mukkas' left.


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